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农产品周报:关税战再次升级,板块跟随宏观波动-20251012
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-12 09:56
农产品周报 | 2025-10-12 关税战再次升级,板块跟随宏观波动 国内方面, 受9月下旬及国庆假期期间降温降雨影响,棉花采摘较预期有所推迟,采摘进度已近1/4,但前期籽棉 水分偏高,轧花厂严控超水籽棉。棉农基本顺价交售,随着近期籽棉水分降低,机采棉收购价涨至6.1-6.2元/公斤 左右。 市场分析 宏观方面,中美贸易战在2025年10月再度升级,双方采取强硬措施互相施压:美国威胁自11月1日起对中国商品加 征100%额外关税,中国则实施稀土出口管制、对美船舶征收特别港务费等措施。国际方面,美国联邦政府已停摆 超一周,受此影响本周美棉生长周报、出口装运以及USDA月报等数据均暂停发布。由于此前USDA对于中国等增 产国家的产量调整或尚未到位,新年度全球棉市供需格局预计仍将趋于宽松。叠加当前北半球新棉集中上市,阶 段性供应压力增加,而美棉出口签约表现不佳,需求端压力仍存。中长期需关注美棉减产预期的落地情况以及美 棉出口目标的实现情况。国内方面,棉花去库速度持续偏快,商业库存降至同期低位。不过节前籽棉已经陆续开 秤,轧花厂收购心态较为谨慎,前期抢收预期落空,籽棉收购价在6.0-6.2元/公斤左右,整体套保压力 ...
能源化工纸浆周度报告-20251012
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-12 06:27
CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0002332 日期:2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年10月9日,中国纸浆高栏港库存5.4万吨,较上周上涨1.3万吨,环比上涨31.7%。本周期高栏港库存呈现累库的趋势。 4.【中国纸浆主流港口样本库存周数据统计】截至2025年10月9日,中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量:207.7万吨,较上期累库4.4万吨,环比上涨2.2%,库存量在本 周期呈现累库的走势。本周期纸浆国内主流港口青岛港库存数量呈现去库走势,节日期间因天气原因,港口卸货速度减缓,导致去库;港外库存数量较港内多,港 内出货速度亦有所减缓。本周期常熟港库存呈现累库的趋势 ...
乌拉圭9月商品出口同比增长5%
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-10-11 16:23
乌拉圭《观察家报》2025年10月1日报道,乌拉圭9月商品出口额12.42亿美元,同比增长5%。牛肉是最大出口产 品,出口额2.3亿美元,同比增长42%;大豆位居第二,出口额2亿美元,增长22%;纸浆排第三,出口额1.95亿美元, 同比下降26%。中国继续保持最大出口市场地位,9月对华出口3.8亿美元,同比增长17%,占总出口的31%,其中大豆 出口1.73亿美元,同比增长53%。巴西是第二大出口目的地,出口额1.6亿美元,同比下降10%。2025年1至9月累计商 品出口(包括自贸区)总额达102.45亿美元,同比增长5%。 (原标题:乌拉圭9月商品出口同比增长5%) ...
国投期货软商品日报-20251010
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 13:50
| 《八 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月10日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ★☆★ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨,期货冲高回落,新棉预售价格低于现货,国庆期间新疆将棉收购价先跌后涨,前期新花水 分较大、导致部分收购价格较低,国庆节期间正常水分收购价多在6-6.2元/公斤区间,较高收购价在6.2-6.3 元/公斤左右。纯棉纱价格稳中偏弱,走货气氛一般,旺季延续不旺的表现。9月份中旬以来,郑棉连续下跌, 对于籽棉收购价格形成负反馈, ...
