资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 2026 年 3 月 3 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 证 券 研 究 报 告 美上诉院驳回特朗普政府推迟关税退税请求 伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡，将打击所有试图通过的船只 中东冲突引爆航运成本：油轮日租金飙至 42.4 万美元，创 历史新高 天然气飙涨近 50%，全球最大 LNG 生产商卡塔尔能源遇袭 停产 全球最佳退休养老国家排行榜：挪威蝉联第一，美国跌至第 21 位 马斯克：不必为 AI 失业焦虑 10 年内上班将全凭自愿 欧元区货币市场交易员几乎已排除欧洲央行在 2026 年降息 的可能性 1 月全国共销售彩票 552.46 亿元，同比增 13.9% 英伟达将向 Lumentum、Coherent 分别投资 20 亿美元 MINIMAX 2025 年收入同比增 158.9% 2 年期美债收益率涨 10.23 个基点报 3.475% 5 年期美债收益率涨 11.03 个基点报 3.610% 10 年期美债收益率涨 9.14 个基点报 4.036% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市 ...

2026 年 3 月 2 日星期一 【实时热点】 证 券 研 【美国债市】 究 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 报 请务必阅读免责条款 告 1 | 内地重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4162.88 | 0.39 | | 深证综指 | 2763.59 | 0.30 | | 沪深300 | 4710.65 | -0.34 | | 创业板指 | 3310.30 | -1.04 | 资料来源：Wind、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 美国总统特朗普：对伊朗军事行动可能持续 4 周 美以军事打击伊朗，霍尔木兹海峡航运停摆 欧佩克+确认 4 月增产石油 20.6 万桶/日 美国 1 月 PPI 超预期加速 时隔近 3 年半再次出手，央行下调外汇风险准备金率至零 证监会发布《私募投资基金信息披露监督管理办法》 造车新势力 2 月销量遇冷：零跑、理想及蔚来重回月销 2 万 辆"起跑线" 出境游价格大跳水部分线路降幅达 30% SpaceX 据悉考虑最快 3 月秘密递交美国 IPO 申请 OpenAI 宣 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月28日 多资产周报 "暴走"的汇率 核心观点 经济研究·宏观周报 | 证券分析师：邵兴宇 证券分析师：田地 | | --- | | 010-88005483 0755-81982035 | | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cntiandi2@guosen.com.cn | S0980523070001 S0980524090003 "暴走"的汇率。春节前后，人民币汇率显著走强，特别是节后日均升 幅一度达到 239 个基点，在短短几天内连续跌破 6.85、6.80 等关键心 理关口。从原因来看，春节错位所带来的结汇需求在近期集中爆发。2026 年 1、2 月份的工作日分布不均，导致大量本该分散在年初的报关和结 汇需求，在 2 月下旬集中爆发。同时，过去 2-3 年，由于各种因素，约 有 1 万亿美元的出口创汇资金留存在海外账户。人民币汇率短时间内的 快速上涨，触发了这部分巨量资金的"避险式结汇"，形成了所谓的"羊 群效应"。此外，金融机构在处理企业的结汇套保业务时，往往处于汇 率空头地位。随着升值预期转强，机构为了对冲风险，必须在即期市场 回补人民币，这进一步放 ...

记者丨刘雪莹 吴斌 编辑丨曾静娇 北京时间2月27日晚，美股三大指数集体走低，三大指数均跌超1%。 大型科技股多数下跌，截至22:42，甲骨文、赛富时跌超4%；美股科技七巨头全线飘绿，英伟达、微软 跌超2%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 苹果(APPLE) | 269.160 | -1.39% | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 206.240 | -0.81% | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-C | 306.280 | -0.28% | | 脸书(META PLATFORMS) | 641.605 | -2.34% | | 微软(MICROSOFT) | 393.080 | -2.15% | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 180.740 | -2.24% | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 403.905 | -1.14% | 半导体股集体走低，费城半导体指数领跌市场，蓝博士半导体跌超5%，博通、格芯跌超2%。 云基础设施提供商CoreWeave跌超17%，创去年8月以来最大跌幅，巨额资本开支引发投资者担 忧。 多邻国股价一度跌22%，创下2023年2月 ...

ITC国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0013700 | | | 2026/2/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2604 | AG2604 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 - | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格最紧 | 2026/2/25 | 5193. 14 | 90. 58 | 5212.00 | 90. 46 | 1151.06 | 23029.00 | 1147.40 | 22105.00 | | (本表数 | 2026/2/24 | 5170. 63 | 87 ...

