| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月11日 | | 棉花 | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，近期大宗商品表现偏强，对于棉花也有所带动;棉花产业链呈现原料更强。下游偏弱的局面，纯棉纱价格 跟随原料上涨，但动能偏弱。下游内地纺企开机继续下行，成品库存继续累积、不过新疆纺企开机仍高。截至6月底，棉花商业 库存为282.98万吨，较5月底减少62.89万吨，消化仍然偏好，棉花库存仍存偏紧预期。 ...

| 日期 | 2025/07/10 | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/04 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5196.00 | 5106.00 | 5086.00 | 5074.00 | 5068.00 | | 折美元价 | 632.01 | 620.49 | 618.82 | 617.21 | 617.29 | | 距上一日涨跌 | 1.76263% | 0.39324% | 0.23650% | 0.11839% | -0.51040% | | 山东银星基差 | 739 | 829 | 864 | 876 | 882 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 789 | 859 | 879 | 891 | 897 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | 金狮 | CFR | 780 | 6500 | 101.55 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-7-11 资金情绪快速推涨胶价 油脂：马棕6月库存高于预期，MPOB报告相对偏空 蛋⽩粕：巴西贴水再度上涨，盘面区间下方反弹 ⽟⽶/淀粉：市场心态承压，期现窄幅震荡 ⽣猪：消费走货一般，生猪现货回调 橡㬵：资金情绪快速推涨胶价 合成橡㬵：盘面跟随上涨 纸浆：商品普遍大涨，纸浆跟随走高 棉花：棉价小幅波动，驱动不强 ⽩糖：糖价小幅上涨，但上方高度受限 原⽊：现货下跌压力较大，盘面底部震荡 【异动品种】 天然橡㬵观点：资⾦情绪快速推涨㬵价 逻辑：天胶方面前一日夜盘大幅拉涨，昨日继续小幅走高，整体情绪偏 强。我们认为更多是受到资金情绪的影响，即近期商品市场多头情绪浓 厚，在有反内卷主题与个别有仓单矛盾的品种带头快速拉涨后，橡胶作为 前期没有跟涨的品种估值相对偏低，因此受到了资金的青睐。且当前市场 处于强预期的氛围当中，橡胶作为与宏观强关联的品种，补涨也是相对合 理。橡胶自身基本面短期也暂无大矛盾，是一个等待新变量出现的时间 点。供给端来说，亚洲大部分产区均处于雨季影响当中，原料价格小幅反 弹上涨。不过由于过去一个多月产地受降雨影响 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-11 棉价偏强震荡，纸浆低位回升 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13865元/吨，较前一日变动+35元/吨，幅度+0.25%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15175元/吨，较前一日变动+12元/吨，现货基差CF09+1310，较前一日变动-23；3128B棉全国均价15196元/吨， 较前一日变动+12元/吨，现货基差CF09+1331，较前一日变动-23。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA），截至7月3日一周，美国本年度陆地棉净签约1.7万吨，装运5.5万吨。其中 至中国净签约272吨，当周未装运。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续偏强震荡。国际方面，目前来看今年供应端天气的叙事性不足，考虑到巴西和中国的增产预期， 25/26年度全球棉市仍将处于供应偏松格局。由于美棉实播面积高于预期，主产区旱情较此前明显改善，预计新年 度美棉平衡表也难有明显改善，下半年美棉期价预计延续震荡格局，跟随宏观市场情绪波动为主。后续需关注美 国"对等关税"暂停期结束后的政策变化，如果美国能与多个国家达成贸易协定，改善美棉需求预期，预计能给盘 面带来一定提振作用。 ...

