Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose, and the possibility of interest rate hikes is low, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, geopolitical factors may push up inflation, and the tightening of overseas central bank policies may suppress the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate within a range [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2606 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is bullish, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures continued to oscillate and consolidate yesterday. The Middle East geopolitical crisis repeatedly disturbs market sentiment. Due to weak inflation data and insufficient effective domestic demand, the future monetary and credit environment is loose, and the possibility of interest rate hikes is low, supporting Treasury bond futures. But geopolitical factors may push up inflation, and the tightening of overseas central bank policies may suppress the upward momentum. The domestic macro - economic indicators are resilient, and the policy is more inclined to structural easing. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate within a range [5].

Inflation Data Summary - In February, China's CPI recorded a year-on-year increase of +1.3%, exceeding the Wind consensus expectation of +0.88% and up 1.1 percentage points from the previous value[3] - The month-on-month CPI rose by 1% in February[3] - February's PPI showed a year-on-year decline of -0.9%, better than the Wind consensus expectation of -1.16%, improving by 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[3] - Month-on-month PPI increased by 0.4%[3] Key Contributors to CPI Changes - Food, tobacco, and alcohol CPI rose by 1.4% month-on-month, influenced significantly by the Spring Festival, with aquatic product prices increasing by 6.9%[3] - Core CPI year-on-year increased by +1.8%, up 1 percentage point from the previous value, driven by strong service CPI performance[3] - Travel CPI surged by 14.1% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.32 percentage points to the overall CPI increase[3] PPI Sector Performance - PPI has risen month-on-month for five consecutive months, with notable increases in sectors like non-ferrous mining (+7.1%) and petrochemical extraction (+5.1%) due to rising international metal and oil prices[3] - Some sectors, such as electric heat production (-3.9%) and downstream paper industry (-0.9%), showed weaker month-on-month performance[3] Future Outlook and Risks - Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are expected to impact future inflation readings, with Brent crude oil prices rising by 54.2% to around $105 per barrel since February 28[3] - Potential prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to further increases in PPI year-on-year[3] - Concerns about "stagflation" may arise from inflation driven by external factors, affecting bond market yields and stock market liquidity risks[3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous overweight rating of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight in the short term, and relatively recommends allocating TS and TF [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The market is pricing in the possibility of a sustained high - oil - price environment, increasing concerns about economic stagflation in the US in Q1. The overseas macro logic may shift from "soft landing" expectations driven by looser liquidity to the arrival time and magnitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the transition from "inflation" to "stagflation". Although inflation data is favorable for stronger rate - cut expectations, rising oil prices make short - term policy paths more cautious [1] - Domestic macro: After the important meeting, the domestic macro situation enters the verification period of fundamental reality. This week's domestic data on exports, inflation, and finance are relatively good, increasing the probability of a "good start" in Q1. Exports have a strong start, core CPI continues to strengthen, PPI recovery rate is high, and corporate medium - and long - term loans provide significant support. The focus is on the repair progress of domestic demand investment, the impact of imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [1] - Asset views: Investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term and control the investment portfolio position. The previous overweight rating of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals is downgraded to equal - weight, and TS and TF are relatively recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Morning Meeting Summary - **Financial sector**: Stock index futures show resilience throughout the day, with short - term judgment of oscillation; stock index options focus on call option defense, with short - term judgment of oscillation; treasury bond futures are disturbed by inflation concerns, with short - term judgment of oscillation [4] - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver prices are affected by rising oil prices suppressing rate - cut expectations, with short - term judgment of oscillation [4] - **Shipping**: The traffic volume of ships in the Strait of Hormuz remains low, and the short - term judgment of container shipping on the European line is weakly oscillating [4] - **Black building materials**: There is a game between reality and expectations, mainly in an oscillating state. For example, steel has cost support, iron ore's shipping and arrival rhythm fluctuate, and coke and coking coal have different supply - demand situations [4] - **Non - ferrous and new materials**: Oil price fluctuations dominate the market, and basic metals continue to oscillate. For example, copper prices are under pressure due to the rising US dollar index, and aluminum prices are strongly oscillating due to supply disturbances [4] - **Energy and chemicals**: Gulf oil - producing countries continue to cut production, and crude oil and chemicals remain at a high level and