Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 34%-35% year-on-year for 2025, with net profit growth of 42%-44%, driven by the expansion of multiple product categories and the growth of the Han Shu brand [3][10]. - The company forecasts a significant increase in revenue for the second half of 2025, estimating 50-51 billion RMB, which represents a year-on-year growth of 52%-55% [10]. - The net profit margin for 2025 is projected to be 12.5%-12.6%, reflecting a slight increase compared to the previous year, supported by improved operational efficiency and brand performance [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 9,160 million RMB in 2025, up from 6,793 million RMB in 2024, marking a growth of 34.9% [5]. - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be between 1,100 million RMB and 1,372 million RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.8%-24.7% [5]. - The company's gross profit is forecasted to be 6,969 million RMB in 2025, with a gross margin of approximately 76.08% [11]. Brand Performance - The Han Shu brand is anticipated to achieve over 30% growth in 2025, with significant contributions from the Douyin platform and successful product category expansions [10]. - The Yi Ye brand is expected to see its revenue more than double in 2025, driven by strong sales of key products [10]. - The company is actively expanding its brand portfolio, including the introduction of mid-to-high-end hair care brands and collaborations with research institutions for skincare products [10].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Shangmei Cosmetics Co., Ltd. (02145.HK) has released a positive profit forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating strong revenue and net profit growth driven by its main brand Han Shu and the second growth curve brand New Page [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue to be between RMB 4.09 billion and RMB 4.11 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1] - The net profit is projected to reach between RMB 540 million and RMB 560 million, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] Group 2: Brand Strategy - The company is advancing a "single focus, multi-brand, globalization" strategy, creating a multi-brand matrix that includes the main brand Han Shu and the second curve brand New Page, achieving comprehensive layout across multiple categories and price ranges [2][10] - Han Shu has achieved a breakthrough in all-channel growth, with GMV on Douyin exceeding RMB 3.63 billion in the first half of 2025, maintaining its position as the top-selling beauty brand on the platform [4] Group 3: Product Innovation - The Han Shu brand has successfully launched innovative products, such as the Hong Man Yao series, which sold over 14 million sets, and the Bai Man Yao series targeting the whitening market, reinforcing the brand's market recognition for "functional skincare" [4] - New Page has shown strong growth since its launch in 2022, with a strategic upgrade focusing on "effective skincare" for all age groups, achieving a sales increase of 106% during the 618 shopping festival [6] Group 4: Competitive Advantage - The Anminyou brand targets the sensitive skin segment with its core ingredient "Artemisia Oil AN+", providing a gentle solution for sensitive skin, enhancing the company's professional skincare portfolio [8] - The company has established a complete innovation matrix in the hair care sector, launching differentiated brands like Jifang and Han Shu Hair Care, focusing on functional hair care and scalp anti-aging [8] Group 5: Research and Development - The company emphasizes R&D as a strategic priority, having established a 3.0 innovation R&D system and an "1+N open innovation platform" to integrate global scientific resources [11] - In 2024, Han Shu achieved a significant technological breakthrough with the approval of its self-developed cyclic peptide-9 anti-aging ingredient by the National Medical Products Administration [13] Group 6: Manufacturing and Future Goals - The company has built an international and intelligent production system, with a smart factory that operates fully automated processes from raw material scheduling to finished product delivery [14] - The company aims to reach a strategic target of RMB 30 billion by 2030, leveraging clear strategic planning and continuous R&D investment to transition from following international brands to leading industry development [16]