Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.88% to 70.07 cents per pound, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 0.03% to 15,385 yuan per ton, with the main contract positions decreasing by 16,089 lots to 515,100 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B increased by 70 yuan to 16,560 yuan per ton. Internationally, due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the crude oil price fluctuated strongly, the U.S. dollar index rose above 100, and the center of the U.S. cotton futures price moved up. The expected reduction in U.S. cotton production in 2026 supported the price. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the market focused more on fundamentals. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decline in 2026, and the far - month contracts are relatively strong. Historically, when domestic and global cotton production and inventory - to - sales ratio decreased year - on - year, the average annual increase of Zhengzhou cotton futures price exceeded 9%, and the peak increase exceeded 25%. As of now, the increase in 2026 is lower than the historical average. Short - term market disturbances are numerous, and the market needs to pay attention to planting intentions and the new round of cotton target price subsidy policy usually announced in early April. It may fluctuate repeatedly in the short term [2]. - Sugar: From March 27th to 30th, 10 more sugar mills in Guangxi completed the sugar - pressing season. As of March 30th, 38 sugar mills in the 2025/26 season in Guangxi had completed the season, with the overall progress over half. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi and Yunnan increased, and the mainstream price of processed sugar also increased. The raw sugar price adjusted downward from the high point last night. There are still risks in crude oil in April, and the sugar - making ratio at the beginning of the Brazilian sugar - pressing season is unstable. The domestic sugar mills in Guangxi and Yunnan are gradually completing the season, with sufficient supply and high inventory. There are both external boosts and domestic supply pressures. The future turning point lies in the import link. The market is shifting positions, and there is no trend - based market in the short term, so it is expected to fluctuate [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 130, up 5; the main contract basis is 1438, up 19. The spot price in Xinjiang is 16,656 yuan per ton, up 3; the national spot price is 16,823 yuan per ton, up 9 [3]. - Sugar: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 23, up 3; the main contract basis is 29, up 33. The spot price in Nanning is 5460 yuan per ton, unchanged; the spot price in Liuzhou is 5470 yuan per ton, up 10 [3]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On March 30th, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 12,435, an increase of 1 compared to the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 371. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions on March 30th were: 16,656 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,812 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,868 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 17,017 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. On March 30th, the comprehensive load of yarn was 58, down 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 16.6, up 0.1; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 60.6, down 0.2; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 23.6, unchanged [4]. - Sugar: On March 30th, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5460 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5470 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts on March 30th was 16,862, an increase of 520 compared to the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 0 [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price indices of the main contracts of cotton and sugar, which can be used to analyze the historical price trends and market conditions of these two commodities [7][9][11][13][15][16][18] 4. Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, who focuses on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy [20][21][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Zheng sugar is expected to oscillate upwards. The K-line has crossed above the long-term moving average, and the moving averages are starting to diverge upwards, showing a trend of a right-side market from a technical perspective. The domestic consumption peak season is approaching, and the rising crude oil price has increased the price of sugar-based ethanol, indirectly supporting the sugar price. Although sugar prices rose and then fell yesterday, the overall trend is advancing three steps and retreating two, with the center of gravity slowly moving up. The main contract is about to shift to the 09 contract, and a short-long strategy can be adopted during rapid intraday declines [4][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In the first half of March, sugarcane crushing in central and southern Brazil decreased by 30% year-on-year. Datagro predicts a sugar shortage of 2.68 million tons in the 26/27 sugar season. ISO expects a global sugar market surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season, down from the previous estimate of 1.63 million tons. Covrig Analytics forecasts that the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 year will shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 million tons in the 25/26 year. Green Pool expects a global sugar supply surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 year, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 year. As of the end of February 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 9.26 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 3.45 million tons; the sales rate was 37.15%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 142,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,470, and the basis is 3 (for the 09 contract), indicating a flat price relative to the futures; neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of February, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar season was 5.81 million tons; neutral [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend. The main position is bearish, with a net short position increase, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - **Factors Affecting the Market**: Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 year, an increase in syrup tariffs, the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose, and the rising crude oil price. