早盘速递 2025/11/26 热点资讯 1. 据环球网，外交部发言人毛宁表示，特朗普总统第二任期以来，中美元首保持着经常性的交往。据我了解，此次通话是美 方发起的，通话的氛围是积极的、友好的、建设性的。两国元首就共同关心的问题进行沟通，对中美关系稳定发展十分重要。 2. 马士基首席执行官表示，我们对加沙的和平进程感到鼓舞，巴布曼德海峡的航行自由已得到确立，贸易路线也已实现正常 化。对于马士基及其客户而言，苏伊士运河是连接各市场的首选通道。 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 日涨跌幅% | 月内涨跌幅% | 年内涨跌幅（%） | 近一年走势 | | | 上证指数 | 0.87 | -2.14 | 15.46 | | | | 上证50 | 0.60 | -1.44 | 10.56 | | | | 沪深300 | 0.95 | -3.24 | 14.12 | | | | 中证500 | 1.25 | -5.13 | 21.46 | | | 权益 | 标普500 | 0.91 | -1.09 | 15.03 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a rebound with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.97% to close at 25,716 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.79% to 9,079 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index climbing by 2.78% to 5,545 points, ending a streak of declines [1][2]. Sector Performance - Major technology stocks experienced a collective recovery, with Kuaishou rising over 7%, NetEase and Bilibili increasing over 5%, and Alibaba, Baidu, Meituan, Tencent, JD.com, and Xiaomi all showing gains [4][5]. - The defense sector saw significant gains, with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation surging nearly 13%, and other defense stocks like AVIC and Aerospace Holdings also rising [6][7]. - The biopharmaceutical sector performed well, with notable increases in companies such as Innovent Biologics and Hengrui Medicine, reflecting a growing interest in quality Chinese biotech firms [5][6]. Investment Insights - Analysts from Guotai Junan Securities noted that the AI wave is not over, and the inflow of new capital along with the gathering of quality assets may continue to support a bullish trend in the Hong Kong stock market [4]. - The real estate sector showed strength, with companies like Country Garden and China Overseas Development rising over 2%, as analysts remain optimistic about the recovery of core cities and the potential for value reassessment in commercial properties [7][8]. International Influences - Semiconductor and chip stocks faced downward pressure, particularly after news that the U.S. may allow the sale of Nvidia's H200 chips to China, impacting companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC [9][10]. - Oil stocks declined as international crude oil prices continued to fall, with major oil companies like CNOOC and PetroChina seeing losses due to ongoing market assessments of geopolitical developments [8][9]. Capital Flows - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 2.604 billion, indicating continued interest from mainland investors in Hong Kong stocks [10]. Future Outlook - China Galaxy Securities suggested that investor sentiment is heavily influenced by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, with a potential for continued volatility in the market [12].

Core Insights - The Hang Seng Index Company has evolved from a small service company to an international index provider, reflecting the growth of Hong Kong's financial market over more than half a century [1][2] - In 2025, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to rebound strongly, with IPO fundraising returning to the top globally and the Hang Seng Index experiencing a year-to-date increase of over 30% [1][2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index is projected to have an upward potential of approximately 7000 points in 2025, with the information technology sector contributing the most at around 2000 points, followed by finance and consumer sectors each contributing about 1900 points [2] - The healthcare sector, despite its 3% weight, is expected to contribute over 400 points, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index showing a year-to-date increase of over 73% [2] Index Reform and Composition - The Hang Seng Index has undergone significant reforms since its inception in 1969, expanding its constituent stocks from 33 to 88, with a market capitalization coverage of 66% [3][4] - The weight of the consumer sector in the index has increased by 15 percentage points to approximately 30%, while the financial sector's weight has decreased by 13 percentage points to around 30% [3] Product Development and Market Demand - There is a growing demand for thematic indices, particularly in technology and high-yield sectors, with the company launching 15 new indices in 2025, seven of which focus on yield and strategy [6] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen significant growth in overseas markets, with assets under management (AUM) in Europe and the US increasing threefold and fourfold, respectively [6] Global Market Engagement - The company has expanded its business to cover 37 markets globally, with a notable presence in Malaysia, where products tracking the Hang Seng Index account for 70% of the local market's turnover [8] - The company aims to enhance Hong Kong's role as a "super connector" by continuously seeking opportunities to launch index products that attract foreign investment [8] Investor Trends - The biotechnology sector has seen a surge in interest, driven by the mainland market, with the number of ETFs tracking this sector increasing from 8 to 13 and AUM doubling to 28 billion RMB [10][11] - There is a notable difference in investment focus between domestic and foreign investors, with overseas investors particularly interested in technology indices [13]

