国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2026年3月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 资料来源：中纸网，隆众资讯 4 行情数据 1.【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年2月26日，中国纸浆常熟港库存68.5万吨，较上周期增涨8.7万吨，环比增涨14.5%。本周常熟港库存呈现累库走势。 2.【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年2月26日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存152.0万吨，较上周上涨8.2万吨，环比上涨5.7%。本周期青岛港库存周期内 呈现累库的走势。 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年2月26日，中国纸浆高栏港库存6.2万吨，较上周上涨3.0万吨，环比上涨93 ...

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 11 日 ＃summary＃ 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 Arauco 公布 2 月报价，针叶浆银星平盘 710 美元/吨，阔叶浆明星上调至 600 美元/吨。据PPPC，11月世界20产浆国化学浆出货量同比-6.9%，针叶浆同比-7 ...

以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | 金狮 | CFR | 780 | 6300 | 113.08 | | | 雄狮 | CFR | 730 | 5270 | -504.81 | | 智利 | 银星 | CFR信用证 90天 | 700 | 5310 | -249.54 | 纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/09 SP主力合约收盘价： 5234.00 | 日期 | 2026/02/06 | 2026/02/05 | 2026/02/04 | 2026/02/03 | 2026/02/02 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5234.00 | 5254.00 | 5324.00 | 5276.00 | 5266.00 | | 折美元价 | 658.48 | 660.96 | 670.20 | 664.21 | 661.49 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.38066% ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2026年2月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 1 6.【五洲特纸（江西）40万吨高档信息纸、70万吨纸及10万吨涂布纸项目环评第二次公示】五洲特种纸业（江西）有限公司年产40万吨高档信息纸、70万吨纸及10 万吨涂布纸项目环境影响报告书征求意见稿现已编制完成，即将报送环境保护行政主管部门审批。按照生态环境部部令第4号《环境影响评价公众参与办法》的规 定要求，现向公众公开项目有关环境保护的信息。 行业资讯 7.【浆自给率近80%！冠豪高新土地收储＋项目投产齐推进】2月2日，冠豪高新（600433.SH）就投资者关注的红塔仁恒土地收储及在建项目进展作出回应，多项重 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain in a pressured and volatile pattern in the short term. With port inventories entering an accumulation cycle, supply pressure becomes more apparent. The price of broadleaf pulp may continue to face downward pressure, while the price of softwood pulp will fluctuate between the futures market and the weak spot fundamentals. The market lacks a one - sided driving force, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate following the overall atmosphere of commodities and macro - news [97][98]. - In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to short on rebounds or stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for inter - period trading, and observe for inter - variety trading [100]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of January 15, 2026, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 543,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,000 tons or 3.4%. The inventory at Qingdao Port was 1.362 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons or 1.5%. The inventory at Gaolan Port was 20,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,000 tons or 51.2%. The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2.014 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons or 0.3% [5][6]. - In December 2025, China's pulp imports were 3.113 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The cumulative annual imports were 36.038 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.9% [6]. - On January 15, 2026, the environmental impact report of Jiulong Paper's quality improvement and efficiency enhancement technical renovation project was approved. The total investment of the project is 4 billion yuan, and the total pulp and paper production capacity will reach 9.1 million tons per year [7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On January 16, 2026, the basis of Silver Star pulp was 88 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 76.00%; the basis of Russian Needle pulp was - 112 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25.33%; the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 200 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [13]. - On January 16, 2026, the 03 - 05 month spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.88%; the 05 - 07 month spread was - 22 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.33% [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp continued to narrow this week. On January 16, 2026, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11.76%; the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15.38% [23][25]. - The import profit of pulp decreased. In January, the announced FOB prices of softwood pulp increased by $10/ton, and those of hardwood pulp increased by $20/ton, while the FOB price of unbleached pulp remained flat. Downstream paper mills are cautiously waiting and seeing, and the trading situation in the pulp market is unclear [29]. - The price of the main pulp futures contract fluctuated downward. The spot price of imported softwood pulp adjusted weakly following the market. The import cost of hardwood pulp remained high, but the trading rhythm in the market slowed down, and the high - price goods had few actual transactions [31][33]. 