机构：辉立证券(香港) 研究员：章晶 公司簡介 吉利汽車是我國自主品牌乘用車領軍企業之一，主營乘用車及核心零部件的研發、生產和銷售，自主掌 握汽車領域核心技術，廣泛佈局主流車型市場。公司旗下產品包括吉利、幾何、領克、極氪、睿藍、銀 河六大子品牌，覆蓋A0 至C 級乘用車市場。 投資概要 上半年業績強勁，核心淨利同比翻番 吉利汽車公佈2025 年中期業績，2025 年上半年的總收入達到 1502.8 億元（人民幣，下同），同比 +26.5%，創歷史新高；歸母淨利潤92.9 億元，同比-13.9%；如果剔除外匯匯兑收益、減值虧損及2024 年視為出售附屬公司之收益後，核心歸母利潤為 66.6億元，同比+102%。 第二季度單季度，公司實現營業收入777.9 億元，同/環比分別+28.4%/+7.3%；我們測算扣除匯兑收益及 一次性收益影響後的核心歸母淨利潤約31.8 億元，同/環比分別+127%/-8.7%。 新能源車銷量快速增加，占比超50% 上半年公司累計總銷量達到140.9 萬輛，同比+47.4%，遠高於同期國內乘用車行業+13%的銷量同比增 速。其中，新能源車累計72.5 萬輛，同比+126.5%，占比5 ...

二季度业绩逐步加速，净利润创单季度历史新高 恒立液压(601100) 证券研究报告 工程机械 / 公司点评 / 2025.08.26 核心观点 | 盈利预测 | | --- | 投资评级:增持(维持) | 基本数据 | 2025-08-25 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 83.80 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 13.41 | | 每股净资产(元) | 12.22 | | 总股本(亿股) | 13.41 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -5% 17% 39% 61% 83% 104% 恒立液压 沪深300 分析师 佘炜超 SAC 证书编号：S0160522080002 shewc@ctsec.com 分析师 张豪杰 SAC 证书编号：S0160522090002 zhanghj01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《液压泵阀份额持续提升，线性驱动新品 逐步放量》 2025-04-29 2. 《三季度业绩稳健增长，非标油缸及泵阀 保持较快增长》 2024-10-29 3. 《非标油缸及泵阀较快增长，二季度业绩 超预期》 2024-08-27 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimp ...

Core Viewpoint - Longbai Group reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, impacted by anti-dumping measures and a strategic shift towards overseas expansion [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.342 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.385 billion yuan, down 20% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 6.282 billion yuan, a decline of 4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 699 million yuan, down 9% [1]. - Revenue from titanium dioxide and sponge titanium businesses was 8.7 billion yuan and 1.5 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -8% and +13% [1]. Pricing and Sales Dynamics - The average price of titanium dioxide decreased by 12% year-on-year, while the average price of sponge titanium increased by 3% [1]. - The company produced 690,000 tons of titanium concentrate, all for internal use [1]. - The export volume of titanium dioxide was 420,000 tons, down 14% year-on-year and 17% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion strategy in response to anti-dumping duties affecting exports, with preliminary site selection and resource integration underway [1]. - Longbai Group is enhancing its upstream raw material supply by advancing key projects, including the joint development of the Hongge North Mine and the Xujia Gou Iron Mine, aiming for an annual titanium concentrate capacity of 2.48 million tons and iron concentrate capacity of 7.6 million tons [2]. Shareholder Confidence - The company plans to repurchase shares using its own funds and a special loan of 500 to 1,000 million yuan, with a total repurchase amount of approximately 25.48 million yuan, reflecting confidence in long-term development [2]. Future Profit Projections - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.91 billion yuan, 3.76 billion yuan, and 4.29 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining a "recommended" investment rating [3].

