Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The current fundamentals of nickel are weak, but the contradiction in the ore end and cost support limit the downward elasticity of Shanghai nickel. Stainless steel prices are under pressure from marginal inventory accumulation, but the raw material end contradiction restricts the downward space, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5][6]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon shows a weakly oscillating pattern with inventory accumulation and weakening downstream demand. Polysilicon has weak fundamentals and is affected by concentrated cancellation. The market is expected to pay attention to the impact of concentrated cancellation [29][30][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side news causes frequent disturbances. Although the market focuses on the approval progress of Zimbabwe, the increase in raw material shipments from Australia and Chile in April will supplement the raw materials. The downstream replenishment willingness is not strong in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [62][65]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: International oil prices dominate the palm oil market. The post - Eid al - Fitr origin structure has weakened, and the April production recovery degree will be a key factor for the annual market. The soybean oil market is affected by the US bio - fuel blending policy, and the price center is expected to return to the middle [84][85][88]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Soybean meal is oscillating and waiting for new drivers. Soybean has no driving force for the time being and the disk is oscillating. The market should pay attention to the April USDA supply and demand report, Sino - US trade progress, and South American weather [99][105]. - **Corn**: The corn market should focus on the inventory at the northern ports. The spot price has declined, and the futures price is affected by policy auction rumors and other factors. The price is expected to have a callback trend, but it is still a thinking of buying on dips [127][128][131]. - **Sugar**: Keep an eye on crude oil and maintain an oscillating and bullish thinking in the long term. The international sugar market is dominated by macro - drivers, and the domestic market is affected by import rhythm and cost [148][150][173]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures are expected to maintain a strong trend, and domestic cotton futures will maintain an oscillating trend. The market should focus on the new - year planting and relevant policies [175][176][190]. - **Hogs**: The de - stocking of hogs is less than expected, and the bottom has not appeared. The spot price is expected to continue to decline in April, and the LH2605 contract of futures should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [193][194]. - **Peanuts**: Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills. The peanut price has declined, and the futures are recommended to go long on dips. The market should pay attention to the digestion progress of the remaining goods in Henan in April and the impact of temperature on peanut indicators [205][206]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Situation**: Shanghai nickel is supported by marginal cost but limited by weak fundamentals. Stainless steel is under pressure from inventory accumulation and supported by raw material contradictions [5][6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 1,815 tons to 87,892 tons on April 3, and the LME inventory decreased by 78 tons to 281,496 tons. The inventory of the nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain decreased [7][8]. - **Market News**: There are many news about nickel mines in Indonesia, including the adjustment of the benchmark price, the restart of mines in other regions, and the change of production quotas [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trend**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices both declined. Industrial silicon is affected by downstream production cuts, and polysilicon is affected by weak demand and concentrated cancellation [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: Industrial silicon supply has partial复产, and demand has weakened. Polysilicon supply has decreased in the short term, and demand is also weak [30][31][33]. - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly, and polysilicon should pay attention to the impact of concentrated cancellation [34]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The futures price of lithium carbonate declined, and the spot price increased slightly. The basis weakened [61]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased, and demand has downstream replenishment. The inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks [62][63][64]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the supply - side news [65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's View**: Palm oil was affected by geopolitical situation and B50 news, and soybean oil was affected by crude oil and other factors [84]. - **This Week's View**: Palm oil is still dominated by energy prices, and the April production recovery is crucial. Soybean oil is affected by the US bio - fuel policy and South American weather [85][88]. - **Data**: The trading volume and price of palm oil and soybean oil futures have changed, and the inventory and export data of palm oil are also different [91]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week's Market**: The US soybean price oscillated, and the domestic soybean meal price was weak, while the soybean price was sideways [99][100]. - **Fundamentals**: The net sales of US soybeans decreased, the Brazilian soybean import cost decreased, and the US soybean planting area was slightly higher than expected [100]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and soybean are expected to oscillate, and pay attention to relevant reports and news [105]. Corn - **Market Review**: The corn spot price declined, and the futures price was affected by policy and inventory [127][128]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn declined, wheat price decreased, and corn starch inventory increased. Pay attention to the inventory at the northern ports [128][129][131]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: The international sugar price declined, and the domestic sugar price increased slightly. The net long position of funds increased [148][149]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The international sugar market is dominated by macro - drivers, and the domestic market should pay attention to import policies [150][173]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton reached a new high this year, and domestic cotton futures oscillated. The market should focus on new - year planting [175][176]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton planting area is expected to increase, and the export data is good. The domestic cotton price is slightly lower, and the downstream demand is weak [179][180][184]. Hogs - **This Week's Review**: The hog spot price was weak, and the futures price declined. The supply increased, and the demand was mainly for inventory [193]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The hog price is expected to continue to decline, and the LH2605 contract should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [193][194]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: The peanut spot price declined, and the futures price also decreased. The supply has certain pressure, and the demand is different for different types of peanuts [205]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips. Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills and the impact of temperature [206].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply last week was 78,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease week - on - week, and the demand remained sluggish. The cost support increased during the dry season. The industry is expected to be bearish, and the industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8535 - 8715 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply last week was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase week - on - week, and the March production schedule is predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase month - on - month. The overall demand shows a continuous decline. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 34,630 - 36,730 [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans for production cuts. The main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply but weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 78,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease week - on - week. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is in different states [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9,769.7 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On March 27, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 525 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 560,000 tons, a 1.27% increase week - on - week; the sample enterprise inventory was 191,100 tons, a 3.38% decrease week - on - week; the main port inventory was 134,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease week - on - week, which is bearish [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule increased, remaining at a low level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support increased. The industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8535 - 8715 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase week - on - week. The March production schedule is predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase month - on - month [9]. - Demand: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows different trends in the short and medium - term, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,060 yuan/ton, and the production income is - 310 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On March 27, the price of N - type dense material was 39,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 4,070 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 332,000 tons, a 3.48% decrease week - on - week, at a high level in the same period of history, which is bearish [9]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [9]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule continues to increase. The demand shows a short - term increase and a medium - term callback. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 34,630 - 36,730 [9]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed different degrees of decline or increase compared with the previous values. The spot prices of different types of silicon remained mostly unchanged. The inventory showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed different degrees of change. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable. The inventory decreased, and the export volume increased [16]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends: The report presents the trends of the basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon over a long - term period [18]. - Industrial silicon inventory: It shows the inventory trends of different regions and types of industrial silicon over a long - term period, including delivery warehouses and ports, and sample enterprises [21]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends: It shows the trends of weekly production, monthly production by specification, and the opening rate of sample enterprises in different regions over a long - term period [25]. - Industrial silicon component cost trends: It shows the trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in the main production areas over a long - term period [30]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends: It shows the cost trends of 421 and 553 silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan over a long - term period [33]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables: It shows the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon, including production, consumption, import, and export [37][40]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon: It shows the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and other downstream products of organic silicon over a long - term period [43]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) trends of aluminum alloy over a long - term period [55]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon: It shows the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components over a long - term period [65]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic accessories: It shows the price, import - export, and production trends of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, photovoltaic glass, and high - purity quartz sand over a long - term period [80]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - component cost - profit trends: It shows the cost and profit trends of components such as silicon material, silicon wafer, battery cell, and component in 210mm double - sided double - glass components [83]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic grid - connected power generation: It shows the trends of new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition, and new grid - connected capacity of photovoltaic power stations over a long - term period [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the asphalt market is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation. The asphalt 2606 contract is predicted to oscillate within the range of 4409 - 4655. The market is affected by multiple factors, including supply, demand, cost, and inventory. The supply pressure has been reduced recently due to refinery production cuts, but it may increase next week. