2026 年作为 "十五五" 开局之年，宏观经济与资本市场走向备受关注。近日，鹏华基金固收团队四位固 收领域资深基金经理 ——债券投资一部总经理祝松、债券投资二部总经理刘涛、多元资产投资部总经 理王石千、混合资产投资部基金经理陈大烨携团队重磅发布2026年度投资展望和策略，围绕宏观经济判 断、市场潜在风险及"固收+"投资展开深度研判，一致看好政策护航下的市场结构性机会，"固收+"领域 面临的机遇大于挑战，同时针对不同风险偏好投资者推出特色鲜明的产品解决方案。 政策基调保持积极，投资增速有望企稳回升 多位基金经理认为，2026年国内宏观经济增长核心驱动力呈现多元支撑格局。在祝松看来，主要来自于 消费增长和投资企稳。消费方面，预计2026年扩大内需政策仍将持续发力，社零增速可能保持在相对较 高水平。投资方面，基建等投资增速有望企稳提升，2025年中央经济工作会议强调2026年继续实施积极 的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。刘涛表示，2026年中国经济增长 的核心驱动力将主要来自财政扩张、制造业升级、内需修复和出口韧性。 在潜在风险方面，祝松表示，2026年国内宏观经济潜在风险可能主要来 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the impressive performance of Penghua Fixed Income team in the first half of 2025, generating over 6.7 billion yuan in profits for investors amidst market volatility [1][8] - The team has successfully navigated the bond market, showcasing their investment management capabilities and creating value for investors [2][8] Fund Performance - Penghua Fixed Income's money market and non-money bond funds achieved net profits of 3.378 billion yuan and 3.345 billion yuan respectively in the first half of 2025 [1] - The net profits for specific fund types include pure bond funds at 1.692 billion yuan, fixed income plus funds at 1.433 billion yuan, and bond index funds at 220 million yuan [1] - The top-performing funds in the pure bond category include Penghua Fengxiang, Penghua Jinrun, and others, with profits of 314 million yuan, 165 million yuan, and 102 million yuan respectively [3] Fund Manager Expertise - Several fund managers have demonstrated exceptional active management skills, contributing significantly to the overall profits of the funds they manage [4] - Notable fund managers include Wang Shiqian, Fang Chang, and others, with respective profits of 1.063 billion yuan, 493 million yuan, and 473 million yuan from their managed products [4][5] Investor Engagement - The number of investors in Penghua Fixed Income's funds has increased significantly, with over 56 million total accounts as of June 2025 [1][8] - The top 10 bond funds by investor count have seen substantial interest, with funds like Penghua Nian Nian Hong and Penghua Fengxiang exceeding 910,000 and 820,000 accounts respectively [6][7] Strategic Outlook - The Penghua Fixed Income team aims to continue leveraging their research capabilities and diverse asset allocation strategies to deliver stable returns for investors in varying market conditions [8]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a clear divergence following the recent interest rate cuts, with short-term rates declining and long-term rates rising. The overall environment remains favorable for the bond market, with expectations that credit bonds will outperform interest rate bonds, and medium to short-term bonds will outperform long-term bonds [1][5]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain in a favorable environment due to the implementation of more proactive macro policies, including both fiscal and monetary policies. There is a possibility of continued monetary easing, which may lead to a decrease in bond market yields [3][5]. - The stock market is anticipated to experience volatility, with economic pressures expected to persist in the second quarter. Corporate earnings are projected to stabilize at the bottom, and any changes in tariffs between the US and China could provide a boost to the market [3][5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy emphasizes a focus on internal and external changes, particularly regarding monetary policy, fiscal policy, and trade negotiations. The bond market is expected to favor credit bonds over interest rate bonds, with medium to short-term bonds being more advantageous than long-term bonds [5][6]. - The current investment environment is characterized by a relatively loose funding situation, with expectations of continued monetary easing. The strategy will maintain a neutral to slightly high duration level, but further accumulation will not be considered at low yield levels [7][8]. Group 3: Fund Performance - The Penghua Convertible Bond Fund has a conversion bond ratio of 80-85% and has shown strong performance, ranking 3rd and 7th in its category over the past 7 and 5 years, respectively [2]. - The Penghua Dual Bond Fund, which allocates 10-40% to convertible bonds, has also demonstrated solid performance, with net value growth rates of 12.40%, 27.33%, and 105.23% over the past year, five years, and since inception, respectively [2].

Performance Insights - In Q1 2025, convertible bond funds achieved a median return of 3.48%, outperforming pure bond funds which had a median return of -0.19%[1] - The first quarter saw significant growth in the scale of convertible bond funds, reaching 98.4 billion CNY, an increase of 3.6% from the previous quarter[2] - The excess return of convertible bond funds was highlighted, with a 25th percentile excess return of 1.72%[8] Fund Size and Positioning - The scale of first and second-tier bond funds increased by 331 billion CNY and 871 billion CNY, reaching 7686 billion CNY and 7692 billion CNY respectively in Q1 2025[2] - Convertible bond fund positions increased by 0.32 percentage points to 91.24%, marking a historical high[2] - Traditional bond funds saw a reduction in convertible bond positions, with first-tier bond funds decreasing by 0.04 percentage points to 8.65%[22] Market Trends and Strategies - Public funds focused on increasing positions in sectors like AI and photovoltaic components while reducing exposure to banks and brokerages[34] - The overall market environment in April 2025 is characterized by uncertainties, prompting a cautious approach among fund managers[3] - The preference for lower-risk bond funds is driven by banks' risk appetite and capital usage considerations[23] Risk Factors - Potential risks include accelerated style rotation in equity markets and unexpected adjustments in convertible bond market rules[4]