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2025年11月24日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，限制价格回落 | 8 | | 锡：高位回落 | 9 | | 铝：关注下方支撑 | 11 | | 氧化铝：基本面压力仍在 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 | 13 | | 不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 黄金：降息预期回升 白银：震荡调整 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | 沪金2512 | 昨日收盘价 932.56 | 日涨幅 -0.47% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 933.90 | 夜盘涨幅 -0.66% | ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. In the short - term, due to the unclear prospect of a December interest rate cut, the prices will likely continue to fluctuate and adjust, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range [3]. - **Copper**: The intraday procurement and sales sentiment has increased, and the spot price has risen while the premium has weakened. The copper price faces pressure at 86,500 - 86,600. Given the weak impact of the unemployment data on the December interest rate cut expectation and the dollar index remaining above 100, the copper price will likely fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum will maintain a moderately strong long - term trend. In the short - term, weak fundamentals and a lower probability of a December interest rate cut have led to profit - taking by previous funds. It will likely consolidate with an overall higher price center. Alumina has seen price - increasing orders due to environmental restrictions and short - covering, but it is still in an oversupply situation. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up characteristics to Shanghai aluminum and strong downside support [37][38]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of an interest rate cut has cooled. In terms of fundamentals, the smelting end is competing for ore, resulting in a significant decline in November TC. The smelting end's willingness to reduce or halt production has increased in November. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Currently, there are large differences between bulls and bears, and the bottom space can be observed at the end of the month [59]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has continued to decline, breaking below 900 and still falling due to weak downstream demand. Under the situation of a significant collapse in costs, the downside space for nickel and stainless steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless steel spot has high shipment pressure, and downstream purchasing willingness is low. Attention should be paid to the demand trend and Indonesian policy support expectations [75]. - **Tin**: Fundamentally, there is some resumption of production in Yunnan, but due to the lower - than - expected resumption of production in Wa State, the import of concentrate has sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. In the short - term, it is difficult to solve the raw material problem on the supply side, and Shanghai tin will maintain a high - level shock, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [88]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: This week, lithium carbonate production and inventory showed the characteristic of "increasing production and reducing inventory", but the inventory reduction process has significantly slowed down. High prices have weakened downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory, suppressing price increases. Technically, the futures price faces a key pressure level of 100,000 yuan, with limited short - term upward momentum and significant callback risks [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: For industrial silicon, considering supply - demand and technical factors, the price has strong downside support and limited downward space. For polysilicon, policy - driven short - term stimulation coexists with a weak fundamental situation, and the price increase is limited due to insufficient demand support [115]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: Medium - to long - term upward trend; short - term fluctuation and adjustment with possible range narrowing [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, including price trends, spreads, and relationships with other factors such as the US dollar index and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][9][12]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Likely to fluctuate around 86,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai copper main contract is at 85,660 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.55% [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and premiums are presented. For example, the Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is at 85,815 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.72% [23]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss and copper concentrate TC data are given. The current copper import profit and loss is - 488.26 yuan/ton, with a daily change rate of 82.21% [28]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are provided. The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 49,790 tons, with a daily decline of 9.44% [33]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term with a higher price center; alumina is in an oversupply situation [37]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London aluminum and alumina futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai aluminum main contract is at 21,340 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.88% [39]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic aluminum spot prices, premiums, and spreads are presented. For example, the East China aluminum price is at 21,380 yuan/ton, with a daily change rate of 9.09% [46]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London aluminum and alumina warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts are 69,283 tons, with a daily decline of 0.18% [53]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: Uncertainty exists due to cooling interest rate cut expectations and supply - side issues. Observe export and macro factors and the bottom space at the end of the month [59]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London zinc futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai zinc main contract is at 22,395 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.07% [60]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic and international zinc spot prices and premiums are presented. For example, the SMM 0 zinc average price is at 22,440 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04% [68]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London