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production and the opening of the import profit window, which will increase import impact [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar seasons. For example, ISO expects a surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 season, StoneX predicts a surplus of 870,000 tons, and Green Pool expects a surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 year [4][8][29]. - **Domestic Sugar Production and Sales Data**: As of the end of February 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 9.26 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 3.45 million tons; the sales rate was 37.15%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 142,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - **Sugar Production and Consumption in Different Years**: Data on sugar production, consumption, and other aspects from 2023/24 to 2025/26 are provided, including sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, and import and consumption volumes [31]. - **Imported Raw Sugar Processing Costs**: The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariffs is provided for different dates, including ICE raw sugar closing prices, exchange rates, and costs within and outside the quota [34]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to be in a strong upward trend due to high international oil prices and major sugar - producing countries' downward - adjusted sugar production forecasts. Domestic sugar prices are expected to follow slightly, considering the current low sugar prices and the narrowing gap between domestic and international sugar prices, although there is pressure on the supply side [9] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to go long on Zhengzhou sugar at low prices and close positions at high prices in the short - term. Also, it is suggested to go long on ICE sugar and short on Zhengzhou sugar, and sell put options [10][11][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,467, down 20 (-0.36%), with a trading volume of 251,879 and an increase in open interest of 27,251; SR01 closed at 5,615, down 19 (-0.34%), with a trading volume of 18,810 and an increase in open interest of 4,589; SR05 closed at 5,441, down 23 (-0.42%), with a trading volume of 405,297 and a decrease in open interest of 8,802 [3] - **Spot Market**: In the spot market, the price in Liuzhou was 5,480 with no change, in Kunming was 5,325 with no change, in Wuhan was 5,790 with no change, in Nanning was 5,480 (up 10), in Rizhao was 5,650 with no change, and in Xi'an was 5,920 with no change [3] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis in Liuzhou was 39, in Kunming was - 116, in Wuhan was 349, in Nanning was 39, in Rizhao was 209, and in Xi'an was 479. The SR05 - SR01 spread was - 174 (down 4), the SR09 - SR05 spread was 26 (up 3), and the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 148 (down 1) [3] - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the ICE main contract price was 14.77, the quota - in price was 4,430, the quota - out price was 5,641, the spread with Liuzhou was - 161, the spread with Rizhao was 9, and the spread with the futures price was - 200. For Thai imports, the ICE main contract price was 14.77, the quota - in price was 4,254, the quota - out price was 5,441, the spread with Liuzhou was 39, the spread with Rizhao was 209, and the spread with the futures price was 0 [3] Part 2: Market Judgment - **Important Information**: In the first half of March, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 1.309 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.67%; the sugar production was 0.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 88.60%. As of the first half of March in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 603.667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.21%; the cumulative sugar production was 40.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.71% [5] - As of the end of March, more than half of the sugar mills in Guangxi had completed the sugar - making process. The single - month sugar production in March was expected to be between 1.4 and 1.5 million tons, reaching the second - highest level in the past ten sugar - making seasons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.1 to 1.2 million tons. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi as of the end of March in the 2025/26 sugar - making season was expected to exceed 7 million tons. The single - month sugar sales volume in March was expected to be about 600,000 tons, basically the same as the previous year [6][8] - From March 27th to 30th, 9 more sugar mills in Guangxi completed the sugar - making process, including 4 large - scale sugar mills with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of over 10,000 tons. As of now, 37 sugar mills in Guangxi have completed the sugar - making process in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, 36 less than the previous year [8] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the sugar production increase in India this sugar - making season is likely to be lower than market expectations, and global sugar production forecasts for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 sugar - making seasons have been lowered. Domestically, the domestic sugar market is in the peak crushing period, and the sugar production is likely to increase significantly this sugar - making