事件 机构：中信建投证券 研究员：叶乐/黄杨璐 25Q4 安踏主品牌流水下滑低单位数、环比走弱，主要受天气反复、春节错位以及消费疲软影响。公司 电商渠道完成架构整合后仍处于磨合期。25Q4 库销比略大于5 个月，线下折扣稳定、线上折扣有小幅 度改善。FILA 品牌流水25Q4 同比中单位数增长、有所提速，线上线下折扣保持稳定、整体渠道库销比 略超5 个月。 25Q4 所有其他品牌合计流水增长35%-40%。 后续展望：1）流水方面，安踏主品牌继续推进渠道新业态建设提振品牌表现、预计26 年电商销售或有 所改善，FILA 维持现有增长势头，其他品牌保持较好增长；2）业绩方面，2026 年为体育大年，主营 业务中安踏和FILA 品牌市场投入力度依然较大、预计经营利润率或略有下降，迪桑特&Kolon 等品牌利 润率保持现有较高水平，狼爪预计2026 年仍有亏损。 海外需求疲软，影响AMER 海外市场销售：Amer Sports 海外市场销售占比较高，欧美等海外市场如果 出行需求下行，将影响Amer 的销售表现。 公司发布2025 年第四季度营运表现报告：25Q4 安踏品牌、FILA品牌、所有其他品牌零售金额同比分别 ...

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports reported a decline in brand revenue for Q4 2025, while Fila and other brands showed growth, indicating a mixed performance across its portfolio [1][2]. Anta Brand - In Q4 2025, Anta brand revenue decreased by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, attributed to a weak domestic consumption environment and the delayed timing of the Chinese New Year [1]. - E-commerce sales are expected to show slight growth, while offline sales, particularly in children's apparel, face more significant pressure due to holiday consumption patterns [1]. - The inventory turnover ratio for Anta brand is projected to be slightly above 5, indicating a healthy inventory level [1]. - Looking ahead to 2026, improvements in e-commerce sales and differentiated store development are anticipated to enhance Anta's brand performance [1]. Fila Brand - Fila brand revenue grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year in Q4 2025, with an acceleration compared to Q3 [2]. - Despite external challenges affecting consumer demand, Fila achieved strong growth due to multi-faceted optimizations in branding, channels, and products [2]. - E-commerce is expected to see double-digit growth driven by major promotional events [2]. - The inventory turnover ratio for Fila is also projected to be slightly above 5, indicating a healthy state [2]. - For 2026, Fila aims to continue high-quality operations and optimize product structure to drive steady growth [2]. Other Brands - Other brands within the group experienced a revenue growth rate of 35% to 40% in Q4 2025, showcasing strong performance [2]. - Descente and KOLON are establishing strong brand power in the high-end outdoor segment, with market share expected to increase amid rapid growth in the domestic outdoor sports market [2]. - Maia Active is also anticipated to perform well in Q4 2025 following successful adjustments [2]. Financial Projections - For 2025, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 13.2 billion yuan, with a revenue growth of 10.9% to 78.564 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit for 2026 is projected to grow by 6.4% to 14 billion yuan, considering ongoing uncertainties in the consumption environment and costs associated with the acquisition of Jack Wolfskin [3]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 13.194 billion, 14.035 billion, and 15.937 billion yuan respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [5] Core Views - Anta Sports is expected to have stable operations in 2025, with a focus on long-term multi-brand performance [1] - The company anticipates a revenue growth of over 10% in 2026, despite a slight decline in net profit margin [3] - The report highlights the strong performance of the Fila brand and other brands, with significant growth expected in the outdoor segment [2][3] Summary by Sections Anta Brand Performance - In Q4 2025, Anta brand revenue is expected to decline by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, attributed to a weak domestic consumption environment and the late timing of the Chinese New Year [1] - The inventory turnover ratio for Anta is projected to be slightly above 5, indicating a healthy inventory level [1] Fila Brand Performance - Fila brand revenue is expected to grow in the mid-single digits year-on-year in Q4 2025, with a faster growth rate compared to Q3 [2] - The report anticipates double-digit growth for Fila's e-commerce sales during major promotional events [2] Other Brands Performance - Other brands under Anta are projected to see a revenue growth of 35% to 40% in Q4 2025, with strong brand presence in the high-end outdoor market [2] - The report indicates that Maia Active is also expected to perform well in Q4 2025 [2] Financial Projections - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of approximately 785.64 billion yuan, with a net profit of around 13.2 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% increase from 2024 [3] - The expected net profit for 2026 is forecasted to be 14 billion yuan, representing a 6.4% growth [3] Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 131.94 billion yuan, 140.35 billion yuan, and 159.37 billion yuan respectively [3] - The projected P/E ratio for 2026 is 15 times [3]