zinc warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 72,897 tons, with a daily decline of 1.05% [72]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Outlook**: Ferronickel prices are falling, and the downside space for nickel and stainless steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless steel has high shipment pressure [75]. - **Futures and Related Data**: The latest prices, changes, trading volumes, open interests, and warehouse receipt data of Shanghai and London nickel and stainless steel futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai nickel main contract is at 114,050 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1% [76]. - **Downstream Data**: Data on nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profit margins are presented, such as the price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) and the profit margin of China's integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel [80][83]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai tin will maintain a high - level shock, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [88]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai tin main contract is at 290,740 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.44% [89]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various tin spot prices are presented. For example, the Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot is at 291,300 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.07% [93]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London tin warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai tin warehouse receipts are 5,906 tons, with a daily decline of 1.42% [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: The "increasing production and reducing inventory" process has slowed down. High prices have suppressed downstream replenishment willingness. The futures price faces a key pressure level of 100,000 yuan, with limited short - term upward space [104]. - **Futures Data**: The latest closing prices, daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided, along with data on spreads between different contracts [105][107]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily and weekly changes of various lithium - related spot prices are presented, such as the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price at 92,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.1% [109]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate exchange inventory, including warehouse receipts, social inventory, smelter inventory, and downstream inventory, are provided [113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: Industrial silicon has strong downside support and limited downward space. Polysilicon has limited upside space due to weak fundamentals [115]. - **Industrial Silicon Spot Data**: The latest prices of various industrial silicon products in different regions and their basis data are provided. For example, the East China 553 industrial silicon is at 9,550 yuan/ton [116]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures are provided. For example, the industrial silicon main contract is at 8,960 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.27% [117]. - **Polysilicon and Related Product Data**: Price data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products, as well as inventory and production data of the industry chain, are presented [125][136].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US September non - farm data was mixed, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, and the market's expectation of a December rate cut was further dampened. The Fed's internal differences persisted, and the overall tone was hawkish. The risk appetite was generally weak. Domestically, the A - share market fell across the board with shrinking trading volume, and the bond market showed a differentiated trend [2][3]. - For precious metals, the strong non - farm employment data and the strengthening of the US dollar index and the cooling of the Fed's rate - cut expectation put double pressure on the prices of gold and silver, and they were in a stage of adjustment [4][5]. - For copper, the rebound of the US dollar index led to an adjustment of copper prices. The macro situation and industrial fundamentals jointly affected the market, and it was expected that the short - term adjustment would continue [6][7]. - For aluminum, the strong non - farm data in the US weakened the possibility of a December rate cut by the Fed, and the aluminum price was suppressed. Although the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased significantly this week, it was difficult to sustain the continuous decline, and the Shanghai aluminum would fluctuate and consolidate [8][9]. - For other metals such as zinc, lead, tin, etc., they were all affected by factors such as macro data, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy expectations, showing different price trends such as wide - range fluctuations and shocks [12][16][18]. - For industrial products such as industrial silicon, soda ash, glass, and steel products, they were affected by factors such as production, inventory, and market demand, and their prices generally showed a trend of shock [19][25][27]. - For agricultural products such as soybean meal, palm oil, etc., they were affected by factors such as international trade, production progress, and policy expectations, and their prices fluctuated [30][34]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, reaching a four - year high. The August data was revised downward to negative growth. The economic data failed to eliminate the uncertainty of the December FOMC. Multiple Fed officials focused on financial stability and high - valuation risks, with a generally hawkish tone. The market currently priced the probability of no rate cut in December at about 60%. The stock market had a sharp intraday reversal, the US dollar index fluctuated around 100, the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined, and gold, copper, and oil slightly closed down [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market opened higher and closed lower, with the trading volume of the two markets shrinking to 1.72 trillion. The ChiNext and STAR Market led the decline. The debt market showed a differentiated trend. The long - term interest rate rose, and the short - term interest rate declined. There was a risk of a phased correction in the A - share market, and the debt market might fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures prices slightly corrected. The strengthening of the US dollar index and the cooling of the Fed's rate - cut expectation put double pressure on precious metal prices. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed increased differences among policymakers on a December rate cut. The US September non - farm employment data was strong, but the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly. The probability of a December rate cut was low. The US Department of Labor will combine and release the October and November employment data on December 16. It was maintained that the prices of gold and silver were in a stage of adjustment [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, and LME copper adjusted downward. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper cooled down, and the downstream mainly made rigid purchases due to high prices. The LME inventory rose to 158,000 tons. The September non - farm employment data in the US exceeded expectations, which further suppressed the expectation of a December rate cut. The WBMS data showed a shortage of 81,000 tons of global refined copper supply in September, and China's imports of refined copper in October decreased by 22.1% year - on - year. It was expected that the copper price would continue to adjust in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,550 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The LME aluminum closed at $2,806.5/ton, down 0.28%. The strong non - farm growth in the US in September weakened the possibility of a December rate cut by the Fed, and the US dollar index rebounded strongly, putting pressure on the aluminum price. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased significantly this week, mainly because the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices increased due to the decline in the absolute price. However, it was difficult to sustain the continuous decline as consumption entered the off - season. The Shanghai aluminum would fluctuate and consolidate [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,737 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The overall supply of alumina was still in excess, the tender purchase price of upstream electrolytic aluminum plants continued to decline, driving the spot price down. The market was dominated by a bearish atmosphere and continued to operate weakly [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,810 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The cost of cast aluminum was affected by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand side still had resilience. The rigid demand procurement would support the price at the bottom, and the price of ADC12 might stabilize and fluctuate in the short term [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated horizontally during the day and opened higher at night. The inventory of zinc ingots decreased. The import volume of zinc ore and refined zinc in October decreased compared with the previous month. The LME inventory increased since early November, and the risk of a short squeeze decreased. The zinc price lacked a trend and maintained a wide - range fluctuation [12][13][14]. 3.8 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated weakly. The import volume of lead concentrate in October decreased compared with the previous month. The social inventory decreased slightly this week. After the delivery of the current - month contract, the domestic social inventory first increased and then decreased, and the absolute inventory was still low. The supply in some regions was tight, but the demand was difficult to boost. It was expected that the lead price would maintain a shock - adjustment trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.9 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated weakly during the day and opened slightly higher at night. The overseas tin mine复产 was slow, the domestic tin ore import volume in October still had a large year - on - year decline, and the raw material gap still existed, which restricted the release of refined tin production. The performance of NVIDIA exceeded expectations, and the AI demand still had room for imagination. However, in the short term, the Fed was likely to keep the interest rate unchanged in December, and the tin price would maintain a high - level wide - range fluctuation [17][18]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply side was affected by the decline in production in the southwest region during the dry season, and the supply margin decreased. The demand side was affected by factors such as the weakening of the market sentiment of polysilicon and the over - supply of battery cells. The market sentiment was repeated, and it was expected that the industrial silicon price would fluctuate within a range in the short term [19][20]. 3.11 Carbonate Lithium - On Thursday, the price of carbonate lithium fluctuated widely, and the spot price rose. The exchange introduced a position - limit policy, which suppressed the bullish sentiment. The downstream purchasing was mainly for rigid demand, and the consumption still had an increase. The fundamental situation had not shown signs of weakness, but the bullish sentiment was cautious, and the lithium price might fluctuate widely [21][22]. 3.12 Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price was weak. The Fed officials' hawkish remarks dampened the expectation of a December rate cut. The cost of nickel ore remained high, squeezing the upstream profit. The demand for nickel sulfate entered the off - season, and the price declined. It was expected that the nickel price would fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the strength of cost support [23][24]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Thursday, the main contract of soda ash fluctuated, and the main contract of glass fluctuated weakly. The production of soda ash decreased, the opening rate declined, but the shipment volume increased, driving the inventory to decrease. The glass fundamentals were relatively weak, with the upstream opening rate decreasing and the enterprise inventory still accumulating. There were rumors that the real - estate industry might receive policy support, and it was expected that the prices would fluctuate at a low level [25][26]. 