Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of a subsidy war in the takeaway tea beverage market, highlighting the contrasting fortunes of different brands as the subsidies end and the industry faces a seasonal downturn [3]. Group 1: Impact of Subsidy Withdrawal - After the cessation of subsidies, many tea shops experienced a dramatic drop in orders, with some reporting as few as ten orders a day compared to previous highs of 70-100 orders [4][6]. - The decline in orders is attributed to seasonal factors and consumer fatigue, with some brands managing to stabilize their sales while others face significant challenges [5][6]. - The overall takeaway market saw a significant shift, with brands like "茉莉奶白" and "一点点" also feeling the effects of reduced consumer interest post-subsidy [6]. Group 2: Winners and Losers in the Market - "古茗" emerged as a notable winner during the subsidy war, rapidly expanding its store count from approximately 9,914 to over 12,000, but is now facing operational pressures as daily sales struggle to meet previous highs [7][8]. - "蜜雪冰城" is identified as the biggest winner, reporting a 39.3% year-on-year revenue increase to 14.87 billion yuan and a net profit growth of 44.1% to 2.72 billion yuan, benefiting from efficient cost management [8]. - Conversely, "奈雪的茶" illustrates the "increased revenue without increased profit" dilemma, with 48.1% of its revenue reliant on takeaway orders, leading to a 14.4% decline in overall revenue [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Challenges - The tea beverage industry is undergoing a rapid transformation, with a net increase of 26,000 stores in the third quarter, while approximately 150,000 stores have closed in the past year, indicating a significant shakeout [10]. - The competitive landscape has intensified, with brands forced to expand rapidly and engage in price wars, leading to a phenomenon of "internal competition" that threatens profitability [10]. - The article emphasizes that while the subsidy war temporarily reshaped consumer price expectations, the long-term sustainability of such strategies remains questionable as brands grapple with high operational costs and market saturation [10].

Core Insights - The takeaway from the article is the impact of the subsidy war on the tea beverage market, highlighting the contrasting fortunes of different brands as the market shifts from a subsidy-driven boom to a more challenging environment. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The subsidy war initiated a surge in orders for tea beverage shops, but as subsidies ceased, many small businesses faced a drastic drop in orders, leading to potential closures [1][2] - Major brands like Mixue Ice Cream and Nai Xue's Tea managed to achieve growth through delivery channels, while many smaller players struggled significantly [1][2] Group 2: Brand Performance - Gu Ming, recognized for its rapid expansion, saw its store count rise from approximately 9,914 in early 2025 to over 12,000 by August, but faced challenges in maintaining daily sales [6] - Mixue Ice Cream emerged as a significant winner, reporting a 39.3% year-on-year revenue increase to 14.87 billion yuan and a net profit growth of 44.1% to 2.72 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [6] - Kudi Coffee also benefited, with sales on platforms like JD surpassing 80 million orders, becoming the first beverage brand to exceed 100 million orders on the platform [7] Group 3: Challenges Faced - Nai Xue's Tea exemplified the "increased revenue without increased profit" dilemma, with 48.1% of its revenue relying on delivery orders, leading to a 14.4% year-on-year revenue decline to 2.178 billion yuan [8] - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a rapid increase in store numbers, with 26,000 new stores opened in the third quarter alone, while approximately 150,000 stores closed in the past year [9][10] - The industry is undergoing intense competition, with brands forced to expand rapidly, leading to a situation where financial performance does not reflect the apparent growth in market presence [10]