2025 年 8 月 25 日星期一 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 2 年期美债收益率跌 7.44 个基点报 3.707% 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 鲍威尔"加入"鸽派阵营 称经济风险为降息提供更充分理由 美国政府已持有英特尔 10%的股份 特朗普宣布对家具进口展开关税调查 惠誉确认美国"AA+"评级，展望稳定 加拿大将取消对多项美国产品的报复性关税 "小额豁免"暂停前多国停发美国包裹 今年 1-7 月全国吸收外资 4673.4 亿元人民币 快递费上涨广东、浙江电商客户单价率先调价 中国光伏行业协会倡议进一步加强行业自律 特斯拉接入豆包和 DeepSeek 5 年期美债收益率跌 7.18 个基点报 3.769% 10 年期美债收益率跌 5.45 个基点报 4.261% 【新股资讯】 | 序号 | 招股日 | 代码 | 简称 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 2025-08-25 | 2580 | 奧克斯電氣 | | 资料来源：港交所、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 | | ...

Revenue Insights - In July, general public budget revenue reached 2.03 trillion, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, the first positive growth since the beginning of the year[3] - Monthly revenue growth rebounded significantly by 3.0 percentage points to a new high of 2.6%[3] - Tax revenue increased by 4.0 percentage points to 5.0%, the highest monthly figure since December of the previous year[3] Tax Contributions - The contribution of stamp duty saw a notable improvement, significantly influenced by favorable capital market performance in July[3] - Non-tax revenue continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 12.9%, exacerbating the overall revenue growth pressure[3] - Value-added tax contribution fell by 0.1 percentage points, highlighting ongoing domestic demand weakness and low inflation impact on corporate revenues[3] Fiscal Expenditure and Gaps - Fiscal expenditure in July rose by 2.7 percentage points to 3.0%, with most major expenditure areas showing varying degrees of increase[12] - The budget revenue-expenditure gap narrowed slightly to 2.49 trillion, but remains substantial, necessitating continued government bond financing[12] - Cumulative fiscal deficit from January to July expanded by 1.83 trillion, with government debt financing reaching 67.1% of the annual plan, significantly higher than the previous two years[26] Real Estate and Land Revenue - Government fund budget revenue fell sharply by 11.9% year-on-year to 8.9%, primarily due to a 14.7% drop in land transfer revenue[18] - The contribution of land transfer revenue to government fund budget revenue decreased by 11.1 percentage points to 5.3%[18] - The real estate market remains unstable, with significant imbalances in housing price-to-income ratios in major cities, affecting land market activity[18] Future Outlook - If domestic and external demand continues to decline, there is a pressing need for the central government to adopt a more aggressive fiscal expansion strategy[26] - The potential impact of new tariffs from the U.S. on exports necessitates ongoing monitoring of economic indicators[26] - The overall economic environment suggests that substantial improvements in fiscal revenue are unlikely in the coming months[3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Precious Metals Data Daily Report [4] - Date: August 11, 2025 [5] - Author: Baishuna from the Macro - Financial Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [5] Group 2: Price and Position Data Price Data - On August 8, 2025, COMEX silver was at $3394.74, London gold spot at $787.80, London silver spot at $38.57, COMEX gold at $9278.00, AG (T + D) at $783.43, AU (T + D) at $9238.00, AU2510 at $3499.20, and AG2510 at $38.30. Compared with August 7, the price increases were 0.2%, 0.5%, 1.2%, 0.6%, 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.3% respectively [5]. - The price differences and their increases or decreases between different markets and varieties are also presented, such as the gold internal - external market (TD - London) spread, COMEX gold - silver ratio, etc. For example, the gold internal - external market (TD - London) spread on August 8 was - 4.37 yuan/gram, with a 5.1% increase from the previous day [5]. Position Data - COMEX gold and silver non - commercial long and short positions, gold and silver ETF holdings, and their changes are provided. For example, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions on August 8 were 237050, a - 11.50% change from the previous day [5]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Index Data Inventory Data - COMEX and SHFE gold and silver inventories and their changes are given. For example, COMEX silver inventory on August 8 was 506492427 troy ounces, a - 0.22% change from the previous day [5]. Market Index Data - Data on US Treasury yields, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate, the S&P 500, NYMEX crude oil, the US dollar index, and VIX are presented, along with their changes. For example, the 2 - year US Treasury yield on August 8 was 7.14, a - 8.57% change from the previous day [5]. Group 4: Market News - US President Trump announced on August 8 that he will meet with Russian President Putin in Alaska on August 15, stating that the Ukraine situation may be resolved soon [5]. - Trump nominated Stephen Milan as a Federal Reserve governor, and the