oscillate. For example, crude oil has a shortage expectation, and LPG supply is tightening [4][5] - **Agriculture**: Palm oil leads the rise in oils, and double - meal is adjusted at a high level. For example, corn futures are consolidating at a high level, and pig prices are weakening [5] 3.2 Financial Market Price Changes - **Stock indices**: On March 16, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual price changes of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures are different [7] - **Treasury bonds**: The price changes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided, as well as the price changes of the US dollar index, US dollar intermediate price, etc. [7] 3.3 CITIC Industry Index Price Changes - On March 16, 2026, different industries in the CITIC industry index have different daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual price changes, such as the rise of the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry and the decline of the non - ferrous metal industry [8][9] 3.4 Overseas Commodity Price Changes - On March 13, 2026, energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products in overseas commodities have different price changes. For example, NYMEX WTI crude oil has a significant increase, while COMEX gold has a decline [10][11] 3.5 Domestic Main Commodity Price Changes - On March 16, 2026, shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products in domestic commodities have different price changes. For example, the container shipping on the European line has a decline, while crude oil has a significant increase [12][13][14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Gold prices are expected to remain stable above the 20 - day moving average, fluctuating within the range of $5000 - 5250 with narrowing volatility. Short - term out - of - the - money call options above 1200 yuan can be held [1]. - Silver prices continue to be weakly volatile under multiple factors, testing the support of the 60 - day moving average. The silver price range is $80 - 90, and out - of - the money call options above 23000 yuan can be held [1]. - Platinum and palladium prices are suppressed by the reversal of macro - financial attributes and demand expectations. They generally follow the weak volatility of gold and silver. Platinum prices fluctuate within the range of $2000 - 2200, and palladium prices fluctuate within the range of $1590 - 1690 [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1148.10 yuan/gram on March 12, down 0.34% from the previous day [1]. - AG2606 contract closed at 22062 yuan/kilogram on March 12, down 0.87% from the previous day [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 564.65 on March 12, down 0.16% from the previous day [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 416.60 yuan/gram on March 12, down 1.80% from the previous day [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 5084.10 on March 12, down 1.93% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 83.96 on March 12, down 2.28% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2130.70 dollars/ounce on March 12, down 1.96% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1638.00 on March 12, down 0.64% from the previous day [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 5077.94 on March 12, down 2.02% from the previous day [1]. - London silver was at 83.78 on March 12, down 2.27% from the previous day [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2150.00 dollars/ounce on March 12, down 2.49% from the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1618.90 on March 12, down 0.86% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D was at 1146.26 yuan/gram on March 12, down 0.35% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 21851 yuan/kilogram on March 12, down 0.67% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 553 yuan/gram on March 12, down 0.69% from the previous day [1]. Spreads - The spread of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 1.84 on March 12, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 46.10% [1]. - The spread of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 211 on March 12, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 60.60% [1]. - The spread of London gold - COMEX gold was - 9.13 on March 12, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 75.60% [1]. - The spread of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.37 on March 12, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 21.70% [1]. Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 60.56 on March 12, up 0.36% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver was 52.04 on March 12, up 0.54% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.30 on March 12, down 1.33% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium was 1.36 on March 12, up 1.67% from the previous day [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.27 on March 12, up 1.4% from the previous day [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.76 on March 12, up 3.3% from the previous day [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.89 on March 12, up 2.2% from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index was 99.74 on March 12, up 0.48% from the previous day [1]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8821 on March 12, up 0.08% from the previous day [1]. Inventories - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 105420 on March 12, up 0.49% from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 309974 (in ten thousand) on March 12, up 23.07% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 32656407 on March 12, down 0.20% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 344324824 on March 12, down 0.06% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipt was 16697449 on March 12, down 0.17% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipt was 78610869 on March 12, up 0.34% from the previous day [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF holding was 1076 