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研判2025!中国软泡聚醚行业价格、产能及消费量分析:行业产能过剩凸显,价格承压下行趋势延续[图]
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-07-05 01:08
Industry Overview - As of late May 2025, the price of soft foam polyether in China is 0.73 million yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 19.65% [1][9] - The decline in prices is attributed to the fluctuation and decrease in upstream raw material prices, such as propylene oxide, and rapid expansion of domestic production capacity, which reached 9.5 million tons per year by February 2025, with expectations to exceed 11 million tons per year [1][9][10] - The rapid increase in production capacity has led to a significant rise in market supply, while demand growth has not kept pace, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand [1][9] Industry Development History - The soft foam polyether industry in China has undergone four main stages: the initial stage (1989-1993), rapid development (1993-1999), technological innovation (2000-2010), and green development (2010-present) [3][4][5] - The initial stage saw the establishment of the first large-scale polyether production facility in Tianjin, marking the beginning of industrial production [3] - The rapid development phase was characterized by the introduction of new products and significant increases in production capacity, with a focus on high-end applications [3] - The technological innovation phase involved advancements in production technology and increased government support for new materials [4] - The current green development phase emphasizes technological breakthroughs in catalysts and sustainable practices due to stricter environmental regulations [5] Industry Supply Chain - The upstream of the soft foam polyether industry includes basic chemical raw materials (propylene oxide, ethylene oxide), initiators (glycerol, propylene glycol), catalysts, and production equipment [7] - The midstream involves the manufacturing of soft foam polyether, while the downstream applications span across furniture, automotive, footwear, construction insulation, waterproof coatings, and packaging materials [7] Current Industry Status - The total production capacity of soft foam polyether in China was 9.413 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.34% [10] - Major companies like Wanhua Chemical, Longhua New Materials, and Changhua Chemical dominate the market, leveraging their technological and scale advantages [10][14] - The consumption of soft foam polyether in the first four months of 2025 reached 122.56 thousand tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.15%, driven by recovery in downstream sectors like furniture and automotive [12] Key Companies' Performance - Wanhua Chemical Group, established in 1978, is a significant player in the global polyether market, focusing on technological innovation and expanding its production capacity [18] - Longhua New Materials, founded in 2011, has become a leading company in the domestic soft foam polyether industry, achieving a market share of 30% in polymer polyols [16] - In 2024, Longhua New Materials reported a revenue of 5.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.01% [16] Industry Development Trends - The industry is expected to see optimization of production capacity and increased concentration, with leading companies like Wanhua Chemical and Longhua New Materials driving capacity consolidation [20] - There is a strong emphasis on technological innovation and green transformation, with companies adopting low-VOC formulations and developing bio-based polyethers [21][22] - Downstream demand is diversifying, with traditional markets slowing while new sectors like automotive and cold chain logistics are emerging as key growth areas [23]
研判2025!中国聚醚多元醇行业产业链、产量及重点企业分析:结构性矛盾凸显,产业升级迫在眉睫[图]
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-07-04 01:29
Industry Overview - Polyether polyols are essential raw materials for polyurethane, widely used in furniture, automotive, home appliances, and building insulation industries [1][12] - In 2024, China's polyether polyol production is projected to reach 5.48 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.07% [1][12] - Despite reaching a record high, the industry's capacity utilization rate remains below 70%, with intense competition in low-end products [1][12] - High-end specialty polyethers account for less than 30% of the market, with an import dependency exceeding 15%, indicating significant room for industrial upgrades [1][12] Industry Development History - The development of China's polyether polyol industry has gone through four stages, starting from 1980 to 1992, with the establishment of the largest polyether facility in Tianjin [4] - From 1993 to 1999, the industry experienced rapid growth, with production capacity reaching 260,000 tons per year by the end of 1996, a nearly 50% increase from 1994 [4] - The period from 2000 to 2010 focused on technological innovation, with significant advancements in production techniques and government support for new materials [4] - Since 2010, the industry has entered a phase of green development, with production capacity reaching 7.85 million tons by 2023, but with a capacity utilization rate of only about 63.16% [5][6] Industry Chain - The upstream of the polyether polyol industry includes basic chemical raw materials such as propylene oxide and ethylene oxide, as well as initiators and catalysts [8] - The midstream involves the production and manufacturing of polyether polyols, while the downstream applications span automotive, soft furniture, and footwear sectors [8] Current Industry Status - The demand for polyether polyols is driven by the continuous growth of the Chinese economy and consumption upgrades, leading to a steady increase in production [12] - The industry faces challenges such as low-end product homogenization and a need for higher-end product development [12] Key Companies' Performance - Wanhua Chemical, as a leading player, holds a 7% market share in the domestic polyether polyol market, with a production capacity of 1.59 million tons per year [14][16] - Longhua New Material focuses on high solid content and low VOC products, achieving a revenue of 5.513 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.28% [18] Industry Development Trends 1. **Accelerated Green Transformation and High-end Development** - The industry is moving towards green low-carbon transformation, with leading companies investing in bio-based raw material technologies [20] - Wanhua Chemical plans to establish a 100,000-ton/year bio-based polyether facility by 2025, reducing carbon emissions by 40% compared to traditional methods [20] 2. **Diversification of Market Demand and Structural Upgrades** - The demand structure is evolving, with traditional soft foam polyols growing slowly while new applications in cold chain logistics and electric vehicles are surging [21][22] 3. **Integration of Industry Chain and Deepening Global Layout** - The industry concentration is increasing, with leading companies enhancing cost advantages through vertical integration [23] - Wanhua Chemical has achieved over 80% self-sufficiency in propylene oxide, significantly reducing costs compared to purchasing raw materials [23]