1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector** - **Sugar**: International sugar supply surplus has improved, and domestic sugar market fundamentals are also improving. Zhengzhou sugar may rise in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously after the main contract stabilizes on a pullback [3]. - **Pulp**: The cost support of pulp mills is emerging, but the improvement in fundamentals is limited, and the upward space of pulp may be restricted. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the range [4]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The spot market is stable, but the demand improvement in the peak season is limited. It is recommended to operate in the range with a short - bias [6]. - **Cotton**: The medium - term support of the cotton market remains unchanged, and the short - term futures price is expected to return to a relatively strong shock. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [7]. - **Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector** - **Apple**: There is limited new driving force, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate in the high - level range. It is recommended to return to a wait - and - see state [8]. - **Jujube**: The futures price shows characteristics of having a ceiling and a floor. It is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points in the 2605 contract, and for long - position holders, it is recommended to buy protective put options at the same time. Cautious investors can hold the reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Futures** - **Apple 2605**: Return to wait - and - see. The supply side provides support, but the consumption support is insufficient, and the futures price continues to fluctuate in the high - level range. The support interval is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure interval is 11000 - 11500 [18]. - **Jujube 2605**: Short - term buying on dips. The expected production reduction may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory begins to peak and decline. The support interval is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure interval is 9500 - 9800 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - **Sugar 2605**: Go long after stabilization. The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved, and the supply and demand fundamentals in China are improving, but the supply is still sufficient. The support interval is 5250 - 5300, and the pressure interval is 5600 - 5650 [18]. - **Pulp 2605**: Short on rallies. The rise in the outer - disk price of broad - leaf pulp drives the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs to be verified, and the improvement in the supply and demand of bleached softwood pulp is limited. The support interval is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure interval is 5350 - 5400 [18]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Operate in the range. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support situation after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. The support interval is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure interval is 4250 - 4300 [18]. - **Cotton 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The significant increase in imported cotton and cotton yarn exerts short - term pressure, but the outer - disk stabilizes and rebounds, and the medium - term upward expectation of the futures price remains unchanged. The support interval is 14900 - 15000, and the pressure interval is 16300 - 16500 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In January 2026, the export volume of fresh apples was about 99,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.14% and a year - on - year increase of 9.44%. In February, it was about 79,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.83% and a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. As of March 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 4.4179 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 266,400 tons. As of March 26, it was 3.8947 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 294,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 217,900 tons [19]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In the Shandong production area, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in stock is stable, and the transaction in cold storage is average. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage packaging volume is acceptable for the Tomb - sweeping Festival. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, the overall sales speed is average, and the mainstream price is stable [19][20][21]. - **Jujube Market**: As of March 5, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 7.39%. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is stable [22]. - **Sugar Market**: In the first half of March, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 29.67% year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio decreased by 25.27 percentage points year - on - year, and the sugar production decreased by 88.60% year - on - year. In India, the sugar - making work in the 2025/26 crushing season is coming to an end. In Thailand, as of March 25, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume increased by 8.81% year - on - year, and the sugar production increased by 12.01% year - on - year. As of March 25, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased by 6 week - on - week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 219,700 tons. India announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for April 2026 was 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of March 24, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 95,804 contracts [24]. - **Pulp Market**: After the Spring Festival, the price of South American BHK pulp increased by $10 per ton in February, and the seller announced another price increase of $20 per ton in March, which led to cautious waiting and seeing from buyers. The domestic market transaction is weak, many factories shut down, and the port inventory increases by 205,000 tons [26]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: Last Thursday, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with the previous Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points week - on - week. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed decreased. This week, the operating load rate of double - offset paper was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points week - on - week, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points week - on - week [27]. - **Cotton Market**: As of March 28, the net export contract of Egyptian cotton in two weeks was 1,544 tons, and the signing volume of India and Pakistan increased, while China cancelled some contracts. As of March 30, 2026, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 47,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.04% [28]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing prices of apple 2605, jujube 2605, sugar 2605, pulp 2605, and cotton 2605 were 9826, 8750, 5398, 5124, and 15295 respectively, with daily declines of 37, 25, 43, 58, and 90 respectively, and daily decline rates of 0.38%, 0.28%, 0.79%, 1.12%, and 0.58% respectively [29]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot prices of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton were 4.45 yuan per catty, 9.40 yuan per kilogram, 5420 yuan per ton, 5180 yuan (Shandong Yinxing), 4350 yuan (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin), and 16850 yuan per ton respectively. The环比 changes were 0, - 0.10, - 40, 0, 0, and 27 respectively, and the year - on - year changes were 0.45, - 5.30, - 750, - 1300, - 800, and 1969 respectively [34]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple**: The 5 - 10 spread is 1083, with a week - on - week decrease of 17 and a year - on - year increase of 954. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [54]. - **Jujube**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 360, with a week - on - week increase of 25 and a year - on - year increase of 5. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. - **Sugar**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 33, with a week - on - week decrease of 7 and a year - on - year decrease of 139. It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. - **Cotton**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 135, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 5. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [54]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt quantities of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are 0, 4269, 16862, 189631, and 12420 respectively. The环比 changes are 0, - 4, 0, 1468, and - 15 respectively, and the year - on - year changes are 0, - 2796, - 10548, - 185592, and 3170 respectively [88]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary is provided in the given text, only relevant figures are mentioned.

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][8] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. In China, due to increased consumption and potential production cuts, the medium - long - term cotton price center may rise, but short - term upside is limited by internal - external price differences and policy factors [2][3] - Sugar: Internationally, the raw sugar remains strong, and the Brazilian sugar - making ratio may decline. Domestically, there is an oversupply with high industrial inventory, and the upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is weak, but it has strong support due to the Middle East situation [5][7] - Pulp: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, but domestic demand is insufficient, and port inventory remains high. The pulp price is likely to consolidate at a low level in the short term [8] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 15,295 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton (-0.58%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,691 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,850 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton. The USDA's 2026/27 crop planting intention report shows that the expected cotton planting area in the US is 9.64 million acres, up 3.9% year - on - year [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,398 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-0.79%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,420 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,295 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The consulting firm Safras&Mercado predicts that Brazil's sugar export volume in the 2026/27 season may decrease by 14.2% to 29 million tons, and production will drop to 40.3 million tons, while ethanol production will increase by 10.7% to 42.58 billion liters [4] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,124 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton (-1.12%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,155 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,790 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. In February 2026, the total European port inventory increased by 15.34% month - on - month and 2.99% year - on - year [7] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - International: The Middle East conflict causes oil price fluctuations, and the macro - level impact on cotton prices needs attention. The global supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton production increased significantly, but consumption also increased. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season is expected to be good, and inventory may be tight at the end of the year. There is a production cut expectation for new crops [2] Sugar - International: The raw sugar is strong, and the Brazilian sugar - making ratio may decline due to geopolitical conflicts. Domestic: The sugarcane harvest is delayed, production increases more than expected, and the industry is in a inventory - building stage with high industrial inventory and increased imports [5] Pulp - Supply: Overseas new production capacity is limited in the past two years, and major overseas broadleaf pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. If European and American consumption improves, the pressure on China's imports may be relieved. Demand: Although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity in China, terminal demand is insufficient, and port inventory remains high. In 2026, the demand for pulp is expected to improve [8] Group 5: Strategies - Cotton: Adopt a neutral strategy. Pay attention to new - year target price policies, planting area reduction, and potential reserve - releasing policies [3] - Sugar: Adopt a neutral strategy. Consider the sugar price as oscillating in the short term due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [7] - Pulp: Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp price is likely to consolidate at a low level in the short term due to high inventory [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report Core View - There is no clear core view presented in the provided content. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs SP Main Contract Closing Price - On March 31, 2026, the SP main contract closing price was 5124.00, with a 1.11926% decline from the previous day. The exchange - rate - converted US dollar price was 647.44, and the Shandong Yinxing basis was 31, while the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 41 [3]. Import Profits - For Canadian pulp, the import profit of Golden Lion was 139.53, while that of Lion was - 580.06. For Chilean pulp, the import profit of Yinxing was - 224.64, calculated with a 13% VAT and an exchange rate of 6.91 on the previous day [4]. Pulp Price Averages - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The Shandong regional average prices also remained stable [4]. Paper Indexes and Profit Margins - From March 26 to March 31, 2026, the cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper) indexes, packaging paper (white card) index, and living paper index remained unchanged. The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white card, and living paper changed by 0.1198, 0.1166, 0.0822, and - 0.0544 respectively [4]. Pulp Price Spreads - On March 31, 2026, the softwood - hardwood price spread was 530.00, the softwood - natural price spread was - 245, the softwood - chemimechanical price spread was 1345, and the softwood - waste paper price spread was 3579 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention overall industry - wide investment ratings. However, it provides trend strength for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, LLDPE, PP, LPG, and propylene have a trend strength of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook; while most other commodities such as rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, etc., have a trend strength of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook; and PX, PTA, and MEG have a trend strength of - 1, showing a relatively negative short - term outlook [11][13][16]. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes various energy and chemical commodities, highlighting the impact of factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and cost changes on commodity prices. Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, are a major factor affecting the market, causing supply disruptions and price fluctuations. For example, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz affects the supply of raw materials such as naphtha and crude oil, which in turn impacts downstream products [22][58]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations. Some commodities face supply contractions, such as PX and MEG in April, while others have stable or increasing supply, like PVC. Demand also varies, with some downstream industries showing weak demand, such as the textile and paper industries, while others have relatively stable or growing demand [4][8][33]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a short - term oscillating market, there is a contradiction between high raw material costs and weak downstream demand. Although the inventory is sufficient, supply may decrease in April. It is recommended to go long on SC and short on PX, and go long on BZ and short on PX [4][11]. - **PTA**: Also in a short - term oscillating market, with sufficient supply in the short term but expected supply contraction in April. It is advisable not to chase high prices but to buy on dips and maintain a positive spread operation when the 5 - 9 spread is below 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **MEG**: In a short - term high - level oscillating market. Supply is expected to decrease in April, with a reduction in imports from the Middle East and an increase in exports. The port inventory is expected to decline faster, and the 5 - 9 spread should be in a positive spread operation [12]. Rubber - In a wide - range oscillating market. As of March 29, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased slightly. Some tire enterprises plan to have short - term maintenance, and the upward space of the natural rubber market is limited due to factors such as the high level of overseas raw material prices and the weakening boost of synthetic rubber [13][14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - In an intraday wide - range oscillating market. The inventory of butadiene decreased this week, and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased. The basic situation provides support for prices, but geopolitical conflicts may increase price volatility [16][17][18]. LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Supply contraction continues, and there is a structural differentiation. The cost of PE increases due to geopolitical factors, and the supply of standard products is expected to decline in April [20][22]. - **PP**: In April, the number of cracking and PDH maintenance increases, providing strong supply support. The cost of C3 is supported, and the demand improves after the resumption of work by downstream enterprises [21][22]. Caustic Soda - At a low valuation level. Although there is short - term pressure such as delivery and high inventory, the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve in the long - term, and the market is expected to be strong. It is necessary to track overseas device dynamics and Chinese export signing situations [26][28]. Pulp - In an oscillating operation. The demand is weak, the market trading of softwood pulp is light, and the price of hardwood pulp is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory reduction at ports and the change in downstream replenishment willingness [30][33]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The downstream orders are weak, and the processing plants purchase on demand. The trading is slightly slow [35][36]. Methanol - In a high - level oscillating market. The spot price is adjusted differently, and the port inventory continues to decline. Due to geopolitical conflicts, the price is expected to be strong, and the upper limit of valuation is affected by geopolitical factors [38][41][42]. Urea - In a short - term oscillating operation. The domestic basic situation is neutral to strong, and the price is expected to be range - bound. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of macro - information on the market sentiment [44][45][46]. Styrene - In a relatively strong oscillating market. The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease in April and May, and the export of styrene increases. The market is expected to continue to reduce inventory and follow the price increase [47][48]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The production of soda ash enterprises is stable, the downstream demand is tepid, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly adjusted [53][55]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks still exist, and supply disruptions occur frequently. Saudi Aramco's CP price in April increased. There are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [58][64][65]. - **Propylene**: The basic situation provides support, and the trend is still relatively strong. The price of propylene has certain fluctuations, and the operating rates of related industries have changed [59][63]. PVC - In a wide - range oscillating market. In the short - term, high inventory needs time to digest, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced PVC. In the long - term, geopolitical factors and cost increases will support the market [67]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price decreased, and it maintains a high level in the short - term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market rebounds [70]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - The spot loading is under pressure. The 04 contract oscillates and consolidates, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors. The supply of shipping capacity has certain changes, and the demand and freight rates are affected by multiple factors [72][80][82]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: In a high - level oscillating market. The futures price decreased, the factory's spot price was stable, and the sales rate was low [85][86]. - **Bottle Chip**: In a high - level oscillating market. The upstream raw materials fluctuated and decreased, the factory's quotation was mostly reduced, and the market trading atmosphere rebounded slightly [85][86]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The price in the Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, the paper mills are producing normally, the dealers' enthusiasm for picking up goods is not high, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists [88][89][91]. Pure Benzene - In a relatively strong oscillating market. The port inventory decreased, the price in the Shandong market increased, and the market price fluctuated due to macro - news and production reduction expectations [93][94][95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Iran - US conflict, crude oil prices are likely to fall. Geopolitical conflicts mainly cause short - term emotional premiums on oil prices, and the risk premium usually fades within a few weeks to 2 - 3 months. If the current conflict subsides quickly, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel [3][4]. - When crude oil prices fall, the crude oil chemical sector and futures will show a downward trend, with structural differentiation. Direct oil - chemical varieties will decline in sync with crude oil, while coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties have stronger resistance to decline, and downstream processing links will see improved profitability [5][6]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that there will be further adjustments in the early trading session tomorrow, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting at high and buying at low for the time being. Gold is expected to continue with a slightly bullish and volatile trend. Iron ore is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and the right - side signal is yet to come. Glass should be treated as wide - range oscillation before the upper pressure is broken. Methanol is in a high - level oscillation. Pulp futures are in an interval oscillation [7][11][12][16][18][20]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog I. After the Iran - US conflict, crude oil prices are likely to fall - Geopolitical conflicts on oil prices are mostly short - term emotional premiums rather than long - term trends. After most Middle - East geopolitical events, the crude oil risk premium will quickly be reversed within a few weeks to 2 - 3 months and return to the pricing based on supply - demand fundamentals [4]. - If the current conflict subsides quickly and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel, and the geopolitical premium will fade. Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is currently low [4]. II. The trends of the crude oil chemical sector and futures when crude oil prices fall - The crude oil chemical futures as a whole will follow the decline of crude oil but show structural differentiation. Direct oil - chemical varieties such as naphtha cracking, pure benzene, ethylene glycol, PTA, PP/PE will see weakened cost support and their prices will fall in sync with crude oil. The larger the previous increase, the more obvious the decline [5]. - Coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties such as coal - based olefins and methanol have relatively independent costs, stronger resistance to decline, and a smaller decline compared with pure oil - chemical varieties. Downstream processing links such as plastic and rubber products will see relieved cost pressure, improved marginal profitability, and smoother price transmission [6]. III. Key influencing factors and rhythm - The speed of premium fading: The faster the conflict subsides, the steeper the decline of crude oil and chemical futures, and the main decline is usually completed within 1 - 4 weeks [6]. - Inventory and positions: The concentrated closing of previous profit - taking positions will amplify short - term fluctuations, and the market will gradually return to the supply - demand logic after the decline [6]. - Macroeconomics and supply - demand: If the global crude oil inventory rises, OPEC+ increases production, or strategic reserves are released, it will accelerate the decline of oil prices. If the demand side remains stable, the decline will be more moderate [6]. Technical Analysis - Stock index futures: It is expected that there will be further adjustments in the early trading session tomorrow, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting at high and buying at low for the time being. The Shanghai Composite Index is still within the 15 - minute oscillation range [7][8]. - Gold: Gold has stabilized in the daily - level oscillation. After a higher opening, it showed an oscillating trend throughout the day. It should be treated with a slightly bullish and volatile mindset in the future [11]. - Iron ore: Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long - term, it is in the period of mine production capacity release, and the expectation of loose supply still exists. The resumption of production of steel mills after the festival may have a certain driving effect, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Attention should be paid to the influence of policy and sentiment. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and the right - side signal is yet to come [12][13]. - Glass: The daily melting volume has declined slightly, and the inventory has been slightly reduced. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, it should be treated as wide - range oscillation before the upper pressure is broken [16][17]. - Methanol: Iran is China's largest source of methanol imports, accounting for over 70%. The obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the expected maintenance of Iranian facilities have led to a sharp increase in the expectation of import supply contraction, which is the core driver of this round of price increase. However, if the price remains high for a long time, terminal demand will be suppressed, forming a negative feedback. It should be treated as high - level oscillation [18]. - Pulp: The trading sentiment in the spot market is average. Domestic pulp enterprises' production is within the normal range, and the pulp output will not change much. The inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate, and the pressure remains. The previously shut - down facilities of downstream paper mills are gradually resuming production, and the overall pulp consumption continues to rise. The futures market has shown an interval oscillation recently [20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The upstream pulp prices are expected to outperform downstream paper prices, indicating a potential cost advantage for leading paper companies with self-sufficient pulp production [3][8] - The current market conditions show that paper prices are at historical lows, while pulp prices have maintained a stronger position, leading to a divergence in profitability between companies with self-produced pulp and those relying on external sources [8] - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts may further strengthen the trend of upstream pulp prices outperforming downstream paper prices due to supply chain vulnerabilities [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Upstream vs. Downstream Performance - Upstream pulp prices are anticipated to perform better than downstream paper prices, with a focus on companies that have invested in self-sufficient pulp production [3][8] - The current pricing dynamics show that paper prices are below the 5th percentile of historical data, while pulp prices are around the 30-40th percentile, indicating a significant cost pressure on paper companies relying on external pulp [8] Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Sun Paper (002078), Xianhe Co. (603733), Wuzhou Special Paper (605007), and Nine Dragons Paper (02689) are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their upstream pulp production capabilities [3] Market Trends - The paper market is experiencing a seasonal low, with cultural paper prices not showing the expected seasonal increase, while pulp prices continue to rise [8] - The waste paper segment has seen a slight price increase post-holiday due to low inventory levels, but the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating form [1] - Natural rubber: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating form [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides an analysis of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and gives corresponding investment suggestions based on the market conditions of each commodity [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined, and the Wenhua Commodity Index dropped significantly. Spot basis remained stable, but spot trading demand was weak. As of March 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 523.02 million tons, a decrease of 24.68 million tons from the end of February, and 5.31 million tons higher than the same period last year. The domestic peak season showed good performance, and the inventory of cotton yarn and grey cloth was well - digested. The short - term pure cotton yarn sales slowed down. Mid - term, Zhengzhou cotton maintains a bullish strategy [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. The market focuses on Brazil's sugar production forecast. After the rainy season, the rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil is low, and the sugar - making ratio in the new season is expected to decline, so the sugar production in the 26/27 season will decrease. In China, the production progress in Guangxi this year is slow, and the production is lower than the same period last year. However, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season. The sugar sales of sugar mills this year are poor. In general, the domestic supply - demand is relatively loose in the 25/26 season, and the sugar price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants in the northwest producing areas decreased, and the trading volume in Shandong was small. As of March 26, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 3.8947 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease. The trading logic is mainly on the demand side. The demand in the northwest producing areas is good, but the apples in Shandong have poor quality and high purchase prices, which may affect the de - stocking speed. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber WR, and butadiene rubber BR all declined, and the domestic spot prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber also decreased. The global natural rubber supply is entering the production - increasing period. The domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate continued to decline rapidly. The domestic tire operating rate increased slightly, and the production and transportation cost pressure of domestic tire enterprises increased. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased to 69.14 million tons. It is recommended to wait and see and grasp the cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - The pulp futures rebounded but then declined. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a high level. As of March 26, 2026, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 2.395 million tons, a 980,000 - ton increase from the previous period, a 4.3% month - on - month increase. The overseas quotation of pulp is strong, and the long - term cost has certain support. The domestic pulp demand is generally average, and the procurement of high - price broad - leaf pulp is cautious. The short - term pulp may maintain a low - level range - bound [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. The overseas quotation increased significantly, and the domestic spot price was relatively weak. The downstream demand increased, and the port outbound volume increased. As of March 27, the national port log total inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a 19.72% year - on - year decrease. The low inventory supports the price to a certain extent. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures market showed a narrow - range consolidation, with limited changes in the main contract. The spot market quotes remained stable. There is a lack of clear news guidance, and market participants are mostly on the sidelines. The downstream demand is also weak, with a "buy - as - you - use" pattern continuing. The core contradiction between high - level port inventory and cautious paper mill purchases persists [4]. - The price of the household paper market is mainly stable, with general trading enthusiasm and cautious market sentiment. The cost support of raw material pulp is not strong, and the terminal demand improvement is difficult. The inventory reduction process of some paper enterprises has slowed down. Attention should be paid to changes in raw material pulp prices and the release rhythm of demand - side orders [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content a. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily - session closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,182 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day; the night - session closing price was 5,162 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The trading volume was 204,927 lots, a decrease of 79,731 lots; the open interest was 139,000 lots, a decrease of 14,678 lots. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 2,601 tons to 188,163 tons. The net position of the top 20 members increased by 259 lots to - 20,663 lots [3]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of "Silver Star - Futures Main Contract" increased by 20 to 18; the basis of "Goldfish - Futures Main Contract (Non - standard)" increased by 20 to - 582. The monthly spread of SP05 - SP07 increased by 8 to - 34 [3]. - **Spot Market**: Among coniferous pulps, the domestic prices of Northwood and Cariboo were 5,450 yuan/ton, the price of Moon was 5,150 yuan/ton, and the price of Silver Star was 5,200 yuan/ton, with an international price of 710 US dollars/ton. Among broad - leaf pulps, the prices of Golden Island and Star were 4,600 yuan/ton, and the price of Star had an international price of 620 US dollars/ton. The price of chemical mechanical pulp (Kunhe) was 3,800 yuan/ton, and the price of natural color pulp (Venus) was 4,800 yuan/ton, with an international price of 620 US dollars/ton [3]. b. Industry News - The pulp futures market had a narrow - range consolidation, with limited changes in the main contract. The spot market quotes remained stable. The lack of clear news led to a wait - and - see attitude among market participants. The downstream demand market was also weak, and the real - order transactions were mainly sporadic and for immediate needs. The key contradiction between high - level port inventory and cautious paper mill purchases continued. Attention should be paid to the settlement of overseas markets and changes in downstream restocking willingness [4]. - The household paper market price was stable, with general trading enthusiasm and cautious market sentiment. The cost support from the raw material pulp market was weak, and the terminal demand was difficult to improve significantly. Some paper enterprises faced inventory pressure, and the inventory reduction process slowed down. Attention should be paid to changes in raw material pulp prices and the release rhythm of demand - side orders [5]. c. Trend Intensity The pulp trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) on a scale of integer values [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures market maintains a weak fundamental pattern, with limited upside potential in the short - term due to recent position - reduction. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On March 30, 2026, SP2701 was 5528 yuan/ton, down 0.14% day - on - day and up 0.25% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5264 yuan/ton, down 0.30% day - on - day and week - on - week; SP2605 was 5182 yuan/ton, down 0.38% day - on - day and 0.12% week - on - week [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On March 30, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5200 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5050 yuan/ton, unchanged; broadleaf pulp was 4600 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In March 2026, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 4.23% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 620 dollars/ton, up 3.33% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559 yuan/ton, down 4.19% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 5073 yuan/ton, up 3.30% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. Supply - side Data - **Import Volume**: In February 2026, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 58.02 tons, down 30.86% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 147.13 tons, down 2.94% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp in March 2026 (as of March 26) was 26.2 tons; chemical mechanical pulp was 25.3 tons [5]. - **Supply Information**: In March, Chile's Arauco Company adjusted its wood pulp quotes, with coniferous pulp at 680 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 620 dollars/ton (75% supply), and natural pulp Venus at 620 dollars/ton [5]. Demand - side Data - **Finished Paper Production**: In March 2026 (as of March 26), the production of offset paper was 21.60 tons, coated paper was 8.20 tons, tissue paper was 31.21 tons, and white cardboard was 38.50 tons. The demand for pulp has been stable recently, with stable finished paper prices and increased production this week. Price increase letters issued by paper mills are expected to be difficult to implement [5]. Inventory - side Data - **Port Inventory**: As of March 26, 2026, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 239.5 tons, an increase of 9.8 tons from the previous period, a 4.3% increase. The pulp inventory at the main ports has shown a trend of accumulation, turning from two consecutive weeks of de - stocking to stocking [5]. - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of March 26, 2026, the inventory in the futures delivery warehouse was 18.6 tons [5].