St. Louis Fed President supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged last week [5]. - The US Customs and Border Protection initially ruled that 1 - kilogram and 100 - ounce gold bars should be taxed, but the Trump administration will issue a new policy clarifying that gold bar imports should not be taxed [5]. - The Israeli government approved a plan to occupy the Gaza Strip after a 10 - hour discussion [5]. Group 5: Market Analysis Short - term Logic - On August 8, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.56% to 787.8 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 0.84% to 9278 yuan/kilogram [5]. - Short - term factors affecting precious metal prices include potential additional US tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, nominations of Federal Reserve officials, China's central bank's continuous gold purchases for 9 months, upcoming US - Russia leader meetings, and the clarification of gold bar import tariffs. The short - term upward momentum of gold prices may be limited, but the Fed's high probability of cutting interest rates in August and tariff uncertainties are expected to support gold prices at a high level. Silver prices may continue to be strong in the short - term but should be cautious about the upside in the medium - term [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - The Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified major - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases are expected to continue, and the medium - and long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 4, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.36% to 781.42 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.3% to 9039 yuan/kilogram [4]. - The significantly lower-than-expected non - farm payrolls in the US in July, along with the revised reduction of 258,000 jobs in May and June, highlight the sharp slowdown risk in the US labor market. Coupled with the July ISM manufacturing PMI being lower than expected and in the contraction range for five consecutive months, it triggers new concerns about a US economic recession, leading to a sudden increase in the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The market currently expects an 80% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which drives the strong rebound of precious metal prices. Additionally, Trump's new round of tariffs on multiple countries and the poor US economic data boost market risk - aversion demand, supporting precious metal prices. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, which may continue to support the strong performance of gold prices. Silver generally follows gold but may perform weaker under the new economic recession concerns [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, there is still a certain probability of a Fed rate cut this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified major - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases continue, so the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 4, 2025, London gold spot was at $3360.20 per ounce, London silver spot at $37.22 per ounce, COMEX gold at $3413.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver at $37.26 per ounce. Compared with August 1, 2025, the price increases were 2.1%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 1.6% respectively. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed varying degrees of increase, with increases ranging from 1.3% to 1.4% [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: As of August 4, 2025, the spread between gold TD and SHFE active price was - 4.32 yuan/gram, and the spread between silver TD and SHFE active price was - 31 yuan/kilogram. Compared with August 1, 2025, the spreads had different degrees of change, with increases of 12.5% and 24.0% respectively [3]. Position Data - As of August 1, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 953.08 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 15056.66493 tons. Compared with July 31, 2025, they decreased by 0.15% and 0.04% respectively. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also showed different degrees of decline [3]. Inventory Data - On August 4, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 35889.00 kilograms, an increase of 0.40% compared with August 1, 2025. The SHFE silver inventory was 1174273.00 kilograms, a decrease of 0.82% compared with August 1, 2025. The COMEX gold and silver inventories also showed slight increases [3]. Other Market Data - As of August 4, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.69%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, the US dollar index was 98.69, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.14. Compared with August 1, 2025, they had different degrees of change, with the US dollar index decreasing by 0.14%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreasing by 3.20%, and the 2 - year US Treasury yield increasing by 21.89% [4].

