基于第三季利润压力，该行将2025年收入预测下调11%，净利润预测下调7%；因新车型增长及海外扩 张，将2026年净利润预测上调5%。该行将其目标价由19港元升至22港元，重申"买入"评级；预期2025 至2027年销量将达136万至164万辆，升幅为9至11%，料巴西产能提升及新车型周期将推动期内收入增 长。 大和发表研究报告指，长城汽车第三季收入达612亿元，按年及按季分别增长20.5%及17%；净利润23亿 元，按年及按季分别下跌31%及50%。首三季收入1,536亿元，按年增长8%；净利润86亿元，按年下降 17%。 ...

Core Insights - Daiwa's research report indicates that Great Wall Motors' Q3 revenue reached 61.2 billion yuan, representing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 20.5% and 17% respectively [1] - The net profit for Q3 was 2.3 billion yuan, showing a decline of 31% year-on-year and 50% quarter-on-quarter [1] - For the first three quarters, the total revenue was 153.6 billion yuan, an 8% year-on-year increase, while net profit decreased by 17% to 8.6 billion yuan [1] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Due to profit pressure in Q3, the company has revised its 2025 revenue forecast down by 11% and net profit forecast down by 7% [1] - Conversely, the net profit forecast for 2026 has been increased by 5% due to new model growth and overseas expansion [1] Target Price and Sales Projections - The target price has been raised from 19 HKD to 22 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Sales projections for 2025 to 2027 are expected to reach between 1.36 million to 1.64 million units, reflecting an increase of 9% to 11% [1] - Anticipated revenue growth during this period is expected to be driven by increased production capacity in Brazil and a new model cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - Long-term growth potential for Great Wall Motors is supported by its high-end strategy and upcoming new model launches in both mass and premium markets, despite a slight decline in gross margin and lower-than-expected net profit for Q3 [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue for Great Wall Motors increased by 20.5% year-on-year [1] - Gross margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 18.4% [1] - Net profit was lower than market expectations [1] Strategic Outlook - The company plans to launch new models in the mass and high-end markets next year, which is expected to enhance its high-end strategy [1] - The high-end strategy is anticipated to improve exports to regions like Europe and achieve higher average selling prices [1] - The company's technological advantages and sustained premium pricing capability are expected to lay a solid foundation for growth in the coming year [1] Forecast Adjustments - The firm has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for the year down by 0.5% and 10.8% respectively due to Q3 profit adjustments [1] - Despite the adjustments, the firm maintains an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 21 [1]