1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The pulp market is expected to maintain high - level shock adjustment. The key lies in that the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved substantially following the price, and the downstream paper mills' procurement remains in a state of rigid demand and light trading. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of futures capital trends, the actual digestion of high - priced broadleaf pulp supplies, and whether the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand of downstream paper mills starts [98]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of pulp in Changshu Port was 525,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from the previous period, a 4.2% month - on - month decrease; the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.342 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week, a 0.2% month - on - month increase; the inventory in Gaolan Port was 41,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week, a 95.2% month - on - month increase. The total inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2.007 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a 0.5% month - on - month increase [5][6]. - Tianjin Jiulong Paper's 500,000 - ton natural pulp project started construction two months ahead of schedule. The project has a total investment of 2.5 billion yuan, with an expected annual output value of 8 billion yuan and an annual tax contribution of 300 million yuan [6]. Market Data - **Market Trends**: On January 9, 2026, the basis of silver star pulp was 50 yuan/ton, a 26.47% month - on - month decrease; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 150 yuan/ton, a 13.64% month - on - month decrease; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 200 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [13]. - **Basis and Month - to - Month Spread**: On January 9, 2026, the 01 - 03 month - to - month spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a 10% month - on - month increase; the 03 - 05 month - to - month spread was - 34 yuan/ton, a 6.25% month - on - month decrease [18]. Fundamental Data - **Price**: - The price difference between silver star and goldfish, and between Russian needle and goldfish continued to narrow. On January 9, 2026, the price difference between silver star and goldfish was 850 yuan/ton, a 5.56% month - on - month decrease; the price difference between Russian needle and goldfish was 650 yuan/ton, a 7.14% month - on - month decrease [23][25]. - The import profit of pulp decreased. On January 9, 2026, the import profit of coniferous pulp (silver star) was - 106.37 yuan/ton, a 167.39% month - on - month decrease; the import profit of broadleaf pulp (star) was - 543 yuan/ton, a 105.86% month - on - month decrease [28]. - The price of coniferous pulp in the Shandong market was generally stable, while the price of broadleaf pulp increased. The price of natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed different trends [31][34][39]. - **Supply**: - The wood chip purchase price of paper enterprises in East China remained stable this week [41]. - The prices of domestic broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp increased this period, and the supply of chemimechanical pulp increased [45]. - In November 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe and the global pulp shipping volume continued to decline [49]. - In October 2025, the shipping volume of W20 coniferous pulp was at a low level, and the inventory was high; the inventory of broadleaf pulp was at a high level, but the shipping volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [53]. - In October 2025, the export volume of coniferous pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China increased significantly month - on - month; in November 2025, the export volume of Chilean coniferous pulp to China decreased significantly month - on - month and was at a year - on - year low [57]. - In November 2025, the export volume of broadleaf pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China decreased month - on - month; in December 2025, the export volume of Brazilian broadleaf pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month [63]. - In November 2025, China's pulp imports increased, with coniferous pulp increasing by 4.93% month - on - month and broadleaf pulp increasing by 33.85% month - on - month [65]. - **Demand**: - The price of domestic offset paper was stable this week. The production of factories did not increase, and the market supply was abundant. The downstream consumption was weak, and the trading was light [69]. - The domestic coated paper market was mainly in a narrow - range adjustment. The production of factories changed little, and the market supply was abundant. The downstream consumption did not improve significantly, and the downstream customers generally purchased on demand [73]. - The price of white cardboard increased slightly this period. Under the cost pressure, large factories maintained the price increase attitude. The market supply was relatively loose, and some traders followed the price increase [77]. - The price of household paper in the market fluctuated upward this week. The overall trading activity in the market changed little, and the market wait - and - see sentiment was strong. The terminal downstream demand was difficult to improve significantly, and the industry's overall operating rate increased slightly [81]. - In November 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, catering revenue, and Chinese and Western medicines increased significantly month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month [85]. Inventory - **Futures Inventory**: On January 9, 2026, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (warehouse) was 124,500 tons, a 26.40% month - on - month increase; the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (factory warehouse) was 12,000 tons, a 100% month - on - month increase [88]. - **Spot Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.342 million tons, a 0.22% month - on - month increase; the inventory in Changshu Port was 525,000 tons, a 4.20% month - on - month decrease; the inventory in Gaolan Port, Tianjin Port, and Rizhao Port totaled 140,000 tons, a 27.27% month - on - month increase; the total inventory of the five ports was 2.007 million tons, a 0.50% month - on - month increase [95]. This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China continued to accumulate, with a 0.5% month - on - month increase [98]. - **Demand**: The procurement strategy of the downstream papermaking industry has not changed significantly, still mainly based on rigid demand and on - demand replenishment. The demand for coniferous pulp in the spot market is continuously weak [98]. - **View**: The market is expected to maintain high - level shock adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of futures capital trends, the actual digestion of high - priced broadleaf pulp supplies, and whether the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand of downstream paper mills starts [98]. - **Valuation**: On Friday, the basis of coniferous pulp silver star in the Shandong area was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton [98]. - **Strategy**: 1) Unilateral: Wait and see or try to go long at low prices; 2) Inter - period: Wait and see; 3) Inter - variety: Observe [98].