炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源丨深蓝财经 撰文丨杨波 不装了，摊牌了。 顶着"港股国货彩妆第一股"光环上市刚满1周年的毛戈平（01318.HK）迎来了核心团队的集中减持—— 创始人毛戈平携亲属组团减持，减持比例高达3.51%。按照今天收盘价计算，套现金额或高达15亿港 元。减持理由也令人回味，引发热议。 值得注意的是，毛戈平的核心管理层几乎都是亲属，家族化治理特征明显。这次集体减持背后，有哪些 隐情？为什么减持公告后，今天股价反而大涨7.26%？ 1 毛戈平家族组团减持，股民议论纷纷 6日，毛戈平在港交所发布公告，近日收到执行董事毛戈平、执行董事汪立群（毛戈平配偶）、执行董 事毛霓萍（毛戈平的姐姐）、毛慧萍（毛戈平的姐姐）、汪立华（毛戈平配偶的弟弟）、宋虹佺的减持 计划告知函，上述股东拟在未来6个月内主要通过大宗交易方式合计减持最多1720万H股，占总股本约 3.51%。这样的减持比例，还是属于比较大的。 值得注意的是，目前毛戈平董事会成员6人中，有5人都是毛戈平及其亲属。 唯一不是亲属的董事——宋虹佺，是毛戈平多年的创业伙伴，于2002年加入公司。现任公司执行 ...

0 1 完美的数据 毛 戈 平 自 上 市 以 来 的 数 据 堪 称 无 懈 可 击 ， 2023/2024/2025H1 营 收 分 别 为 28.86 亿 元 /38.85 亿 元 /25.88 亿 元 ， 分 别 同 比 +58%/+35%/+31% 。 2023/2024/2025H1净利润分别为6.62亿元/8.81亿元/6.70亿元，分别同比+88%/+33%/+36%。从利润率变动来看，2023/2024/2025H1净利率分别为 23%/+22.7%/+26%，确认眼神，是韩束、珀莱雅们做梦都想达到的高利润水平。 同样完美的还有毛戈平线下的同店SSSG，据公司公告，2024H1/2025H1公司可比同店收入平均增长率为18.1%/18%，是苛刻的投资人认可的双位数增长 率。 | 同个专柜年收入 白力元 | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 | 2023 | 2023H1 | 2024H1 | 2024H1 | 2025H1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 同个专柜数目 | 230 | | 277 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in H1 2025, with net profit projected to be between 6.65 and 6.75 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35% to 37%, slightly exceeding expectations [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue for H1 2025 to be between 25.7 and 26.0 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.4% to 31.9% [2] - The net profit margin is expected to improve by 0.93% to 1.01%, reaching a historical high of 25.88% to 25.96% [2] - The company has slightly raised its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 to 2.43 RMB, for 2026 to 3.12 RMB, and for 2027 to 3.94 RMB [1] Group 2: Market Expansion and Strategy - The company is expanding its product categories and channels, maintaining robust growth through a focus on high-quality products and services [2] - During the 618 shopping festival, the brand experienced over 70% growth online, becoming one of the fastest-growing brands [2] - The company is entering the perfume category with the launch of the "Wen Dao Dong Fang" series, which includes 13 fragrance options tailored to Eastern aesthetics [3] Group 3: Brand and Competitive Position - The company leverages the founder's IP and strong brand influence to drive growth across various categories and channels [1][3] - The expansion into high-end department stores, including new locations in Beijing and Hangzhou, indicates an increase in brand recognition and consumer acceptance [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][17]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 665-675 million RMB in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 35%-37%, slightly exceeding expectations. The net profit margin continues to improve, indicating strong brand power and robust growth across categories and channels [3][9]. - The company has shown a significant increase in revenue, with a projected total revenue of 5.18 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 33.3% compared to the previous year [6][10]. - The company has successfully expanded its online presence, with a reported growth of over 70% during the 618 shopping festival, making it one of the fastest-growing brands [9][10]. - The launch of the "Wen Dao Dong Fang" perfume series marks the company's entry into the fragrance category, aiming to leverage its brand influence and product quality to capture market share in high-end beauty [9][10]. Financial Summary - The projected financials for the company are as follows: - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 5,180 million RMB, with a growth rate of 33.3% [6]. - Gross profit is expected to reach 4,374 million RMB, with a gross margin of approximately 84.44% [10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,189 million RMB for 2025, reflecting a growth of 35.1% [6][10]. - The company maintains a strong financial position with a projected PE ratio of 37.62 for 2025 and a PB ratio of 9.53 [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Minth Group (425.HK) and Top Group (601689.CH) [2][4] - Top Group is given an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 59.1 CNY [8] Core Insights - Minth Group is projected to achieve total revenue of 23.15 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with a net profit of 2.32 billion CNY, up 21.9% [2] - Top Group is expected to realize operating revenue of 26.6 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.02%, with a net profit of 3.001 billion CNY, up 39.52% [6][8] - Both companies are focusing on optimizing operational efficiency and expanding into new markets, including electric vehicle wireless charging and robotics [3][7] Summary by Sections Minth Group - The company has improved its