Summary of the Conference Call for Chuanjinnuo Company Overview - Chuanjinnuo's total assets as of the first half of 2025 are 3.669 billion, with total liabilities of 1.029 billion and equity attributable to shareholders of 2.640 billion, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 28.5% [2][3] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue composition for the first half of 2025: - Phosphoric acid: 52% - Feed-grade calcium salt: 24% - Phosphate fertilizer: 22% - Contribution to gross profit: - Phosphate fertilizer: 1.16 billion, 43% - Phosphoric acid: 870 million, 31% - Calcium salt: 730 million, 26% [2][4] Production and Sales Performance - Production and sales figures for the first half of 2025: - Repeated heavy calcium: 163,000 tons produced, 141,000 tons sold - Feed-grade calcium salt: 108,000 tons produced, 106,000 tons sold - Purified phosphoric acid (PPA): 83,000 tons produced, 79,000 tons sold - Crude phosphoric acid: 150,000 tons produced, 139,000 tons sold [2][6] Project Developments - A 300,000-ton phosphorus pentoxide project in Egypt with a total investment of 2 billion is progressing smoothly [2][7] - The East River temporary high solid waste treatment project has a total investment of 300 million [2][7] - The domestic approval for the Egypt project has been completed, with construction expected to start in the first half of 2026 [5][16] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.744 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.9% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 177 million, a year-on-year increase of 166% [3] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The East River base operates at approximately 70% capacity, while the Guangxi base is running at full capacity [8] - The income and profit ratio between the two bases is approximately 2:1, with East River having a lower comprehensive cost by about 600 per ton compared to Guangxi, but higher transportation costs prevent it from exporting commodity-grade products [8] Export and Market Dynamics - The export ratio is approximately 60%, with domestic sales being minimal [5][9] - The company aims to avoid signing orders that require inspection due to new regulations [9] Market Conditions - Sulfur prices have risen significantly due to international supply-demand imbalances, with speculation also contributing to price increases [18] - The company sources about 80% of its sulfuric acid needs from self-produced sulfur and external procurement [19] Future Outlook - The company does not plan significant changes in domestic capacity but will focus on IP projects for future growth [20] - There are no immediate plans for overseas phosphorus resource acquisition, but future considerations may arise [29] Additional Insights - The company’s feed additive performance is stable, with expectations for consistent annual results [22] - The construction cycle in Egypt is expected to be 1.2 to 1.5 times longer than in China, but the simpler design of the first phase may allow for completion within two years [34] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of Chuanjinnuo's current status, performance, and future plans.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The World Robot Conference showcased over 1,500 robot products, indicating a growing interest and innovation in robotics [3]. - The photovoltaic industry chain prices remain stable, with expectations for continued price stability in the near term [6][7][8][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations - Preferred stocks include: - Aishuo Co., Ltd. (600732.SH) - Buy - B - Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) - Buy - B - Daqian Energy (688303.SH) - Buy - B - Fulete (601865.SH) - Buy - A - Hengdian East Magnetic (002056.SZ) - Buy - A - Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) - Buy - A - Canadian Solar (688472.SH) - Buy - A - Deyang Co., Ltd. (605117.SH) - Buy - A - Langxin Group (300682.SZ) - Buy - B - Quartz Co., Ltd. (603688.SH) - Buy - A [2]. Market Trends - The multi-crystalline silicon price is stable at 44.0 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease in transaction volume compared to the previous week [6]. - The silicon wafer prices remain unchanged, with N-type silicon wafers priced at 1.20 CNY/piece for 182-183.75mm and 1.35 CNY/piece for 182*210mm [7]. - Battery cell prices are stable, with N-type battery cells priced at 0.290 CNY/W for 182-183.75mm and 0.285 CNY/W for 182*210mm [8]. - Module prices are also stable, with TOPCon double-glass modules priced at 0.685 CNY/W and N-type HJT modules at 0.830 CNY/W [9]. Policy and Regulatory Developments - The National Energy Administration is establishing a "green channel" for large-scale wind and photovoltaic bases to better meet the needs of new energy development [5]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law, focusing on price behavior norms and regulatory mechanisms [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in the market and operational adjustments [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.8% year-on-year, with net profit down 40.2% to 560 million yuan [4]. - Q2 2025 revenue was 7.61 billion yuan, reflecting a smaller decline of 5.6% compared to Q1 [5]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.925 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.7% [4]. Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - Retail channel revenue in H1 2025 was 5.06 billion yuan, down 7.0%, while the engineering channel generated 6.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.3% [5]. - The company continues to reduce direct sales, with revenue from this segment falling 28.0% to 2.04 billion yuan [5]. - Domestic revenue was 12.99 billion yuan, down 12.3%, while overseas revenue grew by 42.2% to 580 million yuan [5]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 25.4%, down 3.8 percentage points, attributed to price declines and changes in product mix [6]. - The company maintained cost control, with selling, general, and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue decreasing [6]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 4.0%, down 2.1 percentage points, impacted by credit impairment losses of 430 million yuan [6]. Group 4: Global Expansion and Capacity Building - The company is accelerating its global layout, focusing on overseas production capacity and acquisitions [7]. - Recent acquisitions include a Hong Kong building materials retailer and a Chilean building materials supermarket [7]. - Ongoing projects include production and logistics bases in Houston, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia, enhancing the international supply chain [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company [4] Core Views - The company is experiencing temporary pressure on performance, but continues to optimize its channel structure and overseas layout [9] - The waterproofing industry is a stable growth segment within the building materials sector, with increasing industry concentration [9] - The company is actively expanding its non-waterproof and overseas businesses, highlighting its competitive advantages as an industry leader [9] Financial Summary - For 2023, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 32,823 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2,273 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [1] - The company anticipates