此前，美国公布的通胀数据超出预期，导致一些交易员降低了降息预期。尽管短期内有所回调，但交易 员们似乎仍然坚信下个月会降息。（新华财经） 本周，交易员再次加码该押注，针对降息50个基点的未平仓合约大幅攀升。几天后，美联储主席鲍威尔 将在杰克逊霍尔发表关键讲话。 交易员们正大举涌入一种特定的期权押注，认为美联储下个月将大幅降息超过25个基点。自本月初以 来，与政策预期密切相关的隔夜担保融资利率（SOFR）相关头寸的需求旺盛。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Traders are significantly betting on a substantial interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, exceeding 25 basis points, as demand for positions related to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) has surged since the beginning of the month [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - There has been a notable increase in open contracts betting on a 50 basis point rate cut, indicating strong market sentiment towards a more aggressive easing [1] - Following the release of inflation data that exceeded expectations, some traders adjusted their rate cut predictions, although the overall belief in a rate cut next month remains strong [1] Group 2: Treasury Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury bonds ended a three-day sell-off, with yields across various maturities declining [1] - Ian Lingen, head of U.S. rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets, highlighted that the biggest risk for U.S. Treasuries is if Fed Chair Powell dampens expectations for a September rate cut in his upcoming speech [1]