关键时刻，特朗普预告大动作。 在美国政府"停摆"的背景下，美国总统特朗普当地时间10月3日晚间宣布，将于10月5日在弗吉尼亚州诺 福克市主持一场盛大的美国海军庆典，以庆祝美国海军250周年纪念日。他特别强调，这场活动将是美 国"海军史上规模最大的庆典"。 值得注意的是，美国政府"停摆"的影响正在显现。10月4日，据央视新闻，美国国务院网站最新公告显 示，受政府"停摆"影响，部分美国国内对领事服务的支持将被暂停，美国务院网站内容的更新也受到限 制。标普全球评级表示，经济部门估计，美国联邦政府"停摆"每持续一周，经济增长就可能下降0.1— 0.2个百分点。 特朗普重大预告 10月4日，据环球网综合英国《独立报》、乌克兰国家新闻社（UNN）等媒体报道，在因美国政府"停 摆"导致美军人员面临无薪工作的背景下，美国总统特朗普当地时间10月3日晚间在其社交平台上宣布， 他将于10月5日在弗吉尼亚州诺福克市主持一场盛大的美国海军庆典，以庆祝美国海军即将于10月13日 迎来的250周年纪念日。他称这场活动将是美国"海军史上规模最大的庆典"。 特朗普在帖文中表示，他将与夫人梅拉尼娅、国防部长赫格塞思及海军部长费伦共同参加此次庆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces significant challenges in formulating interest rate policy amid a weak labor market and high inflation, compounded by the potential delay in key economic data due to the government shutdown [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Data and Federal Reserve's Challenges - The government shutdown may delay the release of important economic data, including the employment report, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [2]. - Federal Reserve officials are concerned about whether the labor market has weakened enough to warrant recession fears, and how much they can lower interest rates without exacerbating inflation [2][3]. - Alternative data sources, such as ADP and Indeed, are being utilized to gauge labor market dynamics, but inflation-related data remains scarce [2][3]. Group 2: Divergence in Federal Reserve's Policy Actions - In the previous month, the Federal Reserve voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [4]. - The median forecast among Federal Reserve officials suggests two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, but there is significant disagreement among officials regarding the frequency of future cuts [4]. - Some officials express hesitation in making further policy adjustments due to the lack of reliable data, indicating a potential preference to maintain the current policy stance [4][5]. Group 3: Perspectives from Economists - Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve official, believes that the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates again in October due to concerns about the labor market, emphasizing the difficulty in proving that the labor market is out of danger without key employment data [5]. - Economists highlight that the Federal Reserve is not making decisions blindly; they are actively seeking information and have previously navigated government shutdowns by utilizing available resources [5]. - The interruption in data releases may lead to increased market volatility, which could further influence the Federal Reserve's policy direction [5].

Group 1 - The article discusses various economic indicators and events scheduled for October, including employment data and consumer confidence indices in the US and Eurozone [2][3] - Key dates include the release of the US September ADP employment numbers and the unemployment rate, as well as the Eurozone's August unemployment rate [2] - The article highlights the importance of the US non-farm payroll data and the consumer confidence index for October, which are critical for assessing economic health [3] Group 2 - The article mentions the upcoming release of China's September industrial profits and the significance of these figures for understanding the country's economic performance [3] - It also notes the scheduled announcements from central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, which could impact market expectations [3] - The article emphasizes the relevance of oil inventory data and production numbers, which are crucial for the energy sector [2][3]

（来源：ETF炼金师） 上周，美股在美联储"鹰派"信号与降息预期不一致的背景下经历了明显的震荡，最终以收跌告终。标普 500指数下跌0.31%，而纳斯达克综合指数则下滑0.65%。美联储主席鲍威尔的评论，将美股估值视 为"相当高"，被市场广泛解读为对当前市场过热情绪的警示，导致依赖流动性的科技股面临压力。 来源：市场资讯 与此同时，市场上关于基金公司的限购调整动作频繁，尤其是美股宽基类QDII基金受到市场关注，多 只产品下调了单日申购额度。这一变化可能会影响投资者的申购策略及市场流动性，值得密切关注。 在通胀数据方面，8月核心个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数环比上涨0.2%，符合市场预期，缓解了周五 交易日的一部分市场情绪。尽管当前美股估值偏高，但市场依然对10月和12月的降息预期保持乐观，认 为美联储可能继续采取宽松政策。此外，鲍威尔在全球央行年会上强调需关注就业市场潜在的走弱风 险，为未来的政策调整留出了空间，市场对10月美股的走势依然持有一定的上行动能预期。 在QDII基金方面，上周整体折溢价水平小幅回升，特别是美股宽基类基金的表现尤为显著，平均上涨 达1.68%。此类基金的溢价回升，反映出市场对相关资产 ...

