类别 宏观市场月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 9 日 宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 美联储降息利多环球股市 请阅读正文后的声明 月度报告 近期研究报告 《宏观专题-20250918-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析（三）》 《宏观专题-20250821-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析(二)》 《宏观专题-20250815-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析(一)》 《宏观专题-20250724-从 CIP 指数 观察中国制造业的国际竞争力》 宏观专题-20250306-特朗普 2.0 新 政阶段性回顾：回归保守价值观、 回归丛林法则》 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pricing dynamics in the commodity market, driven by domestic supply policies for lithium and silicon, and the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve affecting precious metals and copper [4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The market is currently pricing in a potential 75 basis points (bp) cut by the Federal Reserve within the year, with expectations for consecutive cuts in the upcoming FOMC meetings [6]. - Factors contributing to the optimistic outlook for rate cuts include a shift in the Federal Reserve's decision-making approach, the weakening U.S. labor market, and political pressures from the Trump administration [7][8]. - The long-term interest rate target may be adjusted downwards, providing more room for monetary policy adjustments, with current expectations for long-term rates around 2.8%-2.9% [8]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Landscape - The article highlights that inflation may ease next year, influenced by the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve and the impact of tariffs on core commodity inflation [11][13]. - The Zillow rent index shows a significant decline, which may indicate a lagging effect on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and overall inflation trends [11]. - Despite the weakening labor market, there remains confidence in a soft landing for the U.S. economy, with no immediate signs of a severe downturn [15][16]. Group 3: Commodity Market Outlook - Precious metals are expected to have upward elasticity during the rate-cutting cycle, while copper and other base metals may follow suit if the U.S. economy shows signs of improvement [5][16]. - The article suggests that the valuation of commodities will depend on the Federal Reserve's terminal rate outlook and the anticipated adjustments in economic growth rates [16][17]. - There is a notable preference for gold in overseas markets, with domestic silver showing good upward potential, influenced by macroeconomic drivers [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide a clear industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US Treasury bonds still face many challenges. Although the 10-year yield of US Treasury bonds once touched the 4% mark, due to the fragile fiscal balance, judicial challenges to tariffs, and the inertia of inflation in the US, the Fed should be cautious when loosening monetary policy to avoid the risk of re - inflation [4][13]. - The growth of domestic household loans continues to slow down. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of household RMB loans and household RMB medium - and long - term loans decreased, while the government bond stock maintained a relatively high growth rate. The impact of this part of social financing on medium - and long - term bond interest rates may not be significant [4][17]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - **US Treasury Bond Situation**: In August, the US PPI was lower than expected, and the non - farm payroll employment data was significantly revised down. The 10 - year yield of US Treasury bonds once touched 4%. However, considering the fragile fiscal balance (the average fiscal deficit ratio of the US government in the past 4 quarters as of the second quarter of this year was about 6.3%, still higher than the pre - pandemic level), judicial challenges to tariffs, and the inertia of inflation (the commodity inflation in the US showed a rebound momentum in August, and the downward trend of service inflation stagnated), caution should be exercised when the 10 - year yield of US Treasury bonds reaches or is lower than 4% [4][13]. - **Domestic Household Loan Situation**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic household RMB loans was about 2.4%, and that of household RMB medium - and long - term loans was about 3.3%, both lower than the previous month. The government bond stock increased by 21.1% year - on - year [4][17]. - **High - Frequency Data Changes**: This week (the week of September 12, 2025), the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.14% week - on - week and decreased by 26.31% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index decreased by 0.14% week - on - week and 21.17% year - on - year; the edible agricultural product price index increased by 0.80% week - on - week and decreased by 12.29% year - on - year. The Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 1.22% and 1.87% week - on - week respectively; the LME copper spot price