证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 12 29 年 月 日 会稽山（601579.SH） 鉴水酿新，稽山领航 会稽山：从古法酿造到转型升级，引领黄酒价值复兴。1）历史复盘：会稽山作为 中国黄酒行业领头羊，历经 280 余年发展，整体可划分为初创沉淀期、资本整合 期、创新变革期三个阶段。作为黄酒行业标杆企业，坚持"高端化、年轻化、全国 化"的战略导向，持续推进和实施黄酒主业深耕战略。2）管理情况：公司控股股 东为中建信（浙江）创业投资有限公司，中建信聚焦投资与新材料等领域，资金实 力与产业整合能力突出。公司依托民企灵活高效的经营管理机制，有利于战略高 效执行。3）财务情况：2024 年公司收入利润创历史新高，实现营收 16.31 亿元、 同比+15.6%，归母净利润 1.96 亿元、同比+17.74%，业绩增长稳健。 黄酒行业转型稳步推进，品类价值亟待释放。1）商业模式：黄酒作为中国独有传 统酒种，兼具饮用与文化价值，属地性较强，年轻消费群体拓展空间充足。2）行 业规模：2023 年中国黄酒市场销售收入为 210 亿元，同比+2.10%，2016-2023 年规模以上黄酒企业数量 ...

Summary of the Huangjiu Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Huangjiu industry is experiencing significant growth, particularly in the Shaoxing region, with sales from April to November 2025 showing a 50% increase compared to the previous year, reaching 300,000 boxes [10][11] - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 700,000 boxes by March 2026, with internal growth expectations set at 70%-80% [10][11] Key Company Insights - **Sales Performance**: The company reported strong sales momentum in Q4 2025, particularly due to promotional activities in November, which led to an 80% year-on-year sales increase [2][5] - **Product Series Performance**: - The "1,743" series is expected to exceed last year's total sales by 150% by the end of November, with projections indicating potential profit doubling in the next three to five years [5] - The "Lanting" series is anticipated to achieve 80%-100% growth, reaching approximately 200 million yuan and starting to generate profits [5][6] - **Pricing Strategy**: The company has implemented price increases across its product lines, with the "Lanting" series seeing a price rise of 50 yuan during the Mid-Autumn Festival, and overall expenses reduced by 10 percentage points [6][11] Market Dynamics - **Inventory and Pricing**: The Huangjiu market maintains reasonable inventory levels, with a price increase of 10 yuan per box this year, bringing the price range to 200 yuan [11] - **Target Markets**: The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in Zhejiang Province, with sales projections of 1.1 to 1.2 billion yuan by 2025, including specific targets of 700 million yuan in Shaoxing and over 300 million yuan in Hangzhou [17] Strategic Initiatives - **High-End Product Promotion**: The company recognizes the need to enhance the promotion of high-end products, particularly those with gift attributes, to improve market share and brand influence [4][19] - **Consumer Targeting**: The "1,743" brand is aimed at younger consumers and those unfamiliar with traditional Huangjiu, with marketing strategies including promotional events to attract new customer segments [14][16] Challenges and Opportunities - **Market Recovery**: The Hangzhou market has shown signs of recovery after a management change, but high-end product sales still require improvement [18] - **Sales Trends**: The company is observing a shift in consumer preferences towards lower-alcohol Huangjiu, indicating a need to adapt product offerings to meet evolving market demands [21] Future Outlook - The company has set ambitious sales targets of 5 billion yuan over the next three years, with an annual growth rate exceeding 25% [4][31] - Continued focus on high-end product development and market expansion is essential for sustaining growth in the competitive Huangjiu landscape [26]

Core Viewpoint - The yellow wine industry in China is experiencing a structural turning point driven by five key forces: technological breakthroughs, brand value reassessment, channel reconstruction, policy empowerment, and generational change, leading to increased industry concentration and the emergence of leading players like Kuaijishan [1] Brand Perspective - Kuaijishan leverages its 280 years of brewing heritage, national secret-level techniques, and aged raw materials to build a quality foundation and historical assets as one of the "Eight Famous Wines" [1] - The company has established a dual-brand strategy with "Kuaijishan" and "Lanting," focusing on high-end and nationwide expansion, while also holding multiple brand resources for collaborative development [1] - The main brand "Kuaijishan" targets mainstream price upgrades and youth transformation, promoting the "1743" as a flagship product, while the high-end brand "Lanting" integrates cultural IP to establish a premium image [1][2] Product Perspective - The company is driving product structure optimization through category innovation, health upgrades, and youthful design [2] - Health-oriented products have been developed to meet modern low-sugar and low-burden consumption needs, while the "One Day One Smoke" sparkling yellow wine caters to younger consumers [2] - The company has implemented a dual strategy of price increases and premiumization to address cost pressures, resulting in a 31.3% year-on-year growth in mid-to-high-end wine sales revenue in 2024 [2] Channel Perspective - Kuaijishan has built a national network focused on distribution, with a three-tier market strategy to enhance core market management and explore emerging channels [3] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 983 million yuan in the Zhejiang region, significantly outperforming peers [3] - The rapid growth of online channels has led to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 50% for mid-to-high-end product e-commerce revenue [3] Future Outlook - The yellow wine market is expected to benefit from generational shifts and cultural changes reshaping alcohol consumption patterns, with potential to capture part of the social demand traditionally dominated by white spirits [4] - The company’s brand strength is anticipated to elevate the industry from a single-leader model to a collaborative development phase, promoting overall industry prosperity [4] - The yellow wine industry enjoys favorable tax policies, providing additional support for profit margins, with a clear path for profit improvement as the industry grows [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned to benefit from the high-end, national, and youthful transformation of the yellow wine industry, with projected revenues of 1.882 billion yuan and 2.185 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.4% and 16.1% [5] - The expected net profit for the same years is projected at 215 million yuan and 232 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 9.4% and 8.2% [5]

