Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to high base effects and weakened demand in the large infusion segment, but maintains a positive outlook for steady profit growth in 2025 driven by product upgrades and new market explorations [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 3.079 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 2.10%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 507 million yuan, down 1.26% year-over-year [1]. - The large infusion segment saw a revenue decline of 16% year-over-year, totaling 770 million yuan, attributed to high base effects and seasonal demand fluctuations [1]. - Non-infusion segment revenue for Q1 2025 was 2.28 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.35%, driven by growth in gynecology and oncology specialties [2]. Group 2: Segment Analysis - The large infusion segment is expected to stabilize in sales volume, with ongoing upgrades in packaging and production efficiency to maintain profit levels despite revenue declines [1]. - The non-infusion segment's growth is supported by steady performance in chronic disease treatments and strong sales in specialty areas, particularly gynecology and oncology [2]. - The raw materials segment experienced an 8.7% year-over-year revenue decline, but is anticipated to recover due to new product introductions and improved sales volumes [2]. Group 3: Growth Potential - The company has established eight core technology platforms and is advancing over 20 key projects, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth [2]. - Expansion into e-commerce and OTC channels is expected to contribute to a targeted revenue growth of 10% in 2025 [2]. - New product launches, including innovative drugs for diabetes and antiviral treatments, are projected to drive revenue growth, supported by a strong sales team [2]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts EPS of 1.69, 1.83, and 1.96 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price of 27.04 yuan based on a 16x PE ratio for 2025 [3].

华润双鹤 (600062 CH) 输液需求略有回落，非输液稳健增长 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 29 日│中国内地 | 化学制药 | 公司公告，2025 年 Q1 实现营收 30.79 亿元（yoy-2.10%），归母净利润 5.07 亿元（yoy-1.26%）；收入/利润略有下滑，主因大输液板块 1Q 高基数+需求 趋弱等影响。展望 25 年，考虑大输液板块持续包材升级及营养/治疗型输液 占比提升，原料药板块合成生物新品等占比提升，紫竹加大 OTC 电商端拓 展等，我们看好公司 25 年净利润稳健增长，考虑公司后续潜在 BD 或新领 域探索预期，维持"买入"。 输液板块：1Q 收入下滑利润企稳，后续加大产效+加速包材升级 输液板块 1Q25 收入 7.7 亿元（-16%yoy），1Q 收入下降主因高基数影响及 当季暖冬影响大输液需求。展望 25 年，我们估测大输液收入端略有下滑， 毛利率保持当前水平，考虑：1）销量端预计规模企稳，1Q25 大输液销量 环比 4Q24 已有回升；2）核心销售区域受基础输液集采影响 ...