研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/3/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,353 | 18 | 0.34% | 50,992 | 474 | 146,785 | 4666 | | SR01 | | 5,480 | 16 | 0.29% | 1,564 | -150 | 8,301 | 553 | | SR05 | | 5,345 | 21 | 0.39% | 353,876 | -23832 | 469,973 | -3366 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | | 5390 | 5200 | 5630 | 53 ...

行业 白糖月报 日期 2026 年 3 月 2 日 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：王海峰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 多空双方都无力感 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 月度报告 近期研究报告 《底漫漫其修远兮》 2025-12-2 《修补基差，郑糖反弹》 2025-11-2 2025-10-8 2025-9-18 《加工糖放量压制国内糖价》 2025-8-2 《巴西数据利多难 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2026 年 2 月 26 日 白糖日报 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 第一部分 数据分析 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/2/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | 5,301 | 34 | 0.65% | 51,265 | 25547 | 137,901 | 9758 | | SR01 | 5,423 | 28 | 0.52% | 1,484 | -15 | 6,647 | 376 | | SR05 | 5,285 | 37 | 0.71% | 341,075 | 166563 | 462,071 | 15849 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | 5380 | 5190 | 5630 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年2月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Covrig Analytics:26/27年度全球糖过剩预计缩减至140万吨，低于25/26年度的470 万吨。Green Pool：预计26/27年度全球糖供应量过剩15.6万吨，低于25/26年度的274万吨。2026 年1月底，25/26年度本期制糖全国累计产糖689万吨；全国累计销糖290万吨；销糖率42.09%。 2025年12月中国进口食糖58万吨，同比增加19万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计6.97万吨，同 比减少12.08万吨。偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势偏不明朗， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年2月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期：春节长假并无重大基本面消息，外盘走势微幅上涨。国内开盘预计延续节前走势，主力 05短期在5200-5300区间震荡整理。 2、基差：柳州现货5360，基差149（05合约），升水期货；中性。 3、库存：截至10月底25/26榨季工业库存79.14万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：20日均线走平，k线在20日均线附近，中性。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空减，主力趋势偏不明朗，偏空。 利多：26/27年度巴西糖产量可能下降。糖浆关税增加。 美国可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年度全球供应过剩。外 糖价格跌至14.5美分/磅附近，进口利润窗口打开，进 口冲击加大。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2026 年 2 月 12 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/2/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | 5,259 | -16 | -0.30% | 14,498 | 1704 | 123,337 | 21 | | SR01 | 5,367 | -13 | -0.24% | 423 | 164 | 4,416 | 175 | | SR05 | 5,254 | -12 | -0.23% | 146,436 | -10732 | 443,331 | -8525 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | 5370 | 5175 | 5620 | 5360 | 5435 | 5430 | 5 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 期货从业证号： 白糖日报 2026 年 2 月 10 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/2/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | 5,288 | 14 | 0.27% | 26,559 | -748 | 123,081 | 2021 | | SR01 | 5,395 | 16 | 0.30% | 726 | -340 | 4,146 | 519 | | SR05 | 5,278 | 17 | 0.32% | 257,845 | 4421 | 458,435 | 4522 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | 5370 | 5175 | 5620 | 5360 | 5435 | 5430 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's key trading point is whether the current sugar price will bottom - out and rebound. The domestic sugar price is likely to follow the international raw sugar price, with limited upward space and significant pressure at the 60 - day moving average [1]. - The 15 - cent level of international raw sugar is difficult to hold. Due to global surplus, the 15.2 - cent cost line of Brazilian sugar may turn into pressure rather than support [1]. - After the stocking season ends, the 3 - 5 spread of sugar futures may decline as the 03 contract faces greater inventory pressure [3]. - The SR2605 contract is more likely to follow raw sugar fluctuations. The 2026 import pressure will increase from May, and the SR2609 contract has greater pressure than SR2605. New opportunities may emerge in the new 01 contract of the new crushing season [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - For the 05 contract, it is at a discount to the Guangxi sugar price but similar to the Brazilian out - of - quota import price, so it is likely to follow the raw sugar price. Currently, domestic sugar demand is average, and the weak international raw sugar price may drag down the domestic sugar price [1]. - The international raw sugar price has fallen below the 14.5 - 15 - cent oscillation range, and the 15.2 - cent cost line may become pressure due to global surplus [1]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The market is in a bottom - grinding phase. Zhengzhou sugar is oscillating narrowly, with significant pressure near the 60 - day moving average, and there is a risk of a post - rebound decline [8]. - There are no new basis and spread strategies. Past strategies include unilateral long SR2511 (stopped), selling spot and buying SR2511 (entered), long SR2511 and short SR2601 (exited), long SR2601 and short SR2605 (profited) [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted monthly sugar price range is 5000 - 5300 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.94% and a historical percentile of 2.2% in the past 3 years [12]. - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high, enterprises can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603) with a 50% hedging ratio at 5300 - 5350 yuan and sell call options (SR603C5400) with a 50% ratio at 35 - 40 yuan to lock in profits and reduce costs [12]. - For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, enterprises can long Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603) with a 25% hedging ratio at 5150 - 5200 yuan and sell put options (SR603P5000) with a 50% ratio at 15 - 20 yuan to lock in procurement costs [12]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: EU's 2026/27 sugar production is expected to drop from 17.1 million tons to about 15.5 million tons due to reduced planting area. Brazil exported about 201,750 tons of sugar in January, a 2.09% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative export from April 2025 to January 2026 was 30.23 million tons, a 7.15% year - on - year decrease [13]. - **Negative Information**: As of February 5, 2026, 50 sugar mills in Yunnan have started crushing, 2 more than the same period last year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of 181,900 tons, 7600 tons more than last year. By late February, all 52 mills will start crushing [14]. As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 Guangxi sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane input was 33.4306 million tons, a decrease of 3.0971 million tons year - on - year; the sugar output was 4.029 million tons, a decrease of 0.788 million tons; the sugar - making rate was 12.05%, a 1.14 - percentage - point decrease; the cumulative sales were 1.5506 million tons, a decrease of 0.8303 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 38.49%, a 10.94 - percentage - point decrease [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Brazil's weekly port waiting - to - ship sugar quantity and the number of ships (Thursday, Beijing time) [17]. - Brazil's weekly sugar export data (Tuesday, Beijing time) [19]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar price oscillated slightly downward last week. The main SR2605 contract fell 0.38% and reduced positions by 52.29 million lots. The largest profitable seat increased short positions, with a net short position of 31,000 lots, and foreign - funded seats increased net short positions slightly to 45,800 lots. Technically, Zhengzhou sugar is in an oscillatory adjustment, with significant pressure near the 60 - day moving average [20]. - The basis structure shows that the cheapest deliverable is at an 8 - yuan discount to the disk, stronger than last week due to the rising import sugar price. The import profit has declined. The domestic spot price is stable, and the domestic cheapest deliverable is at a 78 - yuan premium to the disk [23]. - The 3 - 5 spread has been oscillating since January and rebounded slightly last week. After the stocking season, the spread may decline as the 03 contract has greater inventory pressure [24]. - **International Market**: The raw sugar price fell 0.84% last week, closing at 14.14 cents, breaking the 14.5 - 15 - cent oscillation range. The CFTC non - commercial position maintained a large short position, with a net short position of 182,000 lots, a decrease of 21,000 lots from the previous week [26]. - The raw sugar futures structure is changing to a Contango structure. The 2025/26 production in Thailand decreased by 25% year - on - year, India's production increased by 22%, and Brazil's production increased. The premium of the far - month contract is beneficial for sugar mills to hedge, and there is hedging pressure above 15.2 cents [30]. - **Domestic - International Spread Tracking**: Due to the quota system, the domestic and international sugar prices are related. Currently, the domestic market is strong and the international market is weak, with good import profits. The domestic spot market is stable, and the international market is weak due to supply surplus in the 2025/26 crushing season [32]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - China is a net sugar importer with high production costs, implementing a quota system with a 15% in - quota tariff and a 50% out - of - quota tariff. Recently, due to the falling international price and stable domestic price, the out - of - quota import profit is substantial. The import of syrup and premixed powder is relatively stable [35]. 3.5 Supply and Inventory Deduction - In the 2025/26 crushing season, the overall sugar production is expected to increase slightly to about 11.56 million tons, a 3.56% year - on - year growth, based on the planting area and cane growth. Other data are estimated based on the 2024/25 season and are for reference only [37].

业务咨询 添加客服 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.06」 白糖市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑糖2605合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约0.38%。 行情展望：巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西1月份出口食糖201.75 万吨，同比减少2.09%。巴西2025/26榨季（4月-次年3月）以来截至2026年1月巴 西糖累计出口3023万吨，同比减少7.15%，1月巴西出口糖同比由增转降，供应压 力稍有所减少。国内春节备货结束，销区成交相对清淡，贸易、终端存货意愿不强， 传导销区销量下滑。基本面等待产量预期落地后，价格进行修复。主产区广西、云 南、广东产销数据表现一般，现货价格持稳为主，预计后市郑糖价格窄幅震荡，长 假临近，注意风险控制。 未来关注因素： 1、国内进口 2、需求 3 「 期现市场情况」 本周美糖市场 图1、ICE美糖主力合约价格与CFTC原糖净持仓走势 图2、CFTC美糖非商业净持仓情况 来源：w ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年2月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Covrig Analytics:26/27年度全球糖过剩预计缩减至140万吨，低于25/26年度的470 万吨。Green Pool：预计26/27年度全球糖供应量过剩15.6万吨，低于25/26年度的274万吨。2025 年12月底，25/26年度本期制糖全国累计产糖470.18万吨；全国累计销糖157万吨；销糖率33.39%。 2025年12月中国进口食糖58万吨，同比增加19万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计6.97万吨，同 比减少12.08万吨。偏空。 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年度全球供应过剩。外 ...