证券时报记者吴瞬 在今年外卖补贴大战以及监管部门约谈之后，8月1日，美团、饿了么、京东三大外卖平台纷纷发布公 告，宣布将共同抵制"内卷式"竞争，维护行业健康生态，各大外卖平台之间的硝烟暂歇。 不过，证券时报记者近期调查和实际体验发现，目前仍有一些平台推出高额补贴，有一些甚至是"19减 18"等极为接近"0元购"的超高补贴：一杯奶茶到手有的甚至低至2到3元，一份快餐到手只要8元…… 对此，不少商家和专业人士均表示，这是对外卖和餐饮行业生态的长期破坏。北京大学汇丰商学院副教 授叶韦明表示，不正常的高额补贴对实体餐饮的冲击集中体现为从利润侵蚀到质量妥协的恶性循环。餐 饮业本就面临高固定成本（租金、人力）与低需求弹性，平台补贴迫使商家陷入囚徒困境：不参与则流 量断流，参与则毛利压缩至临界点，最终只能通过降低食材品质维持生存。 线上线下价格依旧失衡 "外卖圈的大战结束了，单少了很多。"近期，记者在深圳走访不少外卖配送员了解到，自8月1日三大平 台宣布不再"内卷"和不再推出不理性高额补贴以来，外卖配送员们的订单量在近期显著下滑。在龙岗一 家商场门口等单的一位外卖配送员表示："补贴最高峰的时候，一些奶茶店都爆单了，我们外卖 ...

Core Insights - The intense "subsidy war" among major food delivery platforms has led to record-breaking order volumes, but many restaurant operators report that their profits have not increased and, in fact, their financial situations have worsened [1][3]. Financial Analysis - A restaurant owner detailed their financials for June, showing a total revenue of 162,215.8 yuan from 4,158 orders on Meituan, but after accounting for customer subsidies (30,452.2 yuan), platform commissions (8,409.81 yuan), and delivery service fees (20,919.86 yuan), the net income was reduced to 102,433.93 yuan [1]. - Fixed costs for the restaurant, including rent and labor, amounted to approximately 34,000 yuan allocated to the delivery business, with food costs calculated at 78,774.4 yuan, leading to a real profit of -10,340.47 yuan for June [3]. Operational Challenges - Restaurant operators are facing a "loss-making" situation where they are essentially "losing money to attract customers," highlighting the unsustainable nature of the current subsidy-driven business model [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing competition among major food delivery platforms in China, particularly focusing on the recent promotional activities and regulatory responses aimed at curbing excessive subsidies and ensuring a healthier market environment [3][5][10]. Group 1: Promotional Activities - Major food delivery platforms, including Meituan, Taobao Shanguo (including Ele.me), and JD.com, have committed to "regulating promotions" following regulatory discussions [3][5]. - The "First Cup of Milk Tea in Autumn" promotion, which has become a staple marketing event since 2020, is set to take place on August 7, with Taobao Shanguo launching the event on July 31, featuring celebrity endorsements [4][6]. - Meituan followed suit by launching its own promotion on August 1, offering 1 million free milk teas, with various celebrities involved [4][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape has shifted with JD.com entering the market in February, disrupting the previous duopoly of Meituan and Ele.me [11]. - The article highlights a significant increase in order volumes and sales for certain merchants, with one merchant reporting a nearly 50% increase in sales on August 2 compared to the previous day, largely driven by Taobao Shanguo's promotions [8][12]. - The promotional strategies have led to a notable increase in customer engagement, with some merchants experiencing a doubling of order volumes compared to earlier months [11][12]. Group 3: Merchant Perspectives - Merchants express mixed feelings about the promotional activities, noting that while the current promotions are less aggressive than previous "0 Yuan Purchase" campaigns, they still attract customers [6][9]. - Merchants are participating in large discount activities, often sharing the burden of subsidies with the platforms, which can impact their profitability [9][10]. - The article indicates that while some merchants may not profit significantly from low-cost items, higher-priced items can still yield profits despite the discounts [10][11]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The regulatory framework aims to address issues such as "false advertising" and "exclusive competition," while allowing platforms to innovate within compliance [10][13]. - Analysts suggest that the focus of the subsidy wars has shifted from merely acquiring users to increasing transaction frequency and extracting value from existing customers [13][14]. - The long-term challenge for platforms lies in balancing user demands for low prices with the need for sustainable profitability for merchants and fair treatment of delivery personnel [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing demand for affordable and high-quality food options across various market segments, highlighting the success of Meituan's "Pin Hao Fan" as a response to this demand [1][3][20]. Group 1: Market Trends - The demand for cost-effective meals is not limited to lower-tier cities; even high-tier cities have a significant need for affordable options, which has been historically overlooked [1]. - The rise of "two dishes rice" in Hong Kong reflects a broader trend where consumers are increasingly valuing affordable yet satisfying meals, indicating a shift in dining preferences [3][20]. Group 2: "Pin Hao Fan" Overview - "Pin Hao Fan" was launched in June 2020 and has rapidly grown to over 270 million users, with daily orders increasing from 1 million in 2022 to over 35 million by July 2025 [5][13]. - The service operates on a simplified model, offering a limited number of fixed-price meal options, typically ranging from 10 to 15 yuan, which enhances efficiency and reduces costs [13][16]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency - The model focuses on reducing SKU variety, concentrating on a few popular items, which streamlines operations and enhances profitability for merchants [16][17]. - By aggregating orders and optimizing delivery routes, "Pin Hao Fan" significantly improves operational efficiency compared to traditional food delivery services [16][18]. Group 4: Consumer Trust and Brand Quality - To address consumer concerns about hygiene and quality, "Pin Hao Fan" has initiated the "Million Bright Kitchen" program, promoting transparency in food preparation environments [24][27]. - The platform aims to shift the perception that low prices equate to low quality, ensuring that consumers can trust the affordability of the meals offered [22][27]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Unlike traditional platforms that rely heavily on subsidies, "Pin Hao Fan" focuses on sustainable pricing strategies that do not compromise merchant profitability [28][29]. - The service is positioned as a long-term solution to the challenges faced in the food delivery market, moving away from unsustainable subsidy wars [28][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (9987.HK / YUMC.US) with a target price of HKD 476.9, indicating a potential upside of 36% from the current stock price of HKD 370.8 [1][5]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, Yum China's total revenue increased by 4% year-on-year to USD 2.8 billion, with system sales also growing by 4%. Operating profit rose by 14% to USD 304 million, exceeding market expectations. Net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 1% to USD 215 million, primarily impacted by an investment loss of USD 18 million [1][2]. - The company experienced a positive same-store sales growth of 1% for the first time since last year, driven by improved efficiency and a reduction in expense ratios due to same-store growth. Additionally, the recent competition in the food delivery market contributed to a 22% increase in delivery revenue, which now accounts for 45% of total revenue [2][5]. - KFC's revenue grew by 4.1% to USD 2.09 billion, with same-store sales also increasing by 1%. The restaurant's profit margin improved to 16.9%, benefiting from favorable raw material prices and operational efficiencies [3]. - Pizza Hut's operating profit increased by 16% to USD 46 million, with a profit margin of 8.3%, marking a significant improvement. The company plans to maintain its store opening guidance for the year, targeting 1,600 to 1,800 new stores [4][5]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, Yum China reported total revenue of USD 4.34 billion, a 2% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of USD 510 million, also up by 1% [2]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is USD 944.6 million for 2025, USD 1.015 billion for 2026, and USD 1.05 billion for 2027, with corresponding EPS of HKD 20.07, HKD 21.57, and HKD 22.24 [5][9]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a projected revenue growth rate of 2.89% for 2025 and 6.98% for 2026, with a net profit margin of 8.12% for 2025 [9][10]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs both comparable company analysis and DCF methods for valuation, suggesting a target price of HKD 476.9 based on a 23x PE ratio for 2025, with an estimated EPS of HKD 20.07 [11][12]. - The DCF valuation estimates a reasonable market capitalization of HKD 181.9 billion, translating to a stock price of HKD 492.3 [11][14].

