Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 2,288 tons to 19,600 tons week-on-week, with a slight increase in the production of spodumene and mica. In July, Chile exported 13,600 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 33% increase month-on-month and a 13% decrease year-on-year. This week, China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 692 tons to 142,400 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo Mine has stopped production, creating a short - term supply - demand gap [6]. - Demand side: In August, downstream production scheduling increased by 4% - 5% month-on-month, with good performance on the energy storage side. In July, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the terminal market were 987,000 units, a 12.0% increase year-on-year and an 11.2% decrease month-on-month [6]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 5.4% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.3% week-on-week. Overseas mines continue to hold firm on prices, and it is expected that the price of lithium ore will fluctuate with the price of lithium salt [6]. - Strategy: In the short term, the shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine will create a supply - demand gap of thousands of tons, and it is expected that the lithium price will be strong. If the mine resumes production quickly, the lithium price may fall. If the scope of mine shutdowns expands, the lithium price center will further increase [6]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Supply Side - **Lithium spodumene imports**: From January to May, China imported 2.92 million tons of lithium spodumene. In June, the import volume was 576,000 tons, a 4.8% decrease month-on-month. In May, imports from Australia decreased by 31% month-on-month, from South Africa increased by 87% month-on-month, and from Zimbabwe increased by 3% month-on-month [10]. - **Lithium concentrate price**: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 5.4% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.3% week-on-week. Overseas mines continue to hold firm on prices, and it is expected that the price of lithium ore will fluctuate with the price of lithium salt [13]. - **Domestic lithium carbonate production**: In July, China's monthly total production of lithium carbonate exceeded 80,000 tons for the first time, a 4% increase month-on-month and a 26% increase year-on-year. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene and recycling increased by 14% and 10% respectively month-on-month, while that from lepidolite and salt lakes decreased by 8% and 2% respectively [16]. - **Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China**: From January to June, China's cumulative import of lithium carbonate was 118,000 tons, a 11.3% increase year-on-year. In June, Chile exported 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 41% decrease year-on-year and a 6% increase month-on-month [20]. - **Spot price**: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800 yuan/ton, also with a slight week-on-week increase [23]. Demand Side - **Positive electrode factory capacity utilization**: From January to June, China's cumulative production of lithium iron phosphate positive electrodes was 1.48 million tons, a 47.8% increase year-on-year. From January to May, the cumulative production of ternary positive electrodes was 278,000 tons, a 9.9% increase year-on-year. In May, the capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate was 58.8%, and that of ternary materials was 49.5% [30]. - **Global new energy vehicle market**: From January to May this year, global new energy vehicle sales were 5.564 million units, a 25.5% increase year-on-year. In the same period, European new energy vehicle sales were 1.311 million units, a 23.3% increase year-on-year, and US sales were 517,000 units, a 9.9% increase year-on-year [34]. - **China's new energy vehicle market**: From January to June, China's new energy vehicle market had cumulative sales of 6.934 million units, a 40.3% increase year-on-year. From July 1st to July 20th, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 537,000 units, a 23% increase year-on-year and a 12% decrease month-on-month [37]. - **Power battery production**: In June, China's total production of power and other batteries was 129.2 GWh, a 4.6% increase month-on-month and a 51.4% increase year-on-year. From January to June, the cumulative production was 697.3 GWh, a 60.4% increase