日度策略参考-20251010
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 06:32
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current economic operation is generally weak, and subsequent incremental policies may be further introduced. The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through a key level, and the upside space may be further opened. It is advisable to go long on stock index futures when the opportunity arises [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside space [1]. - Due to the US government shutdown, political risks in France and Japan rising, and the US ADP data falling short of expectations, which boosts the expectation of interest - rate cuts, the price of gold is expected to continue to be strong [1]. - The soft squeeze on foreign - market silver has driven the domestic silver price to be strong, but short - term risks of profit - taking at high levels need to be watched out for [1]. - The US ADP non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations has boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts this year. The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has exacerbated concerns about the tight global copper supply, and the copper price will continue to be strong [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, combined with the limited supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum, will keep the price strong in the short term [1]. - The production and inventory of alumina continue to increase, and the weak fundamentals are pressuring the spot price. However, the alumina price is approaching the cost line, and the downside space is expected to be limited [1]. - Global political risks have risen due to events such as the US government shutdown, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced. The non - ferrous sector is strong. The continuous decline of LME zinc inventory is expected to support the domestic zinc price, but the domestic social inventory has increased after the holiday, and high - level selling hedging opportunities can be considered [1]. - The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, boosting non - ferrous metals. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the quota approval situation in 2026 should be monitored in the fourth quarter. Nickel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but high inventory may limit the upside space. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term nickel surplus [1]. - The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to operate on a short - term basis and wait for high - level selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Due to macro - level positives and the impact of Indonesia's ore export ban, the shortage of tin ore supply has intensified, and the tin price is expected to continue to strengthen [1]. - For industrial silicon, it is in the wet season in the southwest and continuous resumption of production in the northwest, and there is an expectation of production cuts in polysilicon, so it is bearish [1]. - For polysilicon, there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, an increase in silicon wafer production scheduling, and the long - term anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and market sentiment has subsided, so it will fluctuate [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and supply - side production scheduling has increased [1]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, they ended the long holiday stably, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the valuation is low, so they will fluctuate [1]. - For iron ore, the anti - involution logic is subject to tidal trading. The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, supply is recovering while demand may weaken, and inventory is high [1]. - For glass, the anti - involution logic is tidal, the pressure of supply surplus still exists, and the price is under pressure despite the marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - For soda ash, it follows glass, with a weak reality and large supply - surplus pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - For coking coal, the 05 contract failed to reach a new high before the holiday. Although the spot is strong, the expectation has weakened. The spot and futures prices are still in the process of bottom - searching, but considering that many short - sellers rushed to sell before the holiday, it is not appropriate to continue to short, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - For palm oil, Indonesia plans to implement B50 in the second half of 2026, which may have a bearish impact on near - month contracts, but there is still support for far - month contracts after 05. The MPOB September report is expected to show production cuts and inventory reduction, which will support the price [1]. - For soybean oil, China's restriction on rare - earth exports is a bargaining chip in Sino - US negotiations. COFCO Yihai exporting 10,000 tons of soybean oil each in December will accelerate the inventory reduction of soybean oil. The expected reduction of US soybean ending inventory has led to poor crushing margins, and the subsequent reduction in raw materials and oil - mill crushing will support the soybean - oil price [1]. - For rapeseed products, the ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the double festivals, supporting international rapeseed products prices, but there is no new driving force. It may be driven up by soybean and palm oil, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - For cotton, in the short term, the domestic cotton price will probably fluctuate widely within a range. In the long term, the market may face pressure as new cotton comes onto the market [1]. - For raw sugar, the high proportion of sugar production may be reduced, and the raw - sugar price has started to rebound from the bottom, but the upside space is relatively limited due to oversupply. In the domestic market, the large - scale import has led to the full operation of sugar - processing plants, and there is still pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the overall rebound space is limited, and the strategy of shorting at high levels should be maintained [1]. - For corn, without obvious policy and weather changes, under the expectation of selling pressure for the new - season corn and the decline in planting costs, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. The grain - storage rhythm of traders and policy changes should be monitored [1]. - For soybean meal, the domestic soybean - buying and crushing margins are poor, and the domestic market has no obvious premium due to the trade war. The valuation is low. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American weather. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the opportunity arises [1]. - For pulp, the current trading logic is about the trading of old needle - wood pulp warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the pressure on the futures market is high. It is advisable to conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - For log futures, the fundamentals of logs are strong, the foreign - market quotation has risen, and the spot price has increased, so the log futures will be strong [1]. - For live pigs, the pig slaughter continues to increase, the weight has not decreased significantly, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The overall outlook is bearish [1]. - For crude oil, OPEC+ continues to increase production, the geopolitical situation has cooled down, and demand has entered the off - season, so it will fluctuate [1]. - For fuel oil, it has the same situation as crude oil, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production, the geopolitical situation cooling down, and demand entering the off - season [1]. - For asphalt, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient [1]. - For natural rubber, there are many disturbances on the supply side, inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the RU warehouse receipts are significantly less than the same period in previous years, so it is bullish [1]. - For BR rubber, OPEC+ continues to increase production, the raw - material fundamentals are continuously loose, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, downstream transactions have become dull, and high - level production and high inventory have not been the main factors for suppression [1]. - For PTA, the crude - oil price is weak, the PX market trading is dull, the Asian naphtha cracking is running stably, the price difference between PX and MX has dropped to $132, supporting the short - process profit of PX. Domestic large - scale PTA plants are undergoing rotational maintenance, and domestic PTA production has declined [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East - China ports is still low, the port arrivals this week are still limited, the overseas ethylene - glycol import is expected to decline, and domestic plant commissioning has put continuous pressure on the ethylene - glycol price. After the holiday, as the peak season for polyester is coming to an end, polyester is expected to be weak [1]. - For short - fiber, short - fiber factory plants are gradually resuming operation. As the price falls, the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts in the market has weakened [1]. - For styrene, the international crude - oil market is weak, the US benzene price is relatively low compared to the