1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, copper prices were suppressed by both macro - negative factors and geopolitical conflicts. The US - Iran conflict pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations, reversed the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and strengthened the US dollar index, suppressing copper prices. The main contract of Shanghai copper hit a low of 91,500 yuan/ton. Although the price rebounded slightly in the second half of the month, the overall market sentiment remained weak [6][10][54]. - The current core logic of the market lies in the game between macro - negative factors and positive fundamentals. Geopolitical conflicts and high oil prices continue to suppress macro - sentiment, while the acceleration of domestic de - stocking provides a certain safety cushion for copper prices [6][54]. - Looking ahead to April, copper prices are expected to continue the weak - shock pattern. If the conflict is not effectively alleviated, it is difficult to be optimistic about copper prices. However, the fundamentals will limit the downside space of copper prices [6][54]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In March, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a high - level shock and decline. At the beginning of the month, it was supported by domestic macro - favorable policies and policy expectations, but then was suppressed by overseas geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and a stronger US dollar. In the second half of the month, the price dropped rapidly, breaking through the 100,000 - yuan mark and reaching around 91,500 yuan. The position also declined, and market attention decreased [10]. - In terms of price structure, the basis and monthly spread of domestic copper strengthened in March, mainly due to inventory de - stocking caused by downstream restocking [13]. 3.2 Macro Analysis 3.2.1 Decline in Overseas Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - In the first quarter, the market's expected probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in 2026 decreased rapidly. At the end of March, the expected probability of an interest - rate cut was less than 10%, and there were even expectations of a rate hike. The main reason was the tense US - Iran situation, rising oil prices, and increasing inflation expectations [17]. 3.2.2 Domestic Macro - easing and High - quality Industrial Development - In March, domestic macro - policies continued the easing tone. The "Two Sessions" set the economic growth target for 2026 at around 5%. Fiscal policies accelerated the issuance of special bonds, and monetary policies maintained reasonable liquidity [19]. - China plans to improve the copper resource reserve system, including expanding the national strategic reserve and exploring commercial reserves. The national power grid's 4 - trillion - yuan investment plan during the "15th Five - Year Plan" will provide long - term support for copper demand [20]. 3.3 Industry Analysis 3.3.1 Continuous Disturbances at the Mine End - In January 2026, global copper mine production increased by about 2.2% year - on - year. However, in March, there were production disturbances at the mine end. For example, the Garpenberg copper mine in Sweden was affected by earthquakes, and the Kennecott copper mine in the US had a safety accident and stopped production [21][24]. 3.3.2 Marginal Easing of the Domestic Mine End - As of March 20, the inventory of copper concentrates at seven major domestic ports was 312,900 tons, a significant decrease compared with the end of February and the same period last year. The spot processing fee (TC) was in the negative range, hitting a new low since September 2007 [25][26]. 3.3.3 Abundant Domestic Electrolytic Copper Supply - In January 2026, global refined copper production increased by about 1% year - on - year. China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) had a combined output growth of about 5%. In February 2026, domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons. From January to February, the cumulative import of electrolytic copper decreased by 33.13% year - on - year [30][34][36]. 3.3.4 Seasonal De - stocking of Domestic Electrolytic Copper - As of March 20, 2026, the global exchange inventory was 1.3473 million tons, an increase compared with the previous month and the same period last year. Overseas inventory continued to rise, while domestic inventory was in the process of seasonal de - stocking [39][41]. 3.3.5 Downstream Terminals - In March, the downstream terminal consumption showed a moderate recovery but fell short of expectations. - Power grid: It is the largest consumption area, and the investment showed strong growth. However, due to high copper prices, the release of new orders was slow [49][50]. - New energy: The photovoltaic and wind power sectors showed a differentiated trend. The growth of photovoltaic installation slowed down, while the wind power sector maintained steady growth [51]. - Real estate: The real estate industry was still at the bottom. The three core indicators continued to decline, negatively affecting copper consumption. The home appliance industry was affected by the Spring Festival and policy factors, with mixed performance [52]. - Transportation: The automotive industry, especially new - energy vehicles, was an important support for consumption. Although the production and sales of new - energy vehicles decreased year - on - year, the penetration rate remained high, and exports were strong [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The exemption of import tariffs on electrolytic copper in the US will change the global copper trade pattern, and the copper resources flowing to Europe and Asia will increase. The domestic copper market fundamentals are expected to weaken in August, with demand dropping to the annual low and inventory starting to rise. The copper price is expected to face short - term pressure, but the downside space is limited. The copper price may reach the second high of the year in the fourth quarter [8][113]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Global Macro and Copper Market - China's economy showed good performance in the first half of the year, with GDP growth exceeding expectations. Policy support may enter a vacuum period in the third quarter. The domestic copper demand is expected to decline to a relative low in the third quarter, and the demand in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter. In the US, the manufacturing industry showed a phased contraction in the third quarter, and the overseas macro situation is expected to be bearish for copper prices in August [11][14][18]. 3.2 Copper Supply Situation Analysis - **Mine End**: The global copper mine supply was relatively loose in the second quarter, but the annual growth rate is expected to be low. The supply of copper concentrates is still tight, and the supply gap in 2025 is expected to exceed 1.1 million metric tons. The tight supply at the mine end has not yet affected the smelting end, and the domestic refined copper production has reached a new high. However, the constraints on electrolytic copper production are increasing, and the production is expected to decline in the second half of the year [23][30][39]. - **Recycled Copper**: The supply of recycled copper resources remains tight, which will restrict the domestic electrolytic copper production [46]. - **Import and Export**: The US's exemption of import tariffs on electrolytic copper will end its siphoning effect on global copper resources. The domestic smelting plants' export willingness will decline, and the domestic supply will increase [50]. 3.3 Copper Demand Situation Analysis - **Copper Products**: The domestic copper products output reached a record high in the first quarter and declined in the second quarter. The copper demand is expected to be weak in August and better in the fourth quarter. The annual output of copper products is expected to increase by more than 3% year - on - year [55]. - **Sub - sectors**: The output of refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper bars, and copper strips is expected to decline in August. The output of copper foil has increased against the trend, and the demand for new energy vehicles and power grid investment will continue to support copper demand [58][74][87]. 3.4 Copper Inventory Change Analysis - The global copper inventory showed a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with prominent structural contradictions. After the US exempted import tariffs on electrolytic copper, the global copper trade pattern will change, and the non - US copper supply will be relatively loose, suppressing copper prices [93]. 3.5 Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance - The global refined copper supply - demand structure was tight in 2025, with a supply gap of more than 1.1 million metric tons. The supply gap is expected to narrow gradually from 2026 [97]. 3.6 Copper Position Analysis - The total position of COMEX copper futures and options first rose and then fell in the first half of the year, and started to increase in July. The net long position showed an upward trend, and the capital's driving effect on copper prices was still obvious [104]. 3.7 Arbitrage Analysis - The Shanghai - London copper ratio is expected to remain volatile in August. The copper - zinc ratio is expected to continue to rise in the second half of the year [109]. 3.8 Copper Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - The copper market fundamentals are expected to weaken in August, and the copper price will face short - term pressure. The downstream demand side is advised to slow down the pricing rhythm, and traders holding spot resources are advised to participate in selling hedging operations. The support range for the Shanghai copper main contract price is expected to be 77,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is expected to be 79,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [113].