season, putting pressure on the supply side. However, considering the low sugar prices and the narrowing gap between domestic and international sugar prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to follow slightly [9] - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, international sugar prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be in an upward trend, so it is recommended to go long at low prices and close positions at high prices. For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to go long on ICE sugar and short on Zhengzhou sugar. For the options strategy, it is recommended to sell put options [10][11][12] Part 3: Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of monthly inventory, monthly production, spot prices, price spreads, and basis of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [14][18][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zheng sugar is oscillating upward, with the K - line standing above the long - term moving average and the moving averages starting to diverge upward. Technically, there is a trend of moving into a right - side market. The domestic consumption peak season is approaching, the crude oil price is rising, and the price of sugar - made ethanol is increasing, which indirectly supports the sugar price. The sugar price shows a pattern of advancing three steps and retreating two steps, with the center of gravity slowly rising. The main contract is about to shift to the 09 contract, and the strategy is to go long on short - term pullbacks [5][8]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 3.2 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Datagro forecasts a 268 - thousand - ton sugar deficit in the 26/27 sugar - crushing season. ISO expects a 1.22 - million - ton global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season, down from the previous forecast of 1.63 million tons. Covrig Analytics predicts that the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season will shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool estimates a 156 - thousand - ton global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season, less than the 2.74 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season. As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China is 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales are 2.9 million tons, and the sales rate is 42.09%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder is 142,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5470, and the basis is - 17 (for the 09 contract), indicating a discount to the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of January, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season is 3.99 million tons [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - **Expectations**: Zheng sugar is oscillating upward, with the K - line standing above the long - term moving average and the moving averages starting to diverge upward. The domestic consumption peak season is approaching, the crude oil price is rising, and the price of sugar - made ethanol is increasing, which indirectly supports the sugar price. The sugar price shows a pattern of advancing three steps and retreating two steps, with the center of gravity slowly rising. The main contract is about to shift to the 09 contract, and the strategy is to go long on short - term pullbacks [5][8]. - **Positive Factors**: The sugar production in Brazil may decline in the 26/27 season. The tariff on syrup has increased. American cola has changed its formula to use sucrose. The crude oil price is rising [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The global sugar production is increasing. The import profit window is open, and the import impact is intensifying [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Different Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 and 26/27 seasons. For example, ISO expects a 1.22 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season; StoneX predicts an 870,000 - ton surplus in the 25/26 season; Czarnikow estimates a 6.7 - million - ton surplus in the 25/26 season; Green Pool forecasts a 156,000 - ton surplus in the 26/27 season [4][8][29]. - **Domestic Sugar Production and Sales Data**: As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China is 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales are 2.9 million tons, and the sales rate is 42.09%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder is 142,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - **Sugar - related Price Data**: The import price of raw sugar after processing with 50% tariff, the domestic and international sugar prices, etc. For example, on March 11, 2026, the ICE raw sugar closing price is 14.22 cents per pound, the RMB exchange rate is 6.8749, the in - quota cost is 4015 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5100 yuan per ton [34]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to show a strong trend due to higher international oil prices and major sugar - producing countries lowering their sugar production expectations. Domestic sugar prices are likely to follow slightly, considering the current low domestic sugar prices and the narrowing of the domestic - international price difference. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to have a generally strong trend [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: On March 25, 2026, the closing price of SR09 was 5,461, up 1 (0.02%); SR01 was 5,601, up 12 (0.21%); SR05 was 5,429, unchanged. The trading volume of SR09 was 118,078, a decrease of 1536; SR01 was 6,186, an increase of 193; SR05 was 262,921, a decrease of 7402. The open interest of SR09 was 263,852, an increase of 14,875; SR01 was 27,241, an increase of 2386; SR05 was 318,672, a decrease of 10,177 [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions on March 25, 2026, were as follows: 5480 in Liuzhou, 5320 in Kunming, 5790 in Wuhan, 5470 in Nanning, 0 in Bayuquan, 5650 in Rizhao, and 5920 in Xi'an. All prices remained unchanged. The corresponding basis values were 51, - 109, 361, 41, 0, 221, and 491 respectively [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The SR05 - SR01 spread was - 172, down 12; the SR09 - SR05 spread was 32, up 1; the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 140, down 11 [3] - **Import Profit**: The quota - free import price from Brazil was 5539, with a spread of - 59 compared to Liuzhou and 111 compared to Rizhao, and - 110 compared to the futures price. The quota - free import price from Thailand was 5456, with a spread of 24 compared to Liuzhou and 194 compared to Rizhao, and - 27 compared to the futures price [3] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Important Information - In Guangdong, from March 20 - 24, 2026, 2 more sugar mills in Zhanjiang completed the sugar - pressing season. As of March 24, 12 sugar mills had finished, and 5 were still operating. The last sugar mill is expected to stop production in early April. The total sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be slightly less than the 650,000 tons in the previous season [5] - In Guangxi, on March 24, 1 more sugar mill in Chongzuo completed the sugar - pressing season. As of that day, 27 sugar mills had finished, and 46 were still operating, 45 more than the same period last year. Among the operating mills, nearly 1/3 are large - scale mills with a daily cane - pressing capacity of over 10,000 tons. The total daily cane - pressing capacity of the finished mills is 256,500 tons, 332,500 tons less than last year. Chongzuo has a relatively fast progress, while Liuzhou and Guigang have not had any mills finish yet, with the earliest expected finish time at the end of March [5] - In India, the sugar - making industry in Maharashtra has called on the state and central governments to intervene due to increasing financial pressure. Their main requests include raising the minimum support price of sugar from 31 rupees per kilogram (about 2275 yuan/ton) to 41 rupees (about 3009 yuan/ton), increasing the ethanol production limit from 30% to 50%, and providing a subsidy of 500 rupees per quintal (about 367 yuan/ton). Due to bad weather, the sugarcane yield in this state has decreased by about 15% this year, and the pressing period has been shortened to less than 100 days from the usual 160 days [8] 3.2.2 Logical Analysis - Internationally, the sugar production increase in India in this sugar - pressing season is likely to be lower than market expectations, and global sugar - industry institutions have lowered their sugar production forecasts for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons, which strongly supports international sugar prices [9] - Domestically, China is currently in the peak sugar - pressing season, and sugar production in the 2025/26 season is likely to increase significantly, putting pressure on the supply side. The large sugar imports from January to February have a negative impact on the market, causing short - term price drops. However, considering the current low sugar prices and the narrowing domestic - international price difference, domestic sugar prices are expected to follow slightly [9] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate slightly upwards in the short term. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to have a generally strong trend, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices [10] - **Arbitrage**: Go long on ICE sugar futures and short on Zhengzhou sugar futures [15] - **Options Trading**: Sell put options [15] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple graphs, including monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou's spot sugar prices, price spreads between Liuzhou and Kunming, and various basis and price differences of sugar futures contracts [12][17][21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zheng sugar is expected to oscillate upwards. The K-line has stood above the long-term moving average, and the moving averages are starting to diverge upwards. Technically, there is a trend of moving into a right-side market. With the upcoming domestic consumption peak season, rising crude oil prices, and increasing prices of sugar-based ethanol, the price of white sugar is indirectly supported. The price of white sugar moves forward three steps and retreats two steps, with the center of gravity slowly rising. The main contract is about to shift to the 09 contract. The strategy is to go long on dips [5][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Datagro predicts a sugar deficit of 2.68 million tons in the 26/27 sugar season. ISO expects a global sugar market surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season, down from the previous estimate of 1.63 million tons. Covrig Analytics forecasts that the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season will shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 million tons in the 25/26 season. Green Pool anticipates a global sugar supply surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, down from 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season. As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sales rate was 42.09%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 142,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,470 yuan, and the basis is 10 (for the 09 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of January, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar season was 3.99 million tons [5]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola, and rising crude oil prices. Negative factors include an increase in global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new season, a drop in the price of foreign sugar to around 14.5 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window, which increases import pressure [6]. 