Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, Shanghai tin showed a strong high - level volatile trend. On January 9, 2026, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 327,000 yuan/ton, with large fluctuations in futures prices and significant changes in basis [16]. - In November 2025, the refined tin output was 15,490 tons, returning to normal in terms of both month - on - month and year - on - year comparisons. The cumulative domestic tin ore output from January to September was 56,500 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase. The domestic tin ore supply remained stable. The repeated process of mine resumption in Myanmar affected the price range. In November, Indonesia's exports returned to normal, with an export volume of 7,458.64 tons, a 25.59% year - on - year increase and a 182% month - on - month increase [16]. - In November, the demand growth in integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC remained good, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers and some white - goods slowed down. It is expected that in December, the demand in emerging fields will maintain resilience, while the demand in some traditional fields will be adjusted. According to preliminary estimates by the Passenger Car Association, in December 2025, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by national passenger - car manufacturers was 1.57 million, a 4% year - on - year increase and an 8% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in 2025 was 15.33 million, a 25% year - on - year increase. The domestic economy has resilience, and the prosperity of new - energy and semiconductor industries has improved; overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still a high probability of interest - rate cuts in the later period [16]. - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, under the background of mine - end interference, profits will remain at a low level [16]. - LME inventory increased slightly on a weekly basis; SHFE inventory decreased slightly on a weekly basis; and social inventory decreased slightly on a weekly basis [16]. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy still has resilience, and the overall prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. remains upward. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there are still expectations of interest - rate cuts. The mine - end situation is unstable, and the futures price remains strong. However, high - price expectations may suppress demand and stimulate supply. The industry association has called on all parties in the market to maintain a rational and cautious attitude. In terms of operation, hold long positions with a light position. Those with heavy positions can appropriately reduce their positions. The weekly reference support level has been raised to around 320,000 - 323,000 yuan/ton. Long positions can buy put options for protection. Later, focus on the implementation of macro - measures, the disturbances of Myanmar and Congo mines, the speed of Indonesia's exports, and the verification and guidance of consumption data [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly View and Strategy - **View**: After - holiday high - level strong volatility in Shanghai tin, with large fluctuations in futures prices and basis. Supply, demand, cost - profit, and inventory show different trends. The domestic economy has resilience, and overseas uncertainties remain high [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions with a light position, reduce heavy positions appropriately. The reference support level is 320,000 - 323,000 yuan/ton, and long positions can buy put options for protection. Pay attention to macro - measures, mine disturbances, export speed, and consumption data [16]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure No specific content provided for in - depth summary. 3. Futures and Spot Markets No specific content provided for in - depth summary other than mentioning the SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis figures. 4. Inventory - As of January 8, 2026, SHFE inventory was 6,788 tons, decreasing slightly on a weekly basis. As of January 7, 2026, LME total inventory was 5,405 tons, increasing slightly on a weekly basis. As of January 2, 2026, the refined tin social inventory was 9,309 tons, decreasing slightly on a weekly basis [33][37]. 5. Cost and Profit As of January 9, 2026, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees continued to be weak [42]. 6. Supply - In November 2025, the refined tin output was 15,490 tons, returning to normal supply. The domestic tin ore output in September was 6,263.28 tons, showing a slight month - on - month decrease. In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 66.5%, returning to normal [48][53]. 7. Demand - In November 2025, China's automobile output was 3.519 million, a 2.4% year - on - year increase; the output of electronic computers was 29.028 million, a 1.4% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, China's PVC output was 2.137 million tons, an 8.5% year - on - year increase; in November 2025, the output of mobile electronic communications was 142.35 million, an 11.6% year - on - year decrease. In November 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 15.026 million, a 23.4% year - on - year decrease; the refrigerator output was 9.442 million, a 5.6% year - on - year increase. In November 2025, China's washing - machine output was 12.013 million, a 5.5% year - on - year increase; the color - TV output was 17.449 million, a 5% year - on - year decrease. In November 2025, China's solar - cell output was 73.49 million kilowatts, a 7.8% year - on - year increase; the integrated - circuit output was 43.9 million pieces, a 15.6% year - on - year increase [60][65][70][75][79]. 8. Import and Export In November 2025, China imported 15,000 tons of tin ore, with a significant month - on - month increase; imported 1,194 tons of tin ingots; and exported 2,045 tons of refined tin and alloys [83]. 9. Supply - Demand Table The table shows the production, demand, and supply - demand balance of tin from 2018 to 2026E, including China's production, overseas production, global supply, China's demand, overseas demand, global demand, and global supply - demand balance [86].