又见"特朗普交易"？ "马杜罗被抓"竟成印钞机！ 上周六刚刚新建账号本周五下注、周日爆赚超1200% 又见"特朗普交易"？ "马杜罗被抓"竟成印钞机！ 上周六刚刚新建账号本周五下注、周日爆赚超1200% 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 ...

2025.12.18 本文字数：1977，阅读时长大约3分钟 调查显示，投资者已将资金投入股票和大宗商品，42%受访基金经理透露增持了全球股票，比例为2022 年以来最高水平。但这种过于乐观的情绪，也令一些市场人士担心负面事件可能带来的冲击。 全球投资者乐观情绪录得2021年来最高水平 尽管最近几周，由于对美国大型科技公司高估值的紧张情绪重燃，导致美股在此前触及历史新高后有所 动摇。但综合评估持有现金水平、股票配置比例和对全球增长预期，调查显示，全球基金经理正处于自 2021年中期以来最乐观的时期，甚至超过了2024年底"特朗普交易"高点时期。当时，投资者纷纷涌入美 股和美元，因为期待特朗普将出台一系列对市场友好的政策。调查还显示，基金经理对全球企业利润的 预期也处于2021年以来的最高水平，基于这种强劲盈利增长预期，也更愿意看涨股市。 巴克莱银行的欧洲股票策略主管考（Emmanuel Cau）称："全球投资者目前显然对2026年持更积极的态 度，对多项资产，尤其全球股市的头寸也有所上升。" 这种乐观情绪似乎确实蔓延在各大机构之间。富达国际全球多元资产主管奎夫（Matthew Quaife）在接 受第一财经专 ...

本文字数：1977，阅读时长大约3分钟 2025.12. 18 这种乐观情绪似乎确实蔓延在各大机构之间。富达国际全球多元资产主管奎夫（Matthew Quaife） 在接受第一财经专访时就表示，"当美联储降息周期仍在持续时，市场上的一些风险通常不会发生。 无论从AI领域发展，还是从美股上市企业盈利角度来衡量，明年可能会是一个投资回报率相当高的 年份。" 作者 | 第一财经 封图 | 新华社资料图 美国银行对基金经理进行的一项调查显示，12月全球基金经理投资组合中的平均现金持有率从11月 的3.7%降至3.3%，创下1999年调查开始以来的最低水平。 调查显示，投资者已将资金投入股票和大宗商品，42%受访基金经理透露增持了全球股票，比例为 2022年以来最高水平。但这种过于乐观的情绪，也令一些市场人士担心负面事件可能带来的冲击。 全球投资者乐观情绪录得2021年来最高水平 尽管最近几周，由于对美国大型科技公司高估值的紧张情绪重燃，导致美股在此前触及历史新高后有 所动摇。 但综合评估持有现金水平、股票配置比例和对全球增长预期，调查显示，全球基金经理正 处于自2021年中期以来最乐观的时期，甚至超过了2024年底" ...

光期研究 2026 年有色金属 策略报告 光大期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 2026 年度策略报告 目录 铜：乘 AI 风起 审慎乐观 ........................... 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 铝：渐入佳境 铝有乾坤 ........................... 36 镍&不锈钢：破而后立 蛰伏待机 ............ 65 2026 年度策略报告 铜：乘 AI 风起 审慎乐观 有色研究总监：展大鹏 年报摘要： 风险提示 基本面：COMEX 铜溢价大幅转向、大型铜矿投产或复产提前落地、新 能源领域不及预期； 宏观面：美联储政策突然转向风险、日央行连续加息风险以及美股科技 股泡沫破灭风险； 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 2026 年度策略报告 2025 年行情回顾 2025 年，LME 铜价重心上移，伦铜波动区间在 8105.5-11334 美元/吨， 年结算均价约在 9834 美元/吨，较去年上涨 5.6%；沪铜主力合约波动区 间在 71320-89920 元/吨， ...

