光储 2026 年展望：光伏蛰伏迎拐点，储能方兴未艾时 20260108 摘要 2027 年国内光伏装机量预计下降至 180-200GW，同比下降约 35%， 主要受前期抢装影响。集中式电站依赖大基地项目驱动，分布式光伏年 底或有修复，但整体需求下滑。 全球组件需求预计在 2027 年降至 600GW 以下，同比下降约 8.5%。 海外市场出口同比下降约 5%，欧洲、拉美需求稳定，新兴市场需求较 好，但美国市场因政策影响呈现负增长。 储能市场快速发展，政策支持和峰谷价差扩大推动商业模式成熟。中国 新增招标量同比增长 75%以上，美国受政策影响出现抢装，欧洲转向大 规模储能，新兴市场需求多点开花，预计明年全球储能市场增长超 40%。 光伏产业链企业报表有望在二季度改善，不低于成本价销售政策和反内 卷措施推动价格修复，高功率组件技术进步助力企业提升盈利能力。 光伏主产业链反内卷取得阶段性成果，硅料、硅片、电池、组件价格回 暖，部分公司三季度业绩扭亏为盈。组件格局优化，TOPCon 等新技术 提升溢价。 Q&A 2026 年光伏储能的需求和供给展望如何？ 2026 年光伏储能市场预计将出现负增长。根据 1-11 月 ...

1月6日，激智科技涨1.94%，成交额1.87亿元。两融数据显示，当日激智科技获融资买入额3168.87万 元，融资偿还4054.29万元，融资净买入-885.41万元。截至1月6日，激智科技融资融券余额合计3.38亿 元。 分红方面，激智科技A股上市后累计派现1.94亿元。近三年，累计派现1.04亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，激智科技十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第五大流 通股东，持股171.35万股，为新进股东。招商量化精选股票发起式A（001917）退出十大流通股东之 列。 责任编辑：小浪快报 融券方面，激智科技1月6日融券偿还0.00股，融券卖出0.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额0.00元； 融券余量100.00股，融券余额1895.00元，超过近一年70%分位水平，处于较高位。 资料显示，宁波激智科技股份有限公司位于浙江省宁波高新区晶源路9号，成立日期2007年3月9日，上 市日期2016年11月15日，公司主营业务涉及主要研发、生产、销售光学膜及功能性薄膜产品。主营业务 收入构成为：光学薄膜62.81%，胶膜14.18%，背板及反光膜13.37%，其他7.12%，窗 ...

Summary of Foster's Conference Call Company Overview - Foster has a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-asset ratio below 20% and no bank debt, holding approximately 8 billion yuan in cash reserves to support business development and return value to investors. The cash dividend ratio exceeded 50% last year, with over 600 million yuan distributed, and this trend will continue this year [2][5]. Industry Insights - The price of EVA films is expected to rebound by 2026, with Foster maintaining low inventory levels of about one month. The proportion of white EVA films is decreasing, with EVA and POE films each accounting for nearly half of the production [2][7]. - The photovoltaic new materials sector is anticipated to remain stable, with overseas markets maintaining high demand, potentially increasing market share. Electronic materials are expected to grow by over 30%, and the aluminum-plastic film business is also projected to grow by over 30%, driven by solid-state battery applications [2][11]. Business Performance - In the photovoltaic sector, Foster's film production is clearing quickly, with a stable market share. The overseas market, particularly in Thailand and Vietnam, accounts for about 20% of sales. A market reversal is expected in the second half of 2026 [3]. - The electronic materials segment is experiencing explosive demand, especially in high-end electronic materials for servers, leading to significant sales growth [3]. - The aluminum-plastic film business is rapidly developing, with current production capacity at 30 million square meters, expanding to 50 million square meters, and expected to achieve profitability next year [4][23]. Future Projections - The company anticipates a steady increase in shipments in the photovoltaic new materials sector in 2026, with uncertainties in the domestic market but high expectations for overseas markets. The growth in electronic materials and aluminum-plastic films is expected to contribute significantly to overall business growth [11]. - The solid-state battery market is projected to drive demand for aluminum-plastic films due to their lightweight and extensibility advantages [3][11]. Production and Expansion Plans - Foster's overseas production capacity is nearly fully utilized, with production and sales doubling, primarily serving clients in India and the Middle East. The company is evaluating plans for a factory in the U.S. to adapt to policy changes [16]. - A domestic project worth 250 million yuan has been delayed until the end of next year, with strategic adjustments based on market demand [16]. Product Development and Innovations - Foster is advancing in the sensitive area of photonic films for space applications, showcasing the company's ability to innovate by combining materials from different fields [9]. - The company is also focusing on high-end electronic materials, with a significant push into advanced substrate applications, particularly in the automotive and server sectors [18]. Financial Health and Risk Management - The company maintains a strong financial position with a low risk of impairment due to increasing overseas sales, which are less likely to default [24]. - The average price of dry films is around 5 yuan, with high-end products reaching up to 30 yuan, and the overall gross margin is currently at 24% [20]. Conclusion - Foster is well-positioned for growth in the photovoltaic, electronic materials, and aluminum-plastic film sectors, with a strong financial foundation and strategic plans for expansion and innovation. The company is expected to continue delivering value to investors while navigating market challenges and opportunities.

