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国证国际港股晨报-20250901
Guosen International· 2025-09-01 07:06
Core Insights - The report highlights the market's focus on upcoming U.S. employment data, with expectations of continued monetary easing in the next three to six months, impacting various sectors including gold and automotive [3][4]. Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market saw a collective rebound last Friday, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.32%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 0.35%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 0.54%. The total market turnover slightly decreased to HKD 335.6 billion, with short-selling amounts dropping to HKD 49.8 billion, representing 16.02% of total turnover [2]. - Southbound capital flow turned positive, with a net inflow of HKD 12.046 billion into Hong Kong stocks. The most actively traded stocks included Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, and Guotai Junan International, while Xiaomi, New China Life, and SMIC saw the most net selling [2]. Sector Performance - Cryptocurrency-related stocks performed strongly, with Guotai Junan International's stock price increasing by 15.69% following the announcement of cryptocurrency trading services. The pharmaceutical sector also rebounded after previous declines, with notable gains in stocks like Weiya Bio and Rongchang Bio [2]. - The automotive supply chain showed positive trends, with significant increases in sales of new energy vehicles, projected to reach around 1.1 million units in August, reflecting a penetration rate of approximately 57% [3]. Company Analysis: Meituan (3690.HK) - Meituan's second-quarter core local business operating profit fell by 76% year-on-year, with total revenue of RMB 91.8 billion, a 12% increase but showing a slowdown. The adjusted operating profit was RMB 1.8 billion, with a profit margin dropping to 5.7% due to increased competition and subsidies in the instant retail sector [6][7]. - The report indicates that Meituan prioritizes market share over short-term profits, with expectations of significant losses in the third quarter due to increased industry subsidies. However, it is anticipated that competition will eventually return to rational levels, focusing on service quality and operational efficiency [6][9]. - The financial forecast has been adjusted, with a 7% reduction in the 2025 revenue estimate for the core local business, while the target price has been set at HKD 134, reflecting a shift in valuation to 2026 due to increased uncertainty in profits [9].