Core Viewpoint - Baosteel Packaging is a leading player in the high-end metal packaging sector for fast-moving consumer goods in China, focusing on the production of metal beverage cans and printed tin packaging [1] Group 1: Business Performance - For Q3 2025, Baosteel Packaging reported revenue of 6.581 billion yuan, ranking second among seven companies in the industry, with the top company, Orijin, generating 18.346 billion yuan [2] - The main business segments include metal beverage cans, contributing 4.137 billion yuan (96.79% of revenue), and printed tin packaging, contributing 137 million yuan (3.21% of revenue) [2] - The net profit for the same period was 192 million yuan, ranking third in the industry, below the average net profit of 225 million yuan [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, the asset-liability ratio was 51.07%, lower than the previous year's 55.52% and below the industry average of 55.10%, indicating improved debt repayment capability [3] - The gross profit margin was 7.43%, down from 8.37% year-on-year and below the industry average of 11.84% [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders increased by 4.63% to 32,900, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder decreased by 4.43% [5] - The top ten circulating shareholders included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which became a new shareholder with 8.3093 million shares [5] Group 4: Management Compensation - The chairman, Cao Qing, received a salary of 1.7743 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 169,800 yuan from 2023 [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - According to Tianfeng Securities, Baosteel Packaging's revenue for Q2 2025 was 2.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with a net profit of 45 million yuan, up 20% [5] - The company is focusing on capacity expansion and optimizing its business layout, with ongoing projects in Anhui and Xiamen [5] - Guotou Securities projects that Baosteel Packaging will rank second in domestic two-piece can production in 2024, with expected revenues of 8.494 billion yuan, 9.671 billion yuan, and 10.294 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a target price of 6.42 CNY, while the current stock price is 4.77 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company maintains a strong position as a leader in the metal packaging industry, with gradual improvements in overseas expansion efforts [2][8]. - The company has optimized its product structure and overseas business layout, enhancing its core competitiveness and operational efficiency [2][8]. - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth, with projected revenues of 88.21 billion CNY, 94.76 billion CNY, and 101.71 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 6.05%, 7.42%, and 7.34% [8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 8.318 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.19%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 172 million CNY, a decrease of 21.13% [1]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 2.158 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.00%, with a net profit of 15 million CNY, down 6.04% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.002 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.02%, with a net profit of 57 million CNY, up 2.67% year-on-year [1]. Product and Market Analysis - The company’s revenue from metal beverage cans and printed iron packaging in 2024 was 7.858 billion CNY and 447 million CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.22% and a decline of 7.36% [2]. - The company’s overseas revenue reached 2.377 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.78%, while domestic revenue was 5.928 billion CNY, with a growth of 1.27% [2]. - The company’s metal beverage can sales volume increased by 13.82% to 16.813 billion cans in 2024, although the average price per can decreased by 5.0% to 0.47 CNY [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 8.10%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 2.30%, down 0.83 percentage points year-on-year [3][8]. - In Q1 2025, the company’s gross margin was 7.06%, a decline of 1.32 percentage points year-on-year, but the net margin improved to 3.21%, an increase of 0.10 percentage points year-on-year [3][8]. - The company’s operating expenses ratio for 2024 was 4.00%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved cost management [3].