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, affected by the off - season. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil, and the inventory shows a trend of continuous destocking [7]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: In April 2026, the total domestic asphalt production plan was 1.527 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 440,000 tons (22.4%) and a year - on - year decrease of 764,000 tons (33.3%). The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 20.4338%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 126,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.66%. The output of sample enterprises was 341,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.26%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.18%. Refineries have reduced production recently to relieve supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 19.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt was 5.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 3.1047%, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 14%, a month - on - month increase of 4.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 45%, a month - on - month increase of 9.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 497.43 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 69.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 844.9771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.86%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to provide short - term support [7]. - **Basis**: On March 27, the spot price in Shandong was 4330 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 202 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.214 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.59%; the in - factory inventory was 757,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.93%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 590,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.66%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - factory and port inventories continued to destock, which is bullish [7]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions, which is bullish [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, change, and basis information of multiple asphalt futures contracts, as well as the price information of some spot and related indicators such as registered warehouse receipts and monthly spreads [14][16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [18][20][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which is useful for spread trading analysis [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the price relationship between asphalt and crude oil [26][27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which is important for analyzing the profitability of refining [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the relative price relationship among these products [33][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the price changes in different regions [36][37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2018 to 2026 through graphs, which is important for analyzing the profit difference between different production processes [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the supply situation [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 through graphs, which is useful for analyzing the supply of raw materials [48][49]. - **Output**: The report shows the historical weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the overall supply capacity [51][53]. - **Marine Heavy Oil (Maro) Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The report shows the historical price of Maro crude oil and the monthly output of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2026 through graphs, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The report shows the historical output of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the supply contribution of local refineries [57][58]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2023 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the production efficiency [60][61]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: The report shows the historical estimated maintenance loss trends of asphalt from 2018 to 2026 through graphs, which is useful for analyzing the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [63][64]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [66][67][68]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the overall inventory situation [70][71]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2026 through graphs, which is important for analyzing the inventory management of refineries [73][74]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [76][77]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical import spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which is useful for analyzing the price difference in imports [80][81]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The report shows the historical output of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in related industries [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the overall market demand [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: The report shows the historical highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 through graphs, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [88][89]. - **New Local Special Bonds**: The report shows the historical trend of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which is important for analyzing the investment in infrastructure construction and the demand for asphalt [90]. - **Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The report shows the historical year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 through graphs, which helps to understand the growth of infrastructure investment and its impact on asphalt demand [90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, as well as the historical monthly working hours of excavators from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [92][93][94][96]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: The report shows the historical construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the demand for heavy - traffic asphalt [97][98]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical construction rates of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the demand for different types of asphalt [100]. - **Downstream Construction Situation**: The report shows the historical construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2021 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [101][102][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [105][106].