一场以能效为标尺的行业洗牌正在多晶硅领域上演。头部企业凭借技术优势获得发展先机，而落后产能 则面临退出市场的命运。 该标准正式实施后，多晶硅单位产品能耗不达基准值要求（6.4kgce/kg）的企业将被限期整改，逾期未 改或整改后未达准入值（5.5kgce/kg）的企业将被关停。 9月22日，一位头部多晶硅企业工作人员告诉新京报贝壳财经记者，"新能耗标准将推动行业落后产能清 退，即便是我们这样的头部企业，也存在需要淘汰的落后产能，可以预见会有相当一部分企业受到较大 影响。" 能耗新标呈现"大幅收紧"特征 对于多晶硅生产企业来说，新能耗标准意味着生存红线的重新划定。 最新意见稿称，拟修订的多晶硅单位产品综合能耗1级、2级、3级分别≤5、5.5和6.4kgce/kg，相比目前 正在执行的≤7.5、8.5和10.5kgce/kg大幅收紧。 图片 按文件中的电力对应标煤折算系数0.1229kgce/KWh，此次征求意见稿中5、5.5、6.4kgce/kg，对应电耗 分别为40.7、44.8、52.1度/kg。另外文件新增了颗粒硅能耗标准，1-3级分别对应3.6、4.0、5.0kgce/kg， 对应电耗29.3、32.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant industry reshuffle is occurring in the polysilicon sector, driven by new energy consumption standards that favor technologically advanced companies while pushing outdated capacities out of the market [2][8]. Group 1: New Energy Consumption Standards - The National Standardization Administration has released draft standards for polysilicon and silicon products, establishing strict energy consumption limits [2]. - The new standards set the energy consumption limits for polysilicon at 6.4 kgce/kg, with a requirement to reduce to 5.5 kgce/kg for compliance, significantly tightening previous limits [2][4]. - The new standards will lead to the closure of companies that fail to meet the revised energy consumption benchmarks within a specified timeframe [4][6]. Group 2: Impact on Industry Capacity - Following the implementation of the new standards, the effective domestic polysilicon production capacity is expected to decrease to approximately 2.4 million tons per year, a reduction of 16.4% compared to the end of 2024 [4]. - The new standards could result in the shutdown of over 30% of the industry’s capacity, significantly alleviating the current overcapacity situation [4][7]. - Despite the reduction, the remaining capacity will still exceed the projected demand of 1.5 million tons by 2026 by about 60% [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Leading companies like GCL-Poly and Tongwei are expected to maintain a competitive edge due to their compliance with the new energy standards [5][8]. - GCL-Poly's granular silicon energy consumption meets the new first-level standard, while Tongwei's energy consumption is close to the second-level standard, positioning them favorably in the market [5][8]. - The new standards are anticipated to enhance the "head effect" in the photovoltaic industry, favoring companies that can adapt and innovate [5][7]. Group 4: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The new energy standards represent a significant challenge for many polysilicon producers, necessitating substantial investments in technology upgrades to remain competitive [6][8]. - The industry is experiencing a shift towards higher quality requirements, which may lead to increased costs for companies unable to adapt quickly [6][7]. - The implementation of these standards is part of a broader strategy to improve profitability across the photovoltaic supply chain, with various measures being taken to stabilize the market [7].

