伦敦金现
Search documents
贵金属数据日报-20260401
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 09:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, precious metal prices are expected to show a range - bound oscillation due to the repeated geopolitical news and the risk of further escalation of the Middle East conflict. However, they are likely to gradually build a bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, the supporting factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, the huge US debt, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases remain solid. As factors like geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metal market is expected to emerge from the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. Investors are advised to seize the long - term layout opportunity during this deep adjustment [6] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On March 31, 2026, London gold spot was at $4557.00 per ounce, London silver spot at $72.02 per ounce, COMEX gold at $4586.90 per ounce, COMEX silver at $72.20 per ounce, AU2606 at 1020.10 yuan per gram, AG2606 at 18126 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) at 1016.58 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) at 18052 yuan per kilogram. Compared with March 30, 2026, the price increases were 0.6%, 2.4%, 0.7%, 2.6%, 0.5%, 2.4%, 0.6%, and 2.1% respectively [5] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On March 31, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.52 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 74 yuan per kilogram, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 2.81 yuan per gram, the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 46 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 56.28, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 63.53, AU2608 - 2606 was 3.04 yuan per gram, and AG2608 - 2606 was - 12 yuan per kilogram. Compared with March 30, 2026, the changes were - 26.1%, 196.0%, 28.2%, - 2003.6%, - 1.8%, - 1.9%, 19.7%, and - 52.0% respectively [5] 3.2 Position Data - **ETF Positions**: On March 30, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1046.13 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 15288.3594 tons. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were - 0.33% and - 0.79% respectively [5] - **COMEX Non - commercial Positions**: As of March 24, 2026, the COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 220861 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 52534 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 168327 contracts. The COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 33938 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 9265 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 24673 contracts. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were 2.27%, - 6.34%, 5.29%, 9.04%, 0.23%, and 12.76% respectively [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: On March 31, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory data was N/A, and the SHFE silver inventory data was N/A [5] - **COMEX Inventory**: On March 30, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 31536505 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 327589421 troy ounces. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were - 0.56% and - 0.22% respectively [5] 3.4 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **Exchange Rates**: On March 31, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.92, with a change of - 0.04% compared with March 30, 2026 [5] - **Interest Rates and Stock Market**: On March 30, 2026, the US dollar index was 100.51, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.82%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, the VIX was 30.61, the S&P 500 was 6343.72, and NYMEX crude oil was $105.01. Compared with March 27, 2026, the changes were 0.33%, - 1.55%, - 2.03%, - 1.42%, - 0.39%, and 3.79% respectively [5] 3.5 Market Analysis - **Market Review**: On August 31, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.46% to 1020.1 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 3.41% to 18126 yuan per kilogram [5] - **Influence Analysis**: Fed Chairman Powell's statement eased short - term market concerns about interest rate hikes, causing the US dollar index and US bond yields to decline. The market trading logic shifted from inflation to stagflation, supporting precious metal prices. However, the Middle East geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, with the risk of further escalation, which may cause short - term suppression of precious metal prices [6] - **Future Market Analysis**: In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to oscillate within a range. In the long term, they are likely to gradually build a bottom and return to the long - term value center. Investors are advised to seize the long - term layout opportunity [6]
国元证券晨会纪要-20260330
Guoyuan Securities2· 2026-03-30 10:47
Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing frequency of attacks in Tehran, Iran, indicating a persistent and unresolved conflict situation [4] - It notes significant political events in the U.S., including a planned budget proposal by Trump and large-scale protests against his administration [4] - The report discusses the EU's consideration of imposing a windfall tax on energy companies, reflecting ongoing economic policy debates [4] Economic Data - China's industrial enterprises saw a profit increase of 15.2% in January-February [4] - The report provides various market indices, including the Baltic Dry Index at 2031.00, down 0.84%, and the Nasdaq Index at 20948.36, down 2.15% [5] - The report lists the performance of key indices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 45166.64, down 1.73%, and the S&P 500 at 6368.85, down 1.67% [5]