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on soda ash and glass futures from March 30 to April 3, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. The spot market was stable last week with a stable price range and light trading. Supply was slightly affected by some enterprise maintenance, and demand was weak, with downstream buyers making rigid purchases and being cautious about high prices. The market lacks a clear driver and will continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Futures first declined and then rebounded, but high inventory and weak demand suppress the upside. It is recommended to wait and see [6] 2. Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The soda ash market had a loose supply - demand situation last week. Spot prices fell slightly, and futures declined. The expected positive factors did not materialize, and fundamental contradictions continued to suppress the price [9] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The soda ash spot was stable last week, with weak supply and demand, and prices continued to trade in a narrow range. Futures first declined and then rebounded, with cost support and weak demand in a tug - of - war, maintaining a volatile pattern [10] 3. Related Data - Data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存,基差, and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][19] - The main force of soda ash futures is slightly bullish, with a small outflow of main funds and low risk of a market reversal [24] Group 3: Glass Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Glass is in a volatile trend. The float glass market had a narrow - range adjustment last week, with regional differences. Prices in the Northwest and Southwest rose by 30 yuan/ton, while those in Central and North China fell slightly by 10 yuan/ton. Market trading cooled, and downstream buyers purchased on demand and were cautious about restocking. Cold repairs of some production lines supported prices, and inventory in different regions changed differently. Futures were weakly volatile, and the fundamentals dominated the market. Terminal demand did not show obvious improvement, and high inventory continued to suppress prices. Although there was a short - term rebound due to cost support, the sustainability was limited. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [33] 2. Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The float glass spot prices had mixed changes last week, with regional differences. High inventory and weak demand continued to suppress the market, and futures declined weakly. The expected positive factors did not materialize, and the weak pattern was hard to change [36] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The float glass market had a narrow - range adjustment last week, with regional differences. Downstream demand was mainly rigid, and inventory changed differently. Futures were weakly volatile, and high inventory limited the rebound [37] 3. Related Data - Data includes China's weekly float glass产量,开工率, production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel,基差, and期末库存 [39][42][44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures is mainly "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term view is "oscillating" [5][6][7] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: The domestic soybean meal market has a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, with the futures price slightly lower and showing a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength [5] - **Driving Factors**: The US soybean futures price is oscillating. The US soybean export sales exceed expectations, and the cost of imported soybeans still provides support. The domestic oil mills' shutdown arrangements and reluctance to sell support the spot and near - month contracts, but the expectation of a huge amount of Brazilian soybeans arriving in April - May suppresses the far - month prices. The downstream's stocking mentality is cautious. The Middle East situation disturbs the US soybean pricing through the bio - fuel chain, and Brazil's record - high production increases the long - term supply pressure [5] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the market is disturbed by macro - sentiment and cost. After the previous risk premium is withdrawn, trading becomes cautious before the USDA report. The soybean meal futures price mainly operates in an oscillating and weakly manner, and attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of Brazilian soybeans and policy dynamics [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: The palm oil futures price has continued to be strong recently [7] - **Driving Factors**: External market boosts, high - level operation of international oil prices strengthens the bio - fuel demand expectation, export data is strong (shipment agencies show that the export of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 25 increased by 38.4% - 50.6% month - on - month), and the weakening of the ringgit exchange rate increases the attractiveness to foreign currency buyers. At the same time, the Indonesian government is considering raising the export fee in April, which may affect the supply rhythm. However, India's palm oil imports in March may drop from 848,000 tons in February to 680,000 tons, and the purchasing willingness weakens [7] - **Outlook**: Geopolitical factors, export, and bio - fuel expectations support the palm oil to operate at a high level. Affected by the international oil market, the short - term palm oil futures price fluctuates more sharply at a high level [7] Soybean Oil - **Driving Factors**: Energy attributes, US bio - fuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, cost support of imported soybeans, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the downstream industry's resistance to high prices, PVC futures fluctuated widely and declined week - on - week. As of March 27, 2026, V2605 closed at 5,615 yuan/ton, down 4.43% from the previous week [8]. - On the supply side, Yantai Wanhua restarted and some device loads were adjusted upwards. The PVC production capacity utilization rate increased by 0.80% week - on - week to 80.92%. The calcium carbide process start - up rate increased by 0.52% week - on - week to 85.24%, and the ethylene process start - up rate increased by 1.46% week - on - week to 70.70% [8]. - On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate of PVC increased by 4.3% week - on - week to 45.96%, and the pipe start - up rate increased by 2% week - on - week to 41.2% [8]. - In terms of inventory, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.20% week - on - week to 1.374 million tons, and the inventory level remained high [8]. - In terms of cost, the calcium carbide price increased this week. The average national cost of the calcium carbide process increased by 2.62% week - on - week to 5,533 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as ethylene and VCM increased, driving the cost of the ethylene process to increase by 7.84% week - on - week to 7,867 yuan/ton. The profit of the calcium carbide process decreased by 228 