黄金股ETF爆发。8月4日盘中，多只黄金股ETF表现强劲，截至下午收盘，国泰黄金股ETF领涨全市场 ETF，达5.04%，同期也有多只黄金股ETF涨超4%。国际金价方面，8月4日，伦敦金现、COMEX黄金 走势分化，但在前一个交易日，伦敦金现价格突破3360美元/盎司关口，COMEX黄金价格也突破3400美 元/盎司。 8月4日盘中，黄金股ETF大涨，国泰基金、工银瑞信、华夏基金、永赢基金旗下的黄金股ETF在早盘均 涨超3%，下午则延续上涨走势，均涨超4%。Wind数据显示，截至下午收盘，国泰黄金股ETF领涨全市 场ETF，达5.04%。同期，华夏黄金股ETF、工银瑞信黄金股ETF、永赢黄金股ETF分别收涨4.49%、 4.34%、4.28%，平安黄金股ETF也收涨3.94%。 若拉长时间至年内来看，Wind数据显示，截至8月4日，平安黄金股ETF、国泰黄金股ETF、工银瑞信黄 金股ETF、华夏黄金股ETF、永赢黄金股ETF今年以来均涨超30%，分别涨37.02%、38.42%、39.16%、 39.5%、39.79%。 若从场外产品表现来看，除上述产品及相关联接基金外，还有易方达中证沪港深黄金产业指数A/C ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to the resumption of Sino - US economic and trade meetings, mild market risk - aversion demand, unexpectedly strong growth of the US Q2 GDP, rebound of core PCE, and the largest increase in ADP employment in July since March, the US dollar index and Treasury yields are boosted, suppressing precious metal prices. Gold has fallen below the $3300/ounce mark since July 1st. As the tariff situation becomes clear and a series of important US data are released, for gold, it is advisable to gradually buy at low prices and lay out long - term positions; for silver, affected by the fading of the commodity rally sentiment, it may fluctuate in the short - term and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - In the long - term, there is still a certain probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying major - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, central banks' gold purchases continue, so the medium - and long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On July 30, 2025, compared with July 29, London gold spot rose 0.3% to $3326.07/ounce, London silver spot fell 0.1% to $38.04/ounce, COMEX gold rose 2.0% to $3380.50/ounce, COMEX silver fell 0.2% to $38.15/ounce, AU2510 rose 0.3% to 773.78 yuan/gram, AG2510 remained unchanged at 9192 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 0.2% to 769.42 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) fell 0.1% to 9158 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Spread and Ratio**: On July 30, 2025, compared with July 29, the spread of gold between domestic and foreign markets (TD - London) was - 4.36 yuan/gram (up 13.0%), the spread of silver between domestic and foreign markets (TD - London) was - 34 yuan/kilogram (up 25.9%), the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was 5.46 yuan/gram (up 11.4%), the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 634 yuan/kilogram (down 0.7%), the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 84.18 (up 0.3%), the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 88.61 (up 2.2%), AU2512 - 2510 was 1.98 yuan/gram (down 8.3%), and AG2512 - 2510 was 21 yuan/kilogram (up 5.0%) [3]. Position Data - As of July 22, 2025 (weekly data), compared with July 28, on July 29, the gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 956.23 tons, the silver ETF - SLV rose 0.09% to 15173.91673 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold rose 15.44% to 311949 contracts, the non - commercial short positions rose 3.15% to 58911 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions rose 18.73% to 253038 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver rose 0.77% to 85678 contracts, the non - commercial short positions fell 2.02% to 25058 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions rose 1.97% to 60620 contracts [3]. Inventory Data - On July 30, 2025, compared with July 29, SHFE gold inventory rose 7.03% to 33462 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory rose 0.27% to 1208094 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.35% to 38166532 ounces, and COMEX silver inventory rose 0.12% to 502296559 ounces [3]. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - On July 30, 2025, compared with July 29, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate fell 0.10% to 7.14, the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 98.92, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.28% to 3.86%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.81% to 4.34%, the VIX rose 6.32% to 15.98, the S&P 500 fell 0.30% to 6370.86, and NYMEX crude oil rose 3.39% to 69.25 [3]. Important News - Sino - US economic and trade talks are held in Stockholm, Sweden, and both sides will continue to promote the extension of the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's Q2 GDP increased 1.4% year - on - year, higher than the expected 1.2% [3]. - The US ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, the largest increase since March, exceeding the market expectation of 75,000 [3]. - Trump said that India will pay 25% tariffs and fines starting from August 1st due to its procurement from Russia [3]. - The preliminary annualized quarterly rate of the US Q2 real GDP was 3.6%, higher than the expected 2.4%; the preliminary annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index was 2.5%, higher than the expected 2.3%; the preliminary rate of real personal consumption expenditure was 1.4%, lower than the expected 1.5% [3]. - The Bank of Canada kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% for the third consecutive time, in line with market expectations [3].