国元证券晨会纪要-20260326
Guoyuan Securities2· 2026-03-26 05:33
Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, which may impact global markets and investment strategies [4] - The US defense industry is responding to increased defense readiness demands by ramping up production [4] - The report notes significant fluctuations in bond yields, with the 2-year US Treasury yield rising by 0.28 basis points to 3.887% and the 10-year yield falling by 2.17 basis points to 4.332% [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index decreased by 2.36% to 1989.00, indicating a decline in shipping rates [5] - The Nasdaq Index rose by 0.77% to 21929.83, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.66% to 46429.49 [5] - Crude oil prices (ICE Brent) fell by 1.23% to $103.20, reflecting market volatility [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increased by 1.09% to 25335.95, showing positive market sentiment [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.30% to 3931.84, indicating a bullish trend in mainland markets [5]
贵金属数据日报-20260326
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 03:04
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With more news about US - Iran contact and negotiation, market panic has eased, core variable oil prices have not continued to rise significantly, and dollar liquidity tightening has also been alleviated, supporting the rebound of precious metal prices. However, as there is no substantial sign of easing in the Middle East geopolitical situation and the US is still deploying troops to the Middle East, the precious metal market may still fluctuate around geopolitical news in the short - term [4]. - In the short - term, as panic selling eases, precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and enter a wide - range shock. It is recommended to participate with a light position in the short - term. In the long - term, the deep adjustment of precious metal prices does not mean the end of the "bull market", and long - term support factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, the US huge debt, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases remain strong. As factors such as geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metal market is expected to get out of the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. Investors are advised to grasp the long - term layout opportunity during this deep adjustment [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 25, 2026, London gold spot was $4547.63/ounce, London silver spot was $73.15/ounce, COMEX gold was $4546.50/ounce, COMEX silver was $73.29/ounce, AU2604 was 1011.04 yuan/gram, AG2604 was 18174 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1010.69 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 18100 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 24, 2026, the price increases were 3.1%, 5.5%, 3.0%, 5.4%, 3.5%, 5.7%, 3.4%, and 6.3% respectively [3]. - Regarding price differences/ratios, on March 25, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 0.35 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 74 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external market (TD - London) price difference was 3.14 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external market (TD - London) price difference was - 189 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 55.63, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 62.04, AU2604 - 2602 was 2.92 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 63 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 24, 2026, the changes were - 229.6%, - 54.0%, - 1203.8%, - 37.0%, - 2.1%, - 2.3%, 15.9%, and - 42.7% respectively [3]. 2. Position Data - As of March 24, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1052.99 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15513.67372 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 215961 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 56092 contracts, the non - commercial net long position was 159869 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 31125 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 9244 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 21881 contracts. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were 0.03%, 0.00%, 0.24%, 7.22%, - 2.00%, - 6.55%, 5.91%, and - 10.97% respectively [3]. 3. Inventory Data - On March 25, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106743.00 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory was 376094.00 kilograms. Compared with March 24, 2026, the changes were 0.00% and 2.78% respectively. On March 24, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 32016435 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 331451807 troy ounces. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were - 0.05% and - 0.19% respectively [3]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 25, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.89. On March 24, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.23, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.90%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.39%, the VIX was 26.95, the S&P 500 was 6556.37, and NYWEX crude oil was 88.39. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were - 0.05%, 0.07%, 1.83%, 1.15%, 3.06%, - 0.37%, and - 0.54% respectively [3]. 5. Market Review - On March 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 3.55% to 1013.96 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 7.05% to 1811 yuan/kilogram [3]
贵金属数据日报-20260324
