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高盛:料国内多晶硅价格下跌 更看好胶膜、高效模组及颗粒硅企业
智通财经网· 2025-09-22 03:48
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the solar energy sector in mainland China has seen stock price increases since early July, driven by rising upstream prices and a significant increase in domestic polysilicon prices by approximately 40% from July to August [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that the market has priced in a polysilicon price of 60 RMB per kilogram, but this level seems too high given the weak demand outlook and the accelerating cost reduction among leading companies [1] - The firm forecasts that polysilicon prices may decline by 20% to 42 RMB per kilogram, while module prices are expected to remain at 0.67 RMB per watt [1] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the market is overlooking the rapid cost reductions of leading companies, which will need to lower prices and cut costs to gain market share amid weak demand [1] - The firm is more optimistic about companies involved in encapsulants, high-efficiency modules, and granular silicon, rather than glass manufacturers [1] - Consequently, Goldman Sachs has assigned a "sell" rating to Flat Glass Group (06865) and Xinyi Solar (00968), maintaining target prices of 6.6 HKD and 1.9 HKD respectively [1]