12月15日晚，苏州中来光伏新材股份有限公司（300393.SZ，以下简称"中来股份"）发布公告称，副董事长兼总经理林建伟因未履行私募基金差额补足承 诺，收到江苏证监局出具的责令改正措施决定，相关违规行为已记入证券期货市场诚信档案，截至目前尚有1.77亿元补偿款未支付。 公开资料显示，2021年1月，时任中来股份董事长、总经理的林建伟就中来股份2亿元认购的4只私募基金（泓盛腾龙1号、腾龙4号、方际正帆1号、正帆顺风 2号）损失作出公开承诺：若相关诉讼或仲裁裁决生效满两年后，中来股份仍未追回投资本金损失差额，其将在3个月内补足。据了解，上述私募基金于2020 年12月出现大额亏损，亏损幅度达97.18%，后续相关仲裁陆续裁决基金管理人需赔偿损失，但中来股份仅累计收回本金2152.78万元。按照承诺约定，林建 伟应于2025年8月12日前支付1.78亿元差额补偿款，然而其仅支付100万元，剩余1.77亿元逾期未履约，构成违规。 值得注意的是，深交所此前已于12月12日向林建伟下发监管函，指出其行为违反相关上市规则。此外，中来股份针对上述私募基金的相关诉讼及仲裁虽已生 效，但执行回款微薄，多数案件处于终本执行状态， ...

Power Industry - The power demand is expected to maintain a steady growth of 5% to 6% in 2026, driven by stable macroeconomic development and new growth drivers, while the supply-demand balance remains loose, leading to a downward trend in grid electricity prices, with pressure shifting from South China to East China [4][5] - New energy investment is projected to decline from the 2025 peak, with an expected new installed capacity of 250 to 300 GW in 2026, focusing on large bases and offshore wind power, while the industry structure is likely to concentrate further towards state-owned enterprises [4][5] - The recommended investment order based on sector trends and investor risk preferences is as follows: waste-to-energy > nuclear power > thermal power > new energy [5] Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry is facing temporary pressure on demand growth, with a projected global new installed capacity growth of approximately -10%, but the overall profitability of the industry chain has bottomed out and is slightly recovering [2][9] - The industry is expected to achieve marginal improvements in supply-demand relationships and further price recovery in 2026, with polysilicon and integrated components likely to turn profitable, while auxiliary materials like glass and films may see a rebound in profitability [9][10] - Domestic energy storage is anticipated to reach an economic turning point, benefiting from the increase in wind and solar installations, with significant investment opportunities arising from both domestic and overseas demand [9][10] Wind Power - The outlook for new wind power installations in 2026 is optimistic, with expected new capacity of 120 to 130 GW, driven by rising wind turbine prices, a recovery in offshore wind, and expansion in export directions [3][12] - The profitability of the wind power industry chain is expected to improve significantly, with the wind turbine segment likely to see a rebound in profitability due to increased demand and higher prices [12][13] - The domestic offshore wind sector is projected to continue its recovery, with significant growth potential in 2026, particularly in the context of a low base from 2025 [12][13]

Core Insights - Suzhou Saiwu Application Technology Co., Ltd. reported a 4.84% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, reaching 687 million yuan, with significant contributions from its core businesses, particularly the film sector [2] - The company is focusing on overseas market expansion and continuous breakthroughs in AI research and perovskite materials, laying a solid foundation for long-term development [1][9] Revenue Performance - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 was 687 million yuan, marking a 4.84% increase year-on-year, with the film business leading the growth [2] - The film segment generated 401 million yuan, a substantial increase of 57.5%, with a shipment volume of 85.05 million square meters [2] - Non-photovoltaic business revenue share rose to 28.6%, indicating successful diversification efforts [2] Business Highlights - The film business