另外，研究指出，即便是未参与补贴的商户也难以"置身事外"。在大额外卖补贴下，这些商户面临着显 著的"虹吸效应"——其外卖和堂食消费者纷纷转向参与补贴的商户，使得这些商户陷入"参加补贴利润 少、不参加订单少"的两难境地，部分商户不得不调整经营策略以适应市场竞争格局，最终加入补贴 战。数据分析显示，商户参与补贴的力度越大，越能通过订单的增加来带动营收，但利润下降得越多。 报告认为，堂食体验是餐饮商户的核心竞争力，重视堂食经营的商户在外卖补贴大战下表现出更强的韧 性。数据显示，以堂食为主的商户堂食营收平均降幅显著小于以外卖为主的商户。另外，大额补贴的影 响表现出时序持续、地域差异、商户分化等特点。 品牌连锁商户与独立门店也呈现分化。品牌连锁商户在补贴大战中整体参与度高、投入大，对外卖消费 者的吸引力也较强，同时堂食替代也较为明显。分析显示，大额补贴冲击下，两类商户堂食营收均下 降，但连锁商户的外卖营收获得增益。相比之下，独立门店整体营收面临更大损失。 研究报告显示，大额外卖补贴对堂食的负面影响具有溢出效应，可能波及其他服务消费业态。消费者外 出就餐频率降低，会进一步导致餐馆周边、同一商圈内其他到店消费客流的减少。 ...

Core Insights - The competition in the food delivery market has intensified since July, leading to a 7% average increase in total daily orders for merchants, while their actual revenue has decreased by approximately 4% [1][2] - A study conducted by Fudan University highlights the impact of the subsidy war on restaurant merchants, indicating that while large subsidies stimulate consumer demand, they do not translate into increased revenue for merchants, resulting in a "gain in traffic, loss in profit" scenario [1][2] Summary by Sections Impact of Subsidy Wars - Since the onset of the subsidy wars in April, the average total profit for merchants has decreased by 1.7% during the competition period, with a more significant decline of 8.9% during the intensified competition phase [2] - Merchants that participate more heavily in subsidies see an increase in orders but also experience a greater decline in profits [3] Merchant Dynamics - Non-participating merchants are also affected by a "siphoning effect," where consumers shift to subsidized merchants, forcing them to reconsider their strategies [3] - Merchants focusing on dine-in services show greater resilience compared to those primarily reliant on delivery, with dine-in revenue declines being significantly smaller [3] Market Regulation - The National Market Regulation Administration has urged major platforms like Ele.me, Meituan, and JD to regulate promotional behaviors and foster a healthier ecosystem for consumers, merchants, and delivery personnel [4] - The study recommends establishing a regulatory framework for platform subsidies to protect small merchants and ensure fair pricing practices [4]

$\left(\frac{\mathrm{U}_{\mathrm{max}}}{\mathrm{U}_{\mathrm{max}}\mathrm{U}_{\mathrm{min}}}\right)$ |  | 行业研究·行业快评 |  | 社会服务·酒店餐饮 | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 曾光 | 0755-82150809 | zengguang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980511040003 | | 证券分析师： | 张鲁 | 010-88005377 | zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120002 | | 联系人： | 周瑛皓 | | zhouyinghao@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月19日 餐饮行业动态点评 从瑞幸和百胜中国看外卖补贴大战的得与失 2025 年 11 月 17 日，瑞幸咖啡披露 2025Q3 经营业绩数据；百胜中国举办线下投资者交流日。 国信社服观点： 1）外卖大战下 ...

Core Insights - Yum China reported a strong performance for Q3 2025, with total revenue increasing by 4% year-on-year to $3.2 billion, and operating profit rising by 8% to $400 million [1][2][3] - The company achieved positive same-store sales growth for the second consecutive quarter, with a net addition of 536 stores, bringing the total to 17,514 [1][2][3] Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for Q3 reached $3.2 billion, with system sales also up by 4% and same-store sales increasing by 1% [2][3] - The restaurant profit margin expanded to 17.3%, with operating profit growing by 8% year-on-year [2][3] - KFC's system sales grew by 5% and same-store sales by 2%, while Pizza Hut's system sales increased by 4% and same-store sales by 1% [2][3] Store Expansion - The company accelerated its store expansion, adding 536 new stores in Q3, with a total of 17,514 stores now [1][8] - KFC and Pizza Hut have 12,640 and 4,022 stores respectively, with a goal to reach 20,000 stores by the second half of 2026 [8][12] - Franchise stores account for 41% of KFC and 27% of Pizza Hut, aiding in expansion into new cities [11][12] Delivery and Customer Trends - Delivery sales grew by 23% year-on-year, now accounting for 51% of total sales, up from 40% in the previous year [4][7] - Average transaction value for Pizza Hut decreased by 13% to 70 yuan, while same-store transaction volume increased by 17% [3][4] - KFC's average transaction value was 38 yuan, with plans to introduce lower-priced meal options [4] Strategic Developments - Yum Brands announced a strategic review of Pizza Hut, indicating potential changes to enhance shareholder value [17][18] - Yum China expressed confidence in Pizza Hut's operations in China, emphasizing a cautious approach to potential investment opportunities [18][20] - The company is exploring new store formats and product categories, including partnerships with large enterprises for franchise expansion [11][12][17]