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 06:21
Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline in precious metal prices on March 23 was due to the continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, which led to high oil prices and market concerns about interest rate hikes, causing a sell - off in the precious metal market. However, as the market panic eased at night, precious metal prices rebounded [6]. - In the short term, with the temporary alleviation of market panic, precious metal prices are expected to stabilize, but the market may remain highly volatile due to the unstable Middle - East geopolitical situation, so investors are advised to trade with light positions. In the long term, the long - term allocation value of gold still exists, and central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which can support precious metal prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - On March 23, 2026, London gold spot was at $4211.63/ounce, London silver spot was at $62.72/ounce, COMEX gold was at $4215.50/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $62.96/ounce. Compared with March 20, 2026, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 9.8% - 9.9% and silver down about 12.2% - 12.5% [5]. - For domestic futures, AU2604 was at 940 yuan/gram and AG2604 was at 15498 yuan/kilogram on March 23, 2026, with a decline of about 9.5% and 12.5% respectively compared to March 20, 2026 [5]. Spread/Ratio - On March 23, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 1.01 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 134 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 20, 2026, the spreads increased, with the gold spread up 40.3% and the silver spread up 148.1% [5]. - The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 60.65 and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 66.96 on March 23, 2026, with increases of 3.4% and 2.7% respectively compared to March 20, 2026 [5]. Position Data - As of March 20, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1056.99 tons, with a decrease of 0.48% compared to March 19, 2026. The silver ETF - SLV was 15248.90453 tons, with an increase of 0.41% [5]. - For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the long - position quantity was 215961 contracts, the short - position quantity was 56092 contracts, and the net long - position quantity was 159869 contracts as of March 20, 2026. Compared with March 19, 2026, the long - position quantity increased by 0.24%, the short - position quantity increased by 7.22%, and the net long - position quantity decreased by 2.00% [5]. - For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the long - position quantity was 31125 contracts, the short - position quantity was 9244 contracts, and the net long - position quantity was 21881 contracts as of March 20, 2026. Compared with March 19, 2026, the long - position quantity decreased by 6.55%, the short - position quantity increased by 5.91%, and the net long - position quantity decreased by 10.97% [5]. Inventory Data - On March 23, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 106746.00 kilograms, with a decrease of 0.09% compared to March 20, 2026. SHFE silver inventory was 364549.00 kilograms, with an increase of 0.57% [5]. - On March 20, 2026, COMEX gold inventory was 32054275 troy ounces, with no change compared to March 19, 2026. COMEX silver inventory was 332695255 troy ounces, with a decrease of 0.59% [5]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 23, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.90, with an increase of 0.21% compared to March 20, 2026 [5]. - On March 20, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.51, with an increase of 0.33% compared to March 19, 2026. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, with an increase of 2.37%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.39%, with an increase of 3.29% [5]. - The VIX was 26.78 on March 20, 2026, with an increase of 11.31% compared to March 19, 2026. The S&P 500 was 6506.48, with a decrease of 1.51%, and NYMEX crude oil was 98.09, with an increase of 3.70% [5]. Market Review - On March 23, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 8.62% to 940 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 11.67% to 15411 yuan/kilogram [5]
金属周期品高频数据周报(2026.3.16-2026.3.22):伦敦金现价格本周环比-10.49%,SPDR黄金持仓本周环比-1.36%-20260323
EBSCN· 2026-03-23 07:29
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The London gold spot price has dropped significantly by 10.49% week-on-week, marking the largest weekly decline in six years, with the current price at $4,492 per ounce [10] - The financing environment index for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) is at 48.66 for February 2026, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3.20% [15] - The cumulative year-on-year sales area of commercial housing in China for January-February 2026 is down by 13.50% [18] Liquidity - The total liabilities of the Federal Reserve are reported at $6.61 trillion, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [10] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in February 2026 is -3.1 percentage points, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.0 percentage points [15] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The cumulative year-on-year new construction area of commercial housing for January-February 2026 is down by 23.10% [18] - The national average price index for cement has increased by 1.58% week-on-week, with a current operating rate of 46.95% [59] Industrial Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high of 78.25%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.54 percentage