Group 1 - The core point of the articles is the ongoing competition among major food delivery platforms like Meituan, Taobao, and Ele.me, which are shifting from aggressive zero-cost promotions to more regulated subsidy strategies while still engaging in significant promotional activities [1][2][7] - On July 18, the State Administration for Market Regulation urged food delivery platforms to further standardize promotional behaviors and engage in rational competition to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the catering service industry [2] - The "first cup of milk tea in autumn" event, which has become a marketing staple since 2020, is set to kick off on August 7, with Taobao already launching its promotional activities [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the cessation of zero-cost promotions, platforms are still engaging in substantial subsidies, with merchants bearing around 70% of the costs [2][5] - Taobao's goal of achieving 100 million orders during its flash sale indicates a dual strategy: maintaining its dominance in e-commerce and rapidly cultivating consumer habits in instant retail [7] - The overlap of consumer bases between food delivery and e-commerce is not a concern, as the industry aims to expand consumption frequency through diversified shopping scenarios [9] Group 3 - The ongoing subsidy war is expected to continue until the end of the year, with the need to cultivate high-loyalty consumer habits within a short timeframe to avoid failure [9] - The true victims of the subsidy war are offline supermarkets, which are increasingly becoming storage facilities for instant retail rather than active participants in the market [10][12] - Major supermarkets with established brands, such as Walmart and Pang Donglai, are refraining from participating in the subsidy war as a strategic self-preservation measure [12]

Core Viewpoint - Major food delivery platforms, including Meituan, Taobao Flash Sale, and JD Delivery, have collectively emphasized the importance of not selling goods and services at prices significantly below cost, aiming to resist malicious competition in the market [1][2][20]. Group 1: Market Response and Regulatory Actions - The recent actions by these platforms are seen as a response to the State Administration for Market Regulation's previous actions, which included discussions with major players like Ele.me, Meituan, and JD to ensure compliance with laws and regulations [2][20]. - The ongoing "takeout war" that began earlier this year is showing signs of resolution, as platforms are now focusing on sustainable competition rather than aggressive price wars [3][20]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The "takeout war" escalated in February 2023, with JD launching its delivery service and offering substantial subsidies, prompting Meituan and Alibaba to respond with their own initiatives [4][20]. - By mid-July, the total daily order volume in the food delivery market surged from an average of 100 million orders at the beginning of the year to approximately 250 million orders, with Meituan accounting for 150 million, Ele.me for 80 million, and JD for over 10 million [7][20]. Group 3: Financial Implications of Subsidies - Despite the apparent benefits of subsidies for platforms and merchants, the actual financial impact reveals that many merchants are struggling with profitability due to high costs associated with materials, subsidies, and platform fees [19][20]. - A detailed cost analysis indicated that while JD offers the most favorable conditions for consumers, Meituan provides the highest actual income for merchants, with JD's merchant income sometimes exceeding consumer payment prices due to strong subsidies [11][12][20]. Group 4: Industry Challenges and Future Outlook - The intense competition and reliance on extreme subsidies are leading to unsustainable business practices, with many merchants reporting declining profit margins and increased operational challenges [19][20]. - The collective commitment from major platforms to resist irrational competition reflects a growing consensus within the industry about the need for a more sustainable approach to growth, moving away from high subsidy strategies [20].