Economic Data - The U.S. trade deficit in June narrowed to $86 billion, a decrease from previous figures[4] - India's preparation for potential U.S. tariffs ranging from 20% to 25% indicates significant trade tensions[4] - The IMF has raised China's economic growth forecast for this year by 0.8 percentage points[4] Market Performance - The average daily trading volume in Hong Kong's stock market increased by 118% year-on-year in the first half of the year[4] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 5.66 basis points to 3.867%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 8.75 basis points to 4.322%[4] Index Movements - The Nasdaq index closed at 21,098.29, down 0.38%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,632.99, down 0.46%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,524.45, down 0.15%[5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the market's risk - aversion demand has declined due to progress in tariff negotiations and the ECB's reduction of the September interest - rate cut expectation, as well as the Fed's likely on - hold stance in July, which suppresses precious metal prices. However, due to the uncertainty of tariff policies and the Fed's possible rate cut in August, precious metal prices may not continue to fall. Silver may run bearishly in the short - term due to the general decline in commodity sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - In the long - term, against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates within the year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the central banks' gold purchases continue, so the long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price and Spread Information - **Price**: On July 25, 2025, London gold spot was 3358.72, London silver spot was 774.70, AU (T + D) was 3360.30, COMEX silver was 9368.00, AG (T + D) was 773.17, COMEX gold was 9365.00, AU2508 was 39.30, and AG2508 was 39.08. Compared with July 24, the price changes were - 0.2%, - 0.2%, 0.1%, - 0.5%, - 0.1%, - 0.6%, 0.1%, - 0.2% respectively [3]. - **Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 1.53, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 1.95, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was 82.70, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 3. Compared with July 24, the spread changes were - 1.3%, - 1.7%, - 0.3%, - 2.1% respectively [3]. 3.2 Position and Inventory Information - **Position**: As of July 25, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions, non - commercial short positions, and non - commercial long positions were 15230.42858, 253038, 957.09 respectively; COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions, non - commercial short positions, and non - commercial long positions were 311949, 58911, 85678 respectively. The gold ETF - SPDR position was 25058, and the silver ETF - SLV position was 60620 [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 25, 2025, SHFE silver inventory was 500320749 kg, SHFE gold inventory was 37762394 kg, COMEX silver inventory was 30258.00 ounces, and COMEX gold inventory was 1187254.00 ounces. Compared with July 24, the inventory changes were 0.39%, 0.51%, - 0.12%, 3.07% respectively [3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - The US July Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024 and the first contraction since then, far below the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 62.9. The new orders index preliminary value dropped to 49.7, the lowest since December last year. However, the US July Markit services PMI preliminary value was 5.2, far exceeding expectations and the previous value, and the employment sub - index preliminary value rose to 52.6 [3]. - The US June durable goods orders preliminary month - on - month value was + 9.3%, higher than the expected - 0.7% [3]. 3.4 Other News - Trump said he thought Powell would cut interest rates, had a good talk with Powell about interest rates, and that the economic situation was good [3]. - On July 26, the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia entered the third day, causing hundreds of casualties [3]. - Trump said he would issue nearly 200 tariff letters with tariff rates of 10% or 15%, was unclear about the prospects of a US - EU agreement, and might impose tariffs on Canada directly. He also said more fine - tuning would be done on the US - UK trade agreement, but there was little room for negotiation on steel and aluminum [3]. 3.5 Market Performance - On July 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.88% to 777.32 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.31% to 9392 yuan/kg [3].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of London gold is $3349.42 per ounce, showing a year-on-year increase of $10.43, which is a 0.31% rise [1] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to geopolitical tensions, increased economic uncertainty, and central bank purchases supporting gold prices [1] - Conversely, the volatility of the US dollar index and changes in market risk appetite are also favorable for gold prices [1] Group 2: Indonesia-US Trade Agreement - Indonesia is in the process of negotiating the details of a new trade agreement with the United States, following a reduction in the tariff rate from 32% to 19% [2] - Indonesia is seeking exemptions for its exports of palm oil and nickel, along with other products such as cocoa, rubber, and coffee [2] - The US Treasury Secretary indicated the possibility of reaching a "good agreement" with Indonesia [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are showing a narrowing opening, with gold prices operating above the middle band, indicating a rebound from oversold conditions [3] - The MACD indicator is showing signs of a potential bullish crossover, while the RSI is rebounding from oversold levels, suggesting strong bullish momentum [3] - On the hourly chart, gold prices are supported by the lower Bollinger Band and are experiencing a significant rebound, with key support at $3310 and resistance at $3380 [3]