美联储在制定货币政策时面临"数据迷雾"，市场转向"数票"模式。12名今年拥有投票权的官员中，已有 5人表示倾向下月维持利率不变，不过美联储三号人物、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯暗示近期可能再次降 息，这一表态提升了市场对12月降息的预期，联邦基金期货显示的降息概率从低于30%反弹至60%以 上。分析认为，12月的决议正在成为多年来最接近的表决，降息和按兵不动的概率五五开。 在取消公布10月份CPI数据后，当地时间上周五（11月21日），美国劳工统计局表示，原定于12月10日 发布的11月份CPI数据，将推迟到12月18日，这意味着美联储在12月10日利率决议时，将再度缺少通胀 数据作为参考。 陷入数据迷雾 12月，美联储在制定货币政策时将面临"数据迷雾"。当地时间上周五（11月21日），美国劳工部下属的 劳工统计局（BLS）在官网发布了对多项数据报告的决定，以及一些报告修订后的发布日期。劳工统计 局表示，将取消原定于11月13日发布的10月份消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。声明解释称，由于拨款中 断，BLS无法收集10月份的调查数据，也无法追溯收集这些数据。 近期，多位美联储官员已经表达了对在"数据迷雾"中制定货币政策 ...

第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 对金价影响的主要压力： 后续重点关注： 美联储的政策信号：这是黄金市场的核心驱动力。务必关注12月FOMC会议前各位美联储官员的讲话，任何关于利率路径的暗示都可能引起市场波动。 美国9月非农数据强劲 (新增11.9万，远超预期5万) ，美联储12月降息预期大幅降温 (概率从上周的45%降至约30%-40%) ，美元走强，利空黄金 潜在支撑：全球科技股暴跌引发避险情绪 ，央行购金的长期趋势仍在 ，金价大跌可能刺激实物黄金需求，利多黄金 关键点位与看法 阻力位：关注 4110美元 和 4130-4140美元 区域。如果金价反弹至这些位置附近并出现上涨乏力迹象，可以考虑轻仓试空。 支撑位：重点关注4020美元。若金价在此企稳并出现看涨K线形态，可考虑轻仓博取反弹。 突破策略：如果金价有效跌破4020美元的支撑，短期下跌空间可能会打开，届时可考虑反弹时轻仓跟进空单。反之，若金价强势突破4140美元，则可能引发 进一步的上行，但当前基本面支持这种走势的概率相对较小。 短期来看，黄金预计会继续在4000美元以上的区间内震荡盘整。一方面，4000美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is influenced by the balance between oil price fluctuations and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, with upcoming U.S. CPI and Canadian inflation data expected to dictate the currency's direction [1] Economic Fundamentals - The USD/CAD exchange rate is affected by differences in the economic fundamentals of the U.S. and Canada, diverging monetary policy expectations, and international oil price trends [1] - U.S. core PCE inflation for October was reported at 3.5%, which was lower than expected, while Federal Reserve officials emphasized maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation, pushing back rate cut expectations to 2025, thus supporting the resilience of the USD [1] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was 2.9%, providing a solid foundation for the USD [1] - In Canada, as an oil-exporting country, the recent decline in international oil prices below $80 per barrel has led to a narrowing trade surplus, creating pressure on the economy [1] - Canada's October CPI year-on-year was 3.1%, above the central bank's 2% target, but core inflation showed a marginal decline, leading to market expectations for potential rate cuts next year, which could suppress the CAD [1] Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD has entered a bullish channel after rebounding from a low of 1.33520, currently trading at 1.4654, with key support levels at 1.4640 and 1.4630 [2] - If the exchange rate breaks below the support level of 1.4620, it may trigger a short-term correction, while resistance levels are concentrated around 1.4660, 1.4680, and the upper boundary of the previous trading range at 1.4700 [2] - Technical indicators suggest a gradual emergence of an upward trend, with MACD showing a slight increase in bullish momentum and the average directional index rising to around 23, indicating a likely range-bound movement between 1.4630 and 1.4670 in the short term [2] - If the price stabilizes above 1.4680, the target could shift towards 1.4700-1.4720; conversely, a drop below 1.4630 could extend the downside to 1.4625-1.4610 [2]

Core Insights - The October CPI shows a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, marking a return to positive growth since July, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, improving for six consecutive months [2] - The PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year but increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first month-on-month increase this year [2] CPI Analysis - The recovery in CPI is attributed to base effects, holiday consumption, and rising gold prices, with food and energy prices showing a narrowing year-on-year decline due to last year's low base [2] - Pork prices remain low at -16% year-on-year, while service prices increased from 0.6% to 0.8% year-on-year, driven by strong travel demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [2] - Travel service prices and gold price increases contributed 0.13% and 0.1% to the core CPI's growth, respectively [2] PPI Analysis - The improvement in PPI is primarily driven by non-ferrous metals, with copper prices rising by 7% month-on-month, leading to significant increases in related prices [3] - The coal price has improved due to anti-involution policies, but steel prices have not followed suit due to low capacity utilization in downstream industries [3] - The main reason for the weak PPI this year is not an imbalance in supply and demand but rather low capacity utilization in downstream sectors [3] Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue a moderate recovery, influenced by last year's low CPI base, but overall improvement may be limited due to potential adjustments in service prices post-holidays and the tapering of old-for-new policies [3] - The PPI outlook remains uncertain due to high bases and global commodity price fluctuations, with ongoing improvements in capacity utilization expected to be gradual [3] - Significant improvements in inflation data will require a restoration of endogenous economic growth momentum and the gradual implementation of anti-involution and growth-stabilizing policies [3]

