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指南针(300803):新增客户数同比高增,下半年订单弹性可期
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-28 05:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in new customer acquisition, with a strong expectation for order elasticity in high-end products in the second half of the year. The total revenue and net profit for H1 2025 were 935 million and 143 million yuan, respectively, representing a year-on-year increase of 71.6% and a turnaround from losses. The Q2 figures were 393 million and 4 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 28% and 97%, but a year-on-year increase of 56% and a return to profitability, aligning with expectations. The financial information services revenue and securities services (excluding investments) grew by 60% and 120% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a strong synergy and growth potential [5][6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 935 million yuan, with a net profit of 143 million yuan, marking a significant recovery from previous losses. The Q2 results showed a revenue of 393 million yuan and a net profit of 4 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 56% [5][6]. - The financial information services revenue reached 680 million yuan in H1 2025, up 60% year-on-year, while sales cash flow was 720 million yuan, an increase of 47% [6]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 420 million, 640 million, and 980 million yuan, respectively, indicating a year-on-year growth of 306%, 51%, and 53% [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 218.0, 144.0, and 94.1 times, respectively [8][11]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 87.3% in 2023 to 93.7% by 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 6.5% to 23.8% over the same period [8][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 4.1% in 2023 to 25.8% in 2027, reflecting improved profitability [8][11].