黄酒—龙头引领升级，行业共振机遇可期 20250606 您如何看待黄酒行业当前的市场状况和未来的发展趋势？ 黄酒行业目前正处于龙头企业引领升级的阶段，未来整体共振机遇值得期待。 短期来看，由于资金面和情绪面的推动，板块估值相对偏高。然而，从中长期 来看，我们坚定认为这是由龙头企业引领的产业结构升级，为龙头企业带来中 长期趋势性投资机会。 为什么认为黄酒行业有中长期的趋势性机会？ 我们从四个维度分析了黄酒行业的发展前景：政策变化、历史复盘、行业趋势 格局和成长空间。首先，从政策层面看，2023 年 3 月 31 日，会稽山发布提价 通知，随后古越龙山也发布了提价通知，引发市场关注。4 月 28 日，绍兴非上 市黄酒龙头塔牌也发布了提价通知。这些举措显示出龙头企业形成了一种战略 共识，而这种共识背后的推力是产业政策和上层建筑的变化。 从 2016 年起， 树立高端品牌形象需消除消费者对黄酒的低端认知，借鉴古井贡酒经验， 通过推行高端产品改变品牌形象。渠道管理水平提升将驱动主流价位升 级，实现规模和盈利增长。 龙头企业全国化面临挑战，但可借助高端产品、国潮等方式打破低端认 知。会稽山根据地市场扎实，古越龙山品牌认知 ...

古越龙山 20250602 摘要 古越龙山采取集体涨价和市场反转策略，并凭借中央酒库 IP、历史沉淀 和国酿优势巩固市场地位，吸引投资者关注，但需关注新产能释放延期 风险。 古越龙山通过推广国学文化、国酿文化和美酒加美食文化，并推出青玉 系列等高端产品，旨在提升黄酒品类形象，培养年轻消费群体。 古越龙山积极推动全国化进程，将资源投入非成熟黄酒市场，旨在扩大 黄酒普及率，培育新的消费者群体，提升行业发展潜力。 黄酒以其低度数、健康和适合搭配美食的特点，在全球低度数饮料受欢 迎的趋势下，面临良好的发展机遇，应积极推广以迎合消费需求。 高端化战略通过推出青玉系列等产品，改变消费者对黄酒的认知，树立 高价值、高品质的品牌形象，获得市场认可。 企业黄酒产品战略分为高端化和年轻化，高端化旨在改变黄酒的负面标 签，年轻化则通过线上投放和美食美酒传播吸引年轻消费者。 新智能化酿造园区预计降低生产成本 5%以上，类似于集中管理模式， 有助于减少物流费用和管理开支，提升竞争力，优化资源配置，但新产 能释放调试期可能延期。 Q&A 今年以来黄酒市场的表现如何？古越龙山在其中扮演了什么角色？ 今年以来，黄酒市场表现出较高的关注度，尤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increases by leading yellow wine companies, including Guyue Longshan, have not significantly improved their profitability, highlighting ongoing challenges in the industry. Group 1: Price Increases and Financial Performance - Guyue Longshan announced price increases of 2% to 12% for several products starting April 22, marking its second price hike in less than six months [1] - Despite a revenue increase of 8.55% to 1.936 billion yuan in 2024, net profit fell by 48.17% to 206 million yuan, the largest decline in recent years [1][3] - The company's non-recurring net profit has shown minimal growth over five years, increasing only 10% from 180 million yuan in 2019 to 198 million yuan in 2024 [1][3] Group 2: Profit Margins and Market Position - The gross margins for mid-to-high-end and ordinary wines were 44.32% and 18.58% respectively in 2024, both declining from the previous year [2] - The significant drop in gross margin for ordinary wine is concerning, as this category remains crucial in sales structure [2] - Guyue Longshan's ordinary wine is priced around 10 yuan, significantly lower than the white wine market, limiting the potential for price increases to enhance profitability [2] Group 3: Regional Sales and Market Challenges - The company generated 57.03% of its revenue from the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions, indicating a heavy reliance on this area [4] - The overall yellow wine market is shrinking, with the number of large-scale yellow wine enterprises decreasing from 121 to 81 between 2017 and 2023 [4] - Despite increased marketing efforts, sales performance has not improved proportionately, leading to further profit margin compression [4][6] Group 4: International Expansion and Brand Recognition - Guyue Longshan is attempting to expand into international markets, but its international sales revenue remains stagnant at 42 million yuan [5] - The lack of awareness and cultural acceptance of yellow wine in international markets poses significant challenges for global expansion [5] Group 5: High-End Market Strategy - The company has been pursuing a high-end market strategy, with mid-to-high-end wine revenue reaching 1.398 billion yuan in 2024, a 12.47% increase [7] - However, the high-end yellow wine market faces challenges due to a lack of cultural depth and consumer recognition compared to the white wine sector [7] - Seasonal and regional consumption habits further limit the frequency of high-end yellow wine purchases [7] Group 6: Future Outlook and Strategic Goals - Guyue Longshan has consistently failed to meet its growth targets for four consecutive years, reflecting the challenges of its high-end transformation strategy [8] - The company has lowered its growth targets for 2025 to 6% for sales and 3% for profits, indicating a cautious outlook on industry and company growth prospects [8] - The ongoing struggle to balance price increases, regional expansion, and high-end transformation will be critical for the future of the yellow wine industry [8]