Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Recent surge in gold prices, with London gold reaching nearly $3580 per ounce on September 3, 2025, after a four-month period of high volatility [12][10] - Under neutral assumptions, the gold price midpoint for the second half of the year is projected at $3627 per ounce, with an optimistic scenario suggesting a rise to $3816 per ounce [12][10] - Key drivers for the recent price increase include a shift in investment from long-term US and European bonds to gold due to concerns over debt risks, particularly in Europe [12][11] Group 2: International Beauty Market Trends - The global beauty market is expected to grow at a rate of 4.5% in 2024, down from 8% in 2023, with significant regional disparities [13][13] - The European market outperformed the global average with a 7.5% year-on-year growth, while the North Asia market saw a decline of 2% [13][13] - Major international beauty brands are adapting to the competitive landscape in China by embracing new online channels and local partnerships, leading to a slight recovery in market performance [13][13] Group 3: Fourth Paradigm Company Overview - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 68.52 billion, 88.19 billion, and 112.26 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 29%, and 27% respectively [17][17] - The company is expected to turn a profit by 2025, with net profits forecasted at 0.55 billion, 2.83 billion, and 5.68 billion yuan for the same period [17][17] - The company's strategy focuses on standardization, which is anticipated to drive rapid industry expansion and maintain long-term competitiveness [14][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the cosmetics and medical beauty sector, highlighting strong growth potential and investment opportunities in the industry [14][19]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown resilience, outperforming the market during the week of August 29 to September 5, 2025, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining only 0.8% [3][4]. - The transition to autumn skincare marks the beginning of a consumption peak for the sector, with significant sales events such as the Autumn Beauty Consumption Festival and Double 11 approaching, creating new investment opportunities [9][10]. - Major companies in the sector are optimistic about their performance in the second half of 2025, as indicated by a recent conference involving over ten beauty care companies [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Cosmetics Index remained stable, outperforming the Shenwan A Index by 1.4 percentage points, while the Shenwan Personal Care Index fell by 1.8%, underperforming the Shenwan A Index by 0.3 percentage points [3][4]. Key Company Reviews - **Mao Geping (1318HK)**: Reported a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31%, with a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36%. The color cosmetics segment saw a revenue of 1.42 billion yuan, while skincare generated 1.09 billion yuan, reflecting strong brand momentum [10][11]. - **Shangmei Co. (02145HK)**: Achieved a revenue of 4.108 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 17.3% increase, with a net profit of 556 million yuan, up 34.7%. The main brand, Han Shu, contributed significantly to growth, with a revenue of 3.344 billion yuan [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Shangmei Co., Porlaia, and Shanghai Jahwa, which have strong brand matrices and relatively low PE multiples. Other notable mentions are Marubi Biological and Mao Geping, which are positioned well to benefit from the rise of domestic beauty brands [10][19]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and product pipelines, particularly in the upstream medical beauty segment, with a recommendation for Aimeike [10][19]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in online sales, with H1 2025 online revenue for Mao Geping reaching 1.297 billion yuan, a 39% year-on-year increase, marking a shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards online platforms [12][18]. - The overall cosmetics retail market showed a 4.5% growth in July 2025, indicating a robust recovery in consumer spending [23][26]. Strategic Developments - Porlaia's investment in Huazhi Xiao reflects a strategic move to enhance its multi-brand strategy and capitalize on the influence of Gen Z consumers [28]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that domestic brands are increasingly capturing market share, with a notable shift in consumer perception from "value for money" to "quality choice" [32].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong performance in the first half of 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth, indicating a positive outlook for the business. Group 1: Overall Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 31% [1] - Net profit for H1 2025 reached 670 million yuan, up 36% year-on-year [1] - Gross margin stood at 84.2%, slightly down by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while net margin improved to 25.9%, up 0.9 percentage points [1] Group 2: Segment Performance - Makeup segment revenue in H1 2025 was 1.42 billion yuan, growing by 31.1% year-on-year, driven by strong sales of key products [2] - Skincare segment revenue reached 1.09 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33.4%, supported by high-performing products [2] - Fragrance segment generated revenue of 11.41 million yuan, showing strong performance from the "Wen Dao Dong Fang" series [2] - Makeup training revenue declined by 5.9% year-on-year to 67.31 million yuan [2] Group 3: Channel Performance - Offline revenue in H1 2025 was 1.224 billion yuan, up 26.6% year-on-year, with a total of 437 stores [3] - Online revenue reached 1.297 billion yuan, growing by 39% year-on-year, accounting for 51.4% of total revenue [3] - The company has 19 million members, a 53% increase year-on-year, with a repurchase rate of 26.8% [3] Group 4: Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on product innovation and international expansion, with new skincare and makeup lines launched in mid-2025 [3] - Plans for a research and development center in Hangzhou by the end of 2026 aim to support product diversification and market penetration [3] - The company is prioritizing entry into European and Asia-Pacific markets with localized teams and high-end channels [3] Group 5: Brand Positioning - The company is positioned as a leading domestic beauty brand, focusing on the mid-to-high-end makeup segment [4] - Strong brand premium and