gasoline price, the economy of STDP is obviously weak, and the US export demand is still restricted by arbitrage. New domestic styrene plants have been put into operation, but the downstream polymer industry has stagnated [1]. - For lime, the export sentiment has eased slightly, the domestic demand is insufficient, and the upside space is limited, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - For DR357, the center of the crude - oil market price has been slightly adjusted downward, the maintenance intensity has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, so the price will fluctuate strongly [1]. - For PVC, the maintenance support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the market is returning to fundamentals, and there is large supply pressure due to less maintenance compared to the previous period, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so the price will fluctuate weakly [1]. - For caustic soda, many alumina plants in Guangxi are planning to start production, there are unplanned maintenance increases in Shandong in October, the factory loads in South China and Zhejiang are difficult to increase in the short term, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts. The short - term futures price is bearish, and it is bullish in the medium term [1]. - For LPG, OPEC's production increase and high domestic crude - oil inventory are suppressing the upward momentum of LPG. The international CP and FEI prices have weakened, and the domestic fundamentals are weak, with the peak season not being prosperous [1]. - For container shipping on the European route, the price has gradually fallen to a low level, there is a possibility of a low - level rebound, it is gradually entering the contract - changing period, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, so it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock Index: The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through a key level, and the upside space may be further opened. It is advisable to go long on stock index futures when the opportunity arises [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Due to the US government shutdown, political risks in France and Japan rising, and the US ADP data falling short of expectations, which boosts the expectation of interest - rate cuts, the price of gold is expected to continue to be strong [1]. - Silver: The soft squeeze on foreign - market silver has driven the domestic silver price to be strong, but short - term risks of profit - taking at high levels need to be watched out for [1]. - Copper: The US ADP non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations has boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has exacerbated concerns about the tight global copper supply, and the copper price will continue to be strong [1]. - Aluminum: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, combined with the limited supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum, will keep the price strong in the short term [1]. - Alumina: The production and inventory of alumina continue to increase, and the weak fundamentals are pressuring the spot price. However, the alumina price is approaching the cost line, and the downside space is expected to be limited [1]. - Zinc: Global political risks have risen due to events such as the US government shutdown, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced. The non - ferrous sector is strong. The continuous decline of LME zinc inventory is expected to support the domestic zinc price, but the domestic social inventory has increased after the holiday, and high - level selling hedging opportunities can be considered [1]. - Nickel: The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, boosting non - ferrous metals. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the quota approval situation in 2026 should be monitored in the fourth quarter. Nickel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but high inventory may limit the upside space. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term nickel surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to operate on a short - term basis and wait for high - level selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: Due to macro - level positives and the impact of Indonesia's ore export ban, the shortage of tin ore supply has intensified, and the tin price is expected to continue to strengthen [1]. Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: It is in the wet season in the southwest and continuous resumption of production in the northwest, and there is an expectation of production cuts in polysilicon, so it is bearish [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, an increase in silicon wafer production scheduling, and the long - term anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and market sentiment has subsided, so it will fluctuate [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and supply - side production scheduling has increased [1]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They ended the long holiday stably, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the valuation is low, so they will fluctuate [1]. - Iron Ore: The anti - involution logic is subject to tidal trading. The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, supply is recovering while demand may weaken, and inventory is high [1]. - Glass: The anti - involution logic is tidal, the pressure of supply surplus still exists, and the price is under pressure despite the marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows glass, with a weak reality and large supply - surplus pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The 05 contract failed to reach a new high before the holiday. Although the spot is strong, the expectation has weakened. The spot and futures prices are still in the process of bottom - searching, but considering that many short - sellers rushed to sell before the holiday, it is not appropriate to continue to short, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Indonesia plans to implement B50 in the second half of 2026, which may have a bearish impact on near - month contracts, but there is still support for far - month contracts after 05. The MPOB September report is expected to show production cuts and inventory reduction, which will support the price [1]. - Soybean Oil: China's restriction on rare - earth exports is a bargaining chip in Sino - US negotiations. COFCO Yihai exporting 10,000 tons of soybean oil each in December will accelerate the inventory reduction of soybean oil. The expected reduction of US soybean ending inventory has led to poor crushing margins, and the subsequent reduction in raw materials and oil - mill crushing will support the soybean - oil price [1]. - Rapeseed Products: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the double festivals, supporting international rapeseed products prices, but there is no new driving force. It may be driven up by soybean and palm oil, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: In the short term, the domestic cotton price will probably fluctuate widely within a range. In the long term, the market may face pressure as new cotton comes onto the market [1]. - Raw Sugar: The high proportion of sugar production may be reduced, and the raw - sugar price has started to rebound from the bottom, but the upside space is relatively limited due to oversupply. In the domestic market, the large - scale import has led to the full operation of sugar - processing plants, and there is still pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the overall rebound space is limited, and the strategy of shorting at high levels should be maintained [1]. - Corn: Without obvious policy and weather changes, under the expectation of selling pressure for the new - season corn and the decline in planting costs, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. The grain - storage rhythm of traders and policy changes should be monitored [1]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean - buying and crushing margins are poor, and the domestic market has no obvious premium due to the trade war. The valuation is low. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American weather. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the opportunity arises [1]. - Pulp: The current trading logic is about the trading of
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20251010
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 02:40
2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯:中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA:中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG:1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶:震荡偏强 | 5 | | 合成橡胶:短期震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青:跟随油价偏弱 | 9 | | LLDPE:中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP:中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱:弱现实压制,但成本支撑强 | 13 | | 纸浆:震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇:弱势运行 | 17 | | 尿素:偏弱运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯:短期震荡为主,不追空 | 21 | | 纯碱:现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG:成本端偏弱,关注低位反弹风险 | 23 | | 丙烯:供需紧平衡,现货价格存支撑 | 23 | | PVC:低位震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油:弱势仍在,短线进入调整 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油:暂时弱于高硫,外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 27 | | 集运指数(欧线):2-4正套轻仓入场 | 28 | | 短纤:短期低 ...