3.3.2 Supply - The purchase price of wood chips by paper enterprises in East China remained stable this week [40]. - The price of domestic chemimechanical pulp decreased this week, while the supply of domestic pulp remained stable [44]. - In November 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe and the global pulp shipping volume continued to decline [48]. - In November 2025, the shipping volume of W20 softwood pulp was at a low level with high inventory; the inventory of hardwood pulp was at a high level, the shipping volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [52]. - In October 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China increased significantly month - on - month. In November, the export volume of Finnish softwood pulp to China decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. In December, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month [58]. - In November 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile to China decreased month - on - month. In December, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp to China increased significantly month - on - month, and the export volumes of Chile and Uruguay to China also increased [62]. - In November 2025, China's pulp imports increased, with softwood pulp increasing by 4.93% month - on - month and hardwood pulp increasing by 33.85% month - on - month [64]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic offset paper market was in a weak consolidation state. The supply was abundant, but the demand was weak, and the price was difficult to transmit downstream [68]. - The domestic coated paper market was sluggish. The supply was sufficient, but the downstream demand was weak, and the middle - men traders were cautious and focused on destocking [72]. - The price of white cardboard was stable this week. The cost provided bottom - support, but the demand weakened, and the traders' enthusiasm decreased [76]. - The price of household paper was stable this week. The terminal demand was weak, and the industry's operating rate decreased slightly [80]. - In November 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, catering, and Chinese and Western medicines increased significantly month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month [84]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On January 16, 2026, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 149,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.16%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.41% [87]. - The port inventory was at the median level since 2025, and the inventory of mainstream ports in China continued to accumulate this week. The inventory at Qingdao Port and Changshu Port increased slightly, while the inventory at other ports decreased to varying degrees [94].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp futures market has experienced significant declines, and the market is currently in a state of multi - empty power struggle. With the support from the cost side due to firm overseas quotes, but the downstream paper price increase is weak, suppressing the purchasing willingness of downstream paper enterprises. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The main pulp futures contract SP2605 dropped significantly, with a weekly decline of 3.39% [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of January 15, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5552 yuan/ton, down 0.52% from last week, turning from an increase to a decrease; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4683 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.14 percentage points [11]. - **Accumulated Pulp Imports from January to December**: In December 2025, China imported 311.3 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1799.4 million US dollars and an average unit price of 578.03 US dollars/ton. The accumulated import volume and value from January to December increased by 4.9% and - 2.4% respectively compared to last year [15]. - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of January 15, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 195.39 million tons, down 0.56% from last week, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.63 percentage points [19]. - **Pulp Inventory in Major European Ports in November**: In November 2025, the total European port inventory decreased by 1.07% month - on - month and 2.75% compared to November 2024, indicating that the off - season of European demand may have passed and demand is gradually recovering [22]. - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Pulp Inventory**: No detailed data was provided. - **Differentiated Trends in the Operating Rates of Downstream Pulp Types**: Waste paper pulp consumption accounts for 63% of the total pulp consumption in China. As of January 15, the weekly operating load rate of double - copper paper remained flat; that of double - offset paper increased by 0.07 percentage points; that of white cardboard remained flat; and that of household paper decreased by 2.44 percentage points [28]. 3.3 Future Outlook - The offshore price of Brazilian eucalyptus hardwood pulp "Little Bird" in January was raised by 20 US dollars/ton. Chile's Arauco Company's January pulp offshore quotes showed that the coniferous pulp "Silver Star" increased by 10 US dollars/ton to 710 US dollars/ton; the natural pulp "Venus" remained flat at 620 US dollars/ton; and the hardwood pulp "Star" increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 590 US dollars/ton [32]. - With the decline in European wood pulp port inventory, it indicates that the off - season of European demand may have passed and demand is gradually recovering. The firm offshore quotes provide some support to the cost side. However, the downstream paper price increase is weak, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing the purchasing willingness of enterprises for high - priced raw materials. The market is in a state of multi - empty power struggle, and it is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and adopt a wait - and - see approach [32].

Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: January 16, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Viewpoint - The fundamentals of the pulp market have limited changes and are expected to fluctuate and adjust [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The previous settlement price of the pulp futures contract 05 was 5,508 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,436 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.31% [7] - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 4,900 - 6,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price. The quotation of Arauco's Silver Star in Shandong was 5,530 - 5,550 yuan/ton [7] - **Foreign Offers**: Arauco's January foreign offers for pulp: Silver Star (softwood pulp) increased by $10/ton to $710/ton; Venus (natural pulp) remained unchanged at $620/ton; Star (hardwood pulp) increased by $20/ton to $590/ton [8] - **Supply - Related Data**: In November, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 6.9% year - on - year, with softwood pulp down 7.6% and hardwood pulp down 7.3%. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly. In November 2025, the European wood pulp inventory was 700,000 tons, a 0.8% decrease month - on - month and a 6.3% increase year - on - year; the consumption was 805,600 tons, a 6.2% decrease month - on - month and a 4.6% decrease year - on - year. In December 2025, the total pulp imports were 3.113 million tons, a 4.1% decrease month - on - month and a 3.8% decrease year - on - year. As of January 15, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 0.56% [8] - **Demand Situation**: Large - scale cultural paper enterprises are operating normally, while some small and medium - sized production lines in the north are shut down. Downstream publishing orders for pick - up are almost finished, and social orders have limited changes. Dealers are mainly selling at stable prices with little intention to adjust prices [8] 2. Industry News - On January 15, it was reported that the 2025 China Paper Industry Top Ten News Selection Conference was held in Beijing. Gold East Paper under APP (China) was listed on the "2025 Excellent - level Smart Factory Project List" for its "Full - process Digital and Intelligent High - end Cultural Paper Smart Factory" and ranked first in the 2025 China Paper Industry Top Ten News, setting a benchmark for the industry [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, copperplate paper and offset paper prices and price differences, white cardboard and whiteboard paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][23][25][27]

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 行业资讯 行业资讯 1 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：中纸网，隆众资讯 1.【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年1月8日，中国纸浆常熟港库存52.5万吨，较上周期下降2.3万吨，环比下降4.2%。本周常熟港库存呈现去库走势。 2.【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年1月8日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存134.2万吨，较上周上涨0.3万吨，环比上涨0.2%。本周期青岛港库存周期内呈 现累库的走势。 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年1月8日，中 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core观点 - The pulp market has limited fundamental changes. After the December delivery, the market focuses on the new warehouse receipt pricing and is mainly in a state of shock adjustment [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures contract 05 was 5,478 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,500 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.40%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,800 - 6,300 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable compared with the closing price of the previous working day. Among them, the offer price of Arauco's Silver Star in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco's December pulp export quotes: Silver Star softwood pulp increased by $20/ton to $700/ton; Venus natural pulp remained flat at $620/ton; Star hardwood pulp increased by $20/ton to $570/ton [8] - According to PPPC, in October, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, softwood pulp by 7.1% year - on - year, and hardwood pulp by 1.9% year - on - year. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly [8] - According to UTIPULP data, in November 2025, the European wood pulp inventory was 700,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 6.3%; the European wood pulp consumption was 805,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. In November 2025, the total pulp import volume was 3.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. As of December 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 1.73% month - on - month [8] - The cultural paper market is mainly driven by rigid demand. Publishing orders continue to be picked up. The inventory of some paper mills has decreased compared with the previous period, and the price has not changed much [8] 3.2 Industry News - On December 17, it was reported that the household tissue consumption characteristic park in Linyi County, Shanxi Province, has achieved a leap - forward improvement from spontaneous agglomeration to cluster development in recent years. The park currently has an annual production capacity of 400,000 tons of high - grade household tissue and 50,000 tons of flushable and degradable non - woven fabrics. The degradable non - woven fabric project fills the technological gap in the province, achieving a virtuous cycle of guaranteed upstream raw material supply and supported downstream market expansion [9] 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including import bleached softwood pulp spot price in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp spot - futures price difference (Shandong Silver Star), softwood - hardwood price difference in Shandong, inter - delivery spread (SP1 - 5, SP5 - 9), warehouse receipt total, domestic main port area pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, coated paper and offset paper price and price difference, white cardboard and white board paper price and price difference, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate. The data sources are mainly Wind and Zhuochuang Information [15][17][19][24][25][29]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年12月11日，中国纸浆常熟港库存53.2万吨，较上周期下降3.4万吨，环比下降6.0%。本周常熟港库存呈现去库走势。 2.【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年12月11日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存136.2万吨，较上周下降3.3万吨，环比下降2.4%。本周期青岛港库存周期内 呈现去库的走势。 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年12月11日，中国纸浆高栏港库存5.4万吨，较上周上涨0.9万吨，环比上涨20.0%。本周期高栏港库存呈现累库的 ...