期货市场与实体经济之间存在着紧密的联系，其价格发现功能不仅为实体经济提供了对未来供需情况预 判的前瞻性指标。同时也为观察经济周期、分析经济结构的变化以及制定经济政策提供了重要参考依 据。本次获奖课题，详细介绍了卷螺差、螺纹沥青比、金油比、铜油比以及沪伦比值的经济意义及其在 定位经济周期，制定经济政策方面的参考作用，力争为构建一个工业品价差体系，助力宏观经济研判提 供方向。 近日，上期所公布了2025年《期货与金融衍生品》征文活动评选结果，凭借着对于宏观经济周期和工业 品价差与宏观经济关系的深入研究，东海期货撰写的《见微知著-基于工业品价差助力宏观经济研判的 实证分析》荣获二等奖。 荣誉的获得既是对东海期货研究能力的肯定，更是对公司持续探索期货市场价格发现功能，以更好的服 务服务实体企业风险管理的有利证明。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategy of going long on the gold-oil ratio has been repeatedly mentioned since last year, and the recent surge in the gold-oil ratio confirms the accuracy of previous strategy recommendations. The strong performance of gold is driven by increasing uncertainties in the U.S. and weakening economic indicators, while oil faces downward pressure due to OPEC's production recovery and deteriorating macroeconomic sentiment [3][4][6]. Group 1: Gold-Oil Ratio Performance - The gold-oil ratio has reached a new high this year, validating the previous strategy of going long on this ratio [4]. - The recent strength in the gold-oil ratio is attributed to the accumulation of uncertainties, particularly influenced by frequent policy statements from Trump, leading to heightened economic uncertainty and signs of economic weakness in the U.S. [6][8]. - The S&P 500 volatility index has been hitting new highs, reflecting increased risk aversion and driving gold prices higher [6][8]. Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Following OPEC's announcement to restore production in April, oil prices faced significant downward pressure, nearing new lows since 2022, as sanctions on Iran did not lead to a noticeable reduction in supply [6][8]. - The weakening demand in the U.S. has contributed to a downward adjustment in global oil demand growth [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The gold-oil ratio is expected to continue rising due to potential geopolitical events, particularly as Trump may exert pressure on countries like Iran, which could introduce new geopolitical variables and risk premiums for gold [10]. - Despite recent temporary declines in inflation, the ongoing interest rate cut cycle suggests a possibility of renewed inflation speculation, which could benefit gold's anti-inflation properties [12]. - OPEC's production recovery is set to restart in April, with an estimated increase of about 150,000 barrels per day, potentially leading to structural oversupply starting in Q2 [13][14].