remains robust, with full production capacity in Vietnam and plans to expand into markets such as India, the EU, Japan, Turkey, and Taiwan [3] - The lithium battery and new energy vehicle materials segment saw significant growth, with product shipments increasing by 85.0% and 77.1% respectively [5] - The consumer electronics segment is driven by OLED protective films and acoustic materials, with ongoing product validations and small-scale shipments [6][7] Innovation and R&D - The semiconductor business is expanding, with increased market share for UV adhesive tapes and successful product validations for new materials [8] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance R&D efficiency, establishing a partnership with Suzhou University to create an AI laboratory [9] - The company is also focusing on solid-state battery trends, with several related products in development or customer validation stages [9]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - Focus on convertible bonds and related companies such as 精工钢构 (Jinggong Steel Structure), 有发股份 (Youfa Steel Pipe), 天能重工 (Tianneng Heavy Industry), 华特电子 (Huate Gas), 美景能源 (Meijing Energy), and 福斯特 (Foster). Core Points and Arguments - **Market Sentiment and Convertible Bonds**: Year-end market may see increased risk aversion, necessitating a chip exchange and focusing on buying opportunities at reasonable price points. The convertible bond market shrank in October due to some bonds being delisted and strong redemptions. Institutional allocations are diverging, with insurance reducing allocations and public funds increasing them [1][3][5]. - **Investment Strategies**: Recommended strategies include focusing on convertible bonds priced around 120-130 RMB in high-end manufacturing and those priced around 120-125 RMB with low valuations and improving fundamentals. These latter bonds have lower premium rates and may yield good odds following the third-quarter disclosures [1][6]. - **Company Performance**: - **精工钢构**: Expected revenue of 14.5 billion RMB in Q1-Q3 2025, a 21% YoY increase, with net profit of 589 million RMB, a 24% YoY increase. Anticipated overseas orders exceeding 6 billion RMB in 2025 [1][10][11]. - **有发股份**: Projected profit of 500 million RMB in 2025, benefiting from infrastructure policies and rising demand due to government growth plans [1][12]. - **天能重工**: Expected profit of 10-15 million RMB in 2025, with potential growth to 30-35 million RMB in 2026, driven by the wind power sector's high demand [1][16][17]. - **华特电子**: Revenue from specialty gases constitutes 65% of total revenue, with significant improvements in net profit due to recovering demand from major semiconductor clients [1][15]. - **美景能源**: Focused on coking coal and hydrogen energy, with a significant increase in gross margin and a valuation near historical lows, indicating potential for profit recovery [1][8]. - **福斯特**: Engaged in electronic materials and aluminum-plastic films, with strong growth potential due to collaborations with leading global clients [1][18][20]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Market Dynamics**: The convertible bond valuation is significantly influenced by stock market expectations, with a notable shift in market sentiment leading to a cautious outlook on bond valuations [1][5]. - **Investment in Infrastructure**: The five-year underground pipeline investment plan of 5 trillion RMB is expected to expand downstream demand, benefiting companies like 有发股份 [2][12]. - **Low Valuation Strategy**: In the current market environment, low valuation strategies may offer excess return potential, especially for convertible bonds priced between 80-90 RMB, which show strong investment value [1][9]. - **Future Growth Areas**: Companies are diversifying into high-growth areas such as hydrogen energy and quantum computing, indicating a strategic shift towards innovative sectors [1][8][18]. - **Dividend Policies**: Companies like 精工钢构 are increasing their dividend payout ratios, which may attract income-focused investors [1][11]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the performance and strategies of various companies within the convertible bond market and related sectors.

