公司研究丨深度报告丨古越龙山（600059.SH） [Table_Title] 古越龙山深度报告：古往今来，越酒复兴 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 黄酒行业 2023 年 CR3 超 40%，相较于 2016 年的约 18%获得明显提升，行业格局初步稳定。 龙头达成战略协同，传统大单品 2025 年进入新一轮提价周期。同时龙头公司也在积极挖掘黄 酒新的消费场景、人群以及区域，进一步拓宽黄酒未来的潜在空间。考虑到古越龙山未来随着 体制进一步激活、公司品牌潜能有望逐步释放，同时随着品类影响力及公司品牌力的提升，全 国市场亦有望贡献增长。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 朱梦兰 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490522050003 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 22 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 古越龙山（600059.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 古越龙山深度报告：古往今来，越酒 ...

Core Insights - The competition between leading companies in the yellow wine industry has intensified recently, particularly between Kuaijishan and Guyue Longshan [1] - Kuaijishan's stock price reached a historical high, with its market capitalization surpassing 10 billion yuan, overtaking Guyue Longshan [2] Company Performance - Guyue Longshan's sales expenses for 2024 were 252.23 million yuan, a slight increase of 2.23% from 2023, with advertising and promotional expenses decreasing to 57.22 million yuan, down approximately 1.7 million yuan from the previous year [4][5] - In contrast, Kuaijishan's sales expenses for 2024 amounted to 332 million yuan, a significant increase of 60.25% from 2023, with advertising and promotional expenses doubling to 162 million yuan [6][8] Market Strategy - Guyue Longshan's general manager acknowledged the need for improved market strategy flexibility compared to Kuaijishan's more agile private mechanism [3] - Guyue Longshan plans to focus on product optimization, high-end technology, and a differentiated product strategy to regain market share, particularly in the Zhejiang region where it has been losing ground to Kuaijishan [11][17] Sales Performance - Kuaijishan's sales revenue in the Zhejiang region for 2024 reached 983 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 130 million yuan, accounting for 62.1% of its total sales [12] - Guyue Longshan's sales revenue in the same region was only 534 million yuan, with a modest growth of 34 million yuan, representing just 28.02% of its total sales [14] Online Sales Growth - Kuaijishan's online sales of mid-to-high-end yellow wine reached 173 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 89.74%, with a gross margin of 58.1% [9] - Guyue Longshan's online sales for mid-to-high-end and regular wines totaled 267 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 35.16%, which is lower than Kuaijishan's growth rate [9] Young Consumer Market - Guyue Longshan is facing challenges in capturing the young consumer market, with its product offerings perceived as lacking impact compared to Kuaijishan's successful marketing strategies [17] - The company is attempting to enhance its appeal to younger consumers through innovative products and targeted marketing on social media platforms [17]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The yellow wine sector has gained significant market attention, with companies like Kuaijishan and Guyuelongshan reaching near all-time high stock prices, indicating a potential restructuring of the industry's volume and price logic [1] - The overall growth of the yellow wine sector has outpaced that of the white wine sector this year, with Kuaijishan's market capitalization surpassing several white wine companies [1] - The consumption scenarios are steadily upgrading, starting from the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions and gradually expanding to the national market [1] Group 2: Company Strategies and Developments - Guyuelongshan's high-end product strategy has shown good progress, with the Guoniang series selling over 40,000 boxes in 2024, and the company plans to further optimize its product structure [2] - The company is implementing a controlled quantity and price strategy to maintain product quality while focusing on mid-tier products that have high market acceptance [2] - Guyuelongshan aims to enhance its online sales through a young consumer-focused product lineup, including innovative combinations like coffee yellow wine and sparkling yellow wine [2][9] Group 3: Cost Management and Efficiency - Guyuelongshan is accelerating its relocation and capacity evolution, with a new industrial park set to be fully operational by August, which is expected to reduce production costs by 5% and logistics costs by 5% [4] - The company has implemented a personalized cost reduction plan, targeting a decrease in raw material costs by over 2.5% by winter 2025 [4] Group 4: Market Position and Future Goals - Guyuelongshan holds a 90% market share in the Shanghai restaurant channel, but its market share decreases further south, indicating a need for strategic growth in these areas [8] - The company has set a revenue growth target of 6% and a net profit growth target of 3% for the year, adjusting its goals in response to the overall downward trend in the liquor industry [10] - The company plans to gradually increase prices based on operational costs and market trends, with a focus on maintaining a healthy inventory level among distributors [11][14] Group 5: Young Consumer Engagement - Guyuelongshan is actively targeting younger consumers with innovative product combinations and marketing strategies, aiming to sell 180,000 boxes of new products by October [9] - The company is focusing on low-alcohol and low-sugar products to cater to the preferences of younger consumers while maintaining traditional offerings [9]

Core Viewpoint - Gu Yue Long Shan, known as the "King of Huangjiu," has faced challenges in maintaining its high-end product pricing and has not met its performance targets for four consecutive years, while its competitor Kuaiji Mountain has shown significant growth in revenue and profit [1][4][10]. Group 1: Performance Overview - In 2024, Gu Yue Long Shan reported revenue of 1.936 billion yuan, an increase of 8.55%, but net profit plummeted by 48.17% to 206 million yuan, falling short of its target of over 12% growth in both sales and profit [4][5]. - Gu Yue Long Shan's revenue growth has been consistently lower than Kuaiji Mountain, which has been narrowing the gap in revenue and profit over the years [4][5][10]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Gu Yue Long Shan's current predicament reflects common issues in the Huangjiu industry, such as limited consumption scenarios and a lag in appealing to younger consumers [1][10]. - The company aims to optimize its product structure and enhance its high-end offerings, but its high-end products still struggle to achieve a gross margin exceeding 50% [11][14]. Group 3: Gross Margin Analysis - In 2024, Gu Yue Long Shan's gross margin for its products was 37.46%, a slight decline of 0.69%, while Kuaiji Mountain achieved a gross margin of 52.75%, an increase of 6.80% [10][11]. - The gross margin for Gu Yue Long Shan's mid-to-high-end products was 44.32%, compared to Kuaiji Mountain's 61.57%, indicating a significant disparity in profitability [11][12]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Kuaiji Mountain has set ambitious sales growth targets of 15%-20% for 2025, while Gu Yue Long Shan has lowered its targets to over 6% sales growth and over 3% profit growth [5][12]. - The pricing strategies of both companies have been adjusted to reflect the value of Huangjiu products, with both raising prices in early April [12][13].