2025年08月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：JH会议鲍威尔放鸽 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲顶前高 | 2 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：窄幅震荡 | 6 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：波动收敛 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：窄幅区间震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：短线低位震荡 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 26 日 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 黄金：JH 会议鲍威尔放鸽 白银：冲顶前高 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收 ...

【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2025.8.25 目录 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡） 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025.8.22 2025.8.15 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | | 2025.8.22 2025.8.15 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2509 | 78690 | 79060 | -370 | -0. 47% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 78825 | 79170 | -345 | -0. 44% | | 品 | AL2510 | 20630 | 20770 | -140 | -0. 67% | 中国:平均价:铝(A00):有色市场 | 20750 | 20680 | 70 | 0. 34% | | 锌 | ZN2510 | 22275 | 22505 | -230 | -1. 02% ...

期货市场交易指引 南华商品指数 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 09 空头看待 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间交易或观望 | | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 ◆铝： | | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 09 合约空头持有 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： ...

2025 年 8 月 25 日 股指期货将震荡偏强 焦煤、燃料油、白银、铁矿石、玻璃 期货将震荡偏强 黄金、螺纹钢、纯碱期货将偏强震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡偏强：IF2509 阻力位 4500 和 4550 点，支撑位 4394 和 4360 点；IH2509 阻力位 3000 和 3030 点，支撑位 2942 和 2930 点；IC2509 阻力位 6950 和 7050 点，支撑位 6810 和 6750 点；IM2509 阻力位 755 ...

2025年08月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：JH会议鲍威尔放鸽 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲顶前高 | 2 | | 铜：美元回落，价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：累库放缓 | 11 | | 氧化铝：横盘小涨 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：窄幅区间震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：短线低位震荡 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 黄金：JH 会议鲍威尔放鸽 白银：冲顶前高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 ...

文字早评 2025/08/25 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、工信部：将有序引导算力设施建设 加快突破 GPU 芯片等关键核心技术； 2、《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法》发布，办法规定国家对稀土开采和冶炼分离实 行总量调控管理; 3、光伏行业协会倡议，坚决抵制以低于成本的价格开展恶性竞争，坚决抵制违反市场经济规律和法律 法规盲目扩产增产； 4、美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，形势表明美国就业下行风险上升。风险平衡 的变化可能构成调整政策的理由。鲍威尔称，美联储对降息持开放态度。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.37%/0.22%/-0.07%/-0.61%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.18%/-0.77%/-1.96%/-3.74%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.19%/-0.83%/-2.31%/-4.44%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.46%/0.32%/0.54%/0.63%。 交易逻辑：中央政治局会议强调增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头， 进一步确认了政策对资本市场的呵护态度。近期持续上涨后 ...

有色金属日报 2025-8-25 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价先抑后扬，伦铜收涨 0.5%至 9809 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 79110 元/吨。产业层面，上 周三大交易所库存环比减少 0.04 万吨，其中上期所库存减少 0.5 至 8.2 万吨，LME 库存微增至 15.6 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 0.4 至 24.6 万吨。上海保税区库存增加 0.6 ...

【锌】 沪锌回踩前低,下游逢低采买情绪好转,SMM锌社库咯降至13.29万吨,空头少量止盈,对价格形成支撑。消费 淡季叠加部分地区下游减产影响,基本面供增需弱格局不改。"金九银十"旺季临近,政策面存乐观预期，短 期震荡看待,中线维持反弹空配思路。近期资金僵持,期权IV极低,暂观望,等待合适的空头位置。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月22日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | な☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 错 | な女女 | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | な女女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and the domestic spot import window remained open. US economic data reduced market bets on consecutive Fed rate cuts, and Trump's claim of a US - EU trade deal is beneficial for reducing the US trade deficit. LME copper inventory remained stable, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. As the seasonal off - season nears its end, downstream orders are expected to pick up, and the low scrap copper开工 rate is conducive to refined copper substitution. The copper market is in a balanced state between bulls and bears, waiting for external factors to break the current oscillation [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The fundamental support for alumina weakened, but short - term deep declines are limited. As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the pressure from short - sellers may ease. The increase in aluminum ingot casting volume and early restocking by some end - user sectors have led to an uneven inventory build - up. Electrolytic aluminum continues to follow a "time - for - space" rhythm [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories increased. The cost support for stainless steel remains, and the nickel iron transaction price center has shifted upward. Overall, the nickel market fundamentals have changed little and are in an oscillatory state [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The US 8 - month Markit composite PMI initial value was 55.4, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, and the service PMI initial value was 55.4. LME copper inventory was 156,350 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,052 tons to 246,480 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 66 tons to 25,157 tons, and BC copper decreased by 599 tons to 6,125 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 3,151 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase, AL2510 closed at 20,720 yuan/ton with a 0.58% increase, and AD2511 closed at 20,230 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3,244 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot was at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.7% to 14,940 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.36% to 119,760 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons to 209,598 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 29 tons to 22,588 tons [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On August 21, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 78,760 yuan/ton, and the premium was 120 yuan/ton. The 1 bright scrap copper price in Guangdong remained at 73,100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained unchanged at 156,350 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 66 tons to 25,157 tons, and the total domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 21.8 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,740 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous day. LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 279,600 tons, and SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 1,481 tons to 59,422 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi aluminum price was 20,720 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai price was 20,630 yuan/ton. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 479,525 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 3,048 tons to 59,890 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons to 6.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 122,350 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons to 209,598 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 29 tons to 22,588 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price was 22,285 yuan/ton, up 0.3%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,875 tons to 69,375 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.24 million tons to 11.74 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price was 267,650 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. LME tin inventory increased by 25 tons to 1,740 tons, and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased by 71 tons to 7,258 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless steel smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and has published dozens of professional articles [49]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [49]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [50].

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年08月21日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 有色板块集体小幅反弹，建议暂时观望或少量逢高加空，09合约上 方压力区间21000-21200，下方支撑区间20000-20200，可买入 虚值看跌期权做保护。氧化铝现货价格小幅下跌，在产产能增加， 消息影响发酵过后盘面回落，建议逢高可适量 ...