year-on-year [42]. - **Domestic mobile phone shipments**: In the first quarter of 2025, China's smartphone market shipments were 71.6 million units, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [47]. - **New energy storage installation**: From January to May this year, the total installed capacity of newly commissioned new - type energy storage projects was 18.62 GW/47.57 GWh, with a 110% increase in power and a 112.94% increase in capacity year-on-year. In June, the installed capacity was 2.33 GW/5.63 GWh, a significant decrease year-on-year and month-on-month [50]. - **August downstream production scheduling**: In August, downstream production scheduling increased by 4% - 5% month-on-month, with good performance on the energy storage side [56]. Other Indicators - **Non - integrated lithium salt factory cost**: The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene is 79,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,201 yuan/ton week-on-week. The theoretical production profit is - 11,770 yuan/ton, an increase of 201 yuan/ton week-on-week [53]. - **Basis**: This week, the lithium carbonate basis was - 5,060, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The basis of the contract turned negative [59]. - **Contract spread**: This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure, and the spread between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract turned positive, with the spread increasing by 920 compared to last week [64].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mostly positive trend today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.34% to close at 3647.55 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.46% to 11291.43 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 182.7 billion yuan, an increase of 11.67 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, sectors such as power equipment, telecommunications, computers, electronics, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals led the gains, while banking, oil and petrochemicals, coal, public utilities, transportation, and textiles faced declines [1] - The top-performing concept sectors included PEEK materials, lithium mining, stock trading software, cultivated diamonds, lithium iron phosphate batteries, circuit boards, lithium battery anodes, and power equipment [2]

Core Viewpoint - BMW (China) Automotive Trade Co., Ltd. and Brilliance BMW Automotive Ltd. have announced a recall of over 230,000 vehicles due to safety hazards related to starter generator connections and high-voltage system malfunctions [1][4]. Recall Details - The recall is divided into four categories, with specific vehicle models and production dates outlined for each [2][3]. - The first recall involves 1 imported 5 Series vehicle produced on November 26, 2024 [2]. - The second recall includes 1,012 units of the domestic 5 Series and 379 units of the domestic X5, produced between July 20, 2024, and December 19, 2024 [2]. - The third recall encompasses 4,609 imported i4 vehicles and 7,730 imported iX vehicles, among others, produced between December 2, 2020, and December 18, 2023 [3]. - The fourth recall affects 95,753 domestic i3 vehicles, making it the most affected model, along with other domestic models [3]. Safety Concerns - The vehicles in the recall may experience issues such as loose connections in the starter generator, which could lead to engine stalling or fire hazards [2][4]. - BMW will provide free software upgrades to address the high-voltage system malfunction that could lead to loss of power and increased collision risk [4]. Market Performance - BMW's recall frequency has been high, with over 4 million vehicles recalled last year due to various issues [4]. - In 2024, BMW's deliveries in China fell by 13.4% to 714,500 units, marking the largest decline among luxury brands [4]. - In the first half of the year, BMW's sales in Asia dropped by 11.1%, with a significant 15.5% decline in the Chinese market, despite it being the largest single market for the company [4]. Strategic Initiatives - To counter declining sales, BMW has intensified its local ecosystem development, including partnerships with Huawei and Alibaba for AI and smart driving technologies [5]. - Collaborations with CATL and EVE Energy aim to accelerate the production of cylindrical battery cells [5]. - BMW has also partnered with Momenta to develop new intelligent driving assistance solutions tailored for the Chinese market [5].