Group 1 - JD Group's founder and chairman Liu Qiangdong participated in a live streaming event, marking the restart of "user meetups" and showcased cooking skills by preparing a local dish [2] - In the second quarter of 2025, JD Group reported a revenue of 356.7 billion RMB (approximately 49.8 billion USD), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.4%, surpassing market expectations and setting a record for growth rate in nearly three years [2] Group 2 - JD has firmly stated its opposition to "zero-yuan purchases" that create market bubbles, emphasizing a commitment to avoid maliciously inflating order volumes to demonstrate market position [3] - In the second quarter, JD's food delivery business achieved a daily order volume exceeding 25 million, covering 350 cities and involving over 1.5 million quality dining establishments [3] - JD has signed labor contracts with nearly 150,000 full-time delivery riders, providing them with social insurance benefits, and has partnered with numerous leading companies to offer high-quality dining solutions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of "Meituan Pin Hao Fan" by Heytea, traditionally positioned as a high-end brand, indicates a strategic shift towards embracing competitive pricing and exploring new growth opportunities in lower-tier markets [3][7][31]. Group 1: Pricing Strategy and Market Expansion - Heytea has introduced classic products at significantly reduced prices, ranging from 6.9 to 9.9 yuan, which is about 60% off the regular price, marking a rare occurrence in its pricing history [4][11]. - The focus of the "Pin Hao Fan" initiative is on lower-tier markets such as Qingyuan in Guangdong and Xiangyang in Hubei, while major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are not included in this pricing strategy for now [5][10]. - The user demographic for "Pin Hao Fan" consists of over 70% individuals born in the 1990s and 2000s, including both urban workers and students from lower-tier markets, who are highly price-sensitive [10][11]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape and Industry Dynamics - The new strategy reflects the intense competition within the new tea beverage industry, which has seen a shift from a previous stance of avoiding price wars to actively participating in platform subsidy battles [13][31]. - The industry is currently in a phase of stock competition, with a total of 429,000 milk tea shops projected by August 2025, and a significant number of new openings juxtaposed with closures [17][18]. - The recent "subsidy war" initiated by major platforms has led to a 27% year-on-year increase in daily orders, benefiting low-margin, high-frequency new tea beverages [19][20]. Group 3: Financial Implications and Operational Challenges - Despite the short-term benefits of increased orders and revenue from low pricing, the profit margins for merchants, especially franchisees, have become concerning, with reported declines in actual revenue ratios by 10-15% [24][25]. - The operational strain on staff has increased due to high promotional activities, leading to challenges in maintaining service quality and managing customer service pressures [26][32]. - The long-term sustainability of this low-price strategy remains uncertain, as brands must navigate the balance between competitive pricing and maintaining brand integrity [33].

Core Viewpoint - The intense competition among major food delivery platforms (JD.com, Meituan, and Alibaba) has led to significant profit declines, prompting regulatory scrutiny and calls for fair competition practices [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - JD.com reported a net profit of 6.2 billion RMB for Q2 2025, a decline of over 50% year-on-year [3]. - Meituan's adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 1.49 billion RMB, down 89% year-on-year [3]. - Alibaba's non-GAAP net profit for Q2 2025 was 33.51 billion RMB, a decrease of 18% year-on-year, with less impact from food delivery due to late subsidies [3]. - Collectively, the three platforms lost over 20 billion RMB in profits compared to the same quarter last year [1]. Group 2: User Engagement and Marketing Expenses - Despite profit declines, all three platforms saw record high monthly active users, with JD.com and Meituan achieving over 40% year-on-year growth in user engagement [2]. - JD.com's marketing expenses surged by 127.6% to 27 billion RMB in Q2 2025, while Meituan's marketing expenses increased by 51.8% to 22.5 billion RMB [3]. - Alibaba's sales and marketing expenses as of June 30, 2025, increased by 21.3% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - JD.com emphasized healthy growth in its food delivery business, achieving strategic goals through effective collaboration with existing operations [4]. - Meituan's CEO highlighted the company's commitment to maintaining market leadership through competitive strategies and support for merchants and riders [4]. - Alibaba's CEO noted significant investments in instant retail, leading to high consumer engagement and order volumes [4]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the earnings reports, JD.com and Meituan's stock prices fell, while Alibaba's stock rose by 12.9% due to its less impacted food delivery business and strong AI-related revenue growth [4].