Summary of Huangjiu Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Huangjiu industry benefits from a favorable tax policy, with net profit margins superior to Baijiu under similar gross margins. Leading companies like Kuaijishan have achieved gross margins exceeding 60%, while Jimo Laojiu and Wuzhanmao have net profit margins of 18% and 15% respectively. If product structures stabilize and gross margins approach 70%-80%, net margins could easily reach 20% [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Market Size and Consumption Habits**: The Huangjiu market is relatively small, with consumption habits being regionally strong, primarily concentrated in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai. The lack of clear consumption scenarios, as Huangjiu is often viewed as a staple or cooking ingredient, poses a significant challenge for consumer education [1][4] - **High-End Development Strategies**: Leading companies are pushing for high-end development through product innovation and channel reform. For instance, Kuaijishan has launched the Benniang series, while both Kuaijishan and Guyuelongshan are actively promoting high-end strategies, achieving significant results through consumer engagement and high-end cultivation [1][5] - **Kuaijishan's Strategic Moves**: Since the shareholder change in 2022, Kuaijishan has restructured its organization, enhanced its sales team, and refined its product structure. The company has established a dual-brand strategy with Kuaijishan and Lanting, focusing on nationalization, high-end, and youth-oriented development [1][6] - **Current Policy Environment**: The current policy environment has a limited impact on Huangjiu, particularly high-end products like Lanting, which are not significantly affected by policy restrictions. However, the overall cautious consumption environment may slow the speed of new partnerships, although growth potential remains in the second half of the year [1][8] Challenges Facing the Industry - The Huangjiu industry faces challenges such as a small market size, strong regional consumption habits, and a lack of distinct consumption scenarios compared to Baijiu and beer, which have much larger market scales [4] Company Performance and Future Expectations - Kuaijishan's sales volume has reached last year's total, with the Lanting series benefiting from a high-profile strategy that provides profit margins for group buyers, leading to high channel enthusiasm. The 1,743 series has a clear positioning and good sales rhythm, expected to become a major profit source [3][9] - Guyuelongshan is integrating dispersed production facilities to reduce costs and improve efficiency. The company is also innovating products to attract younger consumers and expanding brand influence through platforms like Douyin [3][12] Future Growth Prospects - The Huangjiu industry shows a trend of upward development, with potential for significant improvement in net profit margins. If net profit margins gradually reach 20% or higher by 2026-2027, the industry could see a doubling of current profit levels [15][16] - New consumption attributes are emerging in the Huangjiu industry, with recent reforms attracting market attention. The upcoming peak season, especially around the Spring Festival, is expected to accelerate growth, supported by channel expansion and improved consumer demand [17]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a stable revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by innovative marketing strategies and product upgrades, particularly in the high-end yellow wine segment [1][2][3] Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 820 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90 million yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company generated revenue of 340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, with a net profit of 134,000 yuan, recovering from a loss of 1.397 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - Revenue from mid-to-high-end yellow wine, ordinary wine, and other wines in H1 2025 was 520 million yuan, 200 million yuan, and 70 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.2%, 2.5%, and 60.5% [1] Market and Product Strategy - The company focused on online business during the off-season, promoting its sparkling yellow wine products through collaborations with popular influencers and celebrities, targeting the younger demographic [1] - Revenue by region in H1 2025 showed significant growth in Zhejiang (520 million yuan, +19.3%) while other regions like Jiangsu and Shanghai experienced declines [1] Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross margin in H1 2025 increased by 5.4 percentage points to 55.4%, attributed to the rising proportion of mid-to-high-end yellow wine [2] - The overall expense ratio rose by 3.7 percentage points to 34.5%, with sales expense ratio increasing due to heightened brand investment [2] - Cash flow remained stable, with cash receipts in Q2 2025 amounting to 900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.1% [2] Industry Outlook - The yellow wine industry is witnessing a trend towards