农产品日报 | 2026-01-09 郑棉期价高位回落，白糖延续窄幅震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14740元/吨，较前一日变动-295元/吨，幅度-1.96%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15738元/吨，较前一日变动+164元/吨，现货基差CF05+998，较前一日变动+459；3128B棉全国均价15992元/ 吨，较前一日变动+208元/吨，现货基差CF05+1252，较前一日变动+503。 近期市场资讯，12月巴西棉出口量为45.2万吨，环比（40.2万吨）增加12.4%，同比（35.3万吨）增加28.2%，为有 记录以来最大出口量。从当月出口目的地看，中国是主要出口目的地，出口量占总量的32%；孟加拉其次，占比18%； 巴基斯坦排第三，占比10%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价高位回落。国际方面，12月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产需双减， 期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当前北半球新棉集中 上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，美棉出口签约进度整体仍偏慢，短期IC ...

【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期货主力合约日内高开下行小幅收跌。基本面上,丙烯需求跟进良好,生产企业出货较为顺畅,部分企业 实单竞拍溢价情况犹存,市场成交气氛保持。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内震荡整理。聚乙烯方面，市场情绪维持偏强，下游工厂入市补库，生产企业部 分上调出厂价,市场价格重心维持上移,低价成交尚可。聚丙烯方面,石化报盘积极跟涨,因前期石化积极预 售,当前可售现货资源不多,叠加拉丝标品供应持续收紧,商家报盘锁利,加之下游工厂存刚需补库预期,价 格获得一定支撑。 【纯苯-苯乙烯】 统苯期货主力合约小幅回落，山东市场成交转弱。进口量充足延续，江苏港口库存持续累积。国内供应有所增 加，下游需求小幅提升。短期纯苯预计延续震荡运行,关注地缘风险犹动；远月统苯预计减产，去库预期下, 中线考虑逢低介入月差正套。 苯乙烯期货主力合约继续在半年线压制下横盘整理,短期缺乏方向指引。基本面上,下游随行就市,现货采购 按需,整体表现良好,出口2月商谈仍在继续。苯乙烯生产企业产销平稳,合约出货稳定,库存继续下降。但原 料纯苯继续累库,成本弱势对苯乙烯反弹形成压制。基本面多空博弈价格延续整理。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2026年1月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 3 3、库存: 社会库存为55.7万吨，环比增加0.36%,样本企业库存为202400吨，环比增 加3.48%,主要港口库存为14万吨，环比持平。 偏空。 4、盘面: MA20向上，05合约期价收于MA20上方。 偏多。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净空，空减。 偏空。 6、预期: 供给端排产有所减少，持续处于高位，需求复苏处于低位，成本支撑有所 上升。工业硅2605：在8865-9095区间震荡。 每日观点——多晶硅 供给端来看，多晶硅上周产量为24000吨，环比减少5.13%,预测1月排产为10.78万吨，较上 月产量环比减少6.66%。 需求端来看，上周硅片产量为10.18GW,环比减少1.45%,库存为23.19万吨，环比增加 6.91%,目前硅片生产为亏损状态，1月排产为45.2GW,较上月产量43.9GW，环比增加 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2026-1-8 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润修复乏力，冷修增多，供给进一步收缩；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱， 库存同期历史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货924元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1148元/吨，基差为-224元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5686.60万重量箱，较前一周减少3.00%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面仍疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、玻璃生产利润低位，行业存在进一步冷修预期。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工 ...

2 基本面/持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2026年1月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为8 . | 7万吨 环比持平 ， 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为7 3万吨 . | 环比减少5 19% ， . . | 需求持续低迷 . | | | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为30 6万吨 . | 处于中性水平 ， ， | 硅片亏损 电池片亏损 ， | 组件盈 ， | | | | | | | | 利 有机硅库存为 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 6 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（1 月 5 日）A 股喜迎 2026 开门红，沪指 12 连阳，重新站上 4000 点大关。截止收盘， 沪指涨 1.38%，收报 4023.42 点；深证成指涨 2.24%，收报 13828.63 点；创业板指涨 2.85%，收报 3294.55 点。 沪深两市成交额达到 25675 亿，较上一交易日大幅放量 5016 亿。 【郑糖】受美糖走低与现货报价下调等因素影响郑糖 2605 月合约早盘震荡下跌，后受股市大幅走高提振资 金作用期价震荡回升收盘小涨。夜盘，郑糖 2605 月合约波动不大窄幅震荡小幅收高。一项大宗商品研究结果显 示，预计泰国 2025/26 年度甘蔗产量为 9,300 万吨，预估区间介于 7,800–10,800 万吨。（数据来源：文华综合） 【胶】因东南亚产胶旺季进入下半场现货供应压力降逐渐减轻，加之委内瑞拉政局动荡影响东南亚现货报价 震荡走高，受此提振资金作用沪胶周一震荡上行。夜盘，受资金作用沪胶震荡小幅走高。最新数据显示，2025 年前 11 个月，泰国出口天然橡胶（不含复合橡胶 ...

