Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, particularly following the release of the August CPI data, which has led to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below 4% for the first time since April 7 [2][4] - The expectation for a rate cut has been building since the June FOMC meeting, which indicated two potential cuts within the year, with August being a critical month for this development [4] - Market discussions are ongoing regarding whether the Federal Reserve will implement a 25 basis points (bp) or 50 bp cut, with a higher expectation for a 25 bp cut in September [4][5] Group 2 - Key economic indicators leading up to the anticipated rate cut include: 1. August non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations but showing a downward revision in previous values [5] 2. CPI remaining flat and below expectations, while PPI exceeded expectations [5] 3. Comments from Powell regarding "employment and inflation rebalancing" being interpreted as a hint towards a rate cut [5] 4. Continued decline in non-farm employment numbers and rising unemployment claims, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.3% [6][7] Group 3 - Historical analysis of asset price movements following rate cuts indicates that: 1. U.S. Treasury yields and term spreads tend to show a narrowing in short-term declines, with steepening term spreads and even increases in long-term yields [13] 2. Equity and commodity assets generally maintain upward trends or exhibit more positive momentum post-rate cuts [13] - The article provides a comparative analysis of asset performance before and after previous rate cuts, highlighting trends in various indices and commodities [14][16] Group 4 - The current market sentiment reflects a strong consensus on the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with risk assets already adjusting to expectations of liquidity easing [15] - The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate trajectory is crucial for multi-asset allocation, as it influences the outlook for various macroeconomic factors [17]