奎夫认为，AI投资带来的影响已经切实可见。 2025年末，市场再度频现波动与疲软。 近期随着美联储降息预期分歧以及流动性收缩，风险资产和避险资产一度同步下跌，美国私募股权市场 频繁暴雷等。过去多年领涨美股的科技股和人工智能（AI）概念股也由于市场的"AI泡沫"担忧而遭遇抛 售。特朗普政策对市场影响仍存不确定性。2026年，市场波动性是否会有所改善？ 近日，富达国际全球多元资产主管马修·奎夫（Matthew Quaife）就美联储降息前景、美国经济的走向等 热点话题接受了第一财经的采访。 美联储降息路径不变 本月稍早，美股、美债、加密货币、黄金等各类资产一度集体遭遇抛售。对此，奎夫表示，市场最近一 次调整在很大程度上是由流动性驱动的技术性调整，而且调整通常从边缘市场开始，所以调整会始于比 特币等加密货币，随后蔓延至黄金市场，最后再到股票市。"这种由流动性驱动的技术性调整就像液 体，从更具投机性的市场端向市场核心滚滚而去。这类情况经常发生，尤其在每年第四季度，我们此前 甚至预期调整将更早发生。因此，我们并不特别担心近期的市场调整。"他说道。 "美联储降息前景并未改变，明年仍会持续降息，市场也将迎来一个更'鸽派'的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated return of a loose monetary policy in the U.S. and its implications for the dollar index and the RMB exchange rate, highlighting the impact of employment data and government policies on currency movements [2][5][28]. Group 1: Dollar Index Trends - In the first three quarters of 2025, the dollar index showed a trend of decline followed by stabilization, with a significant drop of over 10% in the first half of the year due to concerns over U.S. economic stability and soft employment data [2][5]. - The dollar index stabilized in the second half of 2025 after the U.S. reached tariff agreements with trade partners, reducing market concerns about economic stability [2][5]. - The article predicts that the dollar index may break below its long-term upward trend line in 2026, entering a new phase as the market adjusts to a potentially lower interest rate environment [16][28]. Group 2: Employment Market and Monetary Policy - The U.S. employment market is showing signs of weakness, with PMI employment components consistently below 50 since April 2025, indicating a reduction in hiring across various sectors [6][7]. - The article suggests that the softening employment market may trigger a return to loose monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve likely to lower interest rates to support job growth [5][11]. - The influence of the U.S. government on the Federal Reserve is expected to increase, potentially leading to more aggressive rate cuts if a pro-Trump candidate is appointed as the next Fed chair [11][29]. Group 3: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB appreciated approximately 3.2% against the dollar as of November 28, 2025, following a period of depreciation due to tariff pressures [19][21]. - The article attributes the RMB's strength to a combination of internal and external factors, including a restructuring of the international monetary system and improved resilience in China's financial markets [21][27]. - It is anticipated that the RMB will continue to appreciate moderately against the dollar in 2026, supported by a favorable external environment and the ongoing internationalization of the RMB [28][33]. Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - The article identifies several risks that could affect the dollar and RMB exchange rates, including potential government shutdowns, tariff rate fluctuations, and increased volatility in risk assets [12][13]. - The upcoming U.S. midterm elections and political changes in other countries may also contribute to market volatility, impacting currency valuations [12][13]. - The article notes that the preference of the Trump administration for a weaker dollar could further support non-dollar currencies, including the RMB [29][30].

Core Insights - The speculative assets directly related to Trump and his family have suffered significant losses, with Trump's media company stock down 75% and associated cryptocurrencies experiencing declines of 86% to 99% [1][3][4] - The market's speculative enthusiasm has cooled, leading to a broader sell-off of risk assets, including meme stocks and unprofitable tech companies [4][5] - Investors are shifting their focus from political speculation to actual company performance and fundamental risks, undermining previous optimistic expectations [3][4] Company Performance - Trump's media and technology group, which operates "Truth Social," has seen its stock price plummet, reflecting a broader trend of declining speculative investments [3][5] - The stock of the Trump media company has a staggering price-to-sales ratio of 1240, indicating extreme overvaluation prior to the downturn [5] - The performance of various sectors has been mixed, with healthcare stocks rising while regional banks and private prison stocks have lagged due to economic slowdown concerns [5][6] Market Trends - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, has faced a harsh sell-off, dropping 30% in less than two months, impacting Trump's business ventures in the crypto space [6] - Gold has emerged as a strong performer, with prices nearing $4200 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 60% increase this year as investors seek safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty [5][6] - The upcoming release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to shift investor focus towards inflation and interest rate outlooks [7][8]