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-10-10)-20251010
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:53
交易提示 交易咨询:0571-85165192,85058093 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示(2025-10-10) | | | | 铁矿:节后铁矿有所反弹,更多是供应端消息层面支撑。部分自媒体报道 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 称因铁矿石定价争议升级,对禁止进口 BHP 等矿山矿石的消息产生新的 | | | | | 担忧,但中国钢厂并没有收到相关通知,另外西芒杜事故也影响了市场情 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 绪,后续关注供应端的实际影响情况。近期钢厂盈利面走低,但依旧处于 | | | | | 近年偏高水平,日均铁水产量也维持 241-242 万吨左右,短期很难看到 | | | | | 负反馈,节后核心仍在钢材需求,若十月钢材需求不及预期,从而钢材库 | | | | | 存持续累积,钢价下跌带动利润走低,导致钢厂减产进而形成负反馈。目 | | | | | 前铁矿石交易逻辑不确定性增加,短期供应端干扰下仍有支撑。 | | | | | 煤焦:10 月国内焦煤供给预计将维持平稳运行态势。受前期"反内卷" | | | 煤焦 | ...
纸浆月报-20251010
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:52
行业 纸浆月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 10 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅多晶硅) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 旺季提振有限,低位震荡调整 请阅读正文后的声明 #summa ...
昨日棕油领涨油脂市场,关注MPOB报告
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:32
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-10-10 昨日棕油领涨油脂市场,关注MPOB报告 油脂:昨日棕油领涨油脂市场,关注MPOB报告 蛋白粕:节后现货回稳,盘面低位震荡 玉米/淀粉:新粮卖压来袭,震荡偏弱 生猪:节后消费淡季,猪价下跌 天然橡胶:关注节后下游表现 合成橡胶:区间震荡格局不改 棉花:棉价承压走弱 白糖:糖价反弹 纸浆:市场心态疲软,纸浆维持下跌 双胶纸:招标提振有限,双胶纸偏弱震荡 原木:现货涨价提振,原木表现偏强 【异动品种】 油脂观点:昨⽇棕油领涨油脂市场,关注MPOB报告 逻辑:因近期美⾖和美⾖油反弹,印尼官员表⽰该国将在2026年强制推⾏ ⽣柴B50政策,及预期⻢棕9⽉库存环⽐回落,昨⽇棕油领涨油脂市场。 从宏观环境看,美国联邦政府仍处于"停摆"状态,叠加地缘与经济不确 定性加剧,近⽇美元持续⾛强,原油价格震荡盘整。从产业端看,受美国 政府"停摆"影响,近期美⾖数据暂停更新,但从今年以来美⾖优良率及 天⽓等条件看,后期美⾖单产和产量下调概率较⼤,⼜市场对美国政府给 予农⺠的⼀揽⼦援助计划和需求改善抱有希望,近⽇美⾖和美⾖油反弹提 振国内油 ...
永安期货纸浆早报-20251010
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 00:46
纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/10 SP主力合约收盘价: 4804.00 | 日期 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/09/30 | 2025/09/29 | 2025/09/26 | 2025/09/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 4804.00 | 4834.00 | 4878.00 | 5016.00 | 5060.00 | | 折美元价 | 592.24 | 592.24 | 597.56 | 613.50 | 619.75 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.62060% | -0.90201% | -2.75120% | -0.86957% | 0.31721% | | 山东银星基差 | 731 | 731 | 687 | 594 | 550 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 756 | 726 | 682 | 609 | 565 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...