证券研究报告 公司研究 / 公司点评 2026 年 01 月 09 日 智能化新品周期+出海驱动，革新成效渐显 ——上汽集团（600104.SH）公司销量点评 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 报告期 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人 | 营业总收入（百万元） | 744,705 | 627,590 | 668,572 | 697,788 | 746,773 | | 徐姝婧 | 同比增长率（%） | 0.1% | -15.7% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 7.0% | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 14,106 | 1,666 | 10,751 | 13,342 | 16,151 | | S0820124090004 | 同比增长（%） | -12.5% | -88.2% | 545.2% | 24.1% | 21.1% | | 021-32229888-25517 | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.23 | 0.14 | 0.93 | 1.15 | 1 ...

（上汽集团。企业供图） 中经记者 夏治斌 石英婧 上海报道 "过去一年，我们开启了全面深化改革的新征程。在市委市政府的坚强领导下，全体上汽人聚焦主业， 优化结构，整合资源，以'干字当头，奋力一跳'的拼搏姿态，扎实推进各项改革部署。上汽集团实现筑 底企稳，回升提速态势渐显，改革攻坚取得了阶段性成效。" 2025年12月31日，上海汽车集团股份有限公司（600104.SH，以下简称"上汽集团"）在题为《与时代同 频，与用户同行》的新年贺词中如是总结道。 这份亮眼的答卷，正由一系列扎实的经营数据勾勒而成。2025年，上汽集团以全面深化改革为抓手，重 点聚焦自主品牌建设和智电技术突破，不断加快创新转型步伐，全年销售整车450.7万辆，同比增长 12.3%，终端零售销量达到467万辆，继续保持国内行业领先。 数据亮眼，源于上汽集团多业务板块的协同发力。上汽集团方面在新年贺词中提到："这一年，我们推 动自主品牌、合资业务、海外市场协同并进，实现整车销售同比两位数增长。自主品牌勇挑大梁，乘用 车和商用车通过系列改革，打通产品定义、研发、生产和营销全链路，更贴近用户需求，更敏捷响应市 场；合资业务焕新升级，与大众、奥迪、通用 ...

行 业 研 究 2026 年 01 月 04 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 汽车 沪深300 汽车研究团队 邓健全（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090003 赵悦媛（联席首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790525100003 赵旭杨（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523090002 傅昌鑫（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090005 徐剑峰（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090004 （1）2025 全年国内汽车销量/交付榜：比亚迪 460 万辆蝉联第一，零跑夺新势力 销冠。2025 年 12 月国内汽车销量/交付榜：比亚迪依旧登顶、鸿蒙智行接近 9 万、 小米首破 5 万；（2）特斯拉 2025 年交付数据出炉：全年近 164 万辆，Q4 交付 超 41.8 万辆；（3）蔚来滇藏换电路线贯通（超 2700 公里），2026 年目标建 1000 座五代换电站（兼容三品牌），2025 年交付创新高；（4）比亚迪 2025 年首超特 斯拉，成全球最大纯电厂商；（5）奇瑞 ...

新浪科技讯 12月30日中午消息，吉利控股集团董事长李书福发表主题为《关键时刻 不惑不辍》的新年 致辞。2026年吉利将迎来创业第四十个年头。李书福在致辞中回顾了吉利四十年发展历程中的重要节 点。他表示，吉利四十年的发展是一部在"关键时刻"勇于抉择、敢于破局、蜕变向新的奋斗史。这 些"关键时刻"塑造了吉利的底色：在任何困难和挑战面前，敢于克服路径依赖，始终坚守核心价值观， 打造技术、文化、质量、标准、可持续发展的根基力量。 当前，新一轮技术变革正在重塑全球汽车产业，挑战与机遇并存。李书福认为，无论技术、市场如何变 革，以人为本的安全、绿色、愉悦的出行体验始终是汽车产业不变的核心。为此，吉利将持续强化在技 术创新、人才培养方面的投入。李书福表示，2026年起，吉利将首期投入5000万元，未来陆续投入3亿 元，启动青年创新创业激励计划，让吉利成为青年人才梦想启航的港湾。从2026年开始，吉利控股集团 旗下企业将根据各自业务发展实际情况，直接招聘有特长的高中毕业生在企业定向培养，积极探索"三 个校园组合"人才培养新模式，为企业人力资源开发管理，探索更积极、更有效、更切合实际的创新发 展新路子。吉利还将支持中国大学生 ...