Core Points - The White House has indicated that key government reports on inflation and the labor market for October may never be released due to the prolonged government shutdown [1][2][3] - The shutdown has severely hindered access to critical economic data, impacting economists, investors, and policymakers [2][4] - The absence of official data has led to increased reliance on private sector reports, which suggest a weakening job market and rising layoffs [4][5] Group 1: Impact of Government Shutdown - The government shutdown has resulted in a significant backlog of important economic reports, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unable to process data [3][4] - The last available unemployment rate was 4.3% in August, with only 22,000 new jobs added, indicating a sharp slowdown in employment growth [5] - The BLS is expected to quickly release the September employment report once the government reopens, but the October data collection has been severely compromised [5][6] Group 2: Challenges in Data Collection - The inability to collect data in October poses challenges for accurately assessing employment conditions, particularly for household surveys that are crucial for calculating the unemployment rate [5][6] - Former BLS officials have expressed skepticism about the feasibility of completing the October inflation report due to the lack of data collection [6][7] - The prolonged shutdown has created unprecedented disruptions for the BLS, which was already facing budget constraints and political pressures [7]

来源：滚动播报 美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，他已告诉特朗普，如果被提名接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席， 他将接受这一职位。哈塞特补充说，他希望在12月的政策会议上实施更大幅度的降息。哈塞特是特朗普 点名的候选人之一。他表示，对鲍威尔在长期政府停摆和好于预期的通胀数据背景下没有采取更激进的 降息感到惊讶。哈塞特说："我认为总统觉得利率可以更低，而我对此表示赞同。"他指出，自己认为有 理由进行50个基点的降息，但预计美联储只会降息25个基点。哈塞特认为政府关门每持续一周，美国 GDP就会减少约150亿美元，并指出9月的通胀数据低于预期。 ...

美联储米兰：不应只看通胀数据表面价值。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 0.2% and rose by 0.2% month-on-month, slightly above seasonal levels, indicating a moderate recovery in prices[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking a six-month consecutive increase and reaching the highest level since March 2024[1] - Food prices decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, impacting the overall CPI negatively by approximately 0.54 percentage points[11] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - In October 2025, the PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first positive growth of the year, while year-on-year it decreased by 2.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points over the previous month[19] - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to improved supply-demand relationships in key industries, effective capacity management, and the release of consumer demand[19] - Prices in the photovoltaic equipment and battery manufacturing sectors saw a reduction in their year-on-year decline, reflecting the positive impact of industrial upgrades and technological innovation[19] Group 3: Economic Signals and Risks - The month-on-month CPI increase signals multiple positive economic indicators, including the effectiveness of demand expansion policies and the recovery of service consumption[16] - However, potential risks remain, such as insufficient effective demand and the cyclical adjustment of agricultural product prices, particularly pork, which may continue to drag down the CPI[16] - The energy prices remain a significant external variable affecting price fluctuations, influenced by international commodity market volatility[16]

白宫的一个账号在10月24日发帖称，原因是"调查员无法部署到现场——这使我们失去了关键数据。"9 月份的通胀数据在停摆期间发布，低于预期，但顽固地保持在3%左右。 更新的数据发布时间表预计要到政府重新开放几天后才会公布，因为负责监督这些发布工作的官员几乎 都被停薪休假了。悬而未决的问题包括11月份的通胀数据是否也会受到影响。周一早上，一位白宫官员 没有立即回应有关计划以及何时可能重新安排数据发布的问题。 9月和10月的月度就业报告均未发布，普遍的预期是，当政府工作人员重返工作岗位后（最早在本周晚 些时候），首批公布的新数据将是9月份的就业数据。Evercore ISI副董事长古哈（Krishna Guha）周一 在一份报告中预测："第一批劳动力数据——延迟的9月份就业报告——应该在停摆结束后的几天内发 布，尽管10月／11月的数据何时以及如何公布仍不确定。" 华盛顿结束政府停摆的新途径，或许能迅速逆转40天停摆带来的一些经济损失，但政府数据的中断可能 需要更长时间才能恢复正常。市场最密切关注的至少部分信息似乎很可能永远丢失，而一旦联邦工作人 员重返工作岗位，一些关于9月份劳动力市场状况的旧数据可能会很快公布。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has created a significant "black hole" in the economy, leading to a backlog of critical economic reports that will soon be released [2] - The September employment report is expected to be released soon, with estimates suggesting it could be available as early as this week or early next week [2] - The shutdown has severely impacted the release of key inflation reports for October, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which may not be published at all [4] Group 2 - The delay in the September employment report and the potential absence of the October inflation reports will hinder the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts in their upcoming meetings [4] - The October employment report is likely to be delayed significantly, possibly until just before the Federal Reserve's next meeting on December 9-10, and may even be combined with the November report [4][6] - The forced leave of hundreds of thousands of federal employees could distort the data in the October report, making it less reliable [6]