increased by 0.54% week - on - week, and the LME aluminum spot price increased by 1.18% week - on - week. The domestic cement price index decreased by 0.53% week - on - week, the Nanhua iron ore index increased by 2.61% week - on - week, the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 3.57% week - on - week, the rebar inventory increased by 3.90% week - on - week, and the rebar price index decreased by 0.11% week - on - week. From September 1 - 10, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 196,000 square meters, lower than the 229,000 square meters in September 2024 [4]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison The document mainly presents various charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, etc., but does not provide a detailed text summary or conclusion [22]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe The document shows charts related to US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, PCE, and the Fed's and ECB's implied interest rate adjustment prospects, but there is no specific text analysis [91]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data The document presents the seasonal trends of various high - frequency data through charts, including the production of crude steel, production material price index, etc., but there is no detailed text description [106]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen The document shows charts of the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, but there is no corresponding text analysis [163].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a slower pace of interest rate cuts has significant implications for global markets, presenting both challenges and opportunities [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy and Economic Outlook - Powell's recent statements indicate a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, suggesting that the U.S. economy does not currently signal an urgent need for rate reductions [2]. - Positive economic indicators, such as a 0.4% month-on-month increase in October retail sales, support the Fed's optimistic outlook [3]. - The labor market remains robust, with initial jobless claims data showing improvement, indicating that previous non-farm payroll weaknesses were likely temporary [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Cut Predictions - Market predictions suggest a significant slowdown in the Fed's rate-cutting pace, with expectations of only two rate cuts in 2025 instead of four, leading to a terminal rate of 3.75%-4.0% [5]. - The anticipated rate cuts include a 25 basis point reduction in December, followed by similar cuts in the first and second quarters of 2025 [5]. - The Fed's cautious stance is attributed to the current economic data being relatively strong, contrasting with past aggressive rate cuts during economic downturns [5]. Group 3: Global Market Reactions - The slowdown in rate cuts may alter the trajectory of U.S. stock markets, particularly affecting high-valuation stocks reliant on low interest rates [6]. - Emerging markets may experience reduced foreign capital inflows due to the Fed's tempered rate-cut expectations, although those with strong fundamentals may still attract investment [6]. - Changes in the U.S. Treasury yield curve are anticipated, with long-term bond yields potentially stabilizing or rising as rate cut expectations diminish [6]. Group 4: Currency and Commodity Impacts - The dollar's strength is likely to be reinforced, putting pressure on other currencies and potentially leading to depreciation in emerging market currencies [7]. - A strong dollar may negatively impact the prices of dollar-denominated commodities, creating additional challenges for commodity-exporting countries [7]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor Fed policy changes and global economic data to adjust their investment strategies accordingly [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overweight interest rate bonds and gold, moderately allocate credit bonds, blue - chip stocks, and crude oil, and under - allocate growth stocks and currency [4][54] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's leadership in the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system is mostly framed. The Sino - US trade deadlock may continue, the Fed may restart the interest - rate cut process, and China may shift its focus from stabilizing growth to adjusting the economic structure. The macro - environment is relatively favorable for risk assets such as stocks and industrial commodities, slightly favorable for precious metals, and unfavorable for government bonds. However, the A - share market has internal adjustment risks, and bonds may have periodic opportunities [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 January - August Macro - market Review - From November 2024 to mid - January 2025, the "Trump trade" boom made the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and US stocks rise, while overseas