points [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is reported at 24,030 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 4.26% [9] Price Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is currently at 3.94, indicating a significant price relationship [3] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 90 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 40 yuan [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in February 2026 is at 45.00%, down by 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is at 1,120.61 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.52% [3] Valuation Levels - The CSI 300 index has decreased by 2.19%, with the steel and industrial metals sectors showing a PB ratio of 30.19% and 63.67% relative to the CSI 300 [4] - The current PB ratio for the steel sector is 0.49, which is near its historical high of 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals and steel sectors, while short-term observations should focus on oil price performance and steel production policies [4]
贵金属,全线暴跌
第一财经· 2026-03-23 07:08
Core Viewpoint - Precious metals experienced a significant decline on March 23, with spot gold dropping over 7% and spot silver falling over 9% [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Spot gold fell to $4168.355 per ounce, down $323.315, representing a decrease of 7.20% [2] - Spot silver decreased to $61.555 per ounce, down $6.342, reflecting a decline of 9.34% [2] - Spot platinum dropped over 7% to $1780 per ounce, down $145.80, which is a 7.57% decrease [3] - Spot palladium fell over 3% to $1356.09 per ounce, down $52.45, indicating a 3.72% decline [3] Group 2: Futures Market - COMEX gold prices decreased to $4253.4, down $321.5, which is a 7.03% drop [2] - COMEX silver prices fell to $62.215, down $7.449, representing a decline of 10.69% [2] - NYMEX platinum prices dropped to $1749.5, down $221.0, indicating an 11.22% decrease [3] - NYMEX palladium prices fell to $1343.50, down $101.70, reflecting a 7.04% decline [3]
大越期货贵金属周报-20260323
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 04:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation and oil prices continue to impact precious metal prices. High oil prices drive up inflation concerns and raise interest - rate hike expectations, leading to significant declines in gold and silver prices. The risk appetite has cooled, and financial assets have fallen across the board. Gold and silver are under significant downward pressure, and their prices are positively correlated with risk appetite [10]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle East impact, raised inflation expectations, and still expected one interest - rate cut this year. Central banks around the world have taken different stances in response to the situation, with some maintaining rates and adjusting their policy outlooks [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - Gold and silver prices dropped significantly: Shanghai Gold Futures (2604) fell 8.97%, COMEX Gold (2604) fell 11.26%, Shanghai Silver Futures (2606) fell 18.69%, and COMEX Silver (2605) fell 16.64%. The US dollar index declined 0.99%, and the RMB appreciated slightly by 0.02% [4][10]. - The US PPI far exceeded expectations, with the February PPI rising 0.7% month - on - month, far higher than the expected 0.3%, and 3.4% year - on - year, while the core PPI reached a one - year high of 3.9%, further compressing the Fed's room for interest - rate cuts this year [11]. - The Middle East situation remained tense. The South Pars Gas Field in Iran and some petrochemical facilities in Assaluyeh were attacked by the US and Israel. Qatar reported that the Iranian attacks damaged 17% of LNG production capacity. Oil prices fluctuated significantly [10][13]. 3.2 Weekly Review - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, with a 11 - 1 vote. Fed Governor Milan opposed the decision and advocated a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The Fed raised GDP and inflation expectations for this year and the next [10][11]. - The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged but warned about the impact of oil price hikes on inflation. The European Central Bank maintained rates at 2% for the sixth consecutive time, with a tougher policy stance. The Bank of England kept rates unchanged, removed the "rate - cut" wording, and signaled a possible rate hike [10][12]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The gold - to - silver ratio declined again, with the domestic gold - to - silver ratio returning to 59.98 [15]. - The US 10 - year Treasury yield fell below 4% [21]. 3.4 Position Data - For Shanghai Gold, the net long position continued to decrease, with more long - position cuts and short - position increases. For Shanghai Silver, the net long position continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [10]. - As of March 17, the CFTC net long position in gold increased slightly, with both long and short positions rising. The CFTC net long position in silver decreased, with more long - position cuts and short - position increases [10][27]. - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings continued to decline, and the silver ETF holdings also decreased significantly [30][32]. - Shanghai Gold inventory continued to increase, while COMEX Gold inventory continued to decrease. Shanghai Silver inventory stopped falling and rebounded, and COMEX Silver inventory continued to decline [34][36]. 3.5 Summary - High oil prices drive up interest - rate hike expectations, putting significant downward pressure on gold and silver, especially with the low risk appetite, the pressure on gold and silver continues to increase [10].