| | | | | 西新榨季制糖比,从而使得产糖量超预期。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 玉米 | | 短期政策性谷物投放预期和麦玉价差偏低对玉米市场带来利空影 响,关注投放量和投放价格,预期盘面偏震荡,建议观望。新季 | | | | | | 种植成本下移,远月C01建议关注逢高做空机会。 | | | | | | 国内累库压力下,基差和近月盘面表现预期承压。美豆供需平衡 | | | | 日期 | | 表存趋紧预期,若中美贸易政策不变,四季度豆粕存去库预期, | | | | | | 远月合约预期重心抬升;若达成协议,预期美豆上涨贴水下跌, | | | | | | 整体盘面下跌空间预期有限。 | | | | | | 纸浆外盘报价下降,发运量增加,国内需求清淡,目前估值偏 | | | | | | 代. 同时存在宏观利好。 | | | | 原不 | 看否 | 原木当前处于淡季,在外盘上涨的情况下供应下降有限,偏弱看 守。 | | | | | | 生猪存栏持续修复背景下,出栏体重持续增加。盘面存栏宽裕预 | | | | 丰信 | | 期较明显,贴水现货较多。短期现货受出 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 7 月 11 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-11） | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石盘面受情绪影响低位反弹，矿山季末冲量基本结束，澳 洲和巴西发运量均有一定程度下降，近端到港量也环比下行，后续供应依 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 然宽松。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港口库存仍 | | | 铁矿石 | 上行 | 旧在去库，240 以上的高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水见顶情 | | | | | 况。供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。中 | | | | | 长期看，铁矿石中长期看整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对低位、港口库 | | | | | 存步入累库通道的局面，供需过剩格局不变，介于短期情绪扰动，短期大 | | | | | 幅拉涨并突破 740 元/吨一线，短期偏强为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。 | | | 煤焦 | 上行 | 消息面传出部分地区焦企或将复产 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年07月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：关注长丝工厂减产情况，月差反套，多MEG空PTA | 2 | | MEG：低库存，单边震荡市，月差逢低正套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：上方空间有所收窄 | 6 | | 沥青：随油震荡，小幅累库 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP：现货上涨，成交清淡 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期偏强运行 | 13 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：震荡偏强 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：短期宽幅震荡 | 24 | | PVC：短期偏强，但上方空间有限 | 27 | | 燃料油：夜盘下跌，持续弱于低硫 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：偏弱震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收缩 | 29 | | 集运指数（欧线）：10空单 ...

| 《八♠ 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月10日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，盘中触及前高附近，棉花现货交投大多冷清;基差总体持稳，纯棉纱成交依旧偏清淡，下游需求仍旧不 足，纺企开机继续下行,纺企成品库存继续上升，库存压力有所显现。截至6月底，棉花商业库存为282.98万吨，较5月底减少 62.89万吨,消化仍然偏好,棉花库存仍存偏紧预期。宏观上,美国和越南达成贸易协议,美国将对进口越南商品 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

农产品日报 | 2025-07-10 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13830元/吨，较前一日变动+45元/吨，幅度+0.33%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15163元/吨，较前一日变动-12元/吨，现货基差CF09+1333，较前一日变动-57；3128B棉全国均价15184元/吨， 较前一日变动-9元/吨，现货基差CF09+1354，较前一日变动-54。 近期市场资讯，美棉种植结束，现蕾、结铃进度同比偏慢，主产区天气大部分向好，周末德州中部洪水，部分地 区受灾严重。整体优良率较正常水平偏高。截止7月6日，美棉15个棉花主要种植州棉花现蕾率为48%，较去年同期 慢3个百分点；近五年同期平均水平在49%，较近五年同期平均水平慢1个百分点。美棉15个棉花主要种植州棉花结 铃率为14%，较去年同期慢4个百分点；近五年同期平均水平在15%，较近五年同期平均水平慢1个百分点。美棉15 个棉花主要种植州棉花优良率为52%，较去年同期高7个百分点，较五年均值高6个百分点。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价偏强震荡。国际方面，目前来看今年供应端天气的叙事性不足，考虑到巴西和中国的增产预期，25/26 年度全球棉市仍将处于 ...