永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 2025/7/31 | 麥嘉嘉 | 研究部主管 | avis.mak@sinopac.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 張雪婷 | 研究部經理 | samantha.cheung@sinopac.com | | 林仲全 | 研究部資深專員 | kobe.lin@sinopac.com | 1 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 永豐金證券亞洲研究部 -今日市埸焦點及策略 今日市埸主要焦點 股市及產品投資策略 2 • 美聯儲按兵不動｜利率維持4.25%-4.5%，符合預期 • 美國GDP超預期｜美次季GDP增3%勝預期，主因之前為避開關 稅而加快進口的活動告一段落，令淨出口大幅推高GDP • 美債息率上升｜美國10年期債息一度漲5.36個基點，至4.374厘 • 美元強勢｜美滙指數逼近100，歐元下挫1.24% • A股重估動能強｜ 滬深300指數往績PE和PB低見12.3倍及1.24 倍，屬便宜水平；股息率2.96也遠高於10年期國債孳息率 • A股中長期價值猶在｜政策利好，指數縱有短期調整，但沽壓 不大，後市走勢仍值得看好 • 布局A股ETF ｜估值重估，建議定期分批吸 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market reached record highs last week, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.5% and up 28% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq rose 1.3% and is up 38% for the year [10] - The Hang Seng Index has risen for three consecutive weeks, gaining 1,472 points (+6.16%), but is expected to consolidate at high levels due to overbought technical indicators [8][10] - The onshore RMB reached a nearly 9-month high at around 6.92, indicating significant capital inflows [8] Economic Indicators - The US is expected to release July non-farm payroll data, with a forecast increase of 102,000 jobs, down from 147,000 in the previous month [10] - The preliminary estimate for Q2 GDP is expected to show a 3% year-on-year increase, significantly better than the 0.5% contraction in Q1 [10] - The core PCE price index is anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year [10] Company Focus - Major tech companies including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are set to announce their quarterly earnings this week, with market attention on whether AI capital expenditures will yield returns [8][10] - The report highlights the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with significant inflows into traditional high-yield stocks and local real estate stocks [12] - The report notes that the stock of Miniso (9896) is recommended for purchase, leveraging its global expansion and operational efficiency [20] Sector Analysis - The healthcare sector is highlighted, with China National Pharmaceutical Group (1099) benefiting from favorable government policies and holding a 33.3% market share in China's pharmaceutical distribution market [20] - The report mentions the performance of Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX), which reported a 20.05% year-on-year revenue increase to $2.173 billion, exceeding market expectations [22]

據報歐盟和美國即將達成關稅協議，美國總統特朗普亦稱，將對世界其他大部 分國家徵收 15%至 50%的簡單關稅。港股連升四個交易日後，24 日開市略為回 吐，恒指低開 9 點，惟其後重拾升勢，一度漲 197 點高見 25,735 點，再創逾三 年高位，全日收報 25,667 點，升 129 點或 0.5%，呈五連升；國指升 16 點或 0.2%， 收報 9,257 點；恒生科技指數則跌 2 點，收報 5,743 點。港股全日成交 2,948.11 億元。 人民銀行 24 日公開市場開展 3,310 億元人民幣七天期逆回購操作，操作利率持 平於 1.4%。有 4,505 億元逆回購到期，單日淨回籠 1,195 億元。人民幣兌美元中 間價報 7.1385，上調 29 點，升至去年 11 月以來高，並首次強於 7.14。A 股三 大指數表現持續向好，午後升幅擴大，滬指重上 3,600 點水平，高見 3,608，全 日升 23 點或 0.7%，近高收報 3,605 點創逾九個月高，成交額 8,522 億元；深成 指升 134 點或 1.2%，以全日高位收報 11,193 點創逾八個月高，成交額 9,925 億 元；創業 ...