a significant rebound in net profit for 2025, reaching 1,296 million yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of 1,098.2% [1] - The operating income for the first half of 2025 is reported at 135.69 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.84% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is 5.64 billion yuan, down 40.16% year-on-year [1][2] - The company’s gross margin and net margin for the first half of 2025 are 25.40% and 4.03%, respectively, showing a decline of 3.82 and 2.08 percentage points year-on-year [2] Channel and Retail Business - The company’s engineering and retail channel revenues totaled 114.06 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for 84.06% of total revenue, indicating an increase in channel revenue proportion [3] - Retail business revenue reached 50.59 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.98% year-on-year, but its revenue share increased by 1.54 percentage points [3][8] - The company is enhancing its retail business through the integration of its construction coating retail segment and the establishment of a C-end service brand [8] Overseas Expansion - The company is advancing its overseas layout with multiple initiatives, including the construction of bases in Houston, Saudi Arabia, Canada, and Malaysia [8] - The focus is on optimizing costs and enhancing service capabilities in North America and Europe [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience in its civil construction business while accelerating its overseas expansion [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 13.57 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 10.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 560 million yuan, down 40.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company is actively pursuing channel transformation and consolidating its waterproofing main business while exploring new growth avenues in mortar and overseas markets [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue breakdown for the first half of 2025: - Waterproof membranes: 5.513 billion yuan, down 8.8%, gross margin 22.6%, down 5.2 percentage points - Coatings: 3.946 billion yuan, down 17.1%, gross margin 36.5%, down 1.0 percentage points - Mortar powder: 1.996 billion yuan, down 6.2%, gross margin 26.6%, down 0.87 percentage points - Engineering construction: 849 million yuan, down 32.3% [2]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.4%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 4.0% for the first half of 2025, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Cash Flow and Dividend - As of June 30, 2025, the company's accounts receivable totaled 11.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.3% year-on-year, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to 4.57 billion yuan [3]. - The company announced a mid-year dividend plan of 9.25 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 2.21 billion yuan [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.206 billion yuan, 1.427 billion yuan, and 1.461 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.8, 20.1, and 19.7 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market-A" for the solar industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - In June, the domestic photovoltaic new installed capacity decreased by 38.4% year-on-year, influenced by the end of the rush for installation. The new installed capacity in June was 14.4GW, with a cumulative new installed capacity of 212.21GW from January to June, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 107.1% [2][13]. - The export value of photovoltaic components in June was 15.81 billion yuan, down 23.3% year-on-year and 8.7% month-on-month. The cumulative export value from January to June was 95.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.9% year-on-year [2][17]. - The export value of inverters in June was 6.59 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.2% and a month-on-month increase of 10.3%. The cumulative export value from January to June was 30.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [3][30]. - Solar power generation in June increased by 18.3% year-on-year, with a total generation of 50.06 billion kWh, accounting for 6.29% of the total industrial power generation in the country [2][44]. Summary by Sections Installed Capacity - In June, the domestic photovoltaic new installed capacity was 14.4GW, down 38.4% year-on-year and 84.5% month-on-month. The cumulative new installed capacity from January to June was 212.21GW, up 107.1% year-on-year [13][2]. Exports - The export value of photovoltaic components in June was 15.81 billion yuan, down 23.3% year-on-year and 8.7% month-on-month. The cumulative export value from January to June was 95.37 billion yuan, down 23.9% year-on-year [17][2]. - The export value of inverters in June was 6.59 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% and a month-on-month increase of 10.3%. The cumulative export value from January to June was 30.6 billion yuan, up 7.6% year-on-year [30][3]. Power Generation - In June, solar power generation was 50.06 billion kWh, reflecting an 18.3% year-on-year increase and accounting for 6.29% of the total industrial power generation in the country [44][2]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include: - New technology direction: Aisuo Co., Longi Green Energy - Supply-side improvement direction: Daqian Energy, Fulete - Overseas layout direction: Hengdian East Magnet, Sunshine Power, Canadian Solar, Deye Co. - Power marketization direction: Langxin Group - Domestic substitution direction: Quartz Co. - Additional companies to actively monitor include: Xinyi Solar, GCL-Poly Energy, Tongwei Co., TCL Zhonghuan, New Special Energy, Dier Laser, Foster, Haiyou New Materials, JA Solar, Trina Solar, Jinko Solar, CITIC Bo, Maiwei Co., Jingcheng Machinery, Shanghai Ailuo, and Guangxin Materials [48][2].

Group 1: Impact of External Factors - The company's business has been affected by frequent adjustments in tariff policies, but its diversified sales market and customer structure provide strong resilience against trade dispute risks [2] - The company has been actively building overseas production bases, allowing for greater flexibility in responding to tariff changes [2][3] - Exchange rate fluctuations primarily impact the company's import and export trade, with USD being the main currency for transactions [3] Group 2: Financial Strategies and Shareholder Returns - The company emphasizes shareholder returns and plans to continue providing stable and sustainable returns to investors [3] - The company is focused on enhancing its supply chain services and aims to strengthen its core business capabilities for sustainable development [4] Group 3: Operational Challenges and Talent Management - The main bottleneck for the company's development is the lack of talent, particularly those with international operational capabilities [3] - The company has established various employee incentive mechanisms, including performance-based compensation and employee stock ownership plans [4] Group 4: Innovation and Design - The Guotai Innovation Design Center is being developed in Shanghai, which will support recruitment and innovation activities [3] - The company has established marketing and design centers in key international markets to enhance customer service and increase trade value [4]