证券研究报告 汽车 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 27 日 2026 年首月政策过渡期，新能源渗透率短暂承压 ——汽车行业周报 执业证书编号：S0230525080001 邮箱：lihy@hlzq.com 《英伟达发布自动驾驶模型平台， 报》2026.01.12 业爆发—汽车行业点评报告》2025.12.29 《反内卷+国补预计延续，看好 2026 年 车市向好—汽车行业周报》2025.12.29 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 . 本周观点：2026 年 1 月新能源渗透率短暂承压，看好高端化&出 海自主车企。据乘联分会预计，2026 年 1 月我国狭义乘用车零售 销量 180 万辆左右，环比-20.4%，同比微增 0.3%，2026 年新一轮 以旧换新补贴已启动，政策的延续与优化预计在全年对汽车市场 构成稳定有力的支撑。新能源方面，2026 年 1 月新能源零售销量 预计为 80 万辆左右，同比-40.2%，环比+7.5%。短期市场正处于 关键的政策衔接与转换期。新能源汽车购置税补贴变化，叠加 1 月天气寒冷，年前首购用户价格敏感需求占优等多重因素，新能 源市场热度相对较低，预计 1 月渗透率将为阶段 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the automotive and auto parts industry, particularly for new energy vehicles (NEVs) with a retail sales forecast of 1.4 million units for 2025 [5]. Core Insights - In September, retail sales of passenger cars reached a record high of 2.241 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a month-on-month increase of 11.0% [3]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in retail sales rose to 57.8%, up 5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The total sales of power and energy storage batteries in September reached 146.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.2% [4]. - The average battery capacity for new energy vehicles was 55.0 KWh, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 2.0% [4]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicle Sales - In September, retail sales of passenger vehicles were 2.241 million units, with wholesale sales at 2.803 million units, showing year-on-year growth of 6.3% and 12.4% respectively [3]. - Cumulative retail sales for the first nine months of 2025 reached 17.005 million units, a 9.2% increase year-on-year [3]. New Energy Vehicle Performance - Retail sales of new energy vehicles in September were 1.296 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [3]. - Cumulative retail sales for new energy vehicles in the first nine months of 2025 reached 8.866 million units, a 24.4% increase year-on-year [3]. Battery Market Insights - The power battery installation volume in September was 76.0 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 39.5% [4]. - The sales volume of power batteries was 110.5 GWh, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 75.5% [4]. Market Trends - The promotional intensity for new energy vehicles in September was maintained at a high level of 10.2%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5]. - The report highlights a shift in the market towards reduced price competition and stable promotions, with 23 models experiencing price cuts in September [5].