Group 1 - The global cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.975 million units from January to May 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 28%, which drove the global power battery installation capacity to approximately 369.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 35% [2][3] - In May 2025, global new energy vehicle sales were 1.585 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 24%, while the power battery installation capacity was about 84.7 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 30% [3] - China's power battery installation capacity accounted for 61.4% of the global market share, with six out of the top ten companies being Chinese, and Guoxuan High-Tech showing the highest year-on-year growth rate of 71% [3] Group 2 - The global installation capacity of lithium iron phosphate power batteries saw a year-on-year increase of 63%, driven by the continuous growth in the installation of lithium iron phosphate power batteries in China [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate still show a situation of excessive supply and weak demand for now, but the industry expectations have improved, and the supply - demand situation may gradually improve [2]. - The option market sentiment is bullish, with the call position dominant and the implied volatility slightly decreasing [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are converging [2]. - The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions on rallies with a light position and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 63,660 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 79,406 hands, up 3,550 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 322,535 hands, down 2,753 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 80 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan; the warehouse receipts on GEA are 21,036 hands/ton, down 1,844 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,550 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,110 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 696 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,655 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 6 percentage points; the monthly production of power batteries is 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 28,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 50,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 218,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 144,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 120,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly production of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,270,000 vehicles, up 19,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,307,000 vehicles, up 81,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume and year - on - year increase are 5,608,000 vehicles, up 1,713,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 212,000 vehicles, up 12,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume and year - on - year increase are 855,000 vehicles, up 336,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 21.65%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 24.77%, down 0.46 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 188,165 contracts, up 10,192 contracts; the total put position is 100,314 contracts, down 1,986 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 53.31%, down 4.1689 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.22%, down 0.0065 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - GGII: From January to May, the cumulative global sales of new energy vehicles were 6.975 million, a year - on - year increase of 28%, driving the global power battery installed capacity to about 369.8 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 35%. China's power battery installed capacity accounted for 61.4% of the global share, and six of the top ten enterprises were from China [2]. - According to Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, in May 2025, the transaction volume of the national second - hand car market was 1.604 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%, and the transaction amount was 103 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to May, the cumulative transaction volume of second - hand cars was 7.91 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and the transaction amount was 516.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.1% [2]. - According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in June was 49.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising month - on - month for two consecutive months. Although the index is still in the contraction range, the consecutive two - month slight increase reflects that the global economic recovery strength has rebounded [2]. - The US House of Representatives passed a comprehensive tax and expenditure reform bill led by President Trump. The major adjustment of the subsidy mechanism for electric vehicles (EV) has attracted wide market attention. The $7,500 federal tax credit for new cars and the $4,000 credit for second - hand cars will officially end on September 30, which is expected to have a profound impact on the US new energy vehicle market [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - The report focuses on lithium carbonate with a monthly review cycle, written on July 1, 2025 [1] 2. Market Review - In June, affected by supply - demand changes and relevant stimulus policies, the futures price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rose, increasing by 2420 yuan/ton (4.04%) for the whole month. The highest price of the main contract 2509 was 63600 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 58400 yuan/ton. As of June 30, the average spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 61300 yuan/ton, the average spot price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59700 yuan/ton, the futures closed at 62260 yuan/ton, and the basis widened to 960 yuan/ton. The futures price fluctuated frequently, with a downward trend in the first ten - day period due to pessimistic market expectations and a certain rebound in the last ten - day period affected by some news and capital games, but still in a weak pattern [3] 3. Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.1 Domestic Production - In June, domestic lithium carbonate production remained at a relatively high level. Some mica - based lithium extraction enterprises had slightly fluctuating production due to raw material supply and cost issues, while salt - lake and spodumene - based lithium extraction enterprises maintained stable production. In Jiangxi, some mica - based lithium extraction enterprises reduced production by about 5 - 8% month - on - month due to high lithium mica concentrate prices. In Qinghai salt - lake areas, production increased by about 3 - 5% month - on - month due to the summer production peak. According to SMM data, the total domestic lithium carbonate production in June was about 35,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 2% [4] 3.2 Import Situation - In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate declined. Customs data showed that the total import volume was about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.3%, and the average import price was about 12,309 US dollars/ton. Among them, about 15,700 tons were imported from Chile and about 3400 tons from Argentina. The decrease in imports alleviated the oversupply situation to some extent, but the overall supply was still sufficient [4] 3.3 Power Battery Field - In June, the production and sales data of the new energy vehicle market were good, and the growth rate remained at a certain level [4]