on March 12, down 0.13% from the previous day [1]. - The SLV silver ETF holding was 15539 on March 12, with no change from the previous day [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The February CPI in the US basically met market expectations, but the strengthening US dollar still exerted strong pressure on the precious metals market [2]. - In terms of fundamentals, the long - term supply shortage logic for platinum remains solid. In 2026, global platinum supply is expected to increase slightly, and total demand will rise to 237 tons, with a market shortage of about 7 tons for the fourth consecutive year, and the depletion of above - ground inventory supports platinum prices [2]. - Palladium has a weak medium - term fundamental outlook. It is highly dependent on gasoline vehicle catalysts and faces dual pressures from the increasing penetration of electric vehicles and the accelerating substitution of platinum [2]. - In the short term, if crude oil prices continue to rise, platinum and palladium may continue to be under pressure. In the medium term, there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, and the subsequent trend of US inflation data needs to be observed. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading for now [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 564.65 yuan/gram, down 5.35 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 416.60 yuan/gram, down 8.85 yuan [2]. - The main contract position of platinum was 10,387 hands, down 277 hands; the main contract position of palladium was 3,179 hands, up 90 hands [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 553.23 yuan/gram, down 3.85 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 388.00 yuan/gram, down 11.00 yuan [2]. - The basis of the platinum main contract was - 11.42 yuan/gram, up 1.50 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 28.60 yuan/gram, down 2.15 yuan [2]. Supply and Demand - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly) were 9,966 contracts, down 243 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC (weekly) were 3,003 contracts, down 342 contracts [2]. - The total supply of platinum in 2025 was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 was expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2]. - The total demand for platinum in 2025 was expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 was expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 99.20, up 0.27; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.85%, up 0.03% [2]. - The VIX volatility index was 24.23, down 0.70 [2]. Industry News - US President Trump said that there were "almost no targets left to strike" in Iran, and the US military action against Iran was "coming to an end", but US and Israeli officials said they had not received internal instructions to stop the military action [2]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 4 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves to deal with the risk of energy supply disruption caused by the Iran war, which was the largest coordinated release in the agency's history [2]. - The latest US inflation data showed that in February, the seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, all in line with market expectations. However, the February data did not reflect the impact of the soaring oil prices caused by the Iran situation, and more data were needed to determine when the Fed would cut interest rates again [2]. - The US Treasury data showed that the US government budget deficit in February 2026 was $308 billion. The budget deficit from the beginning of the current fiscal year to February had exceeded $1 trillion, but was far lower than the same period last year. The total budget deficit so far this fiscal year was $1.004 trillion, a decrease of about 12% compared with the same period in 2025 due to faster growth in government revenue than expenditure [2]. Key Points to Watch - On March 13 at 20:30, the US January core PCE price index; on March 13 at 22:00, the US January durable goods orders [2]

Inflation Data Summary - In February 2026, China's CPI increased by 1.3% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in January, and rose by 1.0% month-on-month[2] - Core CPI rose by 1.8% year-on-year, significantly higher than the previous month's 0.8%, marking the highest level since February 2019[2][4] - Food prices increased by 1.7% year-on-year, with fresh vegetables, seafood, and fruits rising by 10.9%, 6.1%, and 5.9% respectively[4] PPI Analysis - February 2026 PPI decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, a reduction in the decline by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, while month-on-month it increased by 0.4%[2][9] - The prices of non-ferrous metals rose by 21.3% year-on-year and 4.8% month-on-month, driven by global resource competition[9] - Production material prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, with mining and processing industries showing robust performance[9] Economic Outlook - The continuous month-on-month expansion of PPI suggests a potential for positive year-on-year growth in Q2 2026, marking a significant macroeconomic turning point since 2023[12] - The rising price levels are expected to benefit nominal GDP growth and favor cyclical sectors, particularly those with scarce resource attributes[12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The monetary policy rate cut this year may be more flexible. If the oil price shock persists strongly, the rate cut may be postponed [1][3] - The CPI reading in February basically conforms to the characteristics of the month - shifting effect. The year - on - year increases of CPI and core CPI from January to February are close to those in December last year, but the month - on - month increase of core CPI in February and the cumulative month - on - month increase from January to February both reached the highest level in the same period since 2013. Attention should be paid to whether there is an acceleration sign