brand premiumization and product structure upgrades, presenting historical opportunities for brand and value recovery [3] - The company is leveraging cultural elements of yellow wine and pursuing breakthroughs in both youth-oriented and high-end markets, aiming for sustained growth [3] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 240 million yuan, 300 million yuan, and 380 million yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding dynamic P/E ratios of 42x, 33x, and 27x [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in revenue and profit, with a 11.0% increase in revenue to 817 million yuan and a 3.4% increase in net profit to 94 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [1][5] - The company's high-end and mid-range product strategies have led to a notable increase in gross margin, which rose by 5.4 percentage points to 55.4% in the first half of 2025 [1][3] - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation under new management, focusing on high investment in marketing and product upgrades to enhance market share and brand value [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 336 million yuan, reflecting a 12.4% year-on-year growth, and net profit of 130,000 yuan, marking a return to profitability [1] - The revenue from high-end and mid-range products has continued to grow, with the high-end "Lanting" series and the mid-range "1743" series maintaining strong growth momentum [1] Cost Structure - Sales expenses increased significantly by 53.7% to 220 million yuan, primarily due to a 87% rise in advertising expenses [2] - Management expenses saw a reduction of 3.4% year-on-year, attributed to savings in depreciation, pollution inspection fees, and employee compensation [2] Market Expansion - The company has made progress in expanding its market presence outside of Zhejiang, with a net increase of 250 distributors, including 148 in other regions [2] - Revenue contributions from various regions showed mixed results, with Zhejiang's revenue increasing by 19% while other regions experienced declines [2] Future Projections - The company is expected to see earnings per share (EPS) of 0.49, 0.62, and 0.76 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 43.5, 34.2, and 27.9 [3][4]

Summary of the Conference Call for Kuaijishan Company Overview - Kuaijishan is undergoing modernization and diversification efforts, including acquisitions of Wuzhanmao and Tang Song, but has not yet established a core business from these attempts [2][4] - The company aims to become a benchmark for Chinese yellow wine through high-end, youthful, and fashionable strategies under the leadership of Zhongjianxin Holdings [5] Financial Performance - The proportion of mid-to-high-end revenue increased from 60% in 2022 to 67.3% in 2024, nearing the peak of 2019 [2][7] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for mid-to-high-end yellow wine revenue is projected at 21.4% from 2022 to 2024, significantly outpacing the 3.7% growth for regular yellow wine [2][7] - Revenue is heavily concentrated in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions, accounting for 88.8% of total revenue, with Zhejiang alone contributing 62.1% [2][8] Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a dual-brand strategy with Kuaijishan and Lanting, focusing on enhancing brand recognition through tasting events and factory tours [4][6] - Collaborations with KOLs on platforms like Douyin have attracted younger consumers, with notable sales increases in the Shaoxing region [4][17] Market Dynamics - The yellow wine industry is experiencing a recovery, with total revenue for large-scale yellow wine enterprises reaching 8.547 billion yuan in 2023, although still below 2022 levels [12] - The industry is characterized by a high market concentration, with the top three companies (Guyuelongshan, Kuaijishan, and Jinfeng Wine Industry) holding a combined market share of approximately 43% [13] Consumer Trends - The primary consumption scenario for yellow wine remains home drinking, accounting for about 55%, but there is potential for expansion into business banquets as economic conditions improve [11] - The company is exploring innovative product categories, such as sparkling yellow wine, to appeal to younger demographics [17][18] Governance and Management - Kuaijishan has a clear governance structure following the change of controlling shareholder and actual controller in 2022, enhancing execution efficiency [9] - A share repurchase plan was initiated to boost market confidence, with 9 million shares repurchased by February 2024 [9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from price elasticity due to coordinated price increases by distributors, which could enhance profitability [19] - Despite high current valuations, there is significant potential for profit expansion as reforms deepen and new products are launched [20]

Summary of the Yellow Wine Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The yellow wine industry is experiencing a positive shift in its development environment due to increased government support, particularly from local governments since 2023, with significant investments in the industry [1][4][5] - Historical challenges included low tax rates and a lack of leading enterprises, but current leading companies are playing a larger role in driving industry upgrades [1][3][5] Key Insights and Arguments - The yellow wine industry missed past consumption upgrade opportunities due to governance and management issues, but leading companies like Kuaijishan and Guyuelongshan are improving governance and management quality [1][7][8] - The industry is showing a K-shaped development trend, where leading enterprises are thriving while smaller companies are struggling, leading