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 687 million yuan for Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.84%, driven by growth in the sales of films, lithium battery and new energy vehicle materials, and consumer electronics [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 98.77 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.6%, indicating strong financial health and capacity to withstand industry fluctuations [1] - Non-photovoltaic business revenue accounted for over 28.6% of total revenue, showing a robust year-on-year growth of 6.3%, validating the effectiveness of the company's diversified platform strategy [1][4] Cost Management and Efficiency - The company's period expenses decreased significantly to 49 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 28.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3.9%, with a period expense ratio of 7.1%, down 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company enhanced operational efficiency through technological upgrades and supply chain management improvements, alongside the introduction of the BLM model for strategic organizational transformation [2] Market Position and Product Development - The revenue from the film business reached 401 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.2% and a shipment volume growth of 57.5%, indicating a strong market position [3] - The company plans to expand its film business into overseas markets and promote the mass production of light conversion films in the TOPCon and HJT component markets [3] - The company has established strategic partnerships with leading domestic photovoltaic firms to provide comprehensive polymer material solutions for perovskite components [3] Non-Photovoltaic Business Growth - Non-photovoltaic business revenue rose to 28.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3 percentage points, driven by rapid growth in lithium battery and new energy vehicle materials, as well as consumer electronics [4] - The lithium battery and new energy vehicle materials segment saw a shipment volume increase of 85.0% and a revenue growth of 33.6% in Q3 2025, with production lines operating at full capacity [4] - The consumer electronics segment experienced a shipment volume increase of 77.1% and a revenue growth of 41.9%, primarily due to the rapid adoption of mainstream products [5] Semiconductor Business Expansion - The semiconductor segment reported a shipment volume increase of 17.4%, with the main product, UV release adhesive tape, gaining market share among chip packaging clients [6] - The company aims to enhance its market presence in the semiconductor materials sector by increasing the delivery of mainstream products and expanding its product matrix [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in shipments in Q3 2025, while its non-photovoltaic materials business continues to grow significantly [7] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.039 billion yuan from January to Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -117 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.46% [7] - The company expects improved profitability in Q4 2025 as the price of film products rebounds [7] - The non-photovoltaic materials business generated approximately 200-250 million yuan in revenue in Q3 2025, with the new energy materials segment growing over 50% year-on-year [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, now expecting net profits of -120 million yuan and 30 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a significant growth forecast for 2027 [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4.166 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.22% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 103.61 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.50% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at 0.24 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 49.28 [1] - The company’s total assets are estimated to be 4.383 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 38.93% [6][8] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is expected to be 365 million yuan in 2024 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 revenue decreased by 25% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to a slowdown in demand from component manufacturers and a conservative strategy to control film shipments [8] - The company is experiencing a breakthrough in its automotive materials business, which is expected to become a new growth driver [8] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 due to intense competition in the film sector, while maintaining the profit forecasts for 2026 and increasing those for 2027 [8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 870 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.62%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -208 million yuan, an increase of 16.43% year-on-year [8] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 237 million yuan, down 58.03% year-on-year and 25.44% quarter-on-quarter [8] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was -6.67%, a decrease of 3.60 percentage points year-on-year [8] Business Development Summary - The company is actively expanding its dimming film business, achieving new breakthroughs with projects for the Yangwang U8L and Mercedes V260 [8] - As of the end of October, the company's dimming film production capacity reached 200,000 square meters, with plans for a first phase of 1 million square meters by 2026 [8] Profit Forecast Summary - The company expects net profits attributable to the parent company to be -240 million yuan in 2025, 50 million yuan in 2026, and 190 million yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 57%, 120%, and 291% respectively [8]