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鹏华固收专家展望债市:资金维持相对宽松,整体环境比较有利
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-05-16 02:25
Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a clear divergence following the recent interest rate cuts, with short-term rates declining and long-term rates rising. The overall environment remains favorable for the bond market, with expectations that credit bonds will outperform interest rate bonds, and medium to short-term bonds will outperform long-term bonds [1][5]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain in a favorable environment due to the implementation of more proactive macro policies, including both fiscal and monetary policies. There is a possibility of continued monetary easing, which may lead to a decrease in bond market yields [3][5]. - The stock market is anticipated to experience volatility, with economic pressures expected to persist in the second quarter. Corporate earnings are projected to stabilize at the bottom, and any changes in tariffs between the US and China could provide a boost to the market [3][5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy emphasizes a focus on internal and external changes, particularly regarding monetary policy, fiscal policy, and trade negotiations. The bond market is expected to favor credit bonds over interest rate bonds, with medium to short-term bonds being more advantageous than long-term bonds [5][6]. - The current investment environment is characterized by a relatively loose funding situation, with expectations of continued monetary easing. The strategy will maintain a neutral to slightly high duration level, but further accumulation will not be considered at low yield levels [7][8]. Group 3: Fund Performance - The Penghua Convertible Bond Fund has a conversion bond ratio of 80-85% and has shown strong performance, ranking 3rd and 7th in its category over the past 7 and 5 years, respectively [2]. - The Penghua Dual Bond Fund, which allocates 10-40% to convertible bonds, has also demonstrated solid performance, with net value growth rates of 12.40%, 27.33%, and 105.23% over the past year, five years, and since inception, respectively [2].