汽车 汽车 2025 年 12 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 汽车 沪深300 汽车研究团队 邓健全（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090003 赵悦媛（联席首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790525100003 赵旭杨（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523090002 傅昌鑫（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090005 徐剑峰（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090004 王镇涛（研究员） 证书编号：S0790124070021 相关研究报告 《"两新"政策有望优化实施，客车 行 业 出 口 加 速 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.14 《鸿蒙智行尊界 S800 轿车 11 月交付 破 2000 台，宇树科技完成 IPO 辅导— 行业周报》-2025.12.7 《特斯拉 FSD V14.2.1 上线，长安汽车 拟 2.25 亿元参与设立机器人公司—行 业周报》-2025.11.30 首批 L3 级自动驾驶车型获准入许可，全球首条具身 智能机器人电池产线在宁德 ...

格隆汇12月16日｜爱建证券研报指出，上汽集团拥有完整的汽车产业链和丰富的品牌矩阵，整车业务包 括上汽乘用车（荣威、飞凡、智己等）、上汽大众、上汽通用、上汽五菱、大通等，零部件业务为集团 内各品牌提供支持。公司重组大乘用车板块，整合荣威和飞凡品牌，提升运营效率和资源协同；同时， 与华为深度合作推出全新品牌"尚界"，切入15-20万主流智能电动车市场，借鉴消费电子企业经验，提 升产品力与用户体验；此外，公司加速推进固态电池等前沿技术产业化。预计公司改革成效将逐步显 现，经营表现有望逐步回升。尚界、智己等自主品牌核心车型上市后月销快速攀升稳定过万；合资品牌 上汽大众及上汽通用月销同比增速稳定回正；出口及海外基地销量持续稳定正增长。公司估值低于可比 公司均值，考虑公司自上而下积极推动电动智能化转型，并加强对外合作，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评 级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a significant transformation towards electric and intelligent vehicles, supported by a strategic partnership with Huawei, which is expected to enhance its product offerings and user experience [6]. - The company has a complete automotive industry chain and a diverse brand matrix, which positions it well in the competitive landscape of the automotive industry [6]. - Financial forecasts indicate a strong rebound in net profit from 2025 onwards, with expected profits of 10.75 billion, 13.34 billion, and 16.15 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 744.71 billion yuan - 2024: 627.59 billion yuan (down 15.7% YoY) - 2025E: 668.57 billion yuan (up 6.5% YoY) - 2026E: 697.79 billion yuan (up 4.4% YoY) - 2027E: 746.77 billion yuan (up 7.0% YoY) [5][17] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 14.11 billion yuan - 2024: 1.67 billion yuan (down 88.2% YoY) - 2025E: 10.75 billion yuan (up 545.2% YoY) - 2026E: 13.34 billion yuan (up 24.1% YoY) - 2027E: 16.15 billion yuan (up 21.1% YoY) [5][17] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 1.7% in 2023 to 11.1% by 2027 [5][17]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company ranks second in cumulative automobile sales in China for the first ten months of 2025, with a market share of 12.8% [7]. - The automotive industry is experiencing intensified competition, particularly as domestic brands rise and joint ventures face pressure [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is restructuring its passenger vehicle segment to enhance operational efficiency and resource synergy [6]. - The collaboration with Huawei aims to penetrate the mainstream intelligent electric vehicle market, leveraging Huawei's technological expertise [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 42.24 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 760 million yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year but down 18.6% quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit was 540 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21.9% [2][4][10]. - The company has seen significant growth in its self-owned new energy vehicle sales, with a year-on-year increase of 81.2% in Q3 2025, accounting for approximately 38% of total sales. The total sales volume reached 711,000 vehicles, up 24.5% year-on-year [10][4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 15.7%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to improved profitability of new energy products [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 42.24 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 15.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 760 million yuan, while the non-recurring net profit was 540 million yuan [2][4][10]. - The total sales volume for Q3 2025 was 711,000 vehicles, with a significant contribution from new energy vehicles, which sold 272,500 units [10]. Strategic Developments - The company is accelerating its electric and intelligent transformation, with plans to launch 20 new models, including several new energy vehicles under its brands [10]. - The overseas expansion is progressing rapidly, with a focus on localizing production and enhancing brand positioning [10]. Market Outlook - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 4.63 billion yuan in 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.8 times, maintaining a "Buy" rating [10].