报告认为，若要进一步突破当前水平，市场需要应对以下因素：企业盈利质量与可持续性仍有待观察； 过去12个月估值显著上升，估值继续扩张的空间有限；全球宏观经济不确定性扩大，包括利率路径、地 缘政治及外部需求变化等。 【导读】摩根士丹利对中国股票的最新研判 11月17日，摩根士丹利发布最新研报，预计明年中国股市将取得温和涨幅。 摩根士丹利策略师在报告中写道，2026年的关键在于在多重内外部因素交织下维持市场动能。挑战包括 企业盈利质量及其可持续性、将持续到2026年的通缩压力，以及全球宏观经济的不确定性等。 摩根士丹利将2026年12月的主要股指目标定为：恒生指数27500点、国企指数9700点、沪深300指数4840 点。相较于11月17日收盘水平，这分别意味着约4%、4%和5%的上行空间。 研报写道，2026年将是今年大涨之后的企稳期。得益于投资者对中国科技发展前景的乐观预期，中国A 股的基准股指沪深300指数今年以来已上涨约17%，有望实现连续第二年上涨。 报告称："在盈利温和增长、估值在更高水平上企稳的背景下，中国在全球科技竞赛中重新站稳脚跟， 同时贸易紧张局势有所缓和，指数整体上行空间相对温和。" 摩根士 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利最新发布的展望报告指出，中国股市在2025年大幅走强后，预计2026年 将进入"稳步发展"阶段。受每股盈利增长温和、估值处于相对高位等因素影响，主要指数的上升空间或 有限。 摩根士丹利给予恒生指数(HSI)2026年底目标：基本情境：27,500点;乐观情境：34,700点;悲观情境： 18,700点。 MSCI中国指数2026年底目标：基本情境：90;乐观情境：114;悲观情境：58。 摩根士丹利指出，MSCI中国指数及恒生指数今年以来均上涨超过30%，表现居全球主要股市前列。这 反映出投资者对中国经济及企业盈利结构改善的积极预期。 报告认为，若要进一步突破当前水平，市场需要应对以下因素：企业盈利质量与可持续性仍有待观察; 过去12个月估值显著上升，估值继续扩张的空间有限;全球宏观经济不确定性扩大，包括利率路径、地 缘政治及外部需求变化等。 摩根士丹利表示，尽管短期挑战仍存，但预计中国市场将在2026年维持稳定且具可持续性的增长态势。 国企指数(HSCEI)2026年底目标：基本情境：9,700点;乐观情境：12,190点;悲观情境：6,670点。 沪深300指数(CSI 30 ...

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026 is optimistic, driven by fundamental improvements and the potential for AI industry catalysis, which may enhance the net asset return (ROE) of related sectors, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index [1][2][3]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded significantly since early 2024, with major indices reaching new highs in 2025. As of November 4, 2023, the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index have increased by 29.37%, 30.22%, and 25.83% respectively this year [1][2]. Market Adjustments - The market experienced notable adjustments in April and October 2023, leading to a high-level consolidation phase. Investors are particularly focused on whether the market can maintain its upward momentum and set new highs in 2026 [2][3]. Earnings Growth - It is predicted that the revenue growth rate for non-financial overseas Chinese companies will reach 4% in 2026, with operating profit growth expected to be 13%. This profit growth is attributed to cost reduction, efficiency improvements, and advancements in AI applications [2][3]. Valuation Insights - Current valuations of the Hong Kong stock market are considered low, especially in the technology sector, providing ample room for further upward movement. Historical comparisons indicate that the market is undervalued, suggesting significant potential for valuation recovery [3][4]. Capital Inflows - There is a high certainty of incremental capital inflows into the Hong Kong market in 2026, with net inflows from southbound funds exceeding 1.27 trillion HKD since 2025, marking a historical high. The inflow structure is expected to become more balanced [4][5]. Domestic and Foreign Investment - Domestic institutional investors, including public funds and insurance companies, are increasingly influencing the pricing power in the Hong Kong market. It is anticipated that net inflows from southbound funds could exceed 1.5 trillion RMB in 2026 [5][6]. Sector Focus - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI advancements, is expected to be the main focus for the Hong Kong market in 2026. Additionally, there is a recommendation to pay attention to innovative pharmaceuticals and brokerage firms, which are anticipated to perform well due to favorable market conditions [6].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 3.5% and 4.0% respectively in October, while the Hang Seng Composite Index dropped by 3.9% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index, which tracks leading technology companies in Hong Kong, experienced a significant decline of 8.6% [1] - The Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong 500 Index recorded a 1.7% decrease, and the Hang Seng A-Share 300 Index saw a slight decline of 0.1% [1] Sector Performance - The energy sector showed strong performance in October with a gain of 6.6%, while the healthcare sector performed poorly, declining by 11.0% [3] ESG Indices - The Hang Seng Sustainable Development Enterprises Index in Hong Kong had a relatively better performance with a decline of only 0.6%, whereas the Hang Seng A-Share Sustainable Development Enterprises Benchmark Index in mainland China showed a positive performance with an increase of 0.8% [5] Thematic Indices - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Mainland Banks Index performed well in Hong Kong with a gain of 4.5%, while the Hang Seng A-Share Power Grid Equipment Index also performed well in mainland China with an increase of 3.2% [7] Factor Indices - The Hang Seng Large and Mid-Cap Dividend Yield All-Select Index fell by 2.8%, but it outperformed other factor indices in the Hong Kong market [10] - The Hang Seng A-Share Value All-Select Index increased by 0.3%, and the Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Dividend Yield All-Select Index decreased by 0.7%, both showing better performance in their respective markets [10] - The Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Greater Bay Area Composite Index declined by 1.5% [10] Asset Management - As of October 31, the total assets under management for passive tracking products of the Hang Seng Index series amounted to approximately $114.7 billion, reflecting a decrease of 0.9% [10] - The assets under management for exchange-traded products linked to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index were approximately $24.4 billion (-10.5%), $6.8 billion (-0.4%), and $43.1 billion (+3.5%) respectively [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1 Commodities - Gold closed at 999.80 with a weekly increase of 10.90%, silver at 12249.00 with a 10.53% increase, and polycrystalline silicon at 52340.00 with a 6.89% increase. - Crude oil closed at 432.60 with a 6.34% decrease, glass at 1095.00 with a 9.28% decrease, and PTA at 4402.00 with a 2.91% decrease [2]. 