Core Viewpoint - Anta's main brand experienced a slight decline in revenue in Q4 2025, primarily due to fluctuating weather, misalignment of the Spring Festival, and weak consumer spending [1][2] Group 1: Anta Brand Performance - In Q4 2025, Anta's main brand revenue showed a low single-digit decline, transitioning from low single-digit growth in Q3 2025, with an estimated online growth and slight offline decline [2][4] - The inventory turnover ratio for Anta's main brand was slightly over 5 months, with stable offline discounts and a 2 percentage point reduction in online discounts year-on-year [2][3] - The company is focusing on differentiated store construction and new retail formats, such as Anta Champion Stores and Super Anta Stores, which are performing better than regular stores [2] Group 2: FILA Brand Performance - FILA's revenue in Q4 2025 showed a mid-single-digit year-on-year growth, accelerating from low single-digit growth in Q3 2025, with an estimated double-digit growth online [3][4] - The discount rates for FILA were approximately 73% offline and 55% online, with slight fluctuations due to seasonal promotions [3] - The "One FILA" strategy aims to drive brand growth through "brand elevation," "product innovation," and "retail upgrades," with effects gradually becoming evident in 2025 [3] Group 3: Other Brands Performance - Other brands collectively achieved a revenue growth of 35%-40% in Q4 2025 and 45%-50% for the entire year, with Kolon showing a growth rate of 55% in Q4 and nearly 70% for the year [3][4] - Descente is expected to grow by 25-30% in Q4 2025 and nearly 40% for the year, becoming the third brand under the group to exceed a retail scale of 10 billion [3] - Maia Active's revenue grew by 25-30% in Q4 2025, while the management team of Wolf Claw is focusing on revitalization strategies in key markets [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2026, Anta's main brand is expected to continue channel innovation to boost brand performance, with anticipated improvements in e-commerce sales [4] - The operating profit margin is expected to slightly decline due to significant market investments in Anta and FILA, while Descente and Kolon are expected to maintain high profit margins [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 78.5 billion, 85.88 billion, and 93.29 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 13.23 billion, 14.08 billion, and 15.56 billion [4]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports reported a decline in brand revenue for Q4 2025, while Fila and other brands showed growth, indicating a mixed performance across its portfolio [1][2]. Anta Brand - In Q4 2025, Anta brand revenue decreased by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, attributed to a weak domestic consumption environment and the delayed timing of the Chinese New Year [1]. - E-commerce sales are expected to show slight growth, while offline sales, particularly in children's apparel, face more significant pressure due to holiday consumption patterns [1]. - The inventory turnover ratio for Anta brand is projected to be slightly above 5, indicating a healthy inventory level [1]. - Looking ahead to 2026, improvements in e-commerce sales and differentiated store development are anticipated to enhance Anta's brand performance [1]. Fila Brand - Fila brand revenue grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year in Q4 2025, with an acceleration compared to Q3 [2]. - Despite external challenges affecting consumer demand, Fila achieved strong growth due to multi-faceted optimizations in branding, channels, and products [2]. - E-commerce is expected to see double-digit growth driven by major promotional events [2]. - The inventory turnover ratio for Fila is also projected to be slightly above 5, indicating a healthy state [2]. - For 2026, Fila aims to continue high-quality operations and optimize product structure to drive steady growth [2]. Other Brands - Other brands within the group experienced a revenue growth rate of 35% to 40% in Q4 2025, showcasing strong performance [2]. - Descente and KOLON are establishing strong brand power in the high-end outdoor segment, with market share expected to increase amid rapid growth in the domestic outdoor sports market [2]. - Maia Active is also anticipated to perform well in Q4 2025 following successful adjustments [2]. Financial Projections - For 2025, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 13.2 billion yuan, with a revenue growth of 10.9% to 78.564 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit for 2026 is projected to grow by 6.4% to 14 billion yuan, considering ongoing uncertainties in the consumption environment and costs associated with the acquisition of Jack Wolfskin [3]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 13.194 billion, 14.035 billion, and 15.937 billion yuan respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [5] Core Views - Anta Sports is expected to have stable operations in 2025, with a focus on long-term multi-brand performance [1] - The company anticipates a revenue growth of over 10% in 2026, despite a slight decline in net profit margin [3] - The report highlights the strong performance of the Fila brand and other brands, with significant growth expected in the outdoor segment [2][3] Summary by Sections Anta Brand Performance - In Q4 2025, Anta brand revenue is expected to decline by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, attributed to a weak domestic consumption environment and the late timing of the Chinese New Year [1] - The inventory turnover ratio for Anta is projected to be slightly above 5, indicating a healthy inventory level [1] Fila Brand Performance - Fila brand revenue is expected to grow in the mid-single digits year-on-year in Q4 2025, with a faster growth rate compared to Q3 [2] - The report anticipates double-digit growth for Fila's e-commerce sales during major promotional events [2] Other Brands Performance - Other brands under Anta are projected to see a revenue growth of 35% to 40% in Q4 2025, with strong brand presence in the high-end outdoor market [2] - The report indicates that Maia Active is also expected