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永金证券晨会纪要-20250730
永丰金证券· 2025-07-30 00:03
Market Overview - The US stock market reached record highs last week, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.5% and up 28% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq rose 1.3% and is up 38% for the year [10] - The Hang Seng Index has risen for three consecutive weeks, gaining 1,472 points (+6.16%), but is expected to consolidate at high levels due to overbought technical indicators [8][10] - The onshore RMB reached a nearly 9-month high at around 6.92, indicating significant capital inflows [8] Economic Indicators - The US is expected to release July non-farm payroll data, with a forecast increase of 102,000 jobs, down from 147,000 in the previous month [10] - The preliminary estimate for Q2 GDP is expected to show a 3% year-on-year increase, significantly better than the 0.5% contraction in Q1 [10] - The core PCE price index is anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year [10] Company Focus - Major tech companies including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are set to announce their quarterly earnings this week, with market attention on whether AI capital expenditures will yield returns [8][10] - The report highlights the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with significant inflows into traditional high-yield stocks and local real estate stocks [12] - The report notes that the stock of Miniso (9896) is recommended for purchase, leveraging its global expansion and operational efficiency [20] Sector Analysis - The healthcare sector is highlighted, with China National Pharmaceutical Group (1099) benefiting from favorable government policies and holding a 33.3% market share in China's pharmaceutical distribution market [20] - The report mentions the performance of Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX), which reported a 20.05% year-on-year revenue increase to $2.173 billion, exceeding market expectations [22]