康耐特光学 20260108 康耐特光学作为全球镜片行业的隐形冠军，具备稳定的业绩贡献和显著的技术 壁垒。公司在 AI 眼镜领域拥有先发优势，有望成为全球 AR 眼镜核心供应商， 充分受益于全球 AI 眼镜市场的增长红利。2026 年，康耐特光学首次纳入国家 补贴，并且在 CES 展会上引起广泛关注。预计未来几年，AI 眼镜出货量将大幅 提升，公司有望占据 30%的市场份额，每副均价提升至 300-400 元，净利润 率达到 30-35%。基于这些因素，公司市值有望达到 500-600 亿元。 康耐特光学当前估值及未来增长空间如何？ 目前康耐特光学估值约为 460 亿元，从长期来看，有望实现两到三倍的增长空 间，市值上限可达 500-600 亿元。短期内，公司受益于 1 月 1 日的新国补政 策和 CES 展会等催化因素。今年（2026 年）公司业绩预计为 6.5 亿元左右， AI 眼镜作为 AI 大模型落地移动端最佳载体，市场空间广阔。Meta 等龙 头企业预计 AI 眼镜将替代 AR 眼镜及手机，市场规模达 6 亿台，对应 2 万亿人民币市场。 康耐特光学积极布局海外产能，日本工厂已投产，泰国基地也将落地 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profit growth rates of 25.5%, 22.64%, and 23.76% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. Core Insights - The company has issued a positive profit forecast, expecting a net profit growth of no less than 30% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [2]. - The growth in the first half of 2025 is primarily driven by the increase in sales of high refractive index and functional lenses, leading to an optimized product mix and rising average selling prices [3]. - The smart glasses industry is accelerating, with a significant increase in global shipments, indicating a growing market opportunity for the company [3]. - The company's customization capabilities and technological advantages are expected to drive both volume and price increases, supported by strategic partnerships and new production lines [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 2,472 million RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 19.94%, and net profits of 538 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 30.96% [9]. - The projected diluted earnings per share for 2025 is 1.12 RMB, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.07 [9]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 25.32% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [9].