to perform well in Q4 2025 [2] Financial Projections - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of approximately 785.64 billion yuan, with a net profit of around 13.2 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% increase from 2024 [3] - The expected net profit for 2026 is forecasted to be 14 billion yuan, representing a 6.4% growth [3] Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 131.94 billion yuan, 140.35 billion yuan, and 159.37 billion yuan respectively [3] - The projected P/E ratio for 2026 is 15 times [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [5] Core Views - Anta Sports is expected to have stable operations in 2025, with a focus on long-term multi-brand performance. The overall performance aligns with expectations, despite a slight decline in Anta brand revenue and strong growth in other brands [1][2] - The company anticipates a revenue growth of over 10% in 2026, with a projected net profit of approximately 140 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.4% increase from 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Anta Brand Performance - In Q4 2025, Anta brand revenue is expected to decline by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, attributed to a weak domestic consumption environment and the late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival [1] - The inventory turnover ratio for Anta brand is projected to be slightly above 5, indicating a healthy inventory level [1] Fila Brand Performance - Fila brand revenue is expected to grow in the mid-single digits year-on-year in Q4 2025, with improved performance compared to Q3 [2] - The brand benefits from various optimization measures, and e-commerce sales are anticipated to achieve double-digit growth during major promotional events [2] Other Brands Performance - Other brands are experiencing rapid growth, with revenue growth rates of 35% to 40% in Q4 2025. Brands like Descente and Kolon are establishing strong brand power in the high-end outdoor segment [2] Financial Projections - For 2025, the company expects revenue to reach approximately 785.64 billion yuan, with a net profit of around 132 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% increase from 2024 [3][4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 4.72 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.7 for 2026 [4][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Anta Sports Group achieved double-digit revenue growth in the first half of the year, with healthy and controllable discount inventory levels [1][4] - In Q2 2025, Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit growth, while FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth, and other brands saw a remarkable 50-55% growth [2][4] - The management maintains its annual guidance for all brands despite the overall market pressure [4][5] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In Q2 2025, Anta's overall revenue growth was double digits, with FILA and other brands performing well. The main brand's low single-digit growth was impacted by channel adjustments [3][5] - The online discount levels were influenced by the extended 618 promotional period, and inventory levels remained healthy [3][5] Brand Performance - Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit revenue growth in Q2 2025, with a sell-through ratio of five months at the end of the quarter. The running shoe series performed exceptionally well [6][9] - FILA's revenue growth was in the mid-single digits, with strong performance in golf and tennis categories [9][14] - Other brands, particularly KOLON, saw revenue growth exceeding 70%, while Descente grew over 40% [10] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for Anta's net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 134.8 billion, 154.6 billion, and 170.0 billion respectively, with comparable profit growth rates of 13.0%, 14.7%, and 10.0% [4][15] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 113-118 HKD, corresponding to a 2025 PE of 22-23X [4][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Anta Sports, with a target price of HK$102.80, representing a potential upside of 9.4% from the current price of HK$94.05 [2][8]. Core Insights - Anta Sports continues to gain market share through product upgrades and channel innovations, with brand sell-through exceeding RMB 40 billion in FY24, achieving high single-digit growth [3][13]. - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to enhance Anta's outdoor brand matrix, further solidifying its position in the high-end outdoor market [5][15]. - The FILA brand is experiencing growth due to a new CEO and an expanded product range, with sales expected to maintain mid-single-digit growth in 2025 and accelerate in subsequent years [4][16]. Summary by Sections Anta Brand Performance - Anta's brand revenue exceeded RMB 40 billion in 2024, driven by successful product upgrades and channel innovations, with a focus on high-end and mass-market positioning [3][13]. - The introduction of new product lines, such as the Anta Junior Series and various running shoe models, has contributed to significant sales growth [3][13]. FILA Brand Developments - FILA's revenue surpassed RMB 30 billion in 2024, with a strong online presence accounting for approximately 40% of sales [4][14]. - The brand's management transition is expected to support sustainable growth, with a focus on product positioning and brand development [4][14]. Other Brands and Acquisitions - Other brands under Anta, including DESCENTE and Kolon, reported significant revenue growth, with DESCENTE establishing a strong position in the high-end golf market [5][15]. - The planned acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for USD 290 million is anticipated to enhance Anta's outdoor product offerings and market presence [7][15]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Anta Sports are projected at RMB 78.97 billion for 2025, with a low double-digit growth rate expected through 2027 [8][16]. - Net profit estimates for the same period are RMB 13.39 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of -14.1% due to one-off impacts in 2024 [8][16].