3. Today's Focus - No relevant content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar seasons. For example, ISO expects a global sugar market surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 season, StoneX forecasts a surplus of 870,000 tons, and Green Pool anticipates a surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season [4][8][30]. - **Sugar Production and Consumption in China**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, and sugar production have changed. In 2025/26, the estimated sugar production is 11.7 million tons, the import volume is 5 million tons, and the consumption is 15.7 million tons [32]. - **Imported Raw Sugar Processing Costs**: The cost of imported raw sugar processed with a 50% tariff varies with the ICE raw sugar closing price and the RMB exchange rate. For example, on March 11, 2026, the quota - free cost was 4,015 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5,100 yuan per ton [36]. 5. Position Data - No relevant content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to remain in a volatile and slightly upward - trending pattern. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to show a generally upward trend, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, it is recommended to sell put options [9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures盘面**: SR09 closed at 5,460, down 22 (-0.40%); SR01 closed at 5,589, down 31 (-0.55%); SR05 closed at 5,429, down 24 (-0.44%). The trading volume of SR09 was 119,614, a decrease of 42,499; SR01 was 5,993, a decrease of 3,461; SR05 was 270,323, a decrease of 132,250. The open interest of SR09 was 248,977, an increase of 5,812; SR01 was 24,855, an increase of 1,761; SR05 was 328,849, a decrease of 11,829 [3] - **Spot Prices**: In the spot market, the price in Liuzhou was 5,480, down 20; in Kunming was 5,320, down 10; in Wuhan was 5,790, unchanged; in Nanning was 5,470, down 20; in Rizhao was 5,650, unchanged; in Xi'an was 5,920, down 20. The basis in Liuzhou was 51, in Kunming was - 109, in Wuhan was 361, in Nanning was 41, in Rizhao was 221, and in Xi'an was 491 [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The SR05 - SR01 spread was - 160, up 7; the SR09 - SR05 spread was 31, up 2; the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 129, up 9 [3] - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.36, and a freight of 44.25, the in - quota price was 4,299, the out - of - quota price was 5,471, the difference with Liuzhou price was 9, the difference with Rizhao price was 179, and the difference with the futures price was - 42. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 1.20, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4,210, the out - of - quota price was 5,355, the difference with Liuzhou price was 125, the difference with Rizhao price was 295, and the difference with the futures price was 74 [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information** - As of March 24, 2026, 27 sugar mills in Guangxi had completed the sugar - pressing process in the 2025/26 season, with 46 still in operation, 45 more than the same period last year. The daily sugar - cane pressing capacity of the completed mills was 256,500 tons per day, a decrease of 332,500 tons per day compared to the previous year. Sugar mills in Chongzuo and Laibin had relatively fast completion progress, while those in Liuzhou and Guigang had not completed yet, with the earliest completion expected at the end of March [5] - Due to the recent Middle East conflict driving up oil prices, Brazil is expected to divert more sugarcane to ethanol production, leading to a tightening of global sugar supply and higher prices. Indian sugar exports have recovered, with about 100,000 tons contracted, and the total exports in this season are expected to reach 1.5 million tons [6] - On March 24, the spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5,421 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton. The price range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,420 - 5,510 yuan/ton, down 10 - 20 yuan/ton; Yunnan sugar - making groups' price was 5,280 - 5,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream price range of processing sugar mills was 5,680 - 5,890 yuan/ton, down 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The spot trading atmosphere was weak [8] - **Logical Analysis** - Internationally, the sugar production increase in India this season is likely to be lower than expected, and major global sugar institutions have lowered their sugar production forecasts for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons, which supports international sugar prices. Given high international oil prices and lower sugar production expectations in major producing countries, international sugar prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly upward [9] - Domestically, the domestic sugar - pressing season is at its peak, and sugar production is likely to increase significantly this season, putting pressure on the supply side. The large sugar imports from January to February have a negative impact on the market, causing short - term price drops. However, considering the relatively low sugar prices and the narrowing gap between domestic and international prices due to the recent sharp rise in international sugar prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to rise slightly [9] - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side trading**: International sugar prices are expected to be slightly upward in the short term. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to show an upward trend, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices [10] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10] - **Options**: Sell put options [10] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing monthly inventory, monthly production, spot prices, price spreads, and basis of white sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [12][15][19][21][23][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, sugar prices slightly pulled back and then continued to rise. With the sharp increase in crude oil prices, the international raw sugar price index rose, and sugar prices generally maintained a volatile and upward - trending pattern [4]. - In the 26/27 sugar - making season, there is a projected sugar shortage of 268,000 tons. For the 25/26 season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 122,000 tons, down from the previous estimate of 163,000 tons. In the 26/27 season, the global sugar surplus is expected to shrink to 140,000 tons, lower than the 470,000 tons in the 25/26 season [4]. - As of the end of January 2026, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sales rate was 42.09%. From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 142,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - After the Spring Festival, Zhengzhou sugar prices trended upward. The K - line crossed above the long - term moving average, and the moving averages began to diverge upward. Technically, there is a trend of a right - side market. With the upcoming domestic consumption peak season, rising crude oil prices, and increasing sugar - based ethanol prices, sugar prices are indirectly supported. Sugar prices move forward three steps and back two, with the center of gravity slowly rising. The strategy is to go long on short - term dips [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar prices slightly pulled back and then continued to rise. With the sharp increase in crude oil prices, the international raw sugar price index rose, and sugar prices generally maintained a volatile and upward - trending pattern. Zhengzhou sugar prices trended upward after the Spring Festival, with the K - line crossing above the long - term moving average and the moving averages beginning to diverge upward. Technically, there is a trend of a right - side market [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Likely Positive Factors**: In the 26/27 season, Brazilian sugar production may decline; syrup tariffs have increased; the formula of American cola has been changed to use sucrose; crude oil prices have risen [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Global sugar production has increased, and there is a surplus in the new season. The price of foreign sugar has dropped to around 14.5 cents per pound, opening the import profit window and increasing import pressure [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 and 26/27 sugar - making seasons. For example, ISO predicts a 122,000 - ton surplus in the 25/26 season, down from the previous estimate of 163,000 tons; Datagro predicts a 268,000 - ton shortage in the 26/27 season [4]. - **Domestic Production and Sales**: As of the end of January 2026, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 6.89 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons, and the sales rate was 42.09% [4]. - **Import Data**: From January to February 2026, China imported 520,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 142,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32,900 tons [4]. - **Sugar - related Crop Data**: Information on sugar - crop planting area, yield per unit area, and sugar production from 2024/25 to 2025/26, including data on sugarcane and beet, is provided. For example, in 2025/26, the sugar - crop planting area is 1.439 million hectares, and the sugar production is 11.7 million tons [31]. - **Price Data**: The international and domestic sugar prices from 2024/25 to 2025/26 are presented. The international sugar price in 2025/26 is in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [31]. - **Import Cost**: The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff from December 2025 to March 2026 is given. For example, on March 11, 2026, with an ICE raw sugar closing price of 14.22 cents per pound and a RMB exchange rate of 6.8749, the in - quota cost is 4,015 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost is 5,100 yuan per ton [35]. 3.5 Position Data - No relevant information provided

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is "oscillating" [1] - The investment ratings for rubber - related products in the energy and chemical sector are "oscillating" for natural rubber, 20 - numbered rubber, and synthetic rubber [5] Group 2: Core Views - For sugar, the outer - market ICE raw sugar strengthened, and the focus of market trading is the impact of crude oil trends on the new - season sugar - making ratio in Brazil. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar is in a weak reality pattern, and it may enter an oscillating and consolidating situation. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions [1] - For rubber, natural rubber has supply - side support, with a possible inventory inflection point but slow de - stocking. The overseas geopolitical situation is the most uncertain factor. Synthetic rubber has high - level oscillations due to factors such as raw material prices and overseas situations, and its trend may be volatile [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar (Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Sector) Market Quotes - SR605 contract closed at 5406 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.21% and 5415 yuan/ton at night; SR609 contract closed at 5436 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 1.18% and 5442 yuan/ton at night [1] - The ICE raw sugar主力 contract was at 14.47 cents/pound with a daily increase of 2.05% [1] Important Information - The spot price of Guangxi white sugar was 5411 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The price ranges of sugar - making groups in Guangxi and Yunnan and processing sugar factories were adjusted down [1] - As of March 15, the sugar production in major Indian states increased. Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of March decreased by 25% compared to the average daily exports in March of the previous year [1] - Thailand's sugar - making industry called for the promotion of E20 ethanol gasoline. The number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged [1] Market Logic - Outer - market: The ICE raw sugar strengthened. The impact of crude oil on Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio is the trading focus, and short - term attention is on the support around 14.1 cents/pound [1] - Inner - market: Zhengzhou sugar was weak. After the expected trading ended, the weak reality of domestic white sugar dragged down the price, and it may oscillate [1] Trading Strategy - Take partial profit on long positions. SR605 should focus on the 5350 - 5500 activity range and the support performance at 5400 today [1] Rubber (Energy and Chemical Sector) Market Quotes - As of March 17, the closing prices of RU, NR, and BR主力 contracts decreased by 0.41%, 0.19%, and 0.86% respectively [5] Important Information - The prices of Thai raw material glue, cup rubber, and Yunnan rubber blocks were reported. The inventory in Qingdao decreased by 0.42%, with different changes in bonded and general - trade inventories [5] - The prices of various rubber products such as whole latex, 20 - numbered Thai standard rubber, and 20 - numbered Thai mixed rubber changed. The price of butadiene - styrene rubber decreased, while the price of cis - butadiene rubber was stable [5] Market Logic - Natural rubber: It oscillated and declined slightly at night. There is supply - side support, and the inventory inflection point may have come, but the de - stocking is slow. The overseas geopolitical situation is the most uncertain factor, and it is in an upward channel [5] - Synthetic rubber: BR oscillated at a high level. The supply of butadiene has no obvious increase, and the downstream acceptance is limited. Due to high raw material prices, some suppliers reduced production. The war situation makes the trend volatile [5] Trading Strategy - Long positions in RU and NR should focus on the support at the lower edge of the channel; long positions in BR can consider partial profit - taking [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zheng sugar has been oscillating upward after the Spring Festival. The K-line has stood above the long-term moving average, and the moving averages are starting to diverge upward. Technically, there is a trend of moving out of the right-side market. The domestic consumption peak season is approaching, the crude oil price is rising, and the price of sugar-made ethanol is increasing, which indirectly supports the white sugar price. The white sugar trend moves forward three steps and retreats two steps, with the center of gravity slowly rising. The short-long strategy can be adopted when the price drops during the session [5][9]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Datagro predicts a sugar deficit of 2.68 million tons in the 26/27 sugar season. ISO expects a global sugar market surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season, down from the previous estimate of 1.63 million tons. Covrig Analytics forecasts that the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 year will shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 million tons in the 25/26 year. Green Pool estimates a global sugar supply surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 year, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 year. As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season in China was 6.89 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons; the sugar sales rate was 42.09%. The estimated sugar imports in China from January to February 2026 were 400,000 - 500,000 tons; in December 2025, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 69,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 120,800 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,480, and the basis is 74 (for the 05 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of January, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar season was 3.99 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: The sugar production in Brazil may decline in the 26/27 year. The tariff on syrup has increased. Coca-Cola in the United States has changed its formula to use sucrose. The crude oil price is rising [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The global white sugar production has increased, and there is a surplus in the new year. The price of foreign sugar has fallen to around 14.5 cents per pound, the import profit window has opened, and the import impact has increased [7]. 3. Today's Focus - No relevant content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions in the Past 3 Months for the 25/26 Season**: The International Sugar Organization predicts a production of 181.29 million tons, consumption of 180.07 million tons, and a supply surplus of 1.22 million tons in February 2026, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the November prediction. StoneX forecasts a production of 194.6 million tons, consumption of 193.7 million tons, and a supply surplus of 870,000 tons in March 2026, a significant 70% decrease from the February prediction. Czarnikow estimates a production of 184.4 million tons, consumption of 177.7 million tons, and a supply surplus of 6.7 million tons in March 2026, a decrease of 700,000 tons from the previous estimate. Green Pool predicts a supply surplus of 2.74 million tons in early March 2026. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts a production of 189.3 million tons, consumption of 177.9 million tons, and a surplus in February 2026 [31]. - **Sugar Production and Related Data in China from 2023/24 to 2025/26**: The sugarcane planting area, sugar beet planting area, sugarcane yield per hectare, sugar beet yield per hectare, sugar production, sugar imports, sugar consumption, and other data are provided. For example, in the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, and consumption is 15.7 million tons [33]. - **Cost of Imported Raw Sugar after Processing and Tax Payment (50% Tariff)**: The ICE raw sugar closing price, RMB exchange rate, in-quota cost, and out-of-quota cost from December 2025 to March 2026 are presented. For example, on March 11, 2026, the ICE raw sugar closing price was 14.22 cents per pound, the RMB exchange rate was 6.8749, the in-quota cost was 4,015 yuan per ton, and the out-of-quota cost was 5,100 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5].