Core Insights - Global capital markets experienced a majority increase during the Spring Festival holiday, with indices in countries like South Korea, the UK, and France reaching historical highs [1] - The situation surrounding Trump's tariffs remains uncertain, and the outlook for US-Iran conflict appears increasingly pessimistic, contributing to significant rises in international gold, silver, and oil prices, with silver increasing nearly 17% [1] Market Performance Summary - **Dow Jones Index**: Decreased by 1.31% from 49,451.98 to 48,804.06 [2] - **Nasdaq Index**: Slight increase of 0.13% from 22,597.15 to 22,627.27 [2] - **S&P 500 Index**: Marginal increase of 0.07% from 6,832.76 to 6,837.75 [2] - **Hang Seng Index**: Increased by 2.30% from 26,472.19 to 27,081.93 [2] - **Hang Seng Tech Index**: Increased by 1.11% from 5,326.23 to 5,385.35 [2] - **Nikkei 225 Index**: Decreased by 0.20% from 56,941.97 to 56,825.70 [2] - **KOSPI (Korea Composite Index)**: Increased by 6.16% from 5,507.03 to 5,846.09, reaching a new high [2] - **DAX (Germany)**: Increased by 0.54% from 24,852.69 to 24,986.58 [2] - **CAC 40 (France)**: Increased by 1.90% from 8,340.56 to 8,499.01, briefly reaching a new high [2] - **FTSE 100 (UK)**: Increased by 2.71% from 10,402.44 to 10,684.74, briefly reaching a new high [2] Commodity Price Changes - **London Gold Spot**: Increased by 5.87% from 4,946.12 to 5,236.38 [2] - **London Silver Spot**: Increased by 16.81% from 76.11 to 88.91 [2] - **ICE Brent Crude Oil**: Increased by 5.48% from 67.54 to 71.24 [2] - **WTI Crude Oil**: Increased by 6.05% from 62.65 to 66.44 [2] Futures and Cryptocurrency - **A50 Futures**: Increased by 1.00% from 14,719.00 to 14,866.00 [2] - **Bitcoin**: Decreased by 6.74% from 69,129.99 to 64,473.14 [2]

Group 1 - The global precious metals market is experiencing high volatility with gold prices stabilizing above $5,150 per ounce and silver showing slight corrections, influenced by Federal Reserve policy signals and geopolitical risks [1][3] - As of February 23, gold was reported at $5,152.02 per ounce, down $12.61, with a daily high of $5,164.63, while silver was at $86.797 per ounce, down $0.196, with a peak increase of 2.22% during the day [3] - The domestic physical gold market shows a clear divergence, with major retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang maintaining gold prices at 1,560.0 CNY per gram, while other retailers like Chow Sang Sang and King Fook experienced price declines [4] Group 2 - The futures market is underperforming compared to the spot market, with significant declines in futures prices attributed to strong signals from the Federal Reserve indicating no interest rate cuts in the short term, leading to profit-taking in precious metal futures [3][5] - The price of gold T+D in the domestic market was reported at 1,108.5 CNY per gram, down 16.55 CNY, while silver T+D was at 19,270 CNY per kilogram, down 649 CNY, reflecting a downward trend [3] - Experts indicate that the core logic behind the high volatility in the precious metals market is the interplay between risk aversion and Federal Reserve policies [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that both gold and silver prices have seen significant increases, with gold rising to $5147.760 per ounce, up 0.72%, and silver reaching $86.979 per ounce, up 2.85% [1][3]. - The opening price for gold was $5108.140, with a daily high of $5171.920 and a low of $5097.720, reflecting a trading range of 1.45% [2]. - For silver, the opening price was $84.690, with a daily high of $87.269 and a low of $84.569, showing a trading range of 3.19% [3]. Group 2 - Institutions remain optimistic about the future of gold prices, with ANZ Bank predicting a rise to $5800 per ounce in the second quarter of this year [3]. - China Merchants Bank Capital Market Research Institute has a more aggressive forecast, suggesting that gold prices could challenge $6500 per ounce this year, driven by a focus on the reconstruction of dollar credit and global order [3].

Group 1 - The international precious metals futures prices have generally declined, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 2.33% to $4896.10 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling by 3.93% to $73.55 per ounce [1] - Spot gold decreased by 2.33% to $4878.89 per ounce, while spot silver fell by 4.16% to $73.50 per ounce [1] - This morning, some precious metal prices continue to show a trend of fluctuating declines [1] Group 2 - Current prices for London gold and silver are reported at 4875.790 and 73.432 respectively, with slight changes of -0.02% and -0.08% [2] - COMEX gold is priced at 4887.1, reflecting a decrease of 0.38% [2] - COMEX silver is at 73.400, down by 0.19%, while SHFE gold and silver are reported at 1110.10 and 19782 respectively, with declines of 1.61% and 5.52% [2]

Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index opened high, expanding gains over 1%, and as of the report, it was up by 666 points, reaching 57,232.49 points [1] - The South Korean stock market was closed due to the Lunar New Year holiday [1] Currency Exchange - The Japanese yen saw a short-term rise, with the USD/JPY exchange rate reported at 153.483 [1][2] - The USD/JPY experienced a change of +0.196, or +0.13%, from the previous close of 153.287 [2] Government Changes - On February 18, the entire cabinet of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida resigned, and a new prime minister will be elected in the afternoon session of the Japanese Diet [1] Bond Market - Japanese government bond yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping to 2.114% and the 30-year yield falling to 3.392% [3][4] Precious Metals - International precious metals saw a strong rally after a low opening, with spot gold reaching up to $4,900, marking a 0.43% increase [4][5] - Spot silver initially dropped over 1.6% but later reported a slight increase of 0.15%, currently at $73.6 per ounce [4][6] Trade Balance - Japan's Ministry of Finance reported a trade deficit of 1,152.6 billion yen for January [6]