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吉利汽车(00175):8月销量点评:销量增长势能持续,公司经营持续向上
Huachuang Securities· 2025-09-04 12:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Geely Automobile with a target price of HKD 26.04, indicating an expected upside of 39% from the current price of HKD 18.73 [6][10]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile's sales momentum continues, with August 2025 wholesale sales reaching 250,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 38% and a month-on-month increase of 5.2% [2][10]. - The company reported a revenue of CNY 150.3 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27%, and a core net profit of CNY 6.7 billion, which is a 100% increase year-on-year [2][10]. - The company has adjusted its 2025 sales target from 2.71 million units to 3 million units, driven by strong performance in its Galaxy brand and the launch of new models [10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to CNY 353.5 billion, CNY 449.7 billion, and CNY 530.1 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 47%, 27%, and 18% respectively [10]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: The net profit estimates for the same period have been adjusted to CNY 16 billion, CNY 21.8 billion, and CNY 26.6 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 10.8x, 7.9x, and 6.5x [10]. - **Key Financial Metrics**: The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of 16.1% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 4.5% [11]. Sales and Market Dynamics - Geely's sales in August 2025 included 21,400 units sold domestically, a year-on-year increase of 58%, while exports totaled 36,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 22% [10]. - The Galaxy brand showed significant growth, with sales increasing by 3.2 times year-on-year in August [10]. Strategic Developments - The company is advancing its electric and intelligent transformation, with new models set to launch in the latter half of 2025, including the Galaxy M9 and Lynk & Co 10 EM-P [10]. - Geely is integrating its four major brands—Geely, Galaxy, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr—to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [10].