Core Viewpoint - The new Anti-Unfair Competition Law will take effect in October 2025, prohibiting platforms from passing more than 70% of subsidy costs onto merchants, with violators facing fines up to 5 million yuan. This regulation marks a significant shift in the ongoing subsidy war among major food delivery platforms, which is now seen as a capital consumption battle with a deadline [1][13][24]. Group 1: Background and Market Dynamics - JD.com entered the food delivery market with a "0 commission + 10 billion subsidies + full insurance for riders" strategy in February 2025, prompting competitors like Meituan and Ele.me to engage in a subsidy war [3]. - By April 2025, Ele.me initiated a subsidy program exceeding 10 billion yuan, while Alibaba upgraded its Taobao platform to include a flash purchase feature, investing 50 billion yuan in subsidies to reclaim market share [3][6]. - The competition intensified, with Meituan and Ele.me launching aggressive promotional campaigns, leading to a significant drop in average order value from 30 yuan to 15 yuan, despite a surge in daily orders [13][19]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions - The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) held two rounds of talks with major platforms, addressing issues like unfair competition and rider rights. The first meeting on May 13, 2025, focused on broad issues, while the second on July 18 targeted specific problems related to subsidy practices [9][15][17]. - The new law will enforce stricter regulations on promotional activities, aiming to eliminate irrational competition and ensure a healthier ecosystem for consumers, merchants, and riders [15][24]. Group 3: Financial Implications and Market Strategies - Goldman Sachs predicts that the three major platforms could incur losses of up to 90 billion yuan in the coming months due to ongoing subsidy wars [1]. - Meituan reported a peak of 1.5 billion daily orders, while Ele.me's flash purchase service reached around 800 million daily orders, indicating a fierce competition for market share [20][23]. - The platforms are using capital to secure user bases, with JD.com focusing on quality delivery and supply chain efficiency, while Meituan and Ele.me leverage high-frequency user engagement to drive sales in higher-margin categories [19][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As the new Anti-Unfair Competition Law comes into effect, the intensity of subsidies is expected to decline, leading to a shift towards efficiency and differentiated competition among platforms [24]. - The future winners in the food delivery market will be those who can convert delivery efficiency into merchant profits and foster brand loyalty among users, emphasizing long-term sustainability over short-term capital expenditure [24].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing subsidy war in the food delivery industry is exerting varying levels of pressure on businesses of different sizes, with larger chains facing challenges in restoring their original pricing structures while smaller businesses are increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of aggressive pricing strategies [1][2][4][5]. Group 1: Impact on Different Sized Businesses - Larger chain brands are struggling to return to their previous pricing systems due to irrational subsidies leading to "false prosperity," as highlighted by a tea brand representative [2]. - Local brands, such as "鹅佬柒铺," report a 15% decrease in net revenue per order due to heightened price sensitivity among consumers and competition from high-end brands engaging in price wars [4]. - Smaller businesses, like "老中医喝冰饮," are experiencing a drop in average order value by 7-8 yuan, significantly impacting their profit margins due to their limited bargaining power and higher operational costs [5]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - The surge in orders due to subsidies has increased the workload for frontline staff, with one tea brand noting that doubling orders requires doubling staff, creating uncertainty in labor costs [4]. - A national chain's operations director mentioned that their average order value plummeted from 25 yuan to just over 10 yuan, forcing them to participate in the price war to retain customers [4]. - Economic experts suggest that the focus on large chain sales growth overlooks the negative impacts on high-priced quality merchants and small businesses, advocating for a more equitable resource allocation by platforms to foster a diverse industry ecosystem [5].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing competition among major food delivery platforms like Meituan, Taobao, and JD has led to aggressive promotional activities, including significant discounts and "zero-cost" offers, which have raised concerns about market regulation and sustainability in the food service industry [1][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The food delivery platforms are engaged in a fierce promotional battle, with offers such as "free milk tea" and substantial discount coupons driving consumer interest and sales [1]. - The promotional activities have resulted in record-high daily orders, with figures reaching 80 million, 120 million, and 150 million for various platforms [8]. - Delivery personnel have benefited from this competition, with reports of hourly wages exceeding 100 yuan and potential monthly earnings surpassing 10,000 yuan, with some even reaching 20,000 to 30,000 yuan [8]. Group 2: Regulatory Response - The State Administration for Market Regulation has intervened, requiring platforms like Ele.me, Meituan, and JD to adhere to laws such as the E-commerce Law and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, and to regulate their promotional behaviors [8][9]. - A special task force has been established to monitor promotional activities, control pricing, and ensure the rights of delivery personnel are protected [3]. Group 3: Industry Concerns - While the promotional activities have increased brand visibility, many restaurant operators express frustration, stating their businesses are heavily reliant on these platforms, which control their market fate [8]. - Experts warn that the subsidy-driven competition may lead to long-term issues, including food safety risks and the potential for subpar businesses to thrive at the expense of quality operators [10].