3.14 Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures fluctuated. The output and apparent demand of the five major steel products increased, and the inventory decline widened. However, the downstream steel entered the consumption off - season, the outdoor construction decreased, and the supply pressure of hot - rolled coils remained high. It was expected that the steel price would fluctuate [27]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron - ore futures fluctuated. The supply of iron ore was under pressure, and the demand side had a short - term recovery in iron - water production, but the medium - term production - reduction expectation remained unchanged. It was expected that the iron - ore price would fluctuate under pressure [28]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated weakly. The coking profit rebounded significantly this week, the demand for coking coal was restricted, and the mine production capacity utilization rate increased. It was expected that the prices would fluctuate weakly [29]. 3.17 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, soybean - meal and rapeseed - meal futures declined. China continued to purchase US soybeans, and the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans was lagging. The external - market price declined, and the import - cost support weakened. It was expected that the short - term soybean - meal price would fluctuate [30][31]. 3.18 Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm - oil futures declined. The US non - farm data was contradictory, the international oil price declined, the export demand of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of November decreased, and the sentiment of the US biodiesel policy cooled down. It was expected that the palm - oil price would fluctuate in the short term [32][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining at a loss. The market has reduced its bets on a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Fundamentally, downstream acceptance of high copper prices has increased, and demand is slowly recovering. However, the instability of domestic and international stock markets has dampened confidence in a significant rise in copper prices. The overall global visible inventory is still in a state of accumulation, approaching recent high levels, and the high copper prices have shown a suppressive effect on terminal copper use. Without unexpected events, copper prices are expected to show a high - level oscillating trend, with volatility likely to remain at a low level [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, while aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The alumina futures market has shown a narrow - range correction. With the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the market has been driven by long - position funds. However, due to fundamental support and environmental protection restrictions in the north, high prices have a significant suppressive effect on demand. Aluminum ingot destocking has been continuously hindered, and the proportion of molten aluminum has continued to decline. Aluminum prices continue to be strong but face resistance when rising. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum is expected to narrow [2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell slightly, while Shanghai nickel rose. In terms of inventory, both LME and SHFE inventories decreased. The nickel - iron to stainless - steel industrial chain is showing a weakening trend, with the stainless - steel market being sluggish. In the new energy industrial chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming apparent, and nickel prices are still running weakly, but attention should be paid to macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The US Department of Labor will not release the October non - farm payroll report, and the November report will be postponed. The Fed is divided on a December interest rate cut but almost unanimously agrees to end balance - sheet reduction. Copper demand is slowly recovering, but inventory accumulation and high prices may restrict future price increases. Without unexpected events, copper prices will oscillate at a high level with low volatility [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy have different trends. The alumina futures market has a narrow - range correction. The macro - sentiment is warming, but high prices suppress demand. Aluminum ingot destocking is difficult, and the proportion of molten aluminum is decreasing. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum [2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell slightly, and Shanghai nickel rose. Inventory decreased, the nickel - iron to stainless - steel industrial chain is weak, and the new energy industrial chain has raw material supply tightness. Primary nickel inventory pressure is high, and nickel prices are weak [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 19, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 115 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2522 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On November 19, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased. SHFE total inventory increased by 1564 tons, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On November 19, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 750 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 793 tons, and social nickel inventory increased by 3981 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: On November 19, 2025, the main settlement price increased by 0.3%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: On November 19, 2025, the main settlement price increased by 0.8%. SHFE inventory increased by 266 tons [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium and Discount**: There are charts showing the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - and Far - Month Spread**: There are charts showing the near - and far - month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: There are charts showing the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: There are charts showing the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: There are charts showing the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 4. Introduction of the Non - Ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a junior investment analyst of gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [50]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [51].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Likely to be strong [2] - Zinc: Likely to fluctuate within a range [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: Night trading saw a rise in copper prices. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment maintains positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Zinc: Night trading saw a decline in zinc prices. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 86,080 yuan/ton; domestic basis: 50 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 10,803 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 33.13 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 140,500 tons; LME inventory daily change: 4,450 tons [2] Aluminum - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 21,525 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 20 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,815 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 32.88 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 548,075 tons; LME inventory daily change: - 2,125 tons [2] Zinc - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 22,420 yuan/ton; domestic basis: 75 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,990 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: 152.14 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 43,525 tons; LME inventory daily change: 3,550 tons [2] Nickel - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 115,650 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 3,120 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 14,640 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 197.66 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 257,832 tons; LME inventory daily change: 138 tons [2] Lead - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 17,230 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 140 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,015 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 27.39 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 264,800 tons; LME inventory daily change: - 1,325 tons [2] Tin - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 293,370 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 1,950 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 36,945 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: 100.00 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 3,055 tons; LME inventory daily change: 0 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers short - term outlooks for various commodities, suggesting that most commodities are in a state of shock, with some showing specific trends such as pressure or potential rebounds [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has risen, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of shock adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: There is a lack of clear drivers, and prices are in a shock state, with a trend strength of 0 [2][9]. - **Zinc**: LME inventories are accumulating, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventories limit price declines, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - **Tin**: Prices have fallen from high levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina continues to face pressure, with a trend strength of - 1; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26][27]. Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are limited fundamental changes, and market sentiment changes should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0 [2][32]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The strategy is to short at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1; Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to when long - short arbitrage funds leave the market, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][36]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][39]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][42]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][49]. Forestry Products - **Log**: It is in a repeated shock state, with a trend strength not mentioned [2][51]. Chemicals - **Para - Xylene**: Supply contraction squeezes downstream profits [2][28]. - **PTA**: It is in a single - sided shock market, and chasing high prices is not recommended [2][28]. - **MEG**: New device production leads to continued inventory accumulation, and supply pressure remains [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is in a shock state [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has support during the shock [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a narrow - range shock [2][34]. - **PP**: Do not short in the short term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term trend [2][36]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][37]. - **Pulp**: It is in a shock state [2][38]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][40]. - **Methanol**: It is in a weak shock state, and the downward space is narrowing [2][41]. - **Urea**: It has support in the short - term shock [2][43]. - **Styrene**: Attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short - term shock [2][45]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][46]. - **LPG**: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [2][47]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are strong, and the futures market is in a bottom - range shock [2][47]. - **PVC**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][50]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night - session prices continued to correct, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil [2][51]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakness continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market remains at a high level [2][51]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [2][59]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is no driving force for a breakthrough, and it is mainly in a range - bound shock [2][59]. - **Soybean Meal**: It is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Corn**: It is in a shock state [2][63]. - **Sugar**: It is in a weak state [2][65]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices maintain a shock trend [2][66]. - **Eggs**: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse arbitrage pattern [2][68]. - **Pigs**: The cooling expectation has been realized, and the pressure is gradually being released [2][69]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the actions of oil mills [2][70].