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile reported strong sales and revenue growth in August 2025, indicating a positive trend in the company's performance and market position [1] Sales Performance - In August 2025, Geely's wholesale sales reached 250,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 38% and a month-on-month increase of 5.2% [1] - Domestic sales accounted for 214,000 units, up 58% year-on-year, while exports were 36,000 units, down 22% year-on-year [1] - The Galaxy brand showed significant growth, with sales of 111,000 units in August, a year-on-year increase of 320% [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Geely achieved revenue of 150.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%, and a core net profit of 6.7 billion yuan, up 100% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 77.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%, and a net profit of 3.6 billion yuan, up 19 billion yuan year-on-year [1] Strategic Developments - Geely is advancing its electric and intelligent transformation, with new models set to launch, including the Galaxy M9 and Lynk & Co 10 EM-P [1] - The company has raised its 2025 sales target from 2.71 million to 3 million units, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory [1] - The integration of Geely, Galaxy, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr brands is expected to enhance cost efficiency and drive profitability [1] Future Outlook - The company forecasts total sales of 3.02 million, 3.4 million, and 3.96 million units for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 53%, 13%, and 16% respectively [1] - Geely's long-term strategy includes building an AI ecosystem through industry chain integration, which is anticipated to enhance competitiveness and business model [1] Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards to 353.5 billion, 449.7 billion, and 530.1 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 47%, 27%, and 18% [2] - The net profit estimates have also been revised to 16 billion, 21.8 billion, and 26.6 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 10.8, 7.9, and 6.5 [2] - The target price is set at 26.04 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 39%, maintaining a "strong buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Geely Automobile with a target price of HKD 26.04, indicating an expected upside of 39% from the current price of HKD 18.73 [6][10]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile's sales momentum continues, with August 2025 wholesale sales reaching 250,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 38% and a month-on-month increase of 5.2% [2][10]. - The company reported a revenue of CNY 150.3 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27%, and a core net profit of CNY 6.7 billion, which is a 100% increase year-on-year [2][10]. - The company has adjusted its 2025 sales target from 2.71 million units to 3 million units, driven by strong performance in its Galaxy brand and the launch of new models [10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to CNY 353.5 billion, CNY 449.7 billion, and CNY 530.1 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 47%, 27%, and 18% respectively [10]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: The net profit estimates for the same period have been adjusted to CNY 16 billion, CNY 21.8 billion, and CNY 26.6 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 10.8x, 7.9x, and 6.5x [10]. - **Key Financial Metrics**: The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of 16.1% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 4.5% [11]. Sales and Market Dynamics - Geely's sales in August 2025 included 21,400 units sold domestically, a year-on-year increase of 58%, while exports totaled 36,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 22% [10]. - The Galaxy brand showed significant growth, with sales increasing by 3.2 times year-on-year in August [10]. Strategic Developments - The company is advancing its electric and intelligent transformation, with new models set to launch in the latter half of 2025, including the Galaxy M9 and Lynk & Co 10 EM-P [10]. - Geely is integrating its four major brands—Geely, Galaxy, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr—to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [10].