assets were under pressure. From mid - January to March, the US dollar and US Treasury yields weakened as Trump's reforms caused risks in the US, and overseas assets became more attractive. In early April, Trump's high - tariff announcement triggered a global financial tsunami, followed by a 90 - day suspension. In May, China increased counter - cyclical adjustments, and the global risk appetite gradually recovered from late April to June. Since July, global risk assets have continued to rise, and safe - haven assets have been suppressed [4][6] 3.2 Macro - environment Review 3.2.1 China's External Demand Shows Resilience but Domestic Demand Weakens Across the Board - In July, China's domestic demand weakened due to the diminishing effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus and international trade frictions. However, external demand remained resilient. Investment growth slowed down in multiple sectors, consumption growth declined, industrial output growth weakened, the real - estate market showed mixed signals with high inventory, prices continued to fall, CPI was stable with some fluctuations, PPI continued to decline, new social financing increased, and exports grew due to multiple factors [7][10][19] 3.2.2 New Policies Impact the US Economy into Stagflation - Trump's radical reforms have disrupted the US economic and social order. In July, US employment data deteriorated significantly, the labor participation rate decreased, the unemployment rate increased, inflation showed a complex situation with core CPI rising and some commodity inflation pressures easing, and consumer confidence was affected by trade policies [21][23][26] 3.2.3 China Increases Counter - cyclical Support Policies - In August, China adjusted real - estate policies in core cities, introduced personal and service - sector consumption loan subsidy policies. From January to July, China's fiscal stimulus was strong, but it also led to a rapid increase in the debt - leverage ratio [27][29][34] 3.2.4 The Fed Hints at Restarting the Interest - rate Cut Process - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson - Hole meeting hinted at a possible interest - rate cut in September. The market has high expectations for rate cuts this year. Trump is trying to increase his influence on the Fed. In 2026, the Fed's rate - cut pace may slow down based on economic fundamentals, but Trump's influence may accelerate it [35][36][37] 3.3 Asset Market Analysis - China's Treasury bond yields are expected to be weak in the second half of 2025, with a core range of 1.5 - 2% for the 10 - year bond. US Treasury bond yields are likely to remain high and fluctuate, with a core range of 4 - 5% for the 10 - year bond. The US dollar index is expected to decline first and then rise, with a core range of 95 - 105. The RMB exchange - rate index may be under pressure, and the RMB against the US dollar may depreciate. Global stock markets have risen this year, but the A - share market has internal adjustment risks. Commodities are likely to maintain a high - level and wide - range oscillation [42][46][51] 3.4 Medium - term Asset Allocation - From January to August 2025, Chinese stocks, currency, commodities, and bonds had different growth rates. The international trade and monetary system restructuring and domestic liquidity environment have affected asset prices. Based on the current situation, it is recommended to over - allocate interest - rate bonds and gold, moderately allocate credit bonds, blue - chip stocks, and crude oil, and under - allocate growth stocks and currency [52][53][54]

Core Viewpoint - China Metallurgical Group Corporation (China MCC) has seen its stock price increase by over 6%, currently at HKD 2.22, with a trading volume of HKD 125 million. The company reported a decline in new contract value for the first seven months of 2025 compared to the previous year, but a significant increase in overseas contracts [1][1][1]. Group 1: Company Performance - China MCC's new contract value for January to July 2025 is RMB 611.34 billion, representing an 18.5% decrease year-on-year [1]. - The company secured overseas contracts worth RMB 61.26 billion, which is a 38.0% increase compared to the same period last year [1]. Group 2: Resource and Market Outlook - China MCC is recognized as a key resource enterprise, with significant reserves in nickel, cobalt, lead, zinc, and copper [1][1]. - According to Caitong Securities, as of the end of 2024, the company has mineral reserves of 1,795 thousand tons of copper, 184.2 thousand tons of nickel, 64.29 thousand tons of zinc, 32.11 thousand tons of lead, and 20.9 thousand tons of cobalt [1][1]. - The demand for copper, nickel, and cobalt is expected to remain strong due to the steady development of downstream industries such as electricity and new energy [1][1]. - The company has two pending production mines with a copper reserve of 16.14 million tons, which are anticipated to contribute significantly to performance once operational [1].

Group 1 - China Metallurgical Group Corporation (China MCC) shares rose over 6%, currently up 6.22% at HKD 2.22, with a trading volume of HKD 125 million [1] - For the period from January to July 2025, the company signed new contracts worth RMB 611.34 billion, a decrease of 18.5% compared to the same period last year [1] - The new overseas contracts amounted to RMB 61.26 billion, representing a growth of 38.0% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - China MCC is recognized as a key resource enterprise by the state, with significant reserves in nickel, cobalt, lead, zinc, and copper [1] - As of the end of 2024, the company has mineral reserves of 1,795 thousand tons of copper, 184.2 thousand tons of nickel, 64.29 thousand tons of zinc, 32.11 thousand tons of lead, and 20.9 thousand tons of cobalt [1] - The demand for copper, nickel, and cobalt products is strong due to the steady development of downstream industries such as electricity and new energy, which is expected to enhance the profitability of the company's resource segment [1] Group 3 - The company has two pending production mines with copper reserves of 16.14 million tons, which are expected to contribute significantly to performance once operational [1]

Group 1 - As of the end of October 2024, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.26 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $55.3 billion from the previous month [1][7] - The increase in the US dollar index by 3.1% in October led to a valuation decline of China's foreign reserves, with an estimated $40 billion drop attributed to dollar appreciation [7][10] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 47 basis points to 4.28%, contributing to the downward pressure on global asset prices and China's foreign reserves [4][7] Group 2 - The attractiveness of RMB assets to foreign investors has significantly increased, supported by recent policy measures that have positively impacted the stock market [8] - China's exports have shown strong resilience, bolstered by new growth drivers such as cross-border e-commerce, which is expected to support the stability of foreign reserves [12] - The central bank's current strategy involves a cautious approach to increasing gold reserves, maintaining a stable gold reserve of 72.8 million ounces since May, as gold prices remain high [3][14]

Group 1 - The global financial market is experiencing a critical turning point due to the dual linkage of interest rates and exchange rates, reshaping investment patterns [1][3] - The U.S. dollar index is showing high volatility, with non-U.S. currencies under significant pressure, leading to notable differentiation in international capital flows [1][3] - Following a shooting incident involving U.S. presidential candidate Trump, his probability of winning surged by 10 percentage points to 70%, causing a short-term spike of 0.8% in the dollar index [1] Group 2 - The U.S. June PPI data has intensified concerns about persistent inflation, while the Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 66.0, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum [3] - The combination of stubborn inflation and weakening growth has placed the Federal Reserve in a "hawkish pause" dilemma, limiting further rate hikes [3] - The European Central Bank has signaled a potential rate cut in September, while the Bank of Japan slightly adjusted its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy, contributing to the volatility of the dollar index [3] Group 3 - The XBIT decentralized exchange platform has seen a 217% increase in the use of cross-market hedging tools, reflecting a heightened demand for risk management among investors [1][3] - The platform's smart contracts allow for real-time hedging across U.S. stocks, foreign exchange, and crypto assets, reducing potential losses for users by an average of 18% [3] Group 4 - According to the China Foreign Exchange Administration, domestic residents have an annual foreign exchange purchase limit of $50,000, which is prohibited for overseas securities investment [5] - The second quarter data shows that the scale of domestic quantitative private equity has shrunk to 780 billion yuan, with some funds shifting to compliant cross-border investment channels [5] - XBIT has developed an aggregated trading function to support users in dynamically assessing comprehensive costs related to cross-border investments [5] Group 5 - The number of new U.S. stock accounts opened in the second quarter of 2025 increased by 23% year-on-year, with Asian investors surpassing 40% for the first time [8] - The value of overseas securities held by Chinese individual investors has exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan, with nearly 60% allocated to U.S. stocks, highlighting the importance of global asset allocation [8] - The rise of fintech platforms like XBIT has lowered the barriers for cross-border investment, but rational decision-making and disciplined operations remain crucial for investors [8]

Group 1 - The "Beautiful America Act" signed by the US President aims to significantly reduce taxes, increase defense spending, and cut social welfare and new energy subsidies, indicating a potential shift in fiscal policy [8][17][18] - The US labor market shows signs of resilience with a non-farm employment increase of 147,000 in June, surpassing expectations, but the private sector added only 74,000 jobs, highlighting underlying weaknesses [16][17][18] - In China, the "anti-involution" policy is expected to synchronize with market-driven forces, impacting industries like photovoltaic, refining, and steel, which may affect upstream raw material prices [8][10] Group 2 - The energy storage industry is experiencing a rebound after a period of decline, with demand expected to surge in emerging markets, particularly in China, the US, and Europe [11][13][14] - The global energy storage demand is projected to grow significantly, with China's cumulative installed capacity expected to reach 137.9 GW by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 59.4% [13][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of core drivers for energy storage installations, including consumption, profitability, and reliability of electricity supply, with extreme weather and geopolitical events increasing backup power demand [12][14] Group 3 - The A-share market shows mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,472 points, facing resistance at the 3,500-point level, while the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices experienced declines [27][28] - The gaming sector led the market with a 1.65% increase, while sectors like energy metals and wind power equipment saw declines, indicating sector-specific volatility [29][30] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring market liquidity and interest rates, with the 10-year Chinese government bond yield declining to 1.6433% [34]