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Undergoing a period of fluctuating adjustment [2]. - Copper: Lacking a clear driving force, prices are oscillating [2]. - Zinc: LME inventories are accumulating [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventories are limiting price declines [2]. - Tin: Prices are falling from a high level [2]. - Aluminum: Trading within a range [2]. - Alumina: Continuing to face downward pressure [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support levels and are under pressure, moving in a volatile manner [2]. - Stainless steel: Weak market realities are suppressing steel prices, but the downside is not expected to be significant [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 937.00, with a daily increase of 2.01%, and the night - session closing price was 935.42, up 0.53%. Gold T + D closed at 934.28, up 2.05% daily, and 934.44 at night, up 0.39%. Comex Gold 2512 closed at 4078.30, up 0.27% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 239,515, an increase of 2,600 from the previous day, and the open interest was 82,838, a decrease of 8,034 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 90,426 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day, and Comex Gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) was 37,224,744, a decrease of 93,766 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cryptocurrencies tumbled during the session. The Fed meeting minutes showed a significant divide, with many believing it's inappropriate to cut rates in December, and some worried about a disorderly stock - market decline [4][7]. Silver - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 12141, up 3.81% daily, and the night - session closing price was 12035.00, up 0.63%. Silver T + D closed at 12150, up 3.78% daily, and 12038 at night, up 0.33%. Comex Silver 2512 closed at 51.065, up 1.04% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 98,089, an increase of 22,238 from the previous day, and the open interest was 59,430, a decrease of 2,902 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 547,685 kilograms, a decrease of 15986 from the previous day, and Comex Silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) was 465,535,121, a decrease of 4,000,330 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, including cryptocurrency drops and Fed meeting - related news [4][7]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 86,110, up 0.53% daily, and the night - session closing price was 86190, up 0.09%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading platform closed at 10,803, up 0.98% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 185,519, a decrease of 23,389 from the previous day, and the open interest was 527,120, an increase of 5,581. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading platform had a trading volume of 16,612, a decrease of 7,909, and an open interest of 317,000, a decrease of 2,389 [8]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory was 58,352, a decrease of 2,522 from the previous day, and LME Copper inventory was 157,875, an increase of 17,375. The cancellation - warrant ratio was 6.16%, a decrease of 0.19% [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed meeting showed a divide on December rate - cut expectations. Peru's copper production in September increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 240,995 tons. China's copper product output in October 2025 decreased by over 10% month - on - month [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22420, up 0.49%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - trading platform closed at 2990.5, up 0.03% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 91247, a decrease of 2222, and the open interest was 67487, a decrease of 14839. The LME Zinc trading volume was 14603, an increase of 3454, and the open interest was 224451, a decrease of 3059 [11]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 75314, a decrease of 1473, and LME Zinc inventory was 45075, an increase of 1550 [11]. - **News**: A report warns that the AI bubble may burst in 6 - 12 months. Morgan Stanley believes the power - equipment bull market is in the early - to - mid - stage [12]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17250, up 0.12%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - trading platform closed at 2027, down 0.56% [14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 46208, a decrease of 8860, and the open interest was 63895, a decrease of 5231. The LME Lead trading volume was 8497, a decrease of 383, and the open interest was 172614, an increase of 9150 [14]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory was 31206, a decrease of 1484, and LME Lead inventory was 264475, a decrease of 325 [14]. - **News**: Similar to other metals, including Fed meeting - related news [15]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 288,890, down 0.51%, and the night - session closing price was 291,890, up 0.68%. The LME Tin 3M electronic - trading platform closed at 36,860, down 0.11% [19]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 67,408, a decrease of 10,882, and the open interest was 27,950, a decrease of 3,954. The LME Tin 3M electronic - trading platform had a trading volume of 180, a decrease of 9, and an open interest of 13,988, an increase of 53 [19]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory was 6,062, a decrease of 37, and LME Tin inventory was 3,055, unchanged. The cancellation - warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, including cryptocurrency drops and Fed meeting - related news [19][20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21570, up 105 from the previous day. The LME Aluminum 3M closed at 2815, up 25. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2740, down 40. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20815, up 85 [23]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 202981, a decrease of 56481, and the open interest was 347833, a decrease of 8714. The LME Aluminum 3M trading volume was 22278, a decrease of 7841 [23]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: LME Aluminum cancellation - warrant ratio was 10.13%, up from 5.41%. The LME cash - 3M spread was - 28.05 [23]. - **News**: NVIDIA's revenue growth exceeded expectations. Fed Governor Milan called for reshaping bank regulations [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 115,650, up 810. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,335, down 30 [26]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 82,563, a decrease of 34,853, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 114,420, a decrease of 7,812 [26]. - **Industry Chain Data**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 897, down 3. The price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) from TISCO/Zhangpu was 13,250, down 100 [26]. - **News**: An Indonesian mining area was taken over due to violations. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [26][27].