Core Insights - CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) has made a significant impact in the global power battery sector, particularly after its successful listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which has attracted considerable market attention [1][3] - The company's stock performance on its debut was remarkable, with H shares opening 12.55% higher and reaching a peak increase of over 18% during the trading day, ultimately closing with a gain of 16.43% [1] - Following its listing, CATL continued to show strong performance, with stock prices rising over 11% on the second day, indicating robust market interest and investor confidence [1][3] MSCI Index Inclusion - Being included in the MSCI Global Standard Index and MSCI China All Shares Index is a significant milestone for CATL, as it is expected to attract more international capital and enhance market liquidity and valuation [3] - This inclusion reflects CATL's growing recognition and influence in the global capital market, providing solid capital support for its future international strategic initiatives and business expansion [3] Future Outlook - With ongoing efforts in the global renewable energy sector and continuous technological innovation, CATL is positioned to maintain strong growth and potentially achieve further success in the power battery market and the broader renewable energy industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Keda Li (002850), plans to invest up to 50 million euros in Hungary for the construction of a precision structural component project for power batteries, with an expected annual output value of approximately 100 million euros upon full production [1] Investment Details - The investment will be funded through the company's own resources, covering aspects such as factory construction, machinery procurement, and working capital [1] - The project is expected to take about 24 months to complete, depending on market demand and business development [1] Production Capacity - The project will focus on the production of precision structural components for lithium batteries [1] - Once fully operational, the project is projected to achieve an annual output value of around 100 million euros [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% to close at 3387.57 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.44% to 10294.22 points. The ChiNext Index fell by 0.22% to 995.49 points, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index rose by 0.83% to 2065.39 points. Overall, there were more decliners than advancers, with 3599 stocks declining and 1615 stocks advancing across the market. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 11734 billion yuan, an increase of 37.64 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, coal, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, banking, pharmaceutical biology, and transportation sectors led the gains, while beauty care, electronics, media, social services, machinery equipment, and retail sectors experienced declines [1]. - The top-performing concept sectors included gold and jewelry, selected air transport, power batteries, coal mining, central enterprise coal, lithium battery anodes, lithium iron phosphate batteries, solid-state batteries, sodium-ion batteries, complete vehicles, cobalt mines, battery recycling, new energy vehicles, germanium-gallium-antimony ink, and antibiotics [2].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Hanchuang Nano Technology Co., Ltd. (Hanchuang) has emerged as a leader in the lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) market, achieving nearly 50% market share and becoming a key player in the industrialization of LMFP materials [3][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Hanchuang has achieved the highest global shipment volume of LMFP for two consecutive years (2023-2024) [3]. - The company has completed three rounds of financing totaling nearly 500 million yuan, with a stable operation of 15,000 tons of production capacity and an accelerated expansion plan for 30,000 tons [3][4]. - The founding team consists of executives and R&D experts from leading global material companies, marking them as the longest-serving team in LMFP research and the first to achieve LMFP industrialization [3][4]. Group 2: Product and Technology - LMFP materials developed by Hanchuang are an upgraded version of lithium iron phosphate (LFP), offering a 15-20% increase in energy density compared to LFP, along with high safety, low cost per watt-hour, and excellent low-temperature performance [4]. - Hanchuang has developed a unique solid-liquid two-phase LMFP process that overcomes traditional performance bottlenecks, resulting in the lowest cost and optimal performance LMFP products in the industry [4]. - The company holds over 70 core patents related to LMFP, covering major markets including China, the US, Europe, and Japan, establishing a solid barrier for its technology commercialization [4]. Group 3: Industry Development - The development of LMFP has gone through four key stages: laboratory research (1997-2007), industrial exploration (2008-2014), policy fluctuation (2015-2019), and revival breakthrough (2020-present) [7]. - The market for LMFP is expected to grow significantly, becoming one of the most important cathode materials after LFP and ternary materials, according to Roland Berger's 2025 forecast [8]. Group 4: Market Applications and Collaborations - Hanchuang has established deep collaborations with leading battery manufacturers and is expected to achieve mass production applications in the electric vehicle (EV) sector within the year [11]. - Major companies such as CATL, BYD, and others are also launching LMFP products, indicating a growing trend in the adoption of LMFP technology across various applications [11].