2025.08. 25 本文字数：2854，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 曹璐 "牛市是真的来了吗？"这是当前每个投资者心中最火热，也最忐忑的问题。 随着上证指数连破3700、3800两道大关，续创十年新高，并向3900点关口冲击，两市成交额更是 在8月25日爆出3.18万亿元的"天量"，一场资金的狂欢似乎正在上演。 其中，资金入场核心通道ETF同步开启"高速吸金"模式。全市场ETF规模逼近5万亿元，单年增量 1.23万亿元创同期纪录，百亿元级ETF更是扩容至101只，其中行业主题类产品数量翻倍至20只。 然而，在市场一片沸腾之下，投资者的核心疑问无法回避：这场狂欢，究竟是可持续的牛市号角，还 是短期情绪的"虚火"？更关键的是，如果现在还想入场，科技成长、医药创新、传统制造……哪条赛 道才是好机会？ "在经济基本面依然偏弱的情况下，本轮市场的演绎确实已经明显脱离了基本面，水牛是目前宏观环 境下的必然结果。"金鹰基金权益投资部副总经理杨晓斌告诉第一财经，虽然市场依然存在不确定 性，股市短期涨幅过大也不排除可能会调整，但对市场的看法依然较为积极，也希望在目前时间点能 更抓大放小，对当前所处的大时代趋势有 ...

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector has experienced a significant structural recovery trend after a prolonged valuation adjustment, with public fund holdings still below historical averages, indicating potential for growth in 2025 supported by policies promoting commercial insurance [1] - Continued optimism for pharmaceutical innovation is noted, with expectations for ongoing business development (BD) of innovative drugs in the second half of the year, driven by domestic category C directories and commercial insurance policies [1] - A recovery in pharmaceutical investment and financing is anticipated, as a thriving secondary market may lead to a rebound in primary market financing, benefiting CXO and upstream sectors [1] Group 2: AI and Computing Hardware - The AI sector is driving significant growth in the telecommunications industry, with a positive outlook for high growth in hardware development, as the computing power sector remains in a rapid development cycle [2] - Continuous investment in large models by various companies is expected, with demand for computing power becoming increasingly robust due to competition for traffic entry points and expansive application market potential [2] Group 3: Electricity Demand and Equipment Manufacturing - AI is projected to strongly drive global electricity demand growth, with expectations that electricity consumption in global data centers will more than double by 2030 [3] - Recent increases in capital expenditure forecasts by major overseas companies indicate sustained high investment in the AI sector, while supply constraints in power distribution equipment present opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [3] - In the first half of 2025, exports of power transformers from China are expected to show a year-on-year growth rate of over 40%, continuing a trend of high growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector has undergone a significant structural recovery trend after a prolonged period of valuation adjustment, with public fund holdings still below historical averages, and the policy environment in 2025 is expected to improve payment conditions, benefiting innovative drugs and medical devices [1] Group 1: Pharmaceutical Innovation - Continued optimism for pharmaceutical innovation: The second half of the year is expected to see ongoing business development (BD) for innovative drugs, with domestic Class B catalog and commercial insurance policies likely to drive further valuation increases [1] Group 2: Investment and Financing in Pharmaceuticals - Pharmaceutical investment and financing are expected to recover: A prosperous secondary market is anticipated to lead to a rebound in primary market financing, with positive trends in CXO and upstream sectors [1] Group 3: Medical Devices - Medical devices are likely to reach a bottom and recover: Tendering data has begun to show signs of improvement, and pent-up demand from replacement needs is gradually being released [1]

Core Viewpoint - Changchun High-tech has experienced a significant decline in stock price and market value, reflecting the challenges faced by the Chinese pharmaceutical industry as it transitions from reliance on "miracle drugs" to comprehensive innovation [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Changchun High-tech reported its first revenue decline in nearly 20 years, with revenue of 13.466 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.55%, and net profit of 2.708 billion yuan, down 43.01% [2] - The company's performance continued to deteriorate in Q1 2025, with net profit of 469 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 47.36% [3] - From 2020 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from 8.577 billion yuan to 14.566 billion yuan, and net profit increased from 3.308 billion yuan to 4.776 billion yuan, but 2024 marked a turning point with revenue dropping to 13.466 billion yuan and net profit plummeting to 2.583 billion yuan, nearly a "halving" [4] Factors Contributing to Decline - The decline in performance is attributed to three main factors: centralized procurement policies, a decrease in birth rates, and price wars with competitors [5] - The inclusion of growth hormone in centralized procurement significantly impacted the company's core subsidiary, Jinsai Pharmaceutical, which contributed over 75% of revenue. The price of its main product dropped from approximately 1,000 yuan to 300 yuan, a reduction of 70%, leading to a 40.67% profit drop for Jinsai in 2024 [6] - The declining birth rate has reduced the potential user base for growth hormones, with newborn numbers dropping from 17.23 million in 2017 to 9.02 million in 2023 [6] Competitive Landscape - The long-acting growth hormone market, previously dominated by Jinsai, has seen increased competition with new entrants like Teva and Novo Nordisk, leading to a price war that further squeezed profit margins [7] - To capture market share, Changchun High-tech increased its sales team by 58% in 2024, raising sales expenses by 11.8% to 4.439 billion yuan [7] Employee Compensation and Workload - Despite the expansion of the sales team, average employee compensation decreased by approximately 15,000 yuan in 2024, reflecting increased workload and pressure on sales personnel [8][9] Vaccine Business Challenges - Changchun High-tech's subsidiary, Baike Biotechnology, faced significant challenges, with 2024 revenue dropping to 1.229 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 32.64%, and net profit halving to 232 million yuan [10] - The decline in demand for its shingles vaccine, which saw a 69.8% drop in sales volume, significantly impacted overall revenue [10] Innovation and Future Outlook - The company is attempting to explore new growth channels through its innovation pipeline, but it lags behind competitors in the number of clinical projects, with only 24 key products in clinical stages compared to over 300 by peers [11] - Key projects have faced delays, with the completion date for a significant product pushed back from June 2025 to June 2026, indicating challenges in maintaining a competitive edge [11]

