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国产九价HPV疫苗,重大突破!钟睒睒或成最大赢家
21世纪经济报道· 2025-06-04 09:59
Core Viewpoint - The first domestically produced nine-valent HPV vaccine in China has been approved for market release, which is expected to enhance the company's product line and core competitiveness, providing a solid foundation for sustainable development [2][8]. Group 1: Product Approval and Market Position - Wantai Biological's nine-valent HPV vaccine, named "Xinkening 9," has received approval for market release after approximately 10 years of development, including clinical trials [4][5]. - The vaccine is designed to prevent cervical cancer, which is the most common malignant tumor among women, and is the only cancer that can be effectively prevented through vaccination [2][4]. - Wantai is the second company globally and the first in China to apply for clinical trials of a nine-valent cervical cancer vaccine, with the only other competitor being Merck's Gardasil 9 [5][15]. Group 2: Pricing and Market Potential - The expected peak sales for Wantai's nine-valent HPV vaccine could reach 22.8 billion yuan, with projections for revenue growth from 3.5 billion yuan in 2025 to 60.1 billion yuan by 2027 [7][10]. - The pricing for the imported nine-valent HPV vaccine is approximately 4,380 yuan for three doses, with a single dose costing around 1,331 yuan [6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Currently, Merck holds over 80% market share in the HPV vaccine sector in China, dominating both the four-valent and nine-valent vaccine markets [15]. - The nine-valent vaccine is expected to capture a larger market share due to its ability to prevent approximately 90% of cervical cancer cases, compared to the 70% prevention rate of two-valent and four-valent vaccines [16]. Group 4: Financial Impact and Future Outlook - Wantai Biological's net profit has significantly declined from 47.36 billion yuan in 2022 to an estimated 1.06 billion yuan in 2024, indicating financial pressure prior to the vaccine's approval [9]. - Analysts predict that the nine-valent HPV vaccine will become a core driver of the company's performance, potentially leading to a market valuation of 865 billion yuan based on projected sales [10][11].