Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to market sentiment changes, with a volatile outlook on the futures market [1] - Polysilicon: Focus on information from the SNEC conference, and a short - position is recommended for the futures market [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, open interest, basis, inventory, and cost data. It also provides trend strength indicators, with - 1 for industrial silicon and - 2 for polysilicon, indicating a bearish outlook [1][3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Market Data**: For industrial silicon futures (Si2507), the closing price was 7,415 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 440,221 lots and an open interest of 155,627 lots. For polysilicon futures (PS2507), the closing price was 34,105 yuan/ton, down 635 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 123,726 lots and an open interest of 64,383 lots [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of industrial silicon (against different spot benchmarks) and the spread between near - month and continuous - first contracts showed various changes. For example, the industrial silicon near - month contract to continuous - first spread was - 165 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 2,825 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Yunnan Si4210 was 9,900 yuan/ton, also unchanged. Polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock was 36,500 yuan/ton, with no change [1] - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits were negative, with Xinjiang new - standard 553 at - 3,811 yuan/ton and Yunnan new - standard 553 at - 7,000 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit was - 4.7 yuan/kg [1] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipts) was 58.7 million tons, and enterprise inventory was 23.9 million tons. The industry inventory was 82.6 million tons. Polysilicon factory inventory was 26.9 million tons [1] - **Raw Material Costs**: Prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc., showed different degrees of decline compared to previous periods [1] - **Prices in the Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Industry Chain**: Prices of products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA also showed varying degrees of decline [1] - **Profit in Related Industries**: Profits of DMC enterprises in the organic silicon industry and regenerative aluminum enterprises in the aluminum alloy industry were also affected, showing negative or declining trends [1] [Macro and Industry News] - On June 4th, the ecological environment bureau of Wuzhong City, Ningxia released an environmental impact assessment report for LONGi Green Energy's BC module advanced technology demonstration project. The project, with a total investment of 300 million yuan, is set to produce 3GW of single - crystal BC modules annually [1][3] [Trend Intensity] - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 2, indicating a bearish attitude towards both products, with polysilicon being more bearish [3]