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.04%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.92, indicating a divergence in market trends [3] - Despite the overall market fluctuation, the trading volume increased to 1.14 trillion yuan, suggesting active capital movement and sector rotation [3] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector experienced significant gains, particularly in the CRO (Contract Research Organization) segment, with companies like Aoxiang Pharmaceutical and Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit, and Yaoshi Technology rising over 17% [3] - The semiconductor sector also showed strength, with Fangbang Co. and Woge Optoelectronics reaching their daily limits, indicating a positive trend driven by technological advancements in copper foil and its relevance to AI and new energy sectors [3][4] Investment Insights - The current market dynamics suggest that institutional investors may be positioning themselves for long-term opportunities in the pharmaceutical innovation trend, supported by favorable policy directions [3] - Despite some sectors like glyphosate and insurance experiencing declines, the overall market's volume indicates a restructuring phase, emphasizing the importance of identifying structural opportunities [4] - Long-term investment strategies should focus on the pharmaceutical innovation and semiconductor sectors, as these are seen as robust areas for future growth [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China is transitioning from a "license in" model to a "license out" model in the pharmaceutical industry, becoming a significant source of global pharmaceutical innovation [2] - The Chinese pharmaceutical market is evolving from being a passive recipient of technology to an active exporter of innovation, with a call for improvements in clinical research and payment mechanisms [2] - There are structural shortcomings in key areas such as clinical research and technology transfer, with less than 5% of domestic medical institutions achieving significant technology transfer revenue [2] Group 2 - Establishing a domestic innovative drug market in China is crucial, with suggestions to explore paths like an "innovative drug catalog" to balance healthcare funding pressures and encourage innovation [3] - The development of a robust commercial health insurance system is seen as beneficial for enhancing the market competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs, as social security alone cannot bear the high costs of innovative drugs [3] - A more vibrant, open, and flexible domestic market could provide China with the opportunity to nurture multinational pharmaceutical companies [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Pharmaceutical Industry - **Key Focus**: Policy outlook for the second half of 2025, emphasizing basic healthcare and innovation support [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Policy Direction**: The government aims to enhance medical accessibility and affordability while strengthening industry regulation. The focus is on supporting pharmaceutical innovation to meet clinical needs and achieve economic and social benefits [1][2] - **Support for Innovative Drugs**: The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) and the National Health Commission (NHC) have introduced measures to support innovative drug development across five areas: R&D, insurance catalog, clinical application, diversified payment, and security measures. The commercial insurance innovation catalog is a highlight, allowing companies to apply concurrently and negotiate settlement prices [1][6][11] - **Separate Payment System Progress**: The separate payment system for innovative drugs is gradually advancing, with an increase in the number of domestic drugs included in Guangdong's separate payment scope. This is expected to enhance market access and coverage for innovative drugs [1][7] - **Drug Procurement Optimization**: The 11th batch of national drug procurement has optimized reporting methods and bidding rules, raising the bidding threshold and clarifying that new drugs will not be included in procurement. This aims to improve quality control and ensure reasonable pricing [1][13][14] Additional Important Content - **Real-Time Settlement**: As of May 2025, real-time settlement has been implemented in 300 regions, covering 77% of the country, with a total of 300 billion yuan allocated from the medical insurance fund. However, the impact on the growth rate of the insurance fund remains limited [3][15][16] - **Regulatory Environment**: The regulatory intensity in the healthcare sector will remain high, with ongoing efforts to address misconduct in medical procurement and retail pharmacy sectors [3][17][28][29] - **Medical Equipment Market**: The bidding scale for medical equipment is gradually increasing, with significant growth in areas such as medical imaging and surgical robots. However, the terminal prices are under pressure due to centralized procurement [3][23][24][25] - **IVD (In Vitro Diagnostics) Sector**: The IVD sector is experiencing slower progress in price adjustments due to different pricing mechanisms in hospitals, but there is a significant potential for domestic substitution as imported products still hold a large market share [20][21] Conclusion The pharmaceutical industry is undergoing significant changes driven by government policies aimed at enhancing healthcare accessibility and supporting innovation. The focus on regulatory compliance and quality control is expected to shape the industry's future landscape, with opportunities for growth in innovative drugs and medical equipment sectors.