2.2 A - shares - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4514.23 with a 2.22% decrease, the CSI 500 Index at 7016.07 with a 5.17% decrease, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index at 2967.77 with a 0.24% decrease [2]. 2.3 Overseas Stocks - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22679.97 with a 3.24% increase, the S&P 500 Index at 6664.01 with a 1.70% increase, and the Hang Seng Index at 25247.10 with a 3.97% decrease [2]. 2.4 Bonds - The yield of the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond was 1.50 with an increase of 1.25 bp, the 10 - year was 1.84 with a 0.5 bp decrease, and the 5 - year was 1.60 with a 0.13 bp increase [2]. 2.5 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index closed at 98.56 with a 0.27% decrease, the US dollar central parity rate at 7.09 with a 0.14% decrease, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate at 1.17 with a 0.24% increase [2]. 3. Commodity Views 3.1 Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Sino - US trade talks, Fed rate - cut expectations, potential RMB appreciation, stable market expectations, and improved domestic M1 growth [4]. - Bearish logic: Profit - taking in the technology sector, low risk appetite before Sino - US trade resolution, limited policy stimulus, and reduced A - share trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Weak economic data, loose liquidity, and market risk aversion [4]. - Bearish logic: Potential incremental policies, unimplemented domestic rate cuts, and possible recovery of risk assets [4]. 3.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Sino - US trade talks, approaching break - even price, undervalued fundamentals, and US strategic oil purchase [5]. - Bearish logic: Saudi production increase, EU's call for end of war, rising Russian exports, high US inventory, and expected supply surplus [5]. 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Limited production potential, policy plans, low import data, and stable spot prices [5]. - Bearish logic: Increased Malaysian production, falling oil prices, low cost - effectiveness, and weak market sentiment [5]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Fed rate - cut expectations, low supply, seasonal demand, long - term demand growth, and policy support [6]. - Bearish logic: Trade friction risks, hedging pressure, low market attention, and weak spot trading [6]. 3.5 Chemical Sector - **Glass** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Positive sentiment during meetings, cost support, reduced inventory, and policy expectations [6]. - Bearish logic: High intermediate inventory, unclear production - cut policies, low orders, and weak real - estate data [6]. 3.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Geopolitical tensions, Fed rate - cut expectations, repeated conflicts, and central bank gold purchases [7]. - Bearish logic: Reduced US banking concerns, short - term profit - taking, and a stronger US dollar [7]. 3.7 Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Safety inspections, supply disruptions, high iron - water production, and positive market sentiment [7]. - Bearish logic: Reduced steel - mill profits, stable supply, weak demand, and unclear trade friction [7].

Core Viewpoint - The current investment landscape is challenging due to anticipated interest rate cuts by central banks, high government debt levels, narrow credit spreads, and elevated stock valuations, leading to a complex decision-making environment for investors [2][11]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. government debt has reached $38 trillion, diminishing the appeal of sovereign bonds as a safe haven [1][2]. - Credit spreads are at a 20-year low, providing insufficient risk compensation for corporate bonds [2]. - The CAPE ratio for stocks is at a high of 40, indicating significant potential for market corrections [1][2]. Group 2: Fund Flows - There has been a substantial outflow from cash assets, totaling $24.6 billion, with $28.1 billion flowing into the stock market, particularly technology stocks which saw a record inflow of $10.4 billion in one week [3][5]. - The gold market has also experienced a surge, with a cumulative inflow of $34.2 billion over the past 10 weeks, marking a historical high [5]. - The Chinese stock market recorded its largest weekly inflow since April 2025, amounting to $13.4 billion, reflecting a strong risk appetite among investors [8]. Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The global stock market capitalization has increased by $20.8 trillion this year, driven by a wave of liquidity from the global interest rate cuts [10]. - There are emerging risks in the market, with potential impacts on the wealthy class if asset prices decline, leading to economic deterioration [11]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The strategy proposed by Hartnett includes maintaining a long position in long-term U.S. Treasuries, with expectations that the 30-year Treasury yield will fall below 4% [13]. - Hartnett is optimistic about international markets, predicting the Hang Seng Index will rise above 33,000 points, and expects a 9% growth in global EPS over the next 12 months [15]. - For gold, Hartnett maintains a bullish outlook, forecasting prices could exceed $6,000 per ounce by spring next year, despite current high positioning among fund managers [17][19].