贵金属数据日报-20260323
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 04:02
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The short - term trading of the weakening of the market's loose expectations for major global central banks may continue due to the unresolved Middle - East geopolitical situation, suppressing precious metal prices. However, in the long - term, the allocation value of gold remains. Global central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which is expected to support precious metal prices. After recent shocks, the space for a significant decline in precious metal prices may be limited, and long - term long positions can be considered for allocation [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Tracking - On March 20, 2026, London gold spot was at $4673.91/ounce, London silver spot was at $71.68/ounce, COMEX gold was at $4675.70/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $71.70/ounce. Compared with March 19, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 1.9% and silver down about 0.8% - 4.0%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also declined, with AU2604 down 2.1% and AG2604 down 1.7% [3] - The price differences between domestic and foreign markets also changed significantly. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference decreased by 104.3% from March 19 to March 20 [3] 2. Position Data - As of March 20, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1056.99 tons, a decrease of 0.48% from March 19. The silver ETF - SLV was 15248.90453 tons, an increase of 0.41% [3] - For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the number of long positions increased by 0.24%, and the number of short positions increased by 7.22%. For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the number of long positions decreased by 2.00%, and the number of short positions increased by 5.91% [3] 3. Inventory Data - On March 20, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106845.00 kg, unchanged from March 19. The SHFE silver inventory was 362495.00 kg, a decrease of 0.65% [3] - The COMEX gold inventory was 32054275 troy ounces, unchanged, and the COMEX silver inventory was 332695255 troy ounces, a decrease of 0.59% [3] 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 20, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.89, a decrease of 0.11% from March 19. The US dollar index was 99.51, an increase of 0.33% [3] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, an increase of 2.37%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.4%, an increase of 3.29%. The VIX index increased by 11.31%, the S&P 500 decreased by 1.51%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 3.70% [3] 5. Market Review - On March 20, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 3.83% to 1039.22 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 6.25% to 17625 yuan/kg [3] 6. Impact Analysis - Affected by the continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, oil prices remained high. The market traded the logic that "rising oil prices weaken the expectation of interest rate cuts", leading to a panic of interest rate hike expectations, a liquidity shock in the capital market, and a continuous sharp decline in precious metal prices [4] - The market generally expects the European and British central banks to raise interest rates 2 - 3 times this year. Traders on Friday evening expected the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in October to be close to 50% and in December to be close to 100%. As a result, US Treasury yields rose significantly, and precious metal prices were further pressured [4] 7. Future Market Analysis - In the short term, as the Middle - East geopolitical situation shows no sign of easing, the trading of the weakening of the market's loose expectations for major global central banks may continue, and precious metal prices are expected to be under pressure [4] - In the long term, the allocation value of gold remains. Global central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which is expected to support precious metal prices. After recent shocks, the space for a significant decline in precious metal prices may be limited [4]
国泰海通香江策论之数据周报:伊朗局势高烧不退,海外流动性冲击开始:美股美债黄金齐跌-20260322
Haitong Securities International· 2026-03-22 10:01
Liquidity Data - The U.S. Dollar Index fell 1% from above 100 to 99.5[2] - Brent crude oil prices reached $104.4 per barrel[10] - Spot gold prices declined by 10.5% for the week, while silver dropped by 15.7%[10] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose sharply by 9.5 basis points to 4.37%[12] Selected Research Highlights - Oil prices surged past $105 per barrel due to transit disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz[31] - The geopolitical tensions have led to a re-evaluation of the strategic value of the Western nuclear power supply chain[31] - The U.S. consumer sector is facing stagflation risks as oil prices rise and employment data falls short of expectations[38] - Qatar's LNG exports have significantly decreased, contributing to high natural gas prices[57]