to market share concentration towards top brands [1][9] - The future of the yellow wine industry is expected to go through three phases: premiumization, nationalization, and youth-oriented strategies, with premiumization prioritized in the short term to enhance product value and brand competitiveness [1][10][12] Government Support and Policy Changes - Significant government initiatives include the establishment of a special task force in Shaoxing to support the yellow wine industry, with a goal of reaching 10 billion yuan in sales by 2027 and a national market share exceeding 50% [4][5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the importance of cultural brand inheritance in the yellow wine industry, indicating ongoing support for its development [4] Historical Context and Challenges - The yellow wine industry has historically been hindered by low tax rates and insufficient government attention, with the current consumption tax rate remaining unchanged since 1994 [5][6] - The lack of strong leading enterprises has been a significant constraint on the industry's growth, contrasting with the white wine sector where leading brands have successfully driven market upgrades [6][7] Future Development Trends - The yellow wine industry is expected to see a revival in volume and price over the next 3-5 years, driven by leading enterprises and their strategic initiatives [10][12] - The focus on premium products is anticipated to elevate the average price per ton significantly, contributing to overall market price increases [9][12] - The industry is also expected to attract younger consumers by aligning with new consumption trends and cultural elements, as seen with product launches targeting this demographic [15] Conclusion - The yellow wine industry is on the cusp of a transformative phase, supported by government initiatives and the strategic actions of leading enterprises, which are likely to reshape its market dynamics and consumer perceptions in the coming years [2][10][15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the liquor industry is in a bottoming phase, with signs of stabilization in fundamentals. The high-end liquor sector is expected to see a recovery in demand and valuation in the second half of the year. The report emphasizes focusing on leading regional high-end liquor companies while waiting for demand recovery and valuation repair to resonate [3][11] - The report highlights significant opportunities in the yellow wine sector, which is experiencing a revival driven by changing consumer preferences towards healthier and lighter drinking options. The report notes that yellow wine is well-positioned to cater to the "self-consumption" trend and is gradually breaking the stereotype of being a traditional drink for older consumers [4][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - From May 26 to May 30, the food and beverage index declined by 1.1%, ranking 24th among 28 sub-industries, performing in line with the CSI 300 index. The soft drink (+9.3%), other alcoholic beverages (+7.1%), and beer (+3.2%) sectors showed relatively strong performance [3][11][13] Market Performance - The liquor industry continues to show weak recovery, with terminal demand remaining sluggish. The report attributes this to slow consumer recovery and a reduction in business banquet scenarios. The recent re-emphasis on the prohibition of alcohol consumption in government settings has raised market concerns, but the actual impact is considered limited due to already low levels of government consumption [3][11][12] Upstream Data - As of May 20, the auction price for whole milk powder was $4,332 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%. Meanwhile, the domestic fresh milk price was 3.1 yuan per kilogram, showing a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%. The report suggests that domestic milk prices are still on a downward trend in the short term [21][24] Liquor Industry News - The report mentions that the Guizhou Moutai (Walking Series) is set to launch soon, and during the recent promotional event, the overall sales of liquor exceeded 300 million yuan within 12 hours, marking a significant increase compared to the previous year [44][45]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaijishan has seen a significant stock price increase of over 146% since April 2024, driven by the popularity of its sparkling yellow wine, which has attracted younger consumers and positioned the brand as a new consumption trend [1][2][3] Company Performance - Kuaijishan's sparkling yellow wine was launched in July 2023 and achieved over 4 million yuan in sales through Douyin in 2023, with a record of over 10 million yuan in a 72-hour live stream during the 2024 618 shopping festival [2] - The company announced price increases for several key products, with price hikes ranging from 1% to 9%, effective from April 1, 2025, marking the first price adjustment since 2016 [2][3] - Kuaijishan's mid-to-high-end yellow wine revenue grew by 31.29% in 2024, with an overall gross margin increase of 5.15 percentage points [5][6] Market Trends - The yellow wine industry has faced challenges, including a 16% decline in sales revenue for large-scale producers in 2023, with overall industry sales continuing to drop since 2017 [5][6] - Kuaijishan and Guyuelongshan are showing signs of recovery, with steady revenue growth and improved gross margins since 2023 [6] - The company has expanded its distribution network significantly, adding 343 new distributors in 2024, which is directly linked to its revenue growth [6] Consumer Demographics - The target demographic for Kuaijishan's sparkling yellow wine is primarily young consumers aged 18-35, who accounted for over 80% of sales during promotional events [2][3]