2025 年公司经营稳健，关注长期多品牌表现 事件：安踏体育发布 2025Q4 经营情况公告，安踏品牌流水同比下降低单位数（（ 年增长低单位数），Fila 品牌流水同比增长中单位数（ 年增长中单位数），其他 品牌流水同比增长 35%~40%（ 年增长 45%~50%），整体表现符合预期。 安踏品牌：短期消费环境波动叠加春节滞后等因素，Q4 安踏流水波动，库存质量 预计仍然健康。2025Q4 安踏品牌流水同比下降低单位数，我们判断 Q4 安踏流水 波动一方面原因系 Q4 国内消费环境较弱，另一方面原因系 2026 年春节较晚导致 了年货消费滞后。分渠道来看，我们判断电商销售或略有增长，延续 2025 年前三 季度的表现；线下渠道中我们判断童装销售压力对比成人或较大，主要原因系童 装销售的假期属性更强。营运方面，我们预计截至 2025Q4 末安踏品牌库销比略 高于 5，整体处于健康水平。 展望 2026 年：我们判断电商业务销售对比 2025 年或有望改善，同时线下渠道持 续推进差异化门店建设（包括安踏冠军店、灯塔店等），产品端继续发力 PG7 系列 产品、马赫系列以及竞速 C 系列，多举措下有望提振安踏品牌表现 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Anta Sports Group achieved double-digit revenue growth in the first half of the year, with healthy and controllable discount inventory levels [1][4] - In Q2 2025, Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit growth, while FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth, and other brands saw a remarkable 50-55% growth [2][4] - The management maintains its annual guidance for all brands despite the overall market pressure [4][5] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In Q2 2025, Anta's overall revenue growth was double digits, with FILA and other brands performing well. The main brand's low single-digit growth was impacted by channel adjustments [3][5] - The online discount levels were influenced by the extended 618 promotional period, and inventory levels remained healthy [3][5] Brand Performance - Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit revenue growth in Q2 2025, with a sell-through ratio of five months at the end of the quarter. The running shoe series performed exceptionally well [6][9] - FILA's revenue growth was in the mid-single digits, with strong performance in golf and tennis categories [9][14] - Other brands, particularly KOLON, saw revenue growth exceeding 70%, while Descente grew over 40% [10] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for Anta's net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 134.8 billion, 154.6 billion, and 170.0 billion respectively, with comparable profit growth rates of 13.0%, 14.7%, and 10.0% [4][15] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 113-118 HKD, corresponding to a 2025 PE of 22-23X [4][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Anta Sports, with a target price of HK$102.80, representing a potential upside of 9.4% from the current price of HK$94.05 [2][8]. Core Insights - Anta Sports continues to gain market share through product upgrades and channel innovations, with brand sell-through exceeding RMB 40 billion in FY24, achieving high single-digit growth [3][13]. - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to enhance Anta's outdoor brand matrix, further solidifying its position in the high-end outdoor market [5][15]. - The FILA brand is experiencing growth due to a new CEO and an expanded product range, with sales expected to maintain mid-single-digit growth in 2025 and accelerate in subsequent years [4][16]. Summary by Sections Anta Brand Performance - Anta's brand revenue exceeded RMB 40 billion in 2024, driven by successful product upgrades and channel innovations, with a focus on high-end and mass-market positioning [3][13]. - The introduction of new product lines, such as the Anta Junior Series and various running shoe models, has contributed to significant sales growth [3][13]. FILA Brand Developments - FILA's revenue surpassed RMB 30 billion in 2024, with a strong online presence accounting for approximately 40% of sales [4][14]. - The brand's management transition is expected to support sustainable growth, with a focus on product positioning and brand development [4][14]. Other Brands and Acquisitions - Other brands under Anta, including DESCENTE and Kolon, reported significant revenue growth, with DESCENTE establishing a strong position in the high-end golf market [5][15]. - The planned acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for USD 290 million is anticipated to enhance Anta's outdoor product offerings and market presence [7][15]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Anta Sports are projected at RMB 78.97 billion for 2025, with a low double-digit growth rate expected through 2027 [8][16]. - Net profit estimates for the same period are RMB 13.39 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of -14.1% due to one-off impacts in 2024 [8][16].