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40%增速的毛戈平为什么不涨?
新财富· 2026-01-07 08:56
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impressive financial performance of the company Mao Ge Ping, showcasing significant revenue and profit growth, while also discussing the effectiveness of its online-to-offline (O2O) business model and the challenges it may face in the future [3][9][23]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023, 2024, and H1 2025 is projected at 2.886 billion yuan, 3.885 billion yuan, and 2.588 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of +58%, +35%, and +31% respectively [3]. - Net profit for the same periods is expected to be 662 million yuan, 881 million yuan, and 670 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of +88%, +33%, and +36% [3]. - The net profit margin for these periods is 23%, 22.7%, and 26%, indicating a strong profitability level [3]. Same-Store Sales Growth - The company reported a same-store sales growth (SSSG) of 18.1% for H1 2024 and 18% for H1 2025, which is considered a strong double-digit growth rate by investors [7]. Channel Structure and Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, offline channel revenue is expected to be 1.949 billion yuan, accounting for 52.2% of total revenue, while online channel revenue is projected at 1.784 billion yuan, making up 47.8% [9]. - By H1 2025, offline revenue is anticipated to be 1.224 billion yuan (48.6% of total), with online revenue at 1.297 billion yuan (51.4%) [9]. Business Model and Strategy - The company employs an online-to-offline strategy, using online platforms to attract new customers and guide them to offline stores for a better purchasing experience [10][11]. - The online channel serves primarily as a customer acquisition tool rather than a profit center, with the goal of converting online shoppers into offline members [10][11]. Membership and Customer Retention - The membership repurchase rate for online channels has improved from 13.9% in 2021 to 24.1% in 2025H1, while the offline channel's rate has remained higher at 30.3% for the same period [20]. - It is estimated that 20-30% of new online members will transition to the offline membership pool, enhancing customer retention [20]. Product Structure and Growth Engines - In 2024, the color cosmetics segment is expected to generate 2.3 billion yuan (59.3% of total revenue), while the skincare segment is projected at 1.43 billion yuan (36.8%) [21]. - The company has successfully integrated its skincare products with its makeup offerings, although there are concerns about the performance of basic skincare products [21][24]. Future Challenges - The company may face challenges as online growth slows and the return on investment (ROI) for online advertising decreases, potentially impacting the overall growth trajectory [24]. - There is a need for the company to achieve breakthroughs in the basic skincare segment to maintain growth, which will depend on its R&D capabilities and supply chain management [24].