二季度环比改善，特种功能材料有望在十 五五迎来新一轮高增长 核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 维持 25-27 年归母净利润预期为 4.32、5.89 亿元、7.58 亿元。参考可比公司 25 年 估值水平，对应 25 年 49 倍 PE，目标价 77.42 元，维持增持评级。 华秦科技 688281.SH 公司研究 | 中报点评 | | 增持 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年08月22日） | 71.11 元 | | 目标价格 | 77.42 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 84.48/46.05 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 27,257/17,036 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 19,383 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 国防军工 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 08 月 24 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -2.59 | 11.76 | 31.86 | 35.62 | | 相对表现% | -6. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 66.36 CNY, corresponding to a 42x PE for 2025 [2][4]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing use of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in the aerospace industry, particularly in next-generation engines developed by GE and Pratt & Whitney, which are expected to enhance performance significantly [8]. - The establishment of a subsidiary, Shanghai Ruihua Sheng, aims to capitalize on key aerospace technologies, with the CMC business projected to become a second growth driver for the company [8]. - The stealth materials market presents substantial growth opportunities, with the company expected to benefit from increasing demand driven by new military aircraft production and upgrades in stealth technology [8]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue and gross margin adjustments have been made, with projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 revised to 432 million CNY and 589 million CNY, respectively, and a new estimate for 2027 at 758 million CNY [2]. - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow from 917 million CNY in 2023 to 2,189 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24.8% [3]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 50% in the coming years, with net profit margins projected to remain above 30% [3]. Key Financial Information - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.23 CNY in 2023 to 2.78 CNY in 2027 [3]. - The net asset return (ROE) is expected to improve from 8.4% in 2023 to 13.5% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [3]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 48.8 in 2023 to 21.6 in 2027, suggesting a more attractive valuation over time [3].

Core Viewpoint - The new materials industry in China is at a critical juncture, facing supply-demand imbalances due to a slowdown in effective demand and chaotic supply expansion, but there are signs of marginal improvements that may lead to investment opportunities by 2025 [2][11][20]. Group 1: Demand Improvement and Incremental Opportunities - The aerospace and defense sectors are expected to see a recovery in demand for titanium materials, driven by the replenishment of military orders and the introduction of new equipment [3][42]. - The demand for high-performance carbon fiber is anticipated to increase due to the replacement of old grades and the development of new applications in unmanned and efficient equipment [4][62]. - Ceramic matrix composites are positioned to become key materials for next-generation aircraft engines, with increasing demand as manufacturing processes mature [4]. - Additive manufacturing is entering a new development phase, emphasizing the need for innovation and deep integration with customer requirements to expand application spaces [4]. Group 2: Identifying Relatively Rigid Supply Segments - The refrigerant market is constrained by regulations, leading to limited domestic supply while overseas demand remains strong, resulting in rising prices [6]. - Tungsten, a strategic metal for China, is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance due to effective control measures and increasing demand in hard alloys and photovoltaic applications [6]. - The strategic value of rare earth elements has been recognized at the central level, with supply growth slowing and demand increasing, which may stabilize prices and signal a potential industry cycle turning point [6]. Group 3: Innovative Applications Driven by Frontier Technologies - The commercial aerospace sector is driving demand for new materials and processes, particularly in reusable rocket technologies and liquid rocket engines, which will increase the need for copper alloy thrust chambers and thermal barrier coatings [7]. - The rise of artificial intelligence is boosting demand for computing power, leading to increased applications for soft magnetic materials and iron carbonyl powder in power modules [7]. - The development of humanoid robots is expected to drive demand for engineering plastics and neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets due to lightweight design trends [7]. - The acceleration of superconducting materials' industrialization and applications is worth monitoring for their expansion in downstream technology fields [7].