Group 1 - The National Standardization Administration has released a draft for public consultation on three mandatory national standards, including stricter energy consumption limits for polysilicon products [1] - The new energy consumption standards are categorized into three levels, tightening the requirements compared to those proposed in the industry meeting in July [1] - Companies failing to meet the third-level standard must rectify within a specified period, and those that do not comply or fail to reach the second-level standard will be forced to shut down [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that the effective domestic polysilicon production capacity will significantly decrease from the current 3.5 million tons to approximately 2.4 million tons, representing a reduction of 31.4% [1] - The government aims to eliminate outdated production capacity and promote a more sustainable photovoltaic industry by raising technical standards [1] - Companies utilizing the lowest energy-consuming granular silicon production technology are expected to benefit, with GCL-Poly Energy Holdings (03800) identified as a preferred stock [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the solar energy sector in mainland China has seen stock price increases since early July, driven by rising upstream prices and a significant increase in domestic polysilicon prices by approximately 40% from July to August [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that the market has priced in a polysilicon price of 60 RMB per kilogram, but this level seems too high given the weak demand outlook and the accelerating cost reduction among leading companies [1] - The firm forecasts that polysilicon prices may decline by 20% to 42 RMB per kilogram, while module prices are expected to remain at 0.67 RMB per watt [1] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the market is overlooking the rapid cost reductions of leading companies, which will need to lower prices and cut costs to gain market share amid weak demand [1] - The firm is more optimistic about companies involved in encapsulants, high-efficiency modules, and granular silicon, rather than glass manufacturers [1] - Consequently, Goldman Sachs has assigned a "sell" rating to Flat Glass Group (06865) and Xinyi Solar (00968), maintaining target prices of 6.6 HKD and 1.9 HKD respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new mandatory national standards for energy consumption in polysilicon production are stricter than previously proposed, aiming to reduce inefficient production capacity in the photovoltaic industry [1] Industry Summary - The National Standardization Administration has released a draft for public consultation on three mandatory national standards, including stricter energy consumption limits for polysilicon [1] - The new energy consumption standards are categorized into three levels, tightening the requirements compared to those discussed in the industry meeting in July [1] - Companies failing to meet the third-level standard must rectify within a specified period, with non-compliance leading to mandatory shutdowns if they do not achieve at least the second-level standard [1] Company Summary - Following the implementation of the new regulations, domestic polysilicon effective production capacity is expected to decrease significantly from 3.5 million tons to approximately 2.4 million tons, representing a reduction of 31.4% [1] - The government aims to eliminate outdated production capacity and promote a more sustainable photovoltaic industry by raising technical standards [1] - Companies utilizing the lowest energy-consuming granular silicon production technology are expected to benefit, with LONGi Green Energy being identified as a preferred stock [1]

Core Insights - Tongwei Co., Ltd. has become the first company in the global photovoltaic industry to enter the Fortune Global 500 list in 2023, marking a significant achievement for both Sichuan manufacturing and the water and photovoltaic sectors [1][3] - Despite the challenging market conditions that have led to over 150 photovoltaic companies in China going bankrupt since 2024, Tongwei has maintained its leading position in the industry [4] - The company has undergone a strategic restructuring of its business segments since 2025, focusing on optimizing its operations [4][11] Business Performance - As of mid-2025, Tongwei's production capacity includes over 900,000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon, over 150 GW of solar cells, and over 90 GW of modules [5] - In 2024, Tongwei signed nearly 40 billion yuan in orders with Longi Green Energy, showcasing its strong market presence [5] - The company reported a total loss of approximately 119.94 billion yuan for the entirety of 2024 and the first half of 2025, with significant losses attributed to its subsidiary Sichuan Yongxiang [9][10] Strategic Decisions - In February 2025, Tongwei decided to "strategically abandon" its battery cell business, which had previously been a stronghold for the company, due to ongoing patent disputes and production issues at its Southeast Asian factories [7][9] - The company has engaged in financing activities to alleviate cash flow pressures, raising approximately 49.16 billion yuan for Sichuan Yongxiang [10][11] Financial Health - As of mid-2025, Tongwei's cash and cash equivalents exceeded 33.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.9 billion yuan increase from the end of 2024 [13] - The company has managed to maintain a stable cash flow, which is crucial for navigating the current photovoltaic market cycle [12][15] Competitive Landscape - Tongwei's cost control capabilities are under scrutiny, especially in comparison to its main competitor, GCL-Poly Energy Holdings, which has demonstrated lower production costs for granular silicon [15][17] - The average production cash cost for Tongwei's multi-crystalline silicon remains between 26 to 29 yuan/kg, while GCL-Poly's costs have been reported at 25.31 yuan/kg [17][19] Conclusion - Tongwei has successfully integrated itself across the entire photovoltaic supply chain, positioning itself ahead of many competitors in terms of scale and cash flow [19] - The company's approach to navigating the current market cycle contrasts with GCL-Poly's focus on technological cost reduction, highlighting