unique positioning in Oriental aesthetics contribute to long-term growth potential [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.184 billion, 1.542 billion, and 1.953 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 37, 29, and 23 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6][22] Core Insights - The company has shown strong performance in the high-end domestic beauty market, with significant revenue growth and brand momentum [6][10] - The company reported a revenue of 2.59 billion RMB in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 31%, and a net profit of 670 million RMB, up 36% year-on-year [6][10] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 84.2%, with a net profit margin of 25.9%, indicating effective cost control [6][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 2,886 million RMB - 2024: 3,885 million RMB - 2025E: 5,173 million RMB - 2026E: 6,852 million RMB - 2027E: 8,533 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 58% for 2023, 35% for 2024, and gradually decreasing to 25% by 2027 [5][13] - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: 662 million RMB - 2024: 881 million RMB - 2025E: 1,184 million RMB - 2026E: 1,542 million RMB - 2027E: 1,953 million RMB - The projected PE ratios are 64.7 for 2023, decreasing to 22.5 by 2027 [5][13] Segment Performance - The company experienced double-digit growth in both color cosmetics and skincare, with significant contributions from new product launches [6] - In H1 2025, color cosmetics revenue reached 1.42 billion RMB (up 31.1% YoY), while skincare revenue was 1.09 billion RMB (up 33.4% YoY) [6] - The fragrance segment also showed promising growth, with revenue of 11.41 million RMB, while the makeup training segment saw a decline of 5.9% [6] Channel Performance - The company has effectively released its potential across all channels, with offline revenue of 1.22 billion RMB (up 26.6% YoY) and online revenue of 1.297 billion RMB (up 39% YoY) [6] - The number of members reached 19 million, with a repurchase rate of 26.8%, indicating strong customer loyalty [6] Research and Development - The company is focused on innovation and international expansion, with new product launches planned and a research center set to support growth [6] - The company aims to penetrate the European and Asia-Pacific markets with localized teams and high-end channels [6] Brand Positioning - The company is positioned as a leading domestic beauty brand, capitalizing on the high-end color cosmetics market with a strong emphasis on unique aesthetics and product innovation [6]

Summary of the Conference Call for Mao Geping Company Overview - The conference call discusses Mao Geping, a company operating in the cosmetics industry, focusing on makeup, skincare, and fragrance products. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Growth in Online and Offline Channels** Mao Geping's online and offline channels are both experiencing growth. The online channel on Douyin has seen over 40% year-on-year growth, with nearly 50% growth during the 618 shopping festival. Monthly GMV has reached over 100 million RMB. Offline same-store sales have increased by nearly double digits year-on-year, and the number of stores is expanding positively [2][3]. 2. **Performance of Key Products** In the makeup segment, the caviar cushion has maintained a doubling growth rate, while the small gold fan powder has seen an 89% increase in online channels. The light and transparent powder cream has grown over 55%, ranking among the top three online products. In skincare, the caviar mask and black cream remain core products, with the new soft skin primer experiencing a remarkable ninefold year-on-year growth [2][5]. 3. **New Product Launches** Mao Geping has launched new products across makeup, skincare, and fragrance categories. The Oriental fragrance series has seen significant demand, with many SKUs going out of stock shortly after launch, indicating strong market demand [2][5]. 4. **Market Resilience** Despite a general trend of cosmetics brands experiencing a peak followed by a decline during the 618 period, Mao Geping's half-year and annual reports maintain a positive outlook, demonstrating strong anti-cyclical characteristics [2][6]. 5. **Future Growth Potential** The company is expected to continue focusing on new makeup products and expanding into the fragrance category. There is potential for deeper exploration of higher-end and youth-oriented skincare products, which may lead to stronger product offerings and increased market confidence [4][6]. 6. **Investment Recommendation** Based on the tracking of Mao Geping's operational data and fundamentals, along with confidence in its product extension capabilities and governance structure, the current stock price below 100 HKD is considered to be in a value range. The company is strongly recommended for investment [2][6]. 7. **Dividend Policy** Mao Geping's active dividend policy is expected to enhance shareholder EPS, serving as a catalyst for EPS growth in the coming years, thereby increasing investment attractiveness [4]. Additional Important Content - The company has a strong operational performance in the first half of 2025, with online channels achieving nearly 50% GMV growth and offline channels showing significant same-store growth [3]. - The company has completed a store expansion plan, exceeding expectations with a growth rate of around 10% in store numbers [3]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Mao Geping's performance, product offerings, market dynamics, and investment outlook.

Group 1 - The high-end beauty market is experiencing a stark contrast, with luxury brand La Prairie seeing a significant decline in sales, while affordable brands like Pechoin are thriving [1][2] - La Prairie's sales dropped by 17.5% year-on-year, marking the largest decline in five years, with limited sales on high-priced products [2] - In contrast, Beiersdorf's affordable brand Nivea achieved global sales of €5.6 billion, with popular products in the Chinese market [6] Group 2 - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing ingredient transparency and value over brand prestige, leading to a rise in demand for effective, affordable skincare products [8][11] - Domestic brands like Pechoin and Han Shu are performing exceptionally well, with Pechoin's online GMV expected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2024 [9] - The shift in consumer behavior is reshaping the beauty industry, as effective products become more important than expensive branding [12]