金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 0 1 / 0 5 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价5030元/吨，较前一交易日下跌67元/吨。受委内瑞拉局势影响成本端布伦特原油下跌至60美元/桶左 右；PTA产能利用率较上一工作日持平至77.41%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.65天，环比增加0.04天。 主力动向：多空主力分歧 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 走势预期：PTA供应端有增量预期，下游聚酯负荷也从高位下调，供需格局相较之前转向宽松；关注聚酯工厂节前提前放假情况，终 端需求或将转弱。对上游PX的市场一致看法供需偏紧，预计PTA价格跟随成本端高位震荡。 MEG 主力合约：1月5日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2605下跌2.51%，基差走弱至-126元/吨。 基本面：今日乙二醇华东地区市场价3640元/吨，较前一交易日下跌38元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with high inventories and strong cost support at the bottom. The market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the northern operating rate [2]. - The polysilicon market also shows weak supply and demand, with inventory pressure still existing. However, due to strong price support in the market and downstream market games, it is expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term [3]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of January 4, 2026, the price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 421 oxygen - passed was 9,050 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week. The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated at a low level, closing at 8,860 yuan/ton on December 31 [2][7]. - **Supply**: In early January, some production capacities in Xinjiang were cut, and the output decreased month - on - month. The operating rate in Yunnan remained stable, and that in Sichuan slightly decreased. Overall, the output of industrial silicon continued to decline month - on - month [2][16]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of polysilicon was basically stable, and the output in December increased slightly month - on - month. In January, some enterprises planned to reduce the load or production, and the scheduled production was expected to decline. The output change of organic silicon was limited, and there was still a possibility of decline under the background of emission reduction and price support. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises was basically stable. In November, the export of industrial silicon was 54,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22% and a year - on - year increase of 4% [2]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [2]. - **Inventory**: As of December 31, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in the country was 557,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week [2]. - **Price Difference**: As of January 4, 2026, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The price difference between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 250 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week [11]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of January 4, 2026, the price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated and corrected at a high level, closing at 57,920 yuan/ton on December 31 [3][14]. - **Supply**: The expected output of polysilicon in December was 114,500 tons. In January, a small number of enterprises planned to reduce the load or production, and the scheduled production was expected to decline month - on - month [3]. - **Demand**: Recently, there was an obvious game in the polysilicon market, with more inquiries from downstream. Under the influence of the establishment of the polysilicon production capacity integration platform and the expected sales restriction in January, leading enterprises strongly supported the price. Downstream silicon wafer enterprises increased the production reduction intensity, and maintained rigid demand procurement in the short term. Enterprises with low inventory increased the procurement intensity. In November, the import volume of polysilicon was 1,055.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27%; the export volume was 3,230.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 109% [3]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of January 2, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 287,800 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from last week [3][22]. Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafer**: As of January 4, 2026, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.375, 1.375, 1.475, and 1.65 yuan/piece respectively, a week - on - week increase of 0.05, 0.05, 0.075, and 0.05 yuan/piece respectively. The price of the silicon wafer market strengthened, and the transaction increased significantly compared with the previous period [26]. - **Battery Chip**: As of January 4, 2026, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.38 yuan/watt respectively, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/watt. The battery chips were strongly pulled up by cost drivers [30]. - **Component**: As of January 4, 2026, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon, and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.685, 0.705, 0.685, and 0.705 yuan/watt respectively, unchanged from last week. The cost of components increased, and enterprises successively raised their quotes, but the overall transaction was weak in the off - season at the end of the year, showing a situation of high prices but few transactions [33]. Organic Silicon - **Price and Operation**: As of January 4, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The offers of mainstream monomer factories of organic silicon remained stable. The raw material inventories of some downstream silicone rubber and silicone oil enterprises were gradually consumed, and the inquiry and procurement increased. The operating rate change was not large in January, and it was expected to weaken [35][37]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Operation**: As of December 31, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 22,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 400 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises was stable, and they purchased at low prices as needed [41].

何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 合成橡胶产业日报 2026-01-05 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 检修安排，4号左右逐步恢复，本周轮胎企业产能利用率或有小幅回升。br2603合约短线预计在11400-120 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 00区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11645 | 125 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 40237 | -1024 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差( ...

国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（12 月 31 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指 11 连阳收官。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.09%， 收报 3968.84 点；深证成指跌 0.58%，收报 13525.02 点；创业板指跌 1.23%，收报 3203.17 点。沪深两市成交额 20659 亿，较昨日缩量 958 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 31 日回调整理。收盘 4629.94，环比下跌 21.34。（数据来源：东方财富网） 客服产品系列•日评 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 31 日焦炭加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1691.8，环比下跌 18.5。 12 月 31 日焦煤加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 1112.5 元，环比上涨 8.1。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭现货三轮提降落地后，焦企出现小幅亏损，叠加前期环保检查影响，钢联数据显示上周样本焦企 产能利用率下降，焦炭日均产量下滑。需求，钢联数据显示钢厂铁水产量环比继续下降，但周度降幅收窄。 焦煤：临近年末，因完成生产任务减产煤矿数量增加，高频数据显示矿方开工率持续下降，国内煤炭供应环 比 ...