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 35 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene process decreased by 322 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 778 yuan/ton [8]. - Looking ahead, the ethylene process plants in China continue to reduce their loads due to raw material supply. Calcium carbide process enterprises may postpone their maintenance plans to seize the profit window. PVC supply is not expected to decline significantly. The downstream start - up rate continues to increase seasonally, but the lack of orders from product enterprises and the resistance to high prices suppress the overall demand for PVC. Overseas ethylene process plants have shut down due to raw material shortages, and the improvement of the export side may depend on the duration of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, the price support of domestic supply and demand for PVC has weakened. In the short term, V2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support around 5,200 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: PVC futures fluctuated widely and declined week - on - week. V2605 closed at 5,615 yuan/ton, down 4.43% from the previous week [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side capacity utilization increased, demand - side start - up rate increased, inventory increased slightly, cost increased, and profit decreased [8]. - Outlook: PVC supply is not expected to decline significantly, demand is suppressed, and the export improvement depends on geopolitical factors. Short - term V2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - Futures price: V2605 declined week - on - week [9]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts decreased week - on - week [9]. - Position: The position of the 05 contract decreased week - on - week [13]. - Spread: The 5 - 9 spread decreased week - on - week [13]. 3.3 Spot Market - Import and export prices: CFR China and Southeast Asia quotes increased by 10 US dollars to 1,060 US dollars/ton, and the Indian quote remained unchanged at 1,050 US dollars/ton [19][23]. - Domestic prices: The spot price of calcium carbide process in East China decreased, while the spot price of ethylene process increased significantly [26]. - Basis: The basis fluctuated widely, and the spot was slightly at a discount [31]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Lanthanum charcoal and calcium carbide: The prices of lanthanum charcoal and calcium carbide increased week - on - week. The start - up rate of lanthanum charcoal was 55.44%, and the start - up rate of calcium carbide was 68.46% [35][40]. - EDC and VCM: The CIF intermediate price of VCM was 920 US dollars/ton, and the international price of EDC was 351 US dollars/ton [44]. 3.5 Industry Chain Situation - Supply: In 2026, only 300,000 tons of PVC plants were put into production. The output in February was 1.9851 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The production capacity utilization rate increased week - on - week [48][52]. - Demand: The pipe start - up rate was 39.2%, the profile start - up rate was 34.35%. The export volume of PVC floor products was 393,200 tons in January and 322,300 tons in March [55][59]. - Import and export: The import volume was 14,000 tons in January and 8,500 tons in February. The export volume was 285,500 tons in January and 312,100 tons in February [62]. - Inventory: The PVC social inventory increased week - on - week, and the inventory level was high [67]. - Cost: The cost of the calcium carbide process and the ethylene process increased week - on - week [71]. - Profit: The profit of the calcium carbide process and the ethylene process decreased week - on - week [79]. 3.6 Options Market - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 52.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 47.39% [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 78,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The cost support in the Xinjiang region remained stable, with the cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon at 9,769.7 yuan/ton. The social inventory increased by 1%, and the sample enterprise inventory increased by 27%. The main port inventory decreased by 1.47%. - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 69,000 tons, a 47% week - on - week increase. The silicon wafer production was in a loss state, while the battery cell and component production were in a profitable state. The organic silicon inventory was at a low level, with a production profit of 2,503 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工 rate of 68.6%, remaining flat week - on - week but lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was at a high level, and the regenerative aluminum开工 rate increased by 1.5% to 59%. - Expectation: With an increase in supply scheduling and a low - level demand recovery, and rising cost support, the industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,645 - 8,825 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 19,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The scheduled production for March is expected to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase compared to the previous month. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.78 GW, a 1.66% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory was 276,500 tons, a 2.46% week - on - week decrease. Currently, the silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The scheduled production for March is 49.01 GW, a 10.70% increase compared to the previous month. The battery cell production in February was 37.09 GW, a 10.49% month - on - month decrease. The external sales factory inventory of battery cells last week was 6.79 GW, a 16.66% week - on - week increase, and the current production is in a profitable state. The scheduled production for March is 46.36 GW, a 24.99% increase. The component production in February was 29.3 GW, a 16.76% month - on - month decrease. The expected component production for March is 41.39 GW, a 41.26% increase. The domestic monthly inventory decreased by 51.73%, and the European monthly inventory increased by 12.30%. Currently, the component production is in a profitable state. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,060 yuan/ton, with a production income of - 310 yuan/ton. - Expectation: With continuous increase in supply scheduling and overall demand showing a continuous decline, and weakening cost support, the polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 34,505 - 36,575 yuan/ton [8][9]. Overall - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans for production suspension and reduction. - Bearish factors: Slow post - holiday demand recovery and a situation of strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - Industrial Silicon: Analyzes the supply, demand, cost, inventory, and other aspects of industrial silicon, and provides an expected price fluctuation range [6]. - Polysilicon: Analyzes the supply, demand, cost, and other aspects of polysilicon, and provides an expected price fluctuation range [8][9]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial Silicon: Presents data on the price, inventory, production, and开工 rate of industrial silicon, as well as the price, production, and inventory data of its downstream organic silicon and aluminum alloy [14]. - Polysilicon: Presents data on the price, inventory, production, and demand of polysilicon, as well as the price, production, and inventory data of its downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15]. Other Sections - Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: Displays the trends of the basis and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon [17]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: Shows the inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions and ports [20]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends: Presents the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon in different regions [24]. - Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends: Displays the trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and reducing agent prices in the main production areas [29]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends: Shows the cost trends of 421 and 553 silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [32]. - Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the weekly supply - demand balance data of industrial silicon [36]. - Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of industrial silicon [39]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC Price and Production Trends: Displays the price, production, and capacity utilization trends of DMC [42]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - Downstream Price Trends: Shows the price trends of 107 glue, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [44]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - Import - Export and Inventory Trends: Presents the import - export and inventory data of DMC [49]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation: Displays the price, supply, and import - export data of aluminum alloy [54]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Inventory and Production Trends: Presents the inventory and production data of aluminum alloy ingots [57]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Demand (Automobiles and Wheel Hubs): Shows the production and sales data of automobiles and the export data of aluminum alloy wheel hubs [60]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends: Displays the cost, price, inventory, production, and demand trends of polysilicon [64]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of polysilicon [67]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Silicon Wafer Trends: Shows the price, production, inventory, and demand data of silicon wafers [70]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Battery Cell Trends: Displays the price, production, inventory, and export data of battery cells [73]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Component Trends: Presents the price, inventory, production, and export data of photovoltaic components [76]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Accessory Trends: Shows the price, production, and import - export data of photovoltaic accessories [79]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm): Displays the cost and profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [82]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends: Presents the trends of new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and photovoltaic power station grid - connected capacity [83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report indicates that although export demand provides bottom support, the lack of domestic terminal purchasing enthusiasm restricts the upward price space. Considering the continuous reduction of futures positions and technical pressure signs, the market may remain range - bound in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on the steel mill start - up rate and downstream order data to be released tomorrow [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market On March 25, 2026, the closing price of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2605 was 3313 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous settlement price. The opening price was 3324 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3340 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3304 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 302,300 lots, and the open interest was 1,003,100 lots, a decrease of 21,200 lots from the previous trading day. The market showed a narrow - range shock consolidation trend with a small outflow of funds [2]. 3.2现货市场 On March 25, the overall spot price of hot - rolled coils in the country was stable. The average national price of hot - rolled coils was 3327 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot market showed a stable - to - strong pattern, but the actual transaction follow - up was insufficient [3]. 3.3影响因素 - **产业资讯**: This week, the total domestic hot - rolled coil production was about 3.4175 million tons, an increase of 47,000 tons from last week. The capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coil rolling lines was 83.35%, an increase of 1.14 percentage points. The inventory of sample steel mills was about 811,800 tons, a decrease of 39,200 tons from last week. The average number of days of orders on hand for steel mills was 29 days, the same as last week. Hot - rolled coil production has entered a small - scale production increase cycle, and steel mills still have certain marginal profits, with the capacity utilization rate operating at a relatively high level [4]. - **技术分析**: The price is currently running near the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages, and the short - term moving average system shows a long - position arrangement but with a gentle slope. The trading volume remains at around 300,000 lots, and the open interest is stable at the 1 - million - lot level, with moderate market participation. From the perspective of volatility, the recent price fluctuation range has narrowed, indicating strong market wait - and - see sentiment and waiting for a directional breakthrough. The technical side as a whole shows a shock consolidation pattern, and the short - term direction is unclear [5]. 