gross margin to approximately 28.9%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased profitability in its plastic and battery box segments [2] - Cash flow has improved, allowing the company to resume dividends and share buybacks, reflecting management's confidence in future growth [4] Top Group - The company has faced challenges such as increased competition and raw material price fluctuations, but has managed to maintain a net profit margin of 11.3%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Plans for capacity expansion include new factories in China and Mexico, with a focus on the rapidly growing robotics sector [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer sector, specifically highlighting the potential in new consumption opportunities and structural growth within the domestic market [6]. Core Insights - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, indicating resilience in domestic demand despite external pressures [1]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of government policies aimed at boosting consumption, particularly in sectors such as home appliances, sports, and entertainment [1][4]. - The online retail penetration continues to grow, with a 5.8% year-on-year increase in physical goods sold online, reflecting a shift towards digital consumption [2]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In April, the restaurant and retail sectors saw year-on-year growth of 5.2% and 5.1%, respectively, indicating a stable recovery trend [2]. - The online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.1% year-on-year from January to April, with an online penetration rate rising to 24.3% [2]. Consumer Trends - Various consumer categories showed positive growth, particularly in home appliances (up 38.8%), furniture (up 26.9%), and sports equipment (up 23.3%), driven by policies encouraging consumption upgrades [3]. - Jewelry sales surged by 25.3% year-on-year, attributed to investment-driven demand for gold and silver [3]. Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices showing a slight decline of 0.2% [4]. - Service prices increased by 0.3% year-on-year, with notable growth in domestic services such as housekeeping and education [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main investment themes for 2025: 1. New consumption opportunities driven by domestic brands [5]. 2. High-growth emotional consumption sectors [5]. 3. The burgeoning silver economy [5]. 4. AI-driven consumer innovations [5]. - Specific stock recommendations include brands like 毛戈平 (Mao Geping), 安踏体育 (Anta Sports), and 海澜之家 (HLA) among others, all rated as "Buy" [9][41].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the success of MAOGEPING (MGP) as the only domestic high-end cosmetics brand in China, driven by the founder's expertise and influence, achieving significant revenue and profit growth in recent years [3]. Company Summary - MAOGEPING was founded by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping and includes two major beauty brands: MAOGEPING and Zhi Ai Zhong Sheng, along with a makeup artistry training business [3]. - In 2023, MGP ranked 12th among the top 15 high-end beauty brands in China, with a market share of 1.8% [3]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 3.885 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.6%, and a net profit of 881 million yuan, with a growth of 32.8% [3]. - From 2021 to 2024, the compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for revenue and net profit are expected to be 35.0% and 38.6%, respectively [3]. Industry Analysis - The Chinese cosmetics industry is in a growth phase, with skincare and makeup markets reaching 463 billion yuan and 116.8 billion yuan in 2023, respectively [4]. - The CAGR for skincare and makeup from 2018 to 2023 was 8.4% and 4.7%, with projections for 2023 to 2028 at 8.7% and 8.4% [4]. - The high-end segment is currently dominated by international brands, but domestic brands are increasingly emerging, with a shift from marketing-heavy strategies to brand development [4]. - The positioning of domestic and international brands has diversified, with high-end domestic brands gaining traction and pricing comparable to international counterparts [4]. Competitive Advantages - The brand's strength lies in its deep-rooted expertise as a makeup artist brand, which generates significant consumer recognition and loyalty [5]. - MGP has successfully created unique products that reflect Eastern aesthetics, particularly in the facial makeup category, with a comprehensive SKU layout compared to both domestic and international brands [5]. - The combination of product quality and enhanced service experiences strengthens brand perception and differentiates MGP from international competitors [5].