供应端方面，得益于2025年新增24.3万吨/年产能，前三季度中国PBR产量同比增长超25%至102.3万吨。 行业重点转向高性能、高附加值产品，特别是稀土PBR(钕系)和低顺式PBR(锂系)橡胶。生产企业灵活 切换生产工艺，可在镍系/稀土系PBR以及低顺式PBR/溶聚丁苯橡胶(S-SBR)之间进行产线转换。 但据标普预测，2026年PBR产能扩张速度将放缓，预计新增产能4.1万吨/年，远低于2025年的24.3万吨 和2024年的9.4万吨。"新能源汽车对高性能轮胎的需求，将持续支撑高端PBR材料的市场需求，"王芳 芳补充道。 中国贸易商透露，受东南亚主要产胶国供应不稳定影响，亚洲天然橡胶价格持续高于PBR。普氏数据显 示，近期，东北亚PBR均价1671美元/吨，而东南亚TSR 20均价为1785美元/吨。亚洲橡胶贸易商表示， 持续性洪涝和恶劣天气已对东南亚天然橡胶生产造成冲击。 中国贸易商指出，中国轮胎企业加速向泰国等东南亚国家转移，直接推动了中国PBR出口增长。据悉， 中国对东南亚出口的PBR价格显著低于当地货源价格。目前美国对中国轮胎征收20.73%~116.73%反倾 销税，而对泰国轮胎仅征收4.5 ...

Group 1 - The global polybutadiene rubber (PBR) trade structure is undergoing a significant shift as downstream tire manufacturers move production to Southeast Asia, with China transitioning from a net importer to a net exporter of PBR [1] - China's PBR exports from January to August 2025 reached 215,369 tons, surpassing imports of 176,079 tons, marking a notable change from previous years when China was a net importer [1] - The demand for PBR in China is expected to rise to 1.14 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, aligning with a 4% increase in passenger car tire production, which reached 460 million units [1] Group 2 - The average price of PBR in Northeast Asia fell to $1,518 per ton in the third quarter of 2025, making it cheaper than natural rubber, which was priced at $1,698 per ton during the same period [2] - China's PBR production increased by over 25% year-on-year to 1.023 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, aided by the addition of 243,000 tons of new capacity [2] - The industry is shifting focus towards high-performance and high-value-added products, particularly rare earth PBR and low-cis PBR, with manufacturers able to switch production lines flexibly [2] Group 3 - Natural rubber prices in Asia remain consistently higher than PBR due to supply instability in major rubber-producing countries in Southeast Asia, with recent prices showing PBR at $1,671 per ton compared to $1,785 per ton for TSR 20 [3] - The acceleration of Chinese tire manufacturers relocating to Southeast Asia has directly contributed to the growth of PBR exports from China, with export prices significantly lower than local sources [3] - In 2024, nearly 50% of the 168 million tires imported by the U.S. came from Southeast Asia, highlighting the region's growing importance as a source for tire exports [3]