1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, copper prices were suppressed by both macro - negative factors and geopolitical conflicts. The US - Iran conflict pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations, reversed the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and strengthened the US dollar index, suppressing copper prices. The main contract of Shanghai copper hit a low of 91,500 yuan/ton. Although the price rebounded slightly in the second half of the month, the overall market sentiment remained weak [6][10][54]. - The current core logic of the market lies in the game between macro - negative factors and positive fundamentals. Geopolitical conflicts and high oil prices continue to suppress macro - sentiment, while the acceleration of domestic de - stocking provides a certain safety cushion for copper prices [6][54]. - Looking ahead to April, copper prices are expected to continue the weak - shock pattern. If the conflict is not effectively alleviated, it is difficult to be optimistic about copper prices. However, the fundamentals will limit the downside space of copper prices [6][54]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In March, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a high - level shock and decline. At the beginning of the month, it was supported by domestic macro - favorable policies and policy expectations, but then was suppressed by overseas geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and a stronger US dollar. In the second half of the month, the price dropped rapidly, breaking through the 100,000 - yuan mark and reaching around 91,500 yuan. The position also declined, and market attention decreased [10]. - In terms of price structure, the basis and monthly spread of domestic copper strengthened in March, mainly due to inventory de - stocking caused by downstream restocking [13]. 3.2 Macro Analysis 3.2.1 Decline in Overseas Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - In the first quarter, the market's expected probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in 2026 decreased rapidly. At the end of March, the expected probability of an interest - rate cut was less than 10%, and there were even expectations of a rate hike. The main reason was the tense US - Iran situation, rising oil prices, and increasing inflation expectations [17]. 3.2.2 Domestic Macro - easing and High - quality Industrial Development - In March, domestic macro - policies continued the easing tone. The "Two Sessions" set the economic growth target for 2026 at around 5%. Fiscal policies accelerated the issuance of special bonds, and monetary policies maintained reasonable liquidity [19]. - China plans to improve the copper resource reserve system, including expanding the national strategic reserve and exploring commercial reserves. The national power grid's 4 - trillion - yuan investment plan during the "15th Five - Year Plan" will provide long - term support for copper demand [20]. 3.3 Industry Analysis 3.3.1 Continuous Disturbances at the Mine End - In January 2026, global copper mine production increased by about 2.2% year - on - year. However, in March, there were production disturbances at the mine end. For example, the Garpenberg copper mine in Sweden was affected by earthquakes, and the Kennecott copper mine in the US had a safety accident and stopped production [21][24]. 3.3.2 Marginal Easing of the Domestic Mine End - As of March 20, the inventory of copper concentrates at seven major domestic ports was 312,900 tons, a significant decrease compared with the end of February and the same period last year. The spot processing fee (TC) was in the negative range, hitting a new low since September 2007 [25][26]. 3.3.3 Abundant Domestic Electrolytic Copper Supply - In January 2026, global refined copper production increased by about 1% year - on - year. China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) had a combined output growth of about 5%. In February 2026, domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons. From January to February, the cumulative import of electrolytic copper decreased by 33.13% year - on - year [30][34][36]. 3.3.4 Seasonal De - stocking of Domestic Electrolytic Copper - As of March 20, 2026, the global exchange inventory was 1.3473 million tons, an increase compared with the previous month and the same period last year. Overseas inventory continued to rise, while domestic inventory was in the process of seasonal de - stocking [39][41]. 3.3.5 Downstream Terminals - In March, the downstream terminal consumption showed a moderate recovery but fell short of expectations. - Power grid: It is the largest consumption area, and the investment showed strong growth. However, due to high copper prices, the release of new orders was slow [49][50]. - New energy: The photovoltaic and wind power sectors showed a differentiated trend. The growth of photovoltaic installation slowed down, while the wind power sector maintained steady growth [51]. - Real estate: The real estate industry was still at the bottom. The three core indicators continued to decline, negatively affecting copper consumption. The home appliance industry was affected by the Spring Festival and policy factors, with mixed performance [52]. - Transportation: The automotive industry, especially new - energy vehicles, was an important support for consumption. Although the production and sales of new - energy vehicles decreased year - on - year, the penetration rate remained high, and exports were strong [53].