9月29日周一，受美国政府可能停摆的风险因素影响，美元下跌。受美元走弱和美联储进一步降息的预期推动，金价首次突破每盎司3800美元的关 键水平。欧股集体高开，亚洲股市多数上涨。 欧洲斯托克50指数开盘涨0.33%，英国富时100指数涨0.34%，法国CAC40指数涨0.36%，德国DAX指数涨0.41%。 亚洲股市方面，日经225下跌0.89%，报44940.87，韩国综指上涨1.49%，报3436.99，富时海峡指数上涨0.23%，报4274.9。 美元指数下跌近0.26%，报97.94。金属商品走强，现货黄金触及每盎司3805.88美元的历史新高，现货白银大涨超2%至46美元/盎司，创十四年新 高，铂金、钯金均上涨，布油小幅下挫，下跌0.03%。 核心市场走势如下： 受到美国政府可能停摆的影响，欧洲斯托克50指数开盘涨0.33%。 英国富时100指数涨0.34%。 欧洲斯托克50指数开盘涨0.33%。 英国富时100指数涨0.34%。 法国CAC 40指数涨0.36%。 德国DAX指数涨0.41%。 日经225指数下跌0.8%。 韩国综指上涨1.49%，报3436.99，本月涨幅达7.8%。 富时海峡指数 ...

Market Overview - International gold prices rose again on September 26, closing at $3780.42 per ounce after reaching a high of $3783.74 [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 8.87 tons, bringing the total to 1005.72 tons [8] Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for August recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, matching market expectations, while the year-on-year rate remained at 2.9% [3] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for September fell to 55.1, below the expected 55.4, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment due to concerns over high prices and the job market [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman indicated that the neutral interest rate is expected to be in the range of 3%-4% and favors a gradual approach to rate adjustments [4] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 10.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 89.3% [8] Geopolitical Developments - Reports suggest that former President Trump is open to relaxing restrictions on Ukraine's use of U.S. long-range weapons against targets in Russia, although no specific commitments were made [6] - Hamas has not received new proposals from mediators regarding negotiations with Israel, following a recent assassination incident [7]

Core Viewpoint - The PCE report indicates strong consumer spending growth, exceeding expectations, which aligns with the recently revised GDP report showing increased consumer expenditure [1] Economic Indicators - Both overall and core inflation data met expectations, providing reassurance as these are key indicators closely monitored by the Federal Reserve [1] - The rise in consumer spending, coupled with inflation data meeting expectations, suggests a stable economic environment [1] Market Reactions - Recent stock market volatility is partly attributed to strong economic growth, raising concerns that this may limit future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts has been a significant factor in the market rebound since April 8 [1]

US stocks edged higher on Friday after the release of closely watched inflation data that met expectations and reinforced bets on further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite gained slightly, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 190 points, or 0.4%. ...

新华财经北京9月26日电路透调查显示，澳洲联储下周将把利率维持在3.60%，因劳动力市场依然紧 张，政策制定者在等待通胀缓解的确切迹象。 穆迪分析澳洲经济主管Sunny Kim Nguyen表示，"澳洲联储几乎没有急于行动的动力，虽然失业率逐步 攀升。但与疫情前的常态相比，劳动力市场仍然相对紧张。因此可以等待，尤其是等待第三季通胀数 据，以确保不会过早重燃物价压力。" （文章来源：新华财经） 尽管分析师仍认为到今年年底利率将降至3.35%，但有几位受访者推迟对11月降息的预期，指因月度通 胀指标上升。在多次降息后，澳洲第二季经济增长回升，失业率也相对稳定，这表明澳洲联储可以放缓 宽松步伐。 ...

换资前言： 喜迎国庆，一年一度的回馈粉丝活动开启了，限时开启免费体验。拒绝马后炮，只有现价单！即日起， 联系我报名均可以直接加入。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周五（9月26日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3748.13美元/盎司附近。现货黄金周四最 高触及3761.46美元/盎司，在初请失业金人数公布后一度跌至3722美元/盎司，但很快受到逢低买盘和避 险买盘支撑，收报3749.18美元/盎司，涨幅约0.38%。当市场的目光都聚焦于美联储的降息路径时，黄 金正站在一个微妙的十字路口。一边是强劲的经济数据和再度抬头的美元，不断拷问着宽松政策的必要 性；另一边则是烽烟四起的地缘政治和蠢蠢欲动的逢低买盘，为金价构筑了坚实的底部。一场由关键通 胀报告主导的多空大战，一触即发。 眼下，所有市场参与者都将目光投向了即将公布的美国8月核心PCE物价指数。这是美联储最青睐的通 胀指标，其表现将直接为美联储的下一步行动提供最关键的依据。市场预计该数据将环比上升0.3%， 同比上升2.7%。正如分析师所指出的，黄金目前面临的最大短期风险，正是PCE数据热于预期。如果 通胀意外上行，将极 ...