in core CPI [3] - The oil price shock may affect the prospect of China's monetary policy rate cut this year. The oil price shock caused by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a certain impact on China's imported inflation. Although China has great potential to adjust the crude oil supply structure, the supply - chain adjustment may take a certain time [3] - The government work report of the Two Sessions in 2026 requires to promote the overall price level to turn positive from negative and the consumer price to rise reasonably and moderately by improving the total supply - demand relationship, so as to promote the virtuous cycle of the economy [3] - If the oil price shock lasts for a short time (within 1 - 2 months), it is expected to have little impact on the rhythm of China's monetary policy. However, if the oil price shock persists strongly, the policy rate cut this year may be later. If the key shipping routes for crude oil transportation are blocked due to geopolitical conflicts for a long time and the oil price remains at the recent high level, the central bank may wait until the adjustment of the imported crude oil supply chain is sufficient and the oil price has an obvious negative impact on the global economy and external demand before cutting the policy rate [3] - Overall, the report maintains the view in last week's weekly report that this year's monetary policy will be more flexible. China may conduct 1 - 2 policy rate cuts of 10BP each this year, and the persistence of the oil price shock may affect the timing of the rate cut [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Inflation Data - The CPI reading in February basically conforms to the month - shifting effect. The year - on - year increases of CPI and core CPI from January to February are similar to those in December last year. The month - on - month increase of core CPI in February and the cumulative month - on - month increase from January to February are the highest in the same period since 2013 [3] Oil Price Impact on Monetary Policy - China imported about 42% of its total crude oil from six Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar) in 2025. The oil price shock caused by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has an impact on China's imported inflation [3] - A short - term oil price shock (1 - 2 months) has little impact on China's monetary policy rhythm, while a long - term shock may postpone the policy rate cut. The central bank may wait for supply - chain adjustment and negative impacts on the global economy and external demand before cutting rates [3] Policy Outlook - The government work report of the Two Sessions in 2026 aims to promote price level recovery and economic virtuous cycle [3] - The report maintains the view that the monetary policy this year is more flexible, with 1 - 2 possible 10BP policy rate cuts, and the oil price shock may affect the timing [3]

Market Performance - U.S. stocks experienced a decline on Friday, with the Dow Jones index dropping over 500 points during the session due to the latest inflation data [1] - The Nasdaq recorded a decline of more than 3% in February, marking its weakest monthly performance since March of the previous year [1] - The S&P 500 fell nearly 1% last month, while the Dow managed a slight increase of approximately 0.2% [1] Analyst Insights - Wall Street analysts frequently update stock picks, but their track records in predicting market movements are not consistently impressive [2] - There is significant variability in analyst ratings and price targets for individual stocks, leading to confusion among investors regarding which analyst's opinion to trust [2]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing a mild upward trend, primarily driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, alongside a generally strong USD environment [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are cooling, with the January meeting minutes reinforcing a "wait and see" approach, focusing on bringing inflation back to 2% [1] - The market anticipates a low probability of rate cuts in March, with expectations for rates to remain in the 3.50% to 3.75% range [1] - In contrast, the Bank of Canada has cut rates four times in 2025 by a total of 100 basis points, maintaining the key rate at 2.25% and signaling a long-term hold unless significant changes occur in the economic outlook [1][2] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The overall strength of the USD, reflected in a 0.14% increase in the USD index to 97.844, supports the USD/CAD exchange rate [2] - The Bank of Canada has lowered its GDP growth forecasts, predicting a growth rate of 1.2% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, indicating a weak economic outlook that diminishes support for the CAD [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD exchange rate is showing a mild upward trend, with recent price action rebounding from mid-February lows and finding support around 1.3690 [2] - If the exchange rate can maintain above the 1.3690 support level, it may test previous highs around 1.3724, with resistance concentrated between 1.3705 and 1.3724 [2] - The future trajectory of the USD/CAD exchange rate will depend on Federal Reserve policy decisions and Canadian economic data performance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may consider raising interest rates in March if the January monthly inflation data shows an unexpected increase [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The employment market remains tight, with the unemployment rate significantly below the current full employment level [1] - There is speculation that the RBA might raise rates again in mid-March following a potential increase in February [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - It is more likely that the RBA will downplay the significance of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and wait for the more comprehensive quarterly CPI data to be released in late April [1]