Core Viewpoint - The intense subsidy war among major food delivery platforms, including JD.com, Meituan, and Alibaba, has led to significant profit declines, with the impact becoming evident in their Q2 financial reports [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - JD.com reported a Q2 2025 revenue of RMB 356.7 billion, a 22.4% increase from Q2 2024, but its net profit fell by 50.8% to RMB 6.2 billion, with an operating profit margin dropping to -0.2% from 3.6% [4]. - Meituan's Q2 2025 revenue grew by 11.7% to RMB 91.8 billion, but its adjusted net profit plummeted by 89% to RMB 1.49 billion, with operating profit down 75.6% to RMB 3.7 billion, resulting in a margin decrease of 19.4 percentage points to 5.7% [5][6]. - Alibaba's Q2 2025 revenue was RMB 247.65 billion, a 2% year-on-year increase, with a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 33.51 billion, down 18% from RMB 40.69 billion in Q2 2024 [7]. Group 2: Marketing and Sales Expenses - JD.com increased its marketing expenses by 127.6% to RMB 27 billion, representing 7.6% of its revenue, up from 4.1% in the previous year [9][10]. - Meituan's sales and marketing expenses rose by 51.8% to RMB 22.5 billion, accounting for 24.5% of its revenue, an increase of 6.5 percentage points year-on-year [11]. - Alibaba's sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue increased from 13.3% to 21.3%, driven by investments in its new services [11]. Group 3: Market Impact - Following the disappointing financial results, stock prices for JD.com, Meituan, and Alibaba fell significantly, with Meituan dropping 12.55%, JD.com over 5%, and Alibaba over 4% on August 28 [13][14]. - Since April, JD.com shares have decreased by approximately 25%, Meituan by 34%, and Alibaba by 8%, contrasting with a 5% increase in the Hang Seng Tech Index [14][15].

Core Insights - The intense subsidy war among major food delivery platforms, including JD.com, Meituan, and Alibaba, has led to significant profit declines, revealing the adverse effects of irrational competition in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - JD.com reported a revenue of RMB 356.7 billion for Q2 2025, a 22.4% increase from Q2 2024, but its net profit fell by 50.8% to RMB 6.2 billion [3]. - Meituan's revenue grew by 11.7% to RMB 91.8 billion in Q2 2025, but its adjusted net profit plummeted by 89% to RMB 1.49 billion [4][5]. - Alibaba's revenue for Q2 2025 was RMB 247.65 billion, a 2% year-on-year increase, with a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 33.51 billion, down 18% from the previous year [6]. Group 2: Marketing and Sales Expenses - JD.com increased its marketing expenses by 127.6% to RMB 27 billion, accounting for 7.6% of its revenue in Q2 2025 [8][9]. - Meituan's sales and marketing expenses rose by 51.8% to RMB 22.5 billion, representing 24.5% of its revenue [10]. - Alibaba's sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue increased from 13.3% to 21.3%, driven by investments in its new services [11]. Group 3: Strategic Outcomes - JD.com claims to have achieved its initial strategic goals in the food delivery sector, with growth in order volume and merchant numbers [12]. - Meituan noted that its marketing activities accelerated new user conversions and increased user engagement through its membership program [13]. - Alibaba's new service, Taobao Flash Sale, contributed to a 25% year-on-year increase in monthly active users of the Taobao app [14]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the disappointing financial results, stock prices for JD.com, Meituan, and Alibaba fell significantly, with Meituan experiencing a 12.55% drop on August 28 [14]. - Since April, JD.com shares have declined by approximately 25%, Meituan by 34%, and Alibaba by 8%, contrasting with a 5% increase in the Hang Seng Tech Index [15].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing subsidy war in the food delivery sector, driven by platforms like Taobao, Meituan, and JD, is not beneficial for the long-term health of the industry, as stated by Gu Ming's founder Wang Yunan and Meituan's CEO Wang Xing [3][4]. Group 1: Impact of Subsidies - Gu Ming's founder indicated that long-term reliance on delivery subsidies is detrimental to franchise operations and the overall industry [3]. - The "zero purchase" campaign launched in July had an impact of approximately 4 to 5 yuan per order for Gu Ming, with lower-priced brands benefiting more from this initiative [3]. - The competitive landscape for food delivery intensified from the second quarter of the year, with the first quarter remaining unaffected [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Gu Ming reported that the overall impact of the subsidy activities on its first half performance was limited, and the intensity of subsidies has decreased since August [3]. - Meituan's revenue for the second quarter of 2025 grew by 11.7% to 91.8 billion yuan, with an operating profit of 226 million yuan and an adjusted net profit of 1.493 billion yuan [4]. Group 3: Strategic Outlook - Meituan's CEO reaffirmed the company's long-term profit assumption of "1 yuan per order, with a profit margin of about 3%" despite increased strategic investments in the third quarter that may pressure short-term financial metrics [4]. - The CEO emphasized that Meituan will continue to invest to meet consumer demands and maintain its market leadership, believing that competition will eventually return to rationality [4].