Core Viewpoint - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) has introduced a new directory for innovative drugs under commercial health insurance, supporting pharmaceutical innovation in China [1] Group 1 - The NHSA has reported that over 100 drugs have been submitted for the innovative drug directory [1] - This initiative is part of the efforts to achieve high-quality completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The NHSA will proceed with the necessary follow-up work according to established procedures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is improving global liquidity, leading to strong performance in high-dividend assets, particularly in the financial and insurance sectors. Additionally, China's technological breakthroughs in AI, high-end manufacturing, and pharmaceutical innovation are expected to create ongoing investment opportunities [1][4]. Fund Performance - The fund reported a profit of 26.49 million yuan in Q2, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.26 yuan. The net asset value growth rate for the fund was 20.66%, and the fund size reached 201 million yuan by the end of Q2. The fund achieved a year-to-date return of 67.72%, ranking among the top in the market [1]. Holdings Overview - The fund's top ten holdings are diversified, including: 1. Pop Mart (09992) - 8.45% of net asset value 2. Laopuhuangjin (06181) - 6.55% 3. JAC Motors (600418) - 6.00% 4. Anglikang (002940) - 5.68% 5. Jingpin Special Equipment (688084) - 4.70% 6. World Gold Group (03939) - 4.26% 7. Shandong Weida (002026) - 3.82% 8. Chuangfeng Power (603129) - 3.75% 9. Youfang Technology (688159) - 3.74% 10. Yixintang (002727) - 3.51% [1][3]. - Compared to the previous quarter, new entries in the top ten holdings include JAC Motors, Anglikang, World Gold Group, Shandong Weida, Chuangfeng Power, Youfang Technology, and Yixintang, while New Idea Network, Wangneng Environment (002034), Alibaba-W, Junxin Co. (301109), Zhongchen Technology (603275), and Ningbo Huaxiang (002048) exited the top ten [2][3]. Industry Insights - The global macroeconomic environment is characterized by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which are driving liquidity improvements and a rally in high-dividend assets, particularly in the financial sector [4]. - In the technology innovation sector, China's AI industry is experiencing significant breakthroughs, enhancing its core competitiveness and leading to explosive growth across the entire industrial chain from robotics to upstream hardware [5]. - In high-end manufacturing, China has made historic leaps to global leadership in precision processing and new energy vehicles, transitioning from a product importer to an exporter [5]. - Consumer trends are shifting towards pet economy and trendy consumer goods, with a preference for high cost-performance, experiential, and emotionally connected brands [5]. - In the pharmaceutical innovation sector, China has successfully transitioned from auxiliary research to becoming a global leader in original innovative drugs through years of technological accumulation and independent research [5]. Future Focus - The fund will concentrate on growth directions that have the potential to change the era, targeting companies with transformative capabilities [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that CXO is the "core engine" of global pharmaceutical innovation, significantly benefiting from the active domestic innovative drug BD transactions, with representative companies experiencing a year-on-year doubling of their orders on hand [1] - The industry is positioned as a "water seller," where the demand for upstream life science consumables is directly linked to industry prosperity, with the end of the destocking cycle and the recovery of production activities driving a rebound in the industry [1] - The FDA's announcement to gradually eliminate animal testing may greatly accelerate the development of "organoids + organ-on-chip" technologies, with companies already making early preparations [1]