3.4行情展望 In the short term, the market may remain range - bound. Key attention should be paid to the steel mill start - up rate and downstream order data to be released tomorrow [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides an in - depth analysis of the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, including supply, demand, cost, inventory, and price trends. It also offers expectations for the future price ranges of industrial silicon 2605 and polysilicon 2605 [3][8]. - The main logic for the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, such as cost - rising support and slow post - holiday demand recovery [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous week. The supply production schedule is expected to increase, but it remains at a low level [3][6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 69,000 tons, a 1.47% increase compared to the previous week. The demand recovery is at a low level. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers are in a loss state, while battery cells and components are in a profitable state. The organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 2,503 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 68.6% (flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average). The aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, and the recycled aluminum operating rate is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous week. The cost support increases during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On March 25th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 380 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 553,000 tons, a 0.18% increase compared to the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory is 197,800 tons, a 0.36% increase compared to the previous week. The main port inventory is 136,000 tons, a 1.49% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closes above MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreases [6]. - **Expectation**: Industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,680 - 8,860 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 19,000 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous week. The production schedule for March is predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.78GW, a 1.66% decrease compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 276,500 tons, a 2.46% decrease compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for March is 49.01GW, a 10.70% increase compared to the previous month. The battery cell production in February was 37.09GW, a 10.49% decrease compared to the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 6.79GW, a 16.66% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, battery cell production is in a profitable state. The production schedule for March is 46.36GW, a 24.99% increase compared to the previous month. The component production in February was 29.3GW, a 16.76% decrease compared to the previous month. The expected component production in March is 41.39GW, a 41.26% increase compared to the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease compared to the previous month, and the European monthly inventory is 38.41GW, a 12.30% increase compared to the previous month. Currently, component production is in a profitable state [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,260 yuan/ton, and the production profit is - 1,260 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On March 25th, the price of N - type dense material was 39,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3,750 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 344,000 tons, a 3.64% decrease compared to the previous week, and it is at a high level in the same period of history [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closes below MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position decreases [8]. - **Expectation**: Polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 35,735 - 37,765 [8]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The report shows the price changes of different contracts of industrial silicon futures, spot prices, basis, inventory, production, and other data [14]. Polysilicon - It presents the price changes of different contracts of polysilicon futures, prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products, as well as inventory, production, and export data [15]. 3. Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon [17][18]. 4. Inventory - It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, as well as the number of registered warrants [20][21][22]. 5. Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - It shows the historical trends of the weekly production of industrial silicon sample enterprises, monthly production by specification, and the operating rate of sample enterprises [24][25][26]. 6. Component Cost Trends - It shows the historical trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in the main production areas of industrial silicon [29][30]. 7. Cost - Sample Region Trends - It shows the historical cost trends of 421/553 silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [32][33][34]. 8. Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon show the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [36][39][40]. 9. Downstream - Organic Silicon - **DMC Price and Production Trends**: It shows the historical trends of DMC capacity utilization, profit, cost, production, and price [42][43]. - **Downstream Price Trends**: It shows the historical price trends of 107 glue, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [44][45][46][47]. - **Import - Export and Inventory Trends**: It shows the historical trends of DMC import, export, and inventory [49][50][52]. 10. Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply Situation**: It shows the historical trends of waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit [54][55]. - **Inventory and Production Trends**: It shows the historical trends of the monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [57][58]. - **Demand (Automobiles and Wheel Hubs)**: It shows the historical trends of automobile monthly production, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel hub export [60][61]. 11. Downstream - Polysilicon - **Fundamental Trends**: It shows the historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, monthly operating rate, and monthly demand [64][65]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon, including consumption, export, import, supply, and balance [67][68]. - **Silicon Wafer Trends**: It shows the historical trends of silicon wafer price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export [70][71]. - **Battery Cell Trends**: It shows the historical trends of single - crystal P/N type battery cell price, battery cell production scheduling and actual production, photovoltaic battery external sales factory weekly inventory, photovoltaic battery operating rate, and battery cell export [73][74]. - **Photovoltaic Component Trends**: It shows the historical trends of component price, domestic and European photovoltaic component inventory, monthly production, and component export [76][77]. - **Photovoltaic Accessory Trends**: It shows the historical trends of photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import - export, photovoltaic glass monthly production, export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export [79][80]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm)**: It shows the cost and profit trends of silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in 210mm double - sided double - glass components [82]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends**: It shows the historical trends of the national new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation [83][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Under the superposition of multiple positive factors, the methanol market is expected to maintain a strong short - term operation. Inland methanol is expected to remain firm, and the port market is expected to continue to be strong this week. The current methanol has shown a leading trend in the chemical market. Future attention should be paid to whether the US will withdraw troops from the Middle East and the sustainability of MTO profits. Once there are signs of the end of the war, the driving logic will change rapidly. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 3060 - 3350 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are positive in the short - term. The base - difference shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory has decreased, which is bearish. The price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 3060 - 3350 [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Some devices have stopped or reduced their loads, such as Inner Mongolia Heima and Shanxi Zhongxin. - The methanol production in Iran is at a low level, and the methanol imports in February are expected to continue to shrink. - The methanol factories in the production areas have actively reduced their inventories, and the current inventory is low, with some enterprises even limiting sales. - Some downstream users continue to stock up before the Spring Festival [6]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply. - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as formaldehyde gradually stop production for holidays, weakening the demand for raw materials. - The main olefin devices at the port have stopped, and the local demand has weakened significantly. - Most downstream users have completed their pre - holiday stockpiling, and the phased demand has weakened [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price Data - In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region remained unchanged at 687 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol in various regions showed different changes. For example, the price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased from 3145 yuan/ton to 3050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased from 3182 yuan/ton to 3132 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [8]. - The weekly changes in domestic methanol spot prices showed that the prices in Jiangsu, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian increased by 7.96%, 4.27%, 7.18%, and 6.84% respectively, while the price in Shandong remained unchanged [9]. - The weekly changes in methanol futures prices increased by 11.66%, and the basis changed from - 37 yuan/ton to - 82 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3.2 Production Profit Data - The weekly profit of coal - based methanol production increased from 345 yuan/ton to 455 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton. The profit of natural - gas - based methanol production remained at - 40 yuan/ton. The profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol production decreased from 643 yuan/ton to 601 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton [21]. 3.3.3 Production Capacity Utilization Data - The national weighted average production capacity utilization rate of methanol decreased from 78.71% to 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81 percentage points. The production capacity utilization rate in the northwest region decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55 percentage points [8]. 3.3.4 Inventory Data - As of March 19, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 82.67 tons, a decrease of 5.39 tons compared with the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) decreased by 5.43 tons to 44.15 tons [5]. - The inventory in the East China port decreased from 54.80 tons to 51.07 tons, a decrease of 3.73 tons, and the inventory in the South China port decreased from 33.26 tons to 31.60 tons, a decrease of 1.66 tons [8]. 3.3.5 External Market Price and Spread Data - The CFR price of methanol in China decreased from 411 US dollars/ton to 382 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 29 US dollars/ton. The CFR price of methanol in Southeast Asia increased from 552 US dollars/ton to 557 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The spread between China and Southeast Asia decreased from - 141 US dollars/ton to - 175 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 34 US dollars/ton [8]. - The import cost of methanol decreased from 3459 yuan/ton to 3219 yuan/ton, a decrease of 241 yuan/ton. The import spread decreased from 277 yuan/ton to 8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 191 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3.6 Downstream Product Data - The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether remained unchanged, while the price of acetic acid increased from 3200 yuan/ton to 3300 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.13% [29]. - The production profit of formaldehyde decreased from - 231 yuan/ton to - 276 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton, and the production capacity utilization rate increased slightly from 30.97% to 30.98%. The production profit of dimethyl ether decreased from 227 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan/ton, and the production capacity utilization rate increased from 8.34% to 9.79%. The production profit of acetic acid decreased from 446 yuan/ton to 423 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton, and the production capacity utilization rate decreased from 73.61% to 72.32% [33][36][41]. - The production profit of MTO decreased from - 3040 yuan/ton to - 3760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 720 yuan/ton, and the production capacity utilization rate decreased from 86.45% to 84.18% [46]. 3.4 Maintenance Status 3.4.1 Domestic Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in the process of maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. The maintenance time and loss vary by enterprise [55]. 3.4.2 Overseas Device Operation - The operation status of overseas methanol production devices varies. Some Iranian devices are in the process of restarting, and some devices in other countries are operating normally or at a low level [56]. 3.4.3 Olefin Device Operation - The operation status of domestic olefin devices also varies. Some devices are in normal operation, some are in maintenance, and some have low loads [57].