two different strategies for survival in the industry [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy sector [8] Core Views - The domestic computing power is accelerating iteration and deployment, with a focus on the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) industry chain, which is expected to drive demand growth in the data center industry chain and enhance order visibility [1][14] - The report highlights opportunities in various sub-industries, including lithium batteries and materials, industrial control, energy storage, photovoltaic, and wind power [2] Summary by Sections Sub-industry Insights - **New Energy Vehicles**: Positive outlook on lithium battery and material segments [2] - **Industrial Control**: Focus on the AIDC industry chain due to accelerated domestic computing power [2] - **Energy Storage**: Since 2025, over 208 GWh of energy storage orders have been signed for overseas markets, indicating strong potential for domestic companies [2][15] - **Photovoltaics**: Significant results from anti-involution policies, with continuous price increases in the industry chain [2][17] - **Wind Power**: Progress in multiple domestic offshore wind power projects [2][22] Key Companies and Developments - **GCL-Poly Energy**: Notable cost advantages in granular silicon, with a steady increase in market share [3][26] - **Sungrow Power Supply**: Maintains a leading position in the solar-storage sector, with accelerated AIDC layout [3][27] Recommended Companies - **GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK)**: Target price of 2.22, rated as "Buy" [10][25] - **Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH)**: Target price of 147.42, rated as "Buy" [10][25]

Group 1 - The company announced a strategic financing agreement with Wujing Capital to raise approximately $700 million, aimed at strengthening capital reserves, developing new growth areas in silane, and optimizing capital structure [1] - The funds will be used for three main purposes: 1) reserve funds for supply-side reform to promote structural adjustments in polysilicon capacity; 2) enhancing the second curve of silane gas to achieve overseas substitution with the world's leading capacity and output, primarily for semiconductor, photovoltaic, and lithium battery sectors; 3) optimizing the company's capital structure by supplementing working capital and repaying existing loans [1] - The company is expected to benefit from industry self-discipline and the gradual implementation of supply-side policies, leading to significant profit recovery potential [1] Group 2 - Silicon materials are identified as a core aspect of the photovoltaic industry's efforts to combat disorderly competition, with supply-side optimization expected in Q4 [2] - The National Standardization Administration has proposed stricter energy consumption standards for polysilicon and germanium products, which may lead to regulatory control over high-energy-consuming capacities [2] - The company maintains a profit forecast for 2025-2027 with net profits of -2.304 billion, 1.276 billion, and 2.140 billion yuan respectively, and a target price of 2.22 HKD based on a 45x PE ratio for 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The tightening of energy consumption standards for polysilicon reflects the government's strong commitment to "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry, using higher technical standards as a primary means to eliminate outdated production capacity [1] Industry Summary - On September 16, the "Energy Consumption Limits for Polysilicon and Germanium Products" was released, setting the comprehensive energy consumption for rod silicon at 5/5.5/6.4 kgce/kg for grades 1/2/3, significantly stricter than the previously indicated limits of 5/6/7.5 kgce/kg from the industry meeting on July 24 [1] - Following the implementation of this standard, companies that do not meet the grade 3 standard will be given a deadline for rectification, and those that fail to comply or do not meet the grade 2 standard after rectification will be shut down [1] - Preliminary statistics from the Silicon Industry Association indicate that domestic polysilicon effective capacity will decrease to approximately 2.4 million tons, a significant reduction of 31.4% compared to the existing capacity of 3.5 million tons [1] Company Summary - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic industry’s "anti-involution" efforts, with a preference for leading companies in low energy consumption, specifically highlighting GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (03800) as a top choice [1]

Group 1 - GCL-Poly Energy announced a strategic financing agreement with Infini Capital, aiming to raise approximately HKD 54.46 billion (around USD 7 billion) through a private placement of about 4.736 billion shares [2] - The financing will support supply-side structural reforms and facilitate adjustments in the polysilicon production capacity, aligning with the industry's "anti-involution" initiatives [2][4] - A specialized industrial fund will be established to consolidate inefficient and low-quality excess capacity in the polysilicon sector, promoting resource concentration towards high-quality production [2][3] Group 2 - The draft regulation on energy consumption limits for polysilicon production has been released, which may lead to the exit of non-compliant capacities from the market [3] - Following the structural adjustments, the effective domestic polysilicon capacity is expected to decrease to approximately 2.4 million tons per year, a reduction of 16.4% compared to the end of 2024 [3] - GCL-Poly plans to leverage its leading silane gas production capacity to meet the rising demand in semiconductor and battery industries, creating a new growth avenue [3][4] Group 3 - GCL-Poly reported a revenue of CNY 5.735 billion with a net loss of CNY 1.776 billion for the first half of 2025, while EBITDA increased by 325.8% year-on-year to approximately CNY 380 million [5] - The average cash production cost of granular silicon has decreased to CNY 25.31 per kilogram, a 6.5% reduction from the first quarter of 2025 [5] - Market expectations are high for GCL-Poly to achieve profitability, with analysts optimistic about the company's ability to turn losses into profits amid stabilizing prices and decreasing production costs [5]