"特朗普交易"突然崩了。 近期，"特朗普交易"遭遇重创，自美国总统特朗普就职以来，特朗普媒体与科技集团（DJT） 股价累计跌幅已达75%；以特朗普和"第一夫人"梅拉尼娅命名的"模因币"累计跌幅分别高达 86%、99%。另外，加密货币市场的剧烈动荡也波及了特朗普商业版图。有分析指出，市场 投机情绪普遍降温，投资者正从政治概念炒作转向关注企业实际业绩和基本面风险。 目前，美股市场关注的焦点正转向下周即将公布的美联储首选通胀指标——美国9月个人消费 支出价格指数（PCE）。高盛在最新发布的报告中指出，美联储12月降息已成定局，基于劳 动力市场疲软趋势和风险管理需求，此时降息是正确政策选择 。 01 全线暴 跌 曾被市场热捧的"特朗普交易"正遭遇重创。美东时间11月29日，《华尔街日报》报道，自特 朗普就职以来，运营其社交平台"Truth Social"的特朗普媒体与科技集团股价已累计暴跌 75%。 以特朗普和"第一夫人"梅拉尼娅命名的"模因币"累计跌幅分别高达86%、99%。 另外，特朗普家族涉足的另一个加密货币项目，一个名为"World Liberty Financial"的代 币，自9月推出以来也下跌了约40% ...

Group 1 - The "Trump trade" is facing significant losses, particularly for assets directly associated with Trump and his family, with the Trump Media & Technology Group's stock down 75% since his inauguration [1] - The meme coins named after Trump and Melania have seen declines of 86% and 99% respectively since the inauguration, while another cryptocurrency project linked to the Trump family has dropped about 40% since its launch in September [1] - The sell-off of these assets coincides with a broader decline in speculative market enthusiasm, affecting various risk assets including Bitcoin and AI-related stocks [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in speculative sentiment is not limited to Trump-related assets; a basket of unprofitable tech stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs has fallen 21% from mid-October to November 21 after an earlier surge [3] - The Trump Media & Technology Group has a staggering price-to-sales ratio of 1240, indicating a significant market correction [4] - Despite the downturn in certain sectors, healthcare stocks have risen, and major Wall Street banks like Goldman Sachs have performed well, while regional banks lag behind due to economic slowdown concerns [5][6] Group 3 - Gold has emerged as a winner amid market turmoil, with prices around $4200 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 60% increase this year as investors seek safe-haven assets [6] - Bitcoin has faced a harsh sell-off, dropping 30% in less than two months after a strong rally, impacting the Trump business ventures heavily invested in the cryptocurrency [6] - The macroeconomic outlook remains mixed, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which could stabilize market sentiment [10]

Group 1 - The "Trump trade" has faced significant setbacks, with the Trump Media & Technology Group's stock price dropping 75% since Trump's inauguration, and meme coins named after Trump and Melania experiencing declines of 86% and 99% respectively [1][2] - The cryptocurrency market has been volatile, impacting Trump's business ventures, including a token called "World Liberty Financial," which has fallen approximately 40% since its launch in September [2] - Investor sentiment has shifted from political speculation to focusing on actual corporate performance and fundamental risks, leading to a decline in previously optimistic expectations regarding Trump's policies [2][3] Group 2 - The stock of Trump Media & Technology Group has a staggering price-to-sales ratio of 1240 times, indicating extreme valuation concerns amid a broader market cooling [3] - A basket of unprofitable tech stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs has seen a 21% decline from mid-October to November 21, reflecting a broader market correction that has caught many retail investors off guard [4] - Despite the downturn in the "Trump trade," certain sectors like healthcare and European defense stocks have performed well, while U.S. regional banks lag behind due to economic growth concerns [5] Group 3 - Investors are now focusing on the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, which could stabilize market sentiment [6][7] - Market pricing indicates an over 86% probability of a rate cut in December, reflecting a consensus that such a move is necessary given the softening labor market [6][7] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the U